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Trust the common sense man will be equally pleased for Heffo on Sunday afternoon.No more out of me on this thread.
My three against the field:
Hiruno D’Amour: Japanese horses tend to do well in the Arc, and his run last time out, just behind Sarafina, was very encouraging. Has got a plum draw, and could well go one better than last time. (ew, 14s).
Reliable Man: We don’t know for certain about the ground with this lightly raced three-year-old. Winning the French Derby and the Prix Neil is an Arc winners sort of form. Oozes class. (ew, 14s).
Treasure Beach: Only just beaten by Pour Moi (who would have won this, IMHO) in the Derby, beat Nathaniel at Chester and then won the Irish Derby. Bounced back from a bad run in France to win in the States. Ridiculously big price. (ew, 40s)
Twitter=@PGHenn
So don't run, just like the others always do
The draw will make a real test for Heffernan as he will have to drop him in and ride a waiting race.
Long homestraight and downward portion leading into it means that horses who can quicken usually do best, that might explain the Treasure Beach price.
Re: Sarafina dismissing Cirrus Des Aigles with one sentence is terribly dangerous and careless.
Behkabad and Fame doesn’t devalue her Arc run at all, there are question marks over them (both interfered with, F+G badly, Behk perhaps over the top for that and the Breeders Cup). Workforce and Nakayama Festa got clear runs and ran to their best, there’s every reason to measure her run through them instead of Behk and Fame. Midday form is similarly not reliable for reasons I’ve outlined before; as you’ve pointed out, the fact that Midday wouldn’t be considered in/couldn’t win the Arc rules that form as likely false. The neck win over Cirrus Des Aigles was in an absolute crawl of a race, the most impressive looking neck win you’ll ever see. She was the only one to make ground in that race and showed a breathtaking sprint.But I agree that the price is not attractive given her running style.
i have been looking at the form of this race for a couple of weeks and i think it is a very open race i do like sarafina but the bad draw and short price put me off slightly i also like st nicholas abbey i think he is a huge price but i have noticed any time he has been beaten has been on a right handed track how much of a factor that has to a flat horse if any i dont know also both japanese horses must have a chance and treasure beach must have an each way squeak i just get the feeling he has had a long season though but i think the one for me is reliable man he has the look of an arc winner on paper .
Galikova for me: an improving filly who has the necessary turn of foot to be involved in the finish.
That said, my main fancy is to oppose So You Think. I just cannot see this horse winning an Arc.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
I’ve just backed st Nicks e/w. I’ll go and check myself into Bedlam
Think he’s a great price myself – especially when you think of it in relation to some of his opponents. He’s twice the price of Masked Marvel. Unreal.
Obviously the fact that he may be a pacemaker at some stage is factored into his price but when a horse is classy enough to win the race he may be pacemaking in (think Cape Cross in the Lockinge) then he or she is usually a value bet.
In St Nicholas Abbey’s case, I’d certainly think he’s value IF guaranteed to be prominent. Even with three pound penalty Joseph on board. At Chester, he ran on really strongly when away from the other runners out in the centre. When Midday came alongside at Epsom he soon came under pressure. Only when the mare had gone clear and (again) St Nicholas Abbey out on his own in the middle – did he hit full stride.
Never happy in the King George on the inner behind other runners and failing to run on through horses. Unsuited by a slow pace in the Foy.EDIT: have now had a couple of savers, one on St Nicholas Abbey @ 37/1 and 14/1 Hirano D’Amour. To go with main bets on Workforce 6.4/1
, and Snow Fairy 20/1 (each way).Value Is EverythingJoseph has ridden out his claim. The trouble with St Nicholas Abbey is that his form overall isnt good enough. If one is generous and thinks he ran to 123 in the Coronation or King George, that level of performance is seldom good enough to win the Arc.
His price in the 25/1 – 33/1 range seems a bit short to me.Joseph has ridden out his claim. The trouble with St Nicholas Abbey is that his form overall isnt good enough. If one is generous and thinks he ran to 123 in the Coronation or King George, that level of performance is seldom good enough to win the Arc.
His price in the 25/1 – 33/1 range seems a bit short to me.37/1 EF.
Whether he’s officially ridden out his claim or not. Fact is Joseph is the same jockey now as he was a few days ago. He’s an inexperienced young jockey riding in this race against the best in the World at level weights.
True the Coronation form is not good enough, but St Nicholas Abbey is a tricky horse and never can quite tell how much he’s got in the locker. Price makes him worth a saver in my opinion, despite all the negatives.
Value Is EverythingJust the one running for me – Hiruno D’Amour. Good draw, excellent prep race and appears to be a genuine group/grade 1 horse. You can guarantee he has had a meticulous preparation, and trainer very bullish.
Quite looking forward to this running of the Arc in "freak" conditions (John Gosden comment at Ascot Sat).
I have always maintained that So You Think was a worthy Arc contender. The ground, though, concerns me too much for him – and I may be very wrong, but I think he is a lot better horse with cut. OK, so it may not be fast fast fast….but I think the ground has gone against him as others will be too quick at the end.
I fancy Galikova at 8/1 (Hills and Ladcrooks)- according to oddschecker Corals are 1/3 E/W 3 places.
I really fancy Sarafina for the F/C as she is banker placed.
I think Galikova and Goldikova will do the tasty double
Au Revoir Mes Amis!
Monsieur Zippont
Should be no problem, he is a world class jockey.Right? We don’t test a surgeon during surgery.
Andy, I think it’s fair to say that ‘the best avaliable’ idea went out the window when Joesph rode St Nicholas Abbey.
However, Heffernan is rated among the very best here in Ireland. At any rate, who do you think would do a better job than Heffernan, as the best available for the horse?
You’ve been talking as if just because they said ‘best available’ that no matter what circumstances they must get who is generally perceived as ‘the best’. But the best thing for the horse is to have the top class jockey who knows him ride him i.e. Seamie Heffernan.
Joseph has ridden out his claim. The trouble with St Nicholas Abbey is that his form overall isnt good enough. If one is generous and thinks he ran to 123 in the Coronation or King George, that level of performance is seldom good enough to win the Arc.
His price in the 25/1 – 33/1 range seems a bit short to me.But he’s still unexposed in that he hasn’t struck a true pace all year. I think everyone agrees that a true pace would help him, but will it help him enough?
I’m willing to take the chance that it is.
Kasbah Bliss just won the Prix du Cadran in sizzling fashion under an incredible Gerald Mosse ride. Suggesting the ground is pretty quick…
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