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Hi Everyone
I’ve just got hold of a system called "Procalc 2002 computer Form Ratings.
It is run on a Psion,seems to be very good on the small amount of races I have run.
Is there anyone out there who knows about? As I’m not sure of some of the inputs.
Kind regards.
Kevin
Twinoaks,
I’d be interested to see more details. The main problem with many computerised systems is the time spent putting in data. This can be very tedious and is also not very educational because you are learning very little about racing as you do it. I’ve looked at several of these ‘input’ systems over the years and they nearly all suffer from this major fault.
Hi Artemis
Seems like no one can help me,so far!!
Anyway here a few of the inputs you have to put in.
First update top Trainers & Jockeys i.e. wins per runs.
They are in – 2yo – 3yo – 3yo plus – Hurdle – Chase.<br>Which is easy to do once a week via Weekender.
Next is Race info.<br>Name of Racecourse – <br>Time -<br>Date -<br>Number of runners -<br>Details of Race – ?????? could be prizemoney?<br>Type of Race – 2yo – 3yo – 3yo plus- Hurdle – Chase.
And for horse inputs.<br>Horse number -<br>Last two runs -<br>Numer of days since last run – 1-7, 8-14, 15-21,22-28,29-60 & 61+others<br>Previous winning form – none – Course Winner – Distance Winner – Course & Distance Winner-<br>Trainer -<br>Jockey -<br>Form Rating – ( I use RPR out of Racing Post) -<br>Starting prices.
Then when data is inputed, go to View Prediction. Which will then give you it’s rating an it’s price for the horse.<br> <br>There is also top tips, adjusting of baising, enter esults,edit runners,non runner and favs finished postion.
Well thats about all I can tell you.The only things that I’m not sure about are Details of race and Form rating. Which I’m sure is up to you, what rating you want to use.<br>You could always tinker about with the adjust biasing too.<br>I do find it quick to use, faster than a lot of racing software that I’ve used.Plus you can slip it into your pocket.
Well hope that helps you to understand it a bit more,Artemis. Look forward to any feedback from you.
Regards.
Kevin
<br>Next is inputs o
kevin,
It seems quite reasonable and doesn’t need as much input as many of the computer type race calculators I have tried. If you can use it quickly, that’s fine, but I think that it would be tedious if you were doing over four races a day. It’s the data for each horse that’s the crunch, especially if you have about 15 runners, and you need to do every runner to make it work. I’m pretty confident that you could make up your own method around the inputs mentioned in your post and come up with a decent winner-finding formula. One problem with doing it yourself, apart from having to jot a lot of things down, is that there will be no predicted odds to guide your betting. I wouldn’t worry too much about these odds, because most of these calculating systems produce unrealistic odds because they cannot cope with the variety of racing in this country and the algorithm they use is usually flawed. They have a certain appeal as being scientific and logical, but they are not always as good as they might be.
I hope you find out a bit more from somewhere. If you want any help with turning the inputs into a logical ratings scheme(which is basically all I’m doing using the RP), perhaps I could help.
Hello Everyone
I’ve not been around for awhile,no not been on Holidays or lodging at her Majesties pleasure!
To coming back to this thread, the biasing was the thing I could not work out.Well I tinkerd about with various combinations.
The elements are :-
Last two runs & no. of days.<br>Course and Distance.<br>Trainers.<br>Jockeys.<br>Form Ratings<br>Starting Prices.
What I’d like to know is what’s the general thoughts of you guys.Which of the elements do you think are of more importance?
Look forward to any replies an ideas you have.
Kind regards.
Kevin
Happy New Year, Kevin.
In order of importance, in my estimation:
Form ratings<br>jockeys<br>Last two runs & number of days<br>Course and Distance<br>Trainers
Starting prices are a separate issue. They should follow from all of the above plus about another six or so factors(speed ratings, going, draw, class, luck in running, stable confidence etc.). However, you can use the SP or current odds as a very fair indicator of a horse’s chances and incorporate it into your ratings, but you will probably create a bias towards the favourites. In scientific terms, you are using what should be the result of your deliberations( a predicted SP) as an observation in your experiment. I know racing is not science, but systematic selection methods should be logical.
Hello Kevin,
Form Ratings<br>Last 2 runs and number of days<br>C/D<br>Trainers<br>Jockeys
The level of Class a horse has performed at is also important, as Artemis implies, there are other race day factors to consider.
I would not worry about the time imput for information, if one has the time to rate several races with lots of input involved then so well and good if you enjoy it, if time is limited then choose a race type which suits your style of betting ( I’m still learning on this one ) which has the added benefit of consentrating your efforts on one or maybe 2 races, rather than the hurried, crash through as many races as possible approach.<br>The idea that you could miss out on a winner, if you don’t rate as many races as possible to FIND the winner is one that the bookmakers would be happy to promote.
Basically, its a balance of time and input, if you want lots of input to cover all the bases then choose one or maybe two races to rate.
One thing I don’t like about computer programs is that they give fixed values to your input information, spreadsheets however can be set up so that given a certain situation you can control the value given to a factor based on your estimation of the strenght that that factor has to bare on the race in question.
Regards
Andy
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.. those inuts sounds very familiar to the Propunter DGA that I used back in the ’80s.
I have written similar programs myself in Excel .. my advice would be pretty much the same as Artemis.
Leave out the FSP from the program, if you can’t then simply add the horses odds in relation to the field size, for example a horse in a six runner race has a one in six chance of winning so enter 5/1.
Good luck !
hi.. just dropped in to the basement to take a peek after a few drinks. Having spent the last two weeks in the US on holiday watching their races and listening to their clap trap, the word on the street is to ignore trainers and jockey form in analysis of the low grade stuff and reserve this angle for the graded races etc .. the thinking is whatever the crowd is doing, take the opposite approach, just focus on the basics: ability at the distance, going, recent form and grade.. reserve  the 80/20 rule in highly graded races.. i.e. 80% races are won by the top 20% of trainers and jockeys in graded races.
My $0.10 worth ;)  hic!
(Edited by slipperytoad at 2:51 am on Mar. 22, 2007)
Hi Dave
I think your memory may be failing you about Pro-punter:biggrin:
Surely you must remember having to input the details of every win for the horse. Fine if it was a flat race with a couple of wins per horse, but a handicap chase for seasoned campaigners and you could be looking at 20+ races for some horses.
Pro-Punter is available free at the moment. It does not seem any different to the old DOS version I had except it has a Windows interface. Tried it on an eight runner race . After inputting data for what seemed like half an hour and only being halfway through I gave up. Just as tedious as it always was.
Pro-Punter and Amstrad PC’s .. :biggrin:
.. those were the days !!
No wonder its free.
Hi
If you are still unsure of the procalc ratings ,let me know what you are stuck on.
As I am the actual author of the Programme.
Hi procalc .. do you have a website or historical data for the program, does it work ??
Hi procalc
Perhaps you could post a synopsis of your method – obviously without revealing anything that might be plagiarised.
I’ve seen quite a few of these, but not many recently. The drawback was always the tedious manual input of data, but I’m sure there must be quicker ways available using programs like Excel.
I’m aware that there are many individuals and syndicates using computer models of race prediction, but very few are offered to the public(e.g Brimardon).
My website is http://www.procalc.freeserve.co.uk/ which provides details of the computer programme
The programme has been updated for 2007 However the All Weather programme is no longer a seperate programme ,it is now integrated into the Flat Programme.
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