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Found was poorly drawn last year. tbh At this trip – I’d expect her to be held up again this time around, just hope she can get a good run through.
AOB isn’t always my favourite trainer, but all three of his look value in this.
Already done OOSG and Found, HR only has 1 1/4 lengths to make up on the favourite from York and yet one is 2/1 and the other is 25/1. Shouldn’t quite be good enough in an average year, but this may not be up to an average year. There’s the Irish Champion 7th, but is he not better on a sound surface? If “soft” is not in the going description I may well be backing HR too.
Makahiki is the one “could be anything” in the field.
Value Is EverythingFound was poorly drawn last year. tbh At this trip – I’d expect her to be held up again this time around, just hope she can get a good run through.
I love backing Found in the Autumn Ginge I think that is when she really finds her form I am with her 100% to win this, she’s as tough as any colt.
Let’s hope she gets that good run through you mentioned 
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Found was poorly drawn last year. tbh At this trip – I’d expect her to be held up again this time around, just hope she can get a good run through.
I love backing Found in the Autumn Ginge I think that is when she really finds her form I am with her 100% to win this, she’s as tough as any colt.
Let’s hope she gets that good run through you mentioned JacAm glad someone else has seen that Jac. I said many pages ago “if you take a look at last year’s form it is similar to this. Performances nowhere near her best early and only reaching absolute best in the Autumn. Time of year is often important, especially to fillies“. Ignore her Spring and early Summer form.
Ryan Moore on board Found and am delighted Dettori is on Order Of St George. Unfortunately though, Highland Reel will have a 5 lb penalty.
Value Is EverythingCrankie booked for Order Of St George. Obviously, I have backed him but struggling to see why his price has remained pretty similar to what it was before his last run. Dettori, a preferable booking to Moore, who has a 2/2 mess-up record on the horse, but on the evidence of that last run he hasn’t got a prayer whoever is on board.
Soft ground would have made things interesting for the front three in the market but it doesn’t look like that will happen so it is very hard to see past Postponed with Harzand his most likely challenger.
Crankie booked for Order Of St George. Obviously, I have backed him but struggling to see why his price has remained pretty similar to what it was before his last run. Dettori, a preferable booking to Moore, who has a 2/2 mess-up record on the horse, but on the evidence of that last run he hasn’t got a prayer whoever is on board.
Soft ground would have made things interesting for the front three in the market but it doesn’t look like that will happen so it is very hard to see past Postponed with Harzand his most likely challenger.
Is Postponed that great though? On racingpost ratings he’s still some way short of an average winner of this race and five year olds have a dire record in the Arc. And as for Harzand, his last run was terrible.
Three year olds have a much better recent record than older horses in this race. As Harzand’s run last time was so bad I would put a line through him although he could of course bounce back.
This leaves the Japanese horse as the most credible three year old and though you have to make a leap of faith with his form and everything, the visual impression suggests he’s more than up to this.
Am glad someone else has seen that Jac. I said many pages ago “if you take a look at last year’s form it is similar to this. Performances nowhere near her best early and only reaching absolute best in the Autumn. Time of year is often important, especially to fillies“. Ignore her Spring and early Summer form.
Ryan Moore on board Found and am delighted Dettori is on Order Of St George. Unfortunately though, Highland Reel will have a 5 lb penalty.
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Watching the Irish Champion she really flew past the field coming from behind. In the BC race she was up with the pace all the way and kicked off the bend with Golden Horn and stayed all the way to the line.
I dont know if Found is running in the Champion Stakes at Ascot but if she is i could see her turning the tables on the Favourite
Last year she went Irish Champion, Arc, Champion and BC
Crankie booked for Order Of St George. Obviously, I have backed him but struggling to see why his price has remained pretty similar to what it was before his last run. Dettori, a preferable booking to Moore, who has a 2/2 mess-up record on the horse, but on the evidence of that last run he hasn’t got a prayer whoever is on board.
Soft ground would have made things interesting for the front three in the market but it doesn’t look like that will happen so it is very hard to see past Postponed with Harzand his most likely challenger.
Is Postponed that great though? On racingpost ratings he’s still some way short of an average winner of this race and five year olds have a dire record in the Arc. And as for Harzand, his last run was terrible.
Three year olds have a much better recent record than older horses in this race. As Harzand’s run last time was so bad I would put a line through him although he could of course bounce back.
This leaves the Japanese horse as the most credible three year old and though you have to make a leap of faith with his form and everything, the visual impression suggests he’s more than up to this.
I think there is something in what you are saying. I originally picked out two horses to beat Postponed but one is injured and the other went on to run a shocker. Postponed is the selection almost by default. The bare form of his wins probably isn’t that special but he might not have to be that special to win this year’s renewal. I can’t have the Japanese horse as I haven’t a clue how much improvement (if any) he can make from the trial. That was only a couple of weeks ago and he needs to find plenty just to be competitive. I have already given reasons why I don’t want Found but the race is weaker now and she is likely to get her ground and perhaps a slow pace to suit her speed over stamina profile. Harzand isn’t the greatest Derby but he reportedly had a problem in the Irish Champion and in any case the drop back in trip wasn’t likely to suit. He is the opposite profile to Found in that he wouldn’t mind a drop of rain to increase the emphasis on stamina. Looking beyond those at the head of the market there doesn’t appear to be much else out there. Is New Bay any better than last year? I am not even sure that he isn’t a better horse over ten rather than twelve furlongs.
If anything else wins the bookmakers will be popping their champagne corks.
Postponed is 5 but I wouldn’t see that as a negative for him personally as he is a late developer a bit in the mould of a Al Kazeem type that gets better with age.
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Crankie booked for Order Of St George. Obviously, I have backed him but struggling to see why his price has remained pretty similar to what it was before his last run. Dettori, a preferable booking to Moore, who has a 2/2 mess-up record on the horse, but on the evidence of that last run he hasn’t got a prayer whoever is on board.
Soft ground would have made things interesting for the front three in the market but it doesn’t look like that will happen so it is very hard to see past Postponed with Harzand his most likely challenger.
Is Postponed that great though? On racingpost ratings he’s still some way short of an average winner of this race and five year olds have a dire record in the Arc. And as for Harzand, his last run was terrible.
Three year olds have a much better recent record than older horses in this race. As Harzand’s run last time was so bad I would put a line through him although he could of course bounce back.
This leaves the Japanese horse as the most credible three year old and though you have to make a leap of faith with his form and everything, the visual impression suggests he’s more than up to this.
I think there is something in what you are saying. I originally picked out two horses to beat Postponed but one is injured and the other went on to run a shocker. Postponed is the selection almost by default. The bare form of his wins probably isn’t that special but he might not have to be that special to win this year’s renewal. I can’t have the Japanese horse as I haven’t a clue how much improvement (if any) he can make from the trial. That was only a couple of weeks ago and he needs to find plenty just to be competitive. I have already given reasons why I don’t want Found but the race is weaker now and she is likely to get her ground and perhaps a slow pace to suit her speed over stamina profile. Harzand isn’t the greatest Derby but he reportedly had a problem in the Irish Champion and in any case the drop back in trip wasn’t likely to suit. He is the opposite profile to Found in that he wouldn’t mind a drop of rain to increase the emphasis on stamina. Looking beyond those at the head of the market there doesn’t appear to be much else out there. Is New Bay any better than last year? I am not even sure that he isn’t a better horse over ten rather than twelve furlongs.
If anything else wins the bookmakers will be popping their champagne corks.
But you knock out Makahiki on the back of a “poor” prep run, yet are giving Harzand a chance, surely this is inconsistent?
Surely Makahiki’s prep run was a lot better than Harzand’s. Actually the fact that he didn’t win that impressively is in my view a positive thing. He’s saving his best for the big day, you don’t want to leave your race behind in the trial etc. He strikes me as a horse likely to look at his most impressive in a race like the Arc, big field, possible strong pace etc.
The Prix Niel and Irish Champion were chalk and cheese in terms of quality. I didn’t say it was a poor prep run just that he would need massive improvement on that effort to win an Arc. Connections might have an idea what they have to work with but most punters will not have a clue. I would sooner leave him alone at around 9/2. Harzand had excuses for his run and at double the price I would sooner buy into those than guess the Japanese runner was suddenly going to find the necessary improvement. I probably won’t be backing anything else now and will just have to take the two losing ante-post bets on the chin.
I keep telling you all Silverware ran three seconds faster than the Japanese horse last time out and is still 25/1 !!! Huge price IMO
Am glad someone else has seen that Jac. I said many pages ago “if you take a look at last year’s form it is similar to this. Performances nowhere near her best early and only reaching absolute best in the Autumn. Time of year is often important, especially to fillies“. Ignore her Spring and early Summer form.
Ryan Moore on board Found and am delighted Dettori is on Order Of St George. Unfortunately though, Highland Reel will have a 5 lb penalty.
Watching the Irish Champion she really flew past the field coming from behind. In the BC race she was up with the pace all the way and kicked off the bend with Golden Horn and stayed all the way to the line.
I dont know if Found is running in the Champion Stakes at Ascot but if she is i could see her turning the tables on the Favourite
Last year she went Irish Champion, Arc, Champion and BC
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Back her wherever she runs Botchy…
I hope she is running in the Champion Stakes at Ascot as I took 14/1 a while back but she is also down to run in the Fillies & Mares. So unlucky to have been the bridesmaid her last five runs.Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...I keep telling you all Silverware ran three seconds faster than the Japanese horse last time out and is still 25/1 !!! Huge price IMO
I think you mean Silverwave Raymo…
Joe has him putting in a polished performance so perhaps we should all dive in now.
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Sorry got carried away with the possibility of backing a 25/1 Arc winner!!
And maybe I need to get the Brasso out???
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