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That Loony farm comment was Igor, not me Potato.
And…
I said imo Appleby is in “pretty good form” not the “good form” you wrote that I said. ie Appleby is currently not in as good form as the trainer of Sottsass, but is imo in pretty good form.
In my book, Rouget would currently be a 9 out of 10, Appleby 7 out of 10 in which 6 and 5 are classed as average and 4 down to 1 in the below average to poor bracket.
Value Is EverythingAnother day another short priced beaten fav for Charlie. MAGIC LILY 5/4F effotlessly brushed aside by LALANA a handicapper.
MAGIC LILY destroyed MAGICAL and was close to the winmer LAURENS in a group 1 on her 2nd racecoyrse start.
Godolphin only bring them back for one reason and thats to win group races. The way she got brushed aside by a handicapper wss sad to see.The misery continues for Appleby. Another day another certainty despatched with ease.
Your living in La La land if you think this mans in form.
Ginge it’s fair to say you’ve another 1 up on Potato here, but as we know that isn’t hard!
Magic Lily is that the filly Potato that hasn’t run since 2017 yes?
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Yes Jack thats the one. Godolphin only bring them back from this sort of break because they can still win group races. Nobody is better at getting these types ready from a long break. They can only be disappointed with that one.
Another day another short priced beaten fav for Charlie
Beaten 3/4l after however long off!! and in v soft conditions hence the race was slow by about 13 secs but still…
Magic Lily was odds against 6/5.
Odds abainst means the horse has a better chance of getting beaten than winning.
Indeed you could say Magic Lily was expected to finish second and second was where she finished.
Had she had a good recent run would probably been odds-on, but unseen on the racetrack for almost a year – obviously had a physical problem – and surely ran well considering that absence?EDIT:
Actually it was 6/4, not 6/5.
Even if that was fair odds without a mark up you’re talking a 60% chance of losing and only 40% of winning.
Take the bookies mark up off – and if the price was an accurate assessment of its chance (as you imply in your comment) – it had a 62% chance of losing and only 38% chance of winning… Yet you Potato make out it’s a surprise when beaten. LOLIn reality Magic Lily ran as expected, not poorly as you imply.
Value Is EverythingMagical wont be sacrificed for japan..
Magical is a classy mare who deserves her chance to be sure so, yes, I guess she won’t be purposely ‘sacrificed’ per se but if she takes on Enable it may amount to the same thing. Donnacha has a big chance here so I think he’ll want to try something a little out of the ordinary because as Frenchy15 said Magical’s ordinary 124 RPR clearly isn’t good enough. Sure, backers can hope for a sub-par performance from Enable in which case Magical will have every chance but a bold ride by Donnacha could work out better for AOB I think. Best case scenario Japan wins, worst case scenario Magical finishes 2nd or 3rdish…
Also, looking at her dominant performance in the Irish Champion, I can’t help thinking that’s her best distance. She seems to fade a little at 2400m. I could be wrong – just throwing it out there.
” Appleby a 7 out of 10″
Nah. That would make his brilliant months impossible to score
Yeah im not disagreeing about her optimum trip etc kiseki you may be right (shes a massive bet e/w and w/o enable for me, she will finish 2nd i cant see anything else) but i feel if they wanted to try something different they would have sovereign or something like him in here to trouble enable, theyve tried all this, i actually for once think that coolmore will simply instruct donnacha and ryan to ride there mounts to finish there best pos and hope for a miracle that enable fails to fire…
But i cannot see them making her do something “out of her comfort zone” as it stands atm shes the second or third best in the race on ratings, if you discount ghaiyaaths farce in germany and she has consistently ran that rating!
Pretty much agree with that Ham, think they will be told to go out and just run their races and see what happens. Optimum trip? Not sure on that one, but form over 12F is 0122, the zero being last year when badly drawn. Two of those 12F races were on soft/wet ground and she’s a Group 1 winner on soft over distance. Maybe she’s best at 10 but probably I think she is equal happy at both.
Charlie Applebys brilliant form sadly continued today. Thats 10 favourites Charlie has had in the last 14 days all 10 favs beaten at odds of 8/5, 15/8, 7/10, EVS, 6/4, 3/1, 6/5, EVS, 1/2 and 8/15. As well as beatings for many 2nd fav, early favs and all of his runners have been single figure odds.
Those who live in cloud cuckoo land actually think this man is in form.
Sadly for those of us not requiring immediate medical attentiom we go into the arc with GHAIYYATH THE MONSTER having a major question mark hanging over his head in his trainers horriffic form.
The team go to the arc hopeful with GHAIYYATH but far from confident. Thankfully I have 2 absolute fire 3yo colts on my side in JAPAN and SOFT LIGHT who are ready willing and ABLE.
Fingers crossed GHAIYYATH can run his race DESPITE Applebys issues.
Ground officially was changed to ‘Very Soft’ today at Longchamp racecourse with late rain tonight and rain throughout Sunday forecast upto the race start. Its going to be one hell of a test and it can easily change to heavy by race time.
When SOFT LIGHT THE SENSATIONAL wins the Arc you will hear a pin drop at Longchamp racecourse.
His sire won a group 1 on his 2nd racecourse start on heavy and his damsire won twice on soft at Longchamp at group level.
THE MORE IT RAINS THE MORE WE WIN BY
TEAM SOFT LIGHT Aye, Soft Light’s connections will be buoyed by reports even early today from jockeys that the ground was very taxing. I think deep ground is the only thing that might beat Enable. It will benefit no other runner bar Soft Light.
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