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Let’s get back to the Arc.
Order Of St George almost back to the price he was before his disappointing run.
With Found shortening too. Value Is EverythingI think New Bay is the best value left in the Arc at 25/1.
Fabre’s colt was third last year and that was a decent effort with horses like Golden Horn, Flintshire and Treve in opposition.
He was one of many who never got into A Shin Hikari’s race, in what looked a freak event. He then had a proper pipe opener next time. 4th in the Irish Champion was no disgrace and back to 12F he should benefit from stepping up in trip.
To my mind he is clearly better value at 25/1 than Order Of St George, who is getting excuses for being floored at a million to one on, and only sits at 20/1 in the betting for the Arc.
New Bay 25/1 each-way 1/4 odds 1-2-3 is advised.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Sorry I’ve taken the bigger prices, but there’s still a little bit of 28/1 New Bay available on betfair at time of writing. If nobody takes it I will so be quick. Or, just to finish off my bet – if someone would like to lay the £3.39 @ 33/1 on the pink side of the board I’d be grateful.
We agree again Steve, hopefully New Bay will win for the both of us.
Do you think some TRFers will see we’ve both backed him and hope it loses? :lol:Value Is EverythingA big winner like you must be on high commission….?
Blackbeard to conquer the World
I backed New Bay before the season got underway. I felt that he would shorten if he won on seasonal debut and took 12/1.
He ran like a drain and drifted afterwards, so my plan back-fired in that respect.
I did Minding before the Oaks, when she was 25/1 and have La Cressonniere at 14/1.
My saver is on Postponed.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I backed New Bay before the season got underway. I felt that he would shorten if he won on seasonal debut and took 12/1.
He ran like a drain and drifted afterwards, so my plan back-fired in that respect.
I did Minding before the Oaks, when she was 25/1 and have La Cressonniere at 14/1.
My saver is on Postponed.
…And you think I back too many horses, Steve!
Value Is EverythingI got an A in my A-level Maths and studied the subject at a higher level than that afterwards including advanced Calculus and Trigonometry.
I would have thought Geometry would be more suited to the arc
Blackbeard to conquer the World
…And you think I back too many horses, Steve!
Ginge, I’ve noticed you have backed a few lately each way. I never thought you did this. Is it a confidence thing or have you found a value path to this…?
Blackbeard to conquer the World
…And you think I back too many horses, Steve!
Ginge, I’ve noticed you have backed a few lately each way. I never thought you did this. Is it a confidence thing or have you found a value path to this…?
You’re right Nathan.
It hurt when I’d backed outsiders to win with a saver/s on the favourite/s, only for a the fav to disappoint and the outsiders to place.So have been looking at doing more each way betting and forgetting about the saving favs, but usually only when the make up of the race is right/mathematically sound for EW.
Races that I like to bet each way are:
As near to the straight 8 or 5 runners as possile (rarely do handicapps on the flat)
Races with a short priced fav.
Races with a lot of rank outsiders (and I mean rank), where eliminating them would bring the race close to a straight 8 or 5.
Front runners who are likely to get a soft lead. One might overtake, possibly two, but three?
Comination of the above is best.I seldom/never do each way ante-post, especially on a race so competitive as the Arc. You’ve got a 4/1 fav, too many in with a chance, nowhere near the straight 8 or 5, and most importantly… The horse could miss the race – losing a bet at say 20/1 is one thing, effectively losing two bets – one @ 20/1 and another @ 5/1 (quarter) or 4/1 (fifth) is quite another. I’ve heard some ante-post gamblers say they don’t bet ante-post @ odds as short as 4/1, but they do.
As far as win betting is concerned: It’s easy for ante-post punters to believe they’ve got a better price than day of race punters, but it’s not always the case. I’ve already taken a bit of a risk by backing three horses to win the Arc.
Let’s take a hypethetical race where the ante-post punter backs three horses to win all @ 20/1 and stakes the same amount on all three… If just one turns up the punter might believe he’s got 20/1 about something best priced on the day @ 7/1. But the ante-post punter has really taken combined odds of 6/1, so in fact the day of race punter with 7/1 in this case has the better deal.Ante-post punter:
1 point @ 20/1 potential return 21 points
1 point @ 20/1 potential return 21 points
1 point @ 20/1 potential return 21 points
combined stake 3 points potential return 21 points, potential profit +18 pointsDay of race punter with same overall stakes:
3 points @ 7/1 potential return 24 points, potential profit +21 points.Fingers crossed my three all turn up.
Value Is EverythingYes, high odds are very tempting and the Arc is a very competitive race, but I don’t see a horse who could really beat Postponed. So, I would rather take the short price, as I prefer to back only one horse
.If the going gets very soft then order of St George must have a cracking chance. At the odds minding and new bay look the standouts to me. If the going is better than good then found would be the best as she seems to thrive in the autumn and she was very unlucky last year. The best
Minding is a worryingly big price for me. The vibes are not good I feel.
Postponed probably deserves to be favourite here but at least one man feels he can be beaten.
OK, the jockey is always going to be biased but this is what this pilot feels about his mount:-
Demuro says there are “no dangers” in Arc for La Cressonniere
Jockey Cristian Demuro is oozing confidence about the chances of the unbeaten La Cressonniere in the Arc. According to Demuro, who has partnered the filly in her past five starts, she is in great form, will stay 12 furlongs and she is so good that there are “no dangers” in the Arc. When asked how she compares to Almanzor, her stablemate, he was adamant she is much better.
Looking back at La Cressonniere’s trial for the Arc, you could hardly have asked for a better performance.
Watching the video here:- http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/race-replays/2/2301/ shows a filly who simply hacks around in a group 2 race before scampering away to win as cosily as you like.I have been with La Cressonniere since she stormed home over a mile at Deauville last season on heavy ground. What struck me that day was that she quickened so markedly on bad ground, able to maintain her cadence. She strikes me as a filly who increase here stride rate, rather than length, when she picks up.
Of course the extra trip is always a question but you feel this filly is inherently much faster than Harzand and Order Of St George for instance. Could you really imagine either of them putting a race to bed in the style of La Cressonniere?
I think it is helpful that La Cressonniere can track the pace and quicken up in the closing stages and she has also won at the track before. The runner up in the French Oaks, Left Hand, won the Group 1 Prix Vermielle last week and good fillies such as Qemah and Alice Springs have finished behind her this year.
La Cressonniere is unbeaten and has followed a similar path to Zarkava but is relatively unheralded and sits a stone shy of the former Arc heroine in the ratings. Jean-Claude Rouget’s filly needs to win this Arc to finally make a name for herself and I hope she can do so to top off a great season for the trainer. She looks like a horse with a terrific will to win she deserves more fans than she seems to possess.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Personally, think La Cressonniere has more fans than her form deserves.
Good luck to anyone with big prices, she’s won a lot of races and deserves credit for that, but what form line warrants current Arc odds?
It’s all very well using Qemah and Alice Springs to big up La Cressonniere, but is that form true/realistic? French Guineas win had Qemah just over a length away 3rd, and Alice Springs well back in 7th. But we know those two have improved since because of two fillies that finished close up. Nathra beaten only a length second between the two French fillies… And just another head behind Qemah was Besharah. That is nowhere near Arc winning form.
In the Nonette (Group 2 where La Cressonniere escaped a penalty) beat Jemayel two lengths easily in what turned out a two horse race. Two of the five runners ruined their chance by continuously barging in to each other and the other a pacemaker. That’s perhaps La Cressonniere’s best form line even if we believe it. Odds were 1\5 and won like it. Race run at a slow pace, Jemayel bit free early and not sure she gave her form. Anyway, had previously been easily beaten further (2½) by Minding in the Nassau.
La Cressonniere beat Left Hand ½ length in the French Oaks with 1¼ back to Volta, and ½ length to Azaelia. Left Hand then went on to win the Vermaille by ½ length from Group 2 Lancashire Oaks winner Endless Time, with The Juliet Rose (who’s no more than a Group 3 winner) a further ¾ length away. Volta won the Group 2 Prix Sandringham and finished 1¼ lengths 2nd to Qemah in the Group 1 Prix Rothschild. Azaelia’s best effort was 2 lengths 2nd in a Group 3…
On “form”, Le Cressonniere comes out only a ½ length better horse than Left Hand… and yet the latter is freely available @ 33/1 (50/1 betfair) for the Arc and wouldn’t say she’s value at that price.
Using other form lines La Cressonniere comes out just a length better than Nathra and 1¼ with Besharah, 1¾ lengths better than Volta, and 2¼ lengths better than Azaelia… And on a line through Left Hand – length better than Endless Time and 1¾ lengths better than The Juliet Rose. Forgetting stamina etc and concentrating solely on ability: Can you see any of those horses getting within those distances of a top form Postponed or even Harzand?
I’ve got no problem believing La Cressonniere a bit better than the distances back to those horses. Deserves credit for two Group 1’s and probably has more improvement in her; a progressive filly means a lot going in to the Arc. But she’s going to need a massive step up on “form” – even if giving her the benefit of say another couple of lengths added to those distances/victories – still has an awful lot to find to beat some double her odds!
With so many wins to her name it’s possible only does enough to win. However, take the two Group 1’s (which she didn’t win by far) out and she was up against vastly inferior rivals that fillies races sometimes produce. With such a sequence of “ones” to her name why shouldn’t jockey and trainer be confident of another? They’re not form experts. Fits the trends of an improving French filly. This is also seemingly the only French runner with any real chance of winning the premier French race this year; so could see her going off favourite. However, punters should not get carried away with how good those performances actually were. Zarkava had far better form going in to the race. I’d make this filly THE worst value bet in this race at current best price of 5/1. I rate her chance behind Makahiki, Found and Harzand.
Value Is EverythingLa Cressonniere has always looked to me to have a bit up her sleeve in her races. I’ve backed Found @ 65’s ( posted earlier ) and agree with Steve this horse could be a bit special.
La Cressonniere has always looked to me to have a bit up her sleeve in her races. I’ve backed Found @ 65’s ( posted earlier ) and agree with Steve this horse could be a bit special.
Agreed, she has “had a bit up her sleeve” Botchy. Think it’s wise to giving her credit for winning by another couple more lengths each time. But even that means she still has a lot to make up on most of the other principles in the betting… And yes, she could improve further, needs to.
I’m with you on Found!
Wish I’d got that price.
Well, it seems Mr Caution has once again taken exception to me disagreeing with his opinion.
Value Is EverythingAgreed, she has “had a bit up her sleeve” Botchy. Think it’s wise to giving her credit for winning by another couple more lengths each time. But even that means she still has a lot to make up on most of the other principles in the betting… And yes, she could improve further, needs to.
I’m with you on Found!
Wish I’d got that price.
Well, it seems Mr Caution has once again taken exception to me disagreeing with his opinion.
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I dont think Found got any credit for winning the Breeders Cup last year, everything was about Golden Horn and the ground. Fair enough it was softer than ideal for Golden Horn but he did win on Yielding ground in the Irish Champion stakes before the Arc.The ground was officially Good to Soft by UK standards so not exactly a bog.
During the race they both gave it 100% and Found won fair and square. Possibly 12F is her best trip, when at her peak.
Replay of the BCT
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