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What price Order of St George now..?
I’ve not seen the race yet, any excuses.?Dettori from the front in a slowly run race.
Was there a tail wind too?
Moore held OOSG up a few lengths off the winner.
Wicklow Brave is an under-rated horse. He was the best horse in the Lonsdale Cup, only beaten by the run of the race and temperament. Getting behind in a slowly run affair, doing by far the best of those held up. Finding Quest For More too good. Quest For More then franked the form this week, winning everywhere bar the line at Donny. Wicklow Brave is an enigmatic character and may be a first try at front running suited; has down tools in the past.
Order Of St George didn’t get the best of rides trying to come from the back in a slowly run race, but should have done better. Below his best, but not as much as SP suggests given the circumstances… However, not sure how likely he is of running in the Arc after that.
Value Is EverythingJust saw that OOSG got stuffed. Our Mr Caution seems to be having an exceptional weekend :)
Don’t watch enough Flat racing to offer any intelligent opinion on this, but given the success WB today and of Big Orange and horses like Overturn in the past, is there any indication that it’s easier to win as a staying front-runner (over long trips) on the Flat than it might be over shorter trips?
Just saw that OOSG got stuffed. Our Mr Caution seems to be having an exceptional weekend
Don’t watch enough Flat racing to offer any intelligent opinion on this, but given the success WB today and of Big Orange and horses like Overturn in the past, is there any indication that it’s easier to win as a staying front-runner (over long trips) on the Flat than it might be over shorter trips?
Pace in the race is more influential at 7f+ and imo the longer the race the more important pace becomes. Might be there’s also fewer front-running stayers around at the moment so getting their own way more often.
Value Is EverythingWhat price Order of St George now..?
I’ve not seen the race yet, any excuses.?Dettori from the front in a slowly run race.
Was there a tail wind too?
Moore held OOSG up a few lengths off the winner.
Wicklow Brave is an under-rated horse. He was the best horse in the Lonsdale Cup, only beaten by the run of the race and temperament. Getting behind in a slowly run affair, doing by far the best of those held up. Finding Quest For More too good. Quest For More then franked the form this week, winning everywhere bar the line at Donny. Wicklow Brave is an enigmatic character and may be a first try at front running suited; has down tools in the past.
Order Of St George didn’t get the best of rides trying to come from the back in a slowly run race, but should have done better. Below his best, but not as much as SP suggests given the circumstances… However, not sure how likely he is of running in the Arc after that.
Just as I guessed, there was a strong tail wind, favouring front runners in Ireland today.
Value Is EverythingJust saw that OOSG got stuffed. Our Mr Caution seems to be having an exceptional weekend
Don’t watch enough Flat racing to offer any intelligent opinion on this
Whenever I see that rather crude phrase I almost get the impression that the writer has got some warped pleasure out of seeing a horse lose. Surely you are not daft enough to believe that just because Order Of St George – for whatever reason – didn’t run his race today that is somehow vindication that the on song version wouldn’t have been competitive in an Arc?
I would hope Mr Caution wanted the horse to be in the field. Unfortunately, now we will not have a definitive answer to the debate.
What price Order of St George now..?
I’ve not seen the race yet, any excuses.?Dettori from the front in a slowly run race.
Was there a tail wind too?
Moore held OOSG up a few lengths off the winner.
Wicklow Brave is an under-rated horse. He was the best horse in the Lonsdale Cup, only beaten by the run of the race and temperament. Getting behind in a slowly run affair, doing by far the best of those held up. Finding Quest For More too good. Quest For More then franked the form this week, winning everywhere bar the line at Donny. Wicklow Brave is an enigmatic character and may be a first try at front running suited; has down tools in the past.
Order Of St George didn’t get the best of rides trying to come from the back in a slowly run race, but should have done better. Below his best, but not as much as SP suggests given the circumstances… However, not sure how likely he is of running in the Arc after that.Just as I guessed, there was a strong tail wind, favouring front runners in Ireland today.
Hi GT,
The wind at the Curragh yesterday was across the track, and if anything more a head wind than a tail wind.
I would think it will be found and seventh heaven with maybe Idaho.oosg racing programme looks more like he’s been readied for the Melbourne cup. Poor ride by Ryan,a tad overconfident. Didnt have a hard race so maybe go for the stayers race at Ascot if not off to oz.
OOSG already ruled out of Melbourne Cup by part owner Williams because of the weight he’d have to carry. Bondi Beach (same part-owner) is being aimed at MC, he’s just been out for racecourse galops this year in order to protect his weight
Ryan was obviously instructed to ride OOSG for speed yesterday as a prep for the Arc, but he misjudged it, particularly against that wind. If it came up soft, I think he might still go to the Arc, there’s nothing else for him this year.
Stan James go 9/2 Makahiki after the Japanese Derby winner won the Prix Neil by a neck and a short head from Midterm and Doha Dream. I watched the race live and can’t say I was as impressed as the Stan James team clearly were.
Midterm was rumoured to be Stoute’s best Derby shot and after beating Algometer in the Sandown Classic Trial he headed to the Dante in the aftermath of some flops by other Derby contenders as the colt expected to win the York trial and set himself up as the clear favourite for the race.
In the end, Midterm disappointed and emerged from the Dante with his rating dropped 3lbs to 109.
Midterm has been absent since and would have been forgiven for not being fully ripe yesterday. Doha Dream is a two-time Listed winner and I can’t see why Makahiki would be as short as 9/2 with a good bit more needed than the Neil form in my opinion.
Some firms go 8/1 but I don’t fancy him myself.
Harzand is 14/1 and US Army Ranger 50/1, which is a brace of odds that would surprise some people for the Derby 1-2.
For me it is hard to look beyond Postponed and La Cressonniere for this. If the French filly stays she must have a great chance. She has won on heavy ground and the bonus I would say it that she has been able to quicken up on bad ground to win easily in the past.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I agree with you on a few things there Caution.
The best Arc trial on sunday was imo Silverwaves Prix Foy win, the horse has progressed well since his 3-y-o season and to me looks like the biggest threat to Postponed and La Cressonniere. Silverwave was twice well beaten at Chantilly, first 7 lengths by New Bay in the French Derby and then again on his 2016 seasonal debut he was nearly 7 lengths behind Garlingari in the Ganay. Since then he has rocketed 2nd to Dariyan in Gr.1, 3rd to A Shin Hikari in Gr.1 on Chantilly!, wins Gr1 Grand Prix St Cloud and now the Foy https://youtu.be/25xH9FWnBCo
He won the Foy decisively. I have La Cressonniere at 14/1 to win, but I will put an E/W bet on Silverwave and double the 2 horses. Leaving the 3rd place to Postponed or one of the others
Best Wishes
SilkEverything looks good for Postponed. He just looks top, top class.
I must admit I haven’t even bothered to look at the other contenders but apparently they are not impressing. If Gore was still here he would say Postponed, bridle. And to be honest in this case I agree
Harzand is 14/1 and US Army Ranger 50/1, which is a brace of odds that would surprise some people for the Derby 1-2.
Harzand is in a race to even get there, having finished lame on Sunday. So it is not surprising 14/1 was available. If his health improves fast and makes it to Chantilly with give in the ground won’t be anything like that price on the day – probably in single figures. If health does not improve fast then expect the ante-post price to get bigger before being ruled out. Hope he makes it there as would add a lot to the event.
After injury, US Army Ranger is not showing his form at the moment. Given the number of possibilities Coolmore has in the Arc – currently a highly unlikely runner and not surprisingly offered at 50/1. Available @ 14/1 with one firm for the Breeders Cup Turf (and only 9/1 with another). Far better target which gives more time to recover his form… suspect US Army Ranger will end up in the US.
Ante-post prices are not only about how good or bad a horse is, it’s also about how likely it is to run.
Value Is EverythingFar better target which gives more time to recover his form… suspect US Army Ranger will end up in the US.
What form, he hasn’t won anything worth talking about?
Harzand can’t have been that badly affected in Ireland, already given the go ahead for the Arc, so hardly a race against time there. Mud will give him a chance but you get the feeling the coal will be getting shovelled on early otherwise.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Harzand can’t have been that badly affected in Ireland, already given the go ahead for the Arc, so hardly a race against time there.
Then that must be the reason why Harzand is no longer available @ 14/1 and at time of writing only two bits of 12’s left.
Value Is EverythingFar better target which gives more time to recover his form… suspect US Army Ranger will end up in the US.
What form, he hasn’t won anything worth talking about?
This goes to the heart of why you can not understand my form analysis Steve. You don’t see horses finishing anywhere else bar 1st as showing “form”.
“Form” is the rating achieved by finishing in the position (including lengths beaten) in relation to other horses who’ve put up a performance of a certain rating. I use Timeform ratings, but let’s stick to the Official form rating. Harzand was given an official rating of 123 for winning the Derby. US Army Ranger only finished 1 1/2 lengths behind Harzand. 1 1/2 lengths being worth 2 lbs at 1m4f, so USAR was given 121. Therefore, USAR has “form” only 2 lbs inferior to winner Harzand. ie If the Derby 1-2 met again, this horse who “hasn’t won anything worth talking about” USAR only needs to improve more than 2 lbs on Derby form to beat a running to form (Derby winner) Harzand.
USAR has shown a form rating of 121. Needs to recover that 121 form (and probably improve a little on it) to have a chance of winning the Breeders Cup.
Value Is EverythingFar better target which gives more time to recover his form… suspect US Army Ranger will end up in the US.
What form, he hasn’t won anything worth talking about?
This goes to the heart of why you can not understand my form analysis Steve. You don’t see horses finishing anywhere else bar 1st as showing “form”.
“Form” is the rating achieved by finishing in the position (including lengths beaten). I use Timeform ratings, but let’s stick to the Official form rating. Harzand was given an official rating of 123 for winning the Derby. US Army Ranger only finished 1 1/2 lengths behind Harzand so was given a form rating of 121. A form rating only 2 lbs inferior to Harzand.
USAR has shown a form rating of 121. Needs to recover that 121 form (and probably improve on it) to have a chance of winning the Breeders Cup.
The rating given for the Derby is not an exact science though. I can understand the form. I got an A in my A-level Maths and studied the subject at a higher level than that afterwards including advanced Calculus and Trigonometry.
The Mathematical aspect of Handicapping is pretty low level arithmetic at best and is not difficult to understand.
Personal opinion is based on whether you believe that the figures awarded are accurate. One rating, based on one run can easily be inaccurate.
Handicappers tend to raise horses quickly and then downrate them very slowly.
Foundation was awarded 110 for the Royal Lodge and has pretty much stunk the place out, but it’s only now, after the connections have tried every trick in the book with the horse, that the handicappers have lowered him by 3 lbs to 107.
I don’t share your implicit belief in the handicappers getting it bang on. My gut feeling was that the Derby winner this year would be in the Ruler Of The World territory of 120, in fact I felt it was possible coming in that it might duck under the 120 mark.
For me, the possibility exists that US Army Ranger is simply showing that he is not really a group 1 horse.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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