June 2, 2006 at 00:12 #2739FlatSeasonLoverMember
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Echelon is a 3/1f on the tissue but it is currently trading at 13/8 on Betfair and I don’t think 3/1 will be seen. She is obviously in good form at present, comes from an in form yard, and has the master of Epsom, Kieran Fallon on board. Her comeback run this year was pretty impressive, particulary considering the quick time she clocked (Coconut Squeak 4th and looks held) and with further improvement possible and the trip and ground in her favour it is easy to see why 3/1 has not materialised. I think 13/8 is plenty short enough however as she now has 9-9 to carry today and has plenty to find on the RPR. She is plainly an improving horse but I’m keen to take her on and there are several viable alternatives.
8f on Good ground may prove to be ideal for Bahia Breeze who has alarmingly drifted to 17/1 on Betfair. The lack of confidence is a worry, as is the 2/10 career wins but her best piece of form was over this distance and going and she must be respected. With the element of doubt already in my mind, the trainer form and the fact she hasn’t reproduced her 2yo form means I must pass her over.
Coconut Squeak will be hard to peg back if she can bowl along in front, but there will be others finishing strongly and she was held by Echelon last time. Musicanna was a well backed favourite last time but she found little and finished down the field. However there are reasons for excusing this as she may not have stayed the extra furlong and she may have need the run as it was her reappearance. Her overall record is very encouraging and the trainer couldn’t be doing better and with Jamie Spencer on board I expect this to reverse placings with Bahia Breeze and go very close.
Shersha has had a busy career but her best form still leaves her short here and she hasn’t won anything beyond listed class. The ground is fine and the trip should be okay but i don’t think she’ll be good enough.
Tarfah has to be taken seriously considering she is 5/1 in the market and has the highest RPR of these. There are certainly question marks though as she has been off the racecourse for a year and ran below her best last time. The market suggests she will be ready for this and a return to her best would see her win this or at least go very close, and those performances were over 8f. I think there are sufficient doubts to take this on, although I will have one eye on it during the race particulary with Frankie on board.
Zayn Zen may need further on this sort of ground and her best performances have been on the all-weather so she is opposable, while Suzy Bliss hasn’t shown enough in two starts this year to win this and they have tried her already over different trips and with different underfoot conditions.
Nantyglo is certainly one to be interested in as she receives 12/15lb off her older opponents. Her reappearance this season was certainly impressive, as she improved for the trip for 8f and perhaps for the time away from the racetrack. That listed race looks quite weak now, but you couldn’t have asked for more than that, and I’m relectant to take her on with her getting so much weight and looking the type to improve. (from in from M Bell stable as well)
The other two three year olds with 8-8 are Suzy Bliss, who I have passed over, and Saabiq. Saabiq may have found 10f too far last time and has had a crack at some good races, but I think this race will take some winning, and as she has only won once, and with her having something to find. I’m going to pass her over. (Is 47/1 on betfair as well and is continuing to drift.
My conclusion is that Musicanna should go very close, and Nantyglo should go very close off her light weight. The odds for these two are very fair and the biggest challenge may come from the dark horse Tarfah rather than Echelon who I have laid for a place.
What are other people’s opinions on this race? (The other two big races have already been covered on here)June 2, 2006 at 05:25 #72742
A very interesting race. Echelon makes a lot of appeal at 3/1 but not at 13/8. Conditions should be absolutely perfect for her, Stoutes fillies are flying and she has Fallon on board. Barely a negative. A penalty but I don’t think I’d be put off by that. has to go very close. Big danger could be Tarfah who is a filly I like and has already showed form that entitles her to go very close here. Musicanna has solid form but would maybe prefer a bit softer ground. I expect the winner to come from these three. Put a gun to my head and I’d choose Echelon.June 2, 2006 at 07:43 #72743davidbradyMember
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Won’t be having a bet in this but Tarfah looks interesting. She definitely has the ability to win this. Butler hasn’t had a runner for a while now so you’ve got to presume that he thinks they are ready to go now.June 2, 2006 at 08:03 #72744davidjohnsonMember
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Those thinking of backing Tarfah should be aware that since her lasst start she was due to run in the States but was withdrawn after going lame and then shed got sick afterwards. Not sure what the ground will be but most of Musicanna’s form is on good or softer and there would have to be doubts about her if it got too quick.June 2, 2006 at 13:23 #72745
I got stronger and stronger on Echelon as the race approached and guess what didn’t have a penny on. Is there anything more annoying?
Fantastic ride from Fallon, absolute magic. Can see money continuing to pour on Horatio Nelson no one rides Epsom better.June 2, 2006 at 13:30 #72746LUKEMember
- Total Posts 271
I took the 9/4 Echelon-where did you see 3/1-Ladbrokes had her very short this morning.June 2, 2006 at 13:33 #72747
Quote: from LUKE on 2:30 pm on June 2, 2006[br]I took the 9/4 Echelon-where did you see 3/1-Ladbrokes had her very short this morning.
I think 3/1 was the tissue price last night. I wanted to hear the jockey’s comments on the ground before parting with cash. Gutted now lol.
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