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haha! Wow! Potato shows a lack of confidence in his horse selection. I never thought I’d see the day!
With Longchamp currently soft going and 3 straight days of rain to come with racing taking place on saturday as well as sunday then it looks highly likely to be heavy ground for the arc.
This is a major negative for WALDGEIST
Its a potential worry for ENABLE
If SOTTSASS has stamina doubts then the doubts become greater on heavy and his turn of foot is blunted.
MAGICAL has 2yo form on heavy was 2nd in a group 1 .
JAPAN won his maiden on heavy.
GHAIYYATH has never ran on heavy though his mother won the irish 1000 guineas by 6 lengths on heavy.Heavy ground plays into the already strong hands of JAPAN and GHAIYYATH whom if he can get a lead on this surface may never come back to them.
Enable drawn 9 with magical in 8 and japan on her outside in 10, most importantly ghaiyaath is in 12 and sotsass in 1
Pace on the outside of enable
Strange that your expert pricing didn’t take into consideration the trainer of the horse in the first place Potato!
AT 13/8 on your tissue you’ll still be a backer of him i presume even with this worry. No chance he’s that in real life come Sunday.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!I already am a backer of GHAIYYATH at 16.5 (1/3 of stake) as clearly stated on page 3 of this thread?
Im cut from a different cloth to many on here. I feel no need to pretend I layed off for a profit or got a better price than I actually did in order to try and feel important around total randoms off the internet. I say what I think simple as.
Im on at 16.5 and have confidence in the horses ability though am honest enough to admit this weeks stable form from appleby is offputting. Im hoping Appleby can find some form. Im likely to stick with the bet however for a number of reasons.
The draw in a 12 runner race over 1m 4f isnt overly important. Its not as if its a sprint race and early position is everything. Would have preffered a low draw for GHAIYYATH but no excuses for him just because he is drawn widest.
I can’t see three days of rain on any forecast tattie?
https://www.windfinder.com/forecast/paris-montsouris
https://www.yr.no/place/France/%c3%8ele-de-France/Paris/long.html
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/u09tvnxyj#2019-10-06
In terms of the draw, in the last 5 years in which the Arc was run at Longchamp the average of the first 5 home was 9.6. With 12 runners the draw shouldn’t be an excuse for any of them.
If you clocked my post from yesterday Homer, we are singing from the same Hymn sheet.
We might need some devine intervention, but you never knowJust read that. Hopefully it’s great minds….
https://www.accuweather.com/en/fr/longchamp/148665/weather-forecast/148665
It has been raining today. More rain due late to night.
A tropical rainstorm is predicted tomorrow. If thats accurate its heavy on sunday full stop. A tropical rainstorm will drop an insane aount of water in a short time on the track if it happens.
Showers through out saturday with rain falling in the lead up to the race on Sunday.
The team strongly advise that KEVMC packs his brolly and wellington boots as even a bit of rain can quickly turn Longchamp heavy especially when there will have been a day and a half of racing on the course prior to the arc.
The team also strongly advise that you dont rely on a weather website that specialises in wind for your future rain related forecasts.
# Just read that the course is keeping a 6 mtr fresh strip all the way round the course for the arc. So the previous races wont effect the going though a tropical rainstorm most certainly will.
Potato, there only due very very light rain,l tomorrow and light rain on sunday (although sundays rain is for most of the day) the website your using is about as bad as it gets for forecasts
Tropical rainstorm
Sorry my mistake its going to be on the fast side of good on sunday.
It takes a special sort of special to pull out the my weather websites better than your weather website. THEY ALL SAY RAIN
Though it is somewhat ammusing they say tropical rainstorm when Paris is no where near the equator
A few trends narrow down the field here…
Distance Winner in a Group 1
Recorded a min RPR that season of at least 120
Not out of the first 5 in any race that seasonSo that rules out Fierement, French King, Soft Light, Kiseki, Blast Onepeice, Nagano Gold & Sottsass. Sottsass is a bit harder to rule out, being a 3year old with big improvement potential that’s already won the French Derby, however, of the last 8 3yr olds to have won, 6 of them won a Group 1 at least twice. The exceptions, Workforce, had recorded an RPR of 129 over distance and Rail Link back in 2006, had won 3 times over distance, including the Group 1 Grand Prix de Paris. I just think Sottsass has too much to do here and the draw in 1 isn’t that ideal either.
(you don’t have to go back that far by the way Potato to find a 3year old that won the Arc having never raced against its elders. Rail Link was that horse)
That leaves 5 horses.
Frankly, I think a horse that’s won 10 Group 1s in a row that’s 8/11 is outstanding value and she’s going to win I’m sure, but in the effort of trying to take her on with something, I’ll continue….
Waldgiest is not going to like the ground here is he, as it looks like it’s going to be Soft at least, ground the trainer says he’s not the best on anymore. He has a great draw and can see him placing if he goes on the ground, but I’m not his biggest fan.
Ghaiyyath was interesting me a lot after that German demolition, but it could just be a bit flukey against horses that are very average and for me, the draw still makes a difference. Down to 12 runners makes things a little easier, but when Dylan Thomas won in 2007 with 11 runners, the very well backed 11/10 favourite Authorised was in the outside draw that day and nearly came last.
So we are left with the 2 AOB runners to take Enable on with.
Japan, also has to contend with a wide draw in 10. If he’s good enough he should be able to win from there, but it’s not ideal. The Juddmonte form is also being put into question recently and will he go okay on the ground if it’s soft or even heavy? He’s certainly on my radar, but he’s a little skinny in price I feel.
The horse that’s a bit forgotten is Magical. Okay, she’s been beaten by Enable enough times now, but AOB more or less said she wasn’t right at York this year and she is a 3 times Group 1 winner who should definitely go on the ground. 10th last year, but she was badly drawn that day and on form is a completely different horse this year. Not been out of the first 2 in every run since that day last year in 9 runs and is better drawn this year. Twice the price of Japan, I really fancy her to place and could be better value than backing Enable to win.
Magical 12/1 EW
Magical for me as well at that 12-1, although it would be win only.
I’ll also go with Nagano Gold at 80-1 ew.
This sounds like the Gold Cup thread.
“there will be frogs and carp falling from the sky and you’ll need a yacht to get to the course. Elegant Escape will relish the swamp.”
I’m happy with the draw for Fierement and Waldgeist.
Backed SOFT LIGHT at average odds of 203.33 and he is currently my best winner of the Arc in terms of financial gain.
THEY ALL THOUGHT HE WAS SH*TE
BUT HE IS THE CHAMP SOFT LIGHT
Simple race really. Enable hoss of a lifetime, only two can potentially beat her. If she were to get beat then Japan would be financially better for oneself (20/1) but nothing amezzin and Ghaiyyath could be a monster but difficult to tell.
Any different result and I’ll wear the same underpants for 2 weeks straight. That’s about 3 days more than average but still, it’s a next level commitment.
Never said my weather websites better than yours, was a general comment that accuweather more often than not, are a mile out..
SOFT LIGHT is an outrageous price, cant believe I got matched at 200.0 and 210.00 what a machine this one is, the 3yo colt has a genuine chance of emulating his father AUTHORIZED who was sent off 11/10 fav to win the Arc but ran a shocker with dettori saying “this was not the same horse im used to riding” as he came back after the race.
His damsire ‘KING KENDOR of LONGCHAMP’ won 2 group 1 races at Longchamp and a group 3 here and loved this racecourse.SOFT LIGHT has had 6 races this season. The 1st race rpr isnt available but the next 5 recorder rprs were:
97, 100, 106, 105, 114
He has shown steady improvement from race 1 to 3 he then improved again in race 4 to record a 106rpr when only beaten a neck in a Chantilly group 2 by godolphins AL HALEEL.
On his 5th race he was beaten 4 lengths by JAPAN at a longchamp group 1 over Arc CD. The horse missed the break and had the carpark draw, hewas way off the pace in last place and turned for home from a very wide position he flew home widest of all and got a fast closing 5th without being touched in the closing stages as the horses from the front were away and gone. He can certainly close the gap on JAPAN (true race favourite) and its not inconceivable that he could improve past him from the fast pace this arc will be ran at. If there is a possibility he can beat Japan there is a very strong possibility he is the 2019 arc winner.
What he did in his 6th run last time was a massive spike upwards recording an rpr of 114 on his 1st ever run against elders.
This is a 3yo colt who is on a serious upward curve. He must be showing very positive signs that he has improved at home since as they have paid a small fortune to supplement him for this race, €120,000.00 cost to supplement him. You dont pay that money out without believing you have a genuine chance. He is also likely to improve for that first ever experience against his elders last time so could quite easily be running a rpr in the high 120s this time.
If the ground is riding heavy which I believe it will then this colt won by 3 lengths on his 2yo debut on heavy ground. The heavy (assuming we get it)could blunt key players and bring him right into the equation.In 2012 SOLEMIA was a 33/1 no hoper 4yo mare. Her best rpr of that season was 112 and that came back in April 1st time out. She ran to 124 to win the arc as heavy ground was a great leveller. She was drawn in magic stall 6. SOFT LIGHT is drawn in magic draw 6.
Trainer J Rouget has always been unlucky in the arc so far but is currently on fire with 7 wins from his last 15 runners and comes into the arc in the form of his life.
Legendary japanese jockey Yutaka Take could be on the ride of his life here. The Monday morning Racing Post front page headline could read ‘MAN FROM JAPAN BEATS JAPAN’.
SOFT LIGHT at 210.00 could be THE SPECIAL ONE. The flat winner of a lifetime. Definite chance here absolutely sensational Arc winner expected.
How can I possibly lose this race? I have potentially the two best 3yo colts in the world in JAPAN and SOFT LIGHT and I also have the DUBAWI/GALILEO freak horse ‘THE MONSTER’ GHAIYYATH. Im so confident I have this race all sewn up. Absolutely brimming with confidence.
ENABLE has nowhere to hide this time.
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