Pricesize

[billion]

Thanks

Discretedata

I hate this scenario and admitting (with embarrasment) that figures are not my thing and despite your kindness with posting the spreadsheet I really cannot understand it.

I think I will crawl back into a large hole and admit defeat.

Thanks to you and

Formath

but will leave it at that.

Billy's Outback Shack

[Formath]

Taunton 3.30

Credit Swap 7/2
Arrayan 7/2
Ajman 13/2

[Formath]

Another day another dollar with the same theme but a different approach – The price is right, come on down!

A respected pundit’s ratings where only those shorter than true odds in a race by my conversion have been priced for consideration.
This means by my calculation the odds shown are the shortest acceptable as far as may be ascertained before the race according to the informed information.

Musselburgh 3.00 (priced to RP forecast of 109%)
Quito de Tresor 11/4
Devotion To Duty 5/1
Amir Pasha 5/2
Rolecarr 3/1

Musselburgh 4.10 (priced to RP forecast of 113.5%)
Zitenka 11/2
Dark Ben 4/1
Nelliedonethat 5/1
Festival King 11/4

Kempton 3.45 (priced to RP forecast of 106%)
Pasco 5/4
Punchestowns 15/8
Bugsy’s Boy 11/4

Kempton 4.20 (priced to RP forecast of 110.5%)
Alderburn 5/1
Soixante 11/4
Plein Pouvoir 3/1
Carrickmines 5/1

[Formath]

Back to my ratings today converted to recommended overround odds. So the prices shown are the rock-bottom to consider by my calculation.

Newbury 2.25 (overround 110.5%)
Riverside Theatre 7/4
What A Friend 5/2
Fair Along 11/2

Newbury 3.00 (overrround 109%)
French Opera 6/5
Tchico Polo 95/40
Cornas 11/2

Leopardstown 3.15 (overround 113.5%)
Joncol 11/4
Mister Trix 10/3
Kempes 11/2
China Rock 15/2

Ayr 3.20 (overround 110.5%)
Diamond Frontier 5/2
Quicuyo 11/4
Raysrock 10/3

Warwick 2.10 (overround 113.5%)
Chance Du Roy 95/40
Latanier 7/2
Fiendish Flame 4/1

[Formath]

I am all behind again today (the wife has tried to get me on a diet ).
I am really only interested in trying to calculate value odds and I don’t care how I get there. These odds were calculated after compiling a CV Baker platform, which is a modified version of the Van der Wheil (who he? ) elementary mechanical procedure.

Exeter 3.10 (Is definity a nailed on cert?)(0vveround 109%)

1. 7/2 Bakbenscher, LTO kept blundering -15L 3/10, has to jump
2. 10/3 Bench Warrent, LTO chased headed rallied kept on well -1.75? 2/7, can be an iffy jumper
3. 5/2 Definity, LTO jumped well led made rest in command won +6L 1/5, was progressive hurdler
4. 7/2 Dover’s Hill, LTO prominent mistakes led headed weakened -12L 5/13, cheekpieces tried
5. 11/2
6. 60/1

(Anyone wishing to have the CV Baker info please send me an email in a PM)

[billion]

Hi

Formath

The drive for "V" does look to be all consuming and I do not have a problem with that and here comes the "but" (please note the small b) can you please tell what your interpretation of it is.

Again I stress, just like yourself I have utterly no desire to debate the why’s and wherefores of the subject just simply a desire to understand your perspective and goal regarding these postings.

To enquire is to learn and then advance said a wise man

.

Billy's Outback Shack

[Formath]

Bill,
It’s a stonewall fact that if you don’t achieve ‘value’ from your bets in the long-term you will lose, end of story really

This is what Professor Frank George wrote:
"When you bet it must be a vslue bet. Once you have selected the likely winner it is essential to ‘assign’your own price to it – the true odds the horse should be placed at in your opinion. If those odds are, for example, 3/1 and you can get 4/1, the bet is a value bet – the majority are giving you a bigger margin than you expected – to yield a higher return than average."

Braddock in his opus fielded a more pragmatic strategy:
"A ‘fair’ price for a horse in a race in which there is no foreseeable competition is even money. If there is a serious danger to a selection the backer must look for longer odds to compensate for the additional risk; 2/1 is the least accepatble odds.
Two serious rivals, the backer must look for 3/1 or more; 3 rivals warrents 4/1 or more and so on."

I rest my case

[billion]

Hi

Formath

.

Thanks for the reply, sadly it leaves me where I have always been regarding "V" and hope you did not misjudge my question as an attempt to open said can. My interest was only to find what galvanised you into a bet.

I will say the interpretation of the quotes fits nicely into my suggestion that any selection should be greater than the forecast starting price, after all the odds complier is doing all the hard work on my behalf with all the "dangers" priced up and easy to see.

Do you believe staking should then be related to "v"?

Billy's Outback Shack

[Formath]

I could be ‘off piste’ with this race on the AW surface (or should that be the other way round?

Anyway going again with the CV Baker platform to a 116.5% ovveround:

Wolverhampton 4.10
The Lock Master 6/4 (shortest acceptable odds)
Elijah Pepper 7/4
Black Coffee 85/40

[billion]

Formath

.

Why do I like BLACK COFFEE ?

Well, knowing your predilection for "speed" I can quote it is Lawrence Taylor’s nap for today, which may be a good starting point.

The search for value (or perhaps I should say the best possible price available considering the field) Mr. Braddock would say 1/1 without any danger, 2/1 with only one danger, 3/1 with possibly 3 dangers etc. and this again is a formula I can understand, even if I cannot work out the merit of the other runners and so I opt for the easy route.

My morning paper predicts BLACK COFFE as the 9/2 favourite and so with two possible scenarios: –

1) as Fc Sp favourite there are no considered dangers, therefore 1/1 is good.

2) if I can get better than 9/2 the price will be good, IMO.

With Odds Checker market available I have found 5/1 with V Chandler (BOG) although betfair was showing 67/10. Sure betfair makes the bet more worthwhile but I do not want to put £2 at risk on a whim and so elect for the 5/1.

In my heart I know I have not taken the value price and ask you not to consider this, therefore putting the betfair price to one side can I have your opinion regarding all I have quoted and again with the mantra of "Price is King" and knowing unless I do not achieve value from my bets I will only lose in the long-term, so will I have any chance of a yacht in the Caribbean.

Billy's Outback Shack

[Formath]

Bill,

Your assessment is correct in that prior to the off Black Coffee
represented an overlay bet and if your opinion was that there were no dangers then according to Braddock even money or better was OK.

I can only refer you to the principles of racing as described by Braddock:

1. ‘Does the horse have the ability to win a race of this type?’.(I would suggest looking back not further than a runners last 6 outings to make a judgement about class/ability by course class and performance).
2. ‘Are the circumstances right for that ability to be shown on this occasion?’. (Again considering the last 6 outings as a minimum, check that the distance and going are suitable).
3. ‘Do connections expect the horse to win or go close?’ (Check the market for early prices and shortly before the off looking for genuine springers and drifters).

[billion]

Here I go again

Formath

and I do hope you do not mind me bending your ear or even picking your brains.

The likes of these good people and without reservation I do mean "good" because I am sure they are far more expert within the subject than I can ever hope to be, do enjoy pontificating about their methods and ideas used and proven by themselves.

I suggest they arrived at their own formula via experimentation of different ideas and this is the precise ideology I am endeavouring to bring to the table and if possible in a simpler way.

The Braddock principles 1,2,3 as quoted, dare I suggest 1 & 2 may be covered by the betting forecast compliler and is a tool I use because it suits my simplistic approach thus saving some tedious work.

Principle 3 is interesting and open for some debate. The logic is there for all to see But (with a big B) whilst waiting to see if the price comes in the value is disappearing, if not gone but by taking the reverse approach of getting on early with BOG you may be landing far better odds and should the price drift, well, even better.

There is a school of thought which believes it better to "lump on" the bigger the price gets.

Billy's Outback Shack

[billion]

Allow me to "hitch a ride" here for today please

Formath

in the interest of deference to this thread.

BLACK COFFFE failed me with my first try at finding what I thought was the best "speed" horse, the price was good but the result was sadly not. However if Morton Coles is correct and "Price is King" I am not too disturbed.

Looking on the ATR site today – Lawrence Taylor – has napped King Chorister fc 4/1 but being only available (early) at 7/2 I will as they say "Let it run".

His NB choice is Copper Sound fc at 5/1 and I can only find 9/2 and so I will let that one run as well.

However, SNOW PATROL 2.00 Folkestone forecast at 100/30 2f and I have landed 5/1 with bet365 is my "Best Price" selection.

Again I am working from D Mirror betting forecast and if the compiler is any good (I happen to think he/she is) there is one danger (the favourite) and so getting 1 point larger than forecast should therefore make it "value" (small v), I am happy because I am beating the FcSp.

Forgive me for butting in but you will be pleased to know it is unlikely I will be posting for a couple of days.

Billy's Outback Shack

[Formath]

Bill,
I would not bet on the Folkestone 2.00 with your money , however, as a comparison to your time expert I have priced up the Adrian Massey ratings for the race.

Folkestone 2.00 a class 5 hcap hurdle over 17.5f on GS. My opinion is that owing to it’s low class any form may be inconsistent? Conditional jockeys may not help matters? No winning form in the fields last 3 outings? No course or distance winners? Your forecast odds may be skewed owing to the withdrawal
of Little Roxy improving the chance of the remainder?

Folkestone 3.00 (Massey ratings priced to a 100% book with current Betfair odds in brackets)(Any runner out to 6/1 can be considered)

5. 10/3 (5.3)Quam Celerine (weight-change -2lbs)
3. 7/2 (4.6)Earl Of Thomond (+2lbs)
7. 9/2 (6) Snow Patrol (+8lbs)
1. 11/2 (5.7) Mut’ab (same weight)

4. 13/2 (5.2) (+24lbs?)(14yo aged?)
2. 13/1 (17) (+4lbs)
6. 100/1 (26) (-2lbs)

Comment: Timeform go Earl Of Thomond, Spider Boy. IMO at current odds dutching Quam Celerine, Snow Patrol has to be considered, but not for me

[billion]

Good evening

Formath

.

Under normal circustances I would have swerved a conditional riders race and so we are in agreement there – this is progress

Morton Coles you say based his ideas and methodology very strongly on two factors (I am sure there are more) Speed and Price.

Therefore if we find the fastest horse and can get the best price we MAY not go too far wrong.

This is not a DUMMIES GUIDE but I am applying this idea to this Dummie (me).

SPEED – to my knowledge ATR & TopSpeed (RP) are both easily accessible but I have chosen ATR, Lawrence Taylor’s first (top) six, starting with the nap then NB and then as they come. In fairness I do not have a clue about speed or Mr Taylor but it is as good a starting point as I can think of.

PRICE is King! Well, nothing matters other than the price sayeth "Mort". Sadly I cannot grasp how to price a race and therefore opt for the easy route of the forecast starting prices and look for the first (working down the list of six) at a figure better than the FcSp, not hard to do but possibly obtaining better prices than the other option of getting one point more than the number in front of the selection within said forecast. If selection is fav, 1/1 required, 2nd fav. 2.1, 3rd fav, 3/1 etc.

My thinking is although not quite as "Mort" would like it but sort of embracing similar principles and if Price is King I should turn a profit in due course or at least not lose too much.

So, yesterday BLACK COFFE lost and today SNOW PATROL placed, it cannot be denied the object is getting closer and I did think about staking each way which may have returned my stake money.

It is very much in doubt if I can post tomorrow and then every chance I may also miss Thursday – No don’t cheer so loud – but what I will do is stop hijacking this great thread of yours and within a couple of days start an experimental thread along the stated lines just to see if "Mort" can do it.

Billy's Outback Shack

[Formath]

Wherever I divert to I always come back to Morton Coles’s (good old Mort ) mantra ‘the only thing that really matters is the odds.’ Now Mort only considered speed to arrive at his odds but I prefer to employ eight filters that are rated and converted to ‘form’ prices. Take the Ludlow 3.10 not a fantastic contest where the current market indicates the probable from No’s 7, 2, 6. (Lawrence Taylor goes 7, 2, 6 also):

Ludlow 3.10 (the odds shown are from my converted form ratings and so are independent of the market)

1. 25/1
2. 5/1 Akarshan (Williams top track trainer)
3. 12/1
4. 80/1
5. 16/1 D?
6. 13/2 Roc De Guye
7. 3/1 Esteem G?
8. 10/1
9. 12/1
10. 14/1

Just my opinion: Esteem looks well in compared to Akarshan but they look to be overlays, so my wager would be Roc De Guye each-way.

In comparison converting the hcap ratings to odds:

RPR goes – Thunder Child 5/1, Akarshan 6/1, Esteem 11/2, Meneur 11/2
D.Mail Formcast goes – Thunder Child 4/1, Esteem 5/1, Meneur 5/1, Akarshan 11/2

In the end it’s all just opinion until the race is run

[billion]

Oh dear, you should have taken the 5/1 (AKARSHAN) and I would not mind a side bet to say you did

Billy's Outback Shack

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