Pricesize

[Formath]

Pricesize is a simple system not to be confused with Pricewise a sophisticated selection

Basically just rating by market, recent form, overall form, C&D,hcap and then converting to a 100% book. My mantra is that of old-time pro Morton Coles, "The only thing that really matters is the odds."

Lingfield (My independent odds listed)
3.10
Master D’Or 5/2
Topless 3/1
Kasimali 5/1
4.15
Russellstown Boy 2/1
Killfinnan Castle 5/2
4.45
Top Smart 13/8
Kalamill 10/3

[billion]

Hiya’

Formath

My mantra is that of old time pro Morton Coles, "The only thing that really matters is the odds"

An interesting quote and although a little late in life I am starting to see the light, although I am not sure it is the

ONLY

thing that matters but perhaps that should be left for another day.

I know not Morton Coles, however could you please enlighten me further.

Also you have quoted prices alongside your selections ubder the bracketed heading "My independent odds", be a fine chap and explain a little more about them please.

To refine my query, just a tad, I am confused by TOPLESS 3/1 as I have already taken 5/1 with bet365 earlier (perhaps I was lucky and the price has collapsed since).

Billy's Outback Shack

[billion]

Google works – OK!

I have "Googled" Morton Coles (not too much info as yet) but for those interested there is an extensive thread which is very detailed and for the simpleton like me is hard to grasp on: –

UK Betting Tips – ProPrice – "The Only Thing That Matters Is The Odds"

Once more ProPrice, as per our chappie

Formath

quotes

HIS

prices but quite where they come from is anyone’s guess.

Billy's Outback Shack

[billion]

Another thread (via Google) on UK Betting Tips forum via this chap Proprice is headed WISER PRICE for any that may wish to read.

My thoughts, for what they are worth and only for nincompoops as per me, with little understanding of VALUE and how to assess it.

Take a well regarded Betting Forecast (i.e Racing Post, Sporting Life etc) and use the shown price of selected horse as the benchmark.

It has been suggested to beat the FcSp by 2 points but in truth this to me is not quite correct and I suggest to beat the FcSp by a percentage margin of your choice.

Only if this margin can be achieved will it become a valid selection then, truly the only thing that matters is the odds and it surely must be a VALUE selection.

Billy's Outback Shack

[billion]

Formath

I am endebted to you for all you have sent me via pm as requested via an earlier thread.

Mrs B is further endebted because as she said

"That lot will keep you quiet and out of my hair for a good while"

All that remains is for me to digest and try to understand, which may be easier said than done.

Billy's Outback Shack

[billion]

Mr Formath, Sir

.

Respect!

I had a headache before I started "the read" which is taking me to places that I have previously desperately tried to avoid going to and having tried hard to remain true to the KISS concept.

On first speed read and I do believe it will take more than a quick skim to get close to understanding, it is re-enforcing my thoughts that getting the best possible price should, I hope, enable you to either lose less or win more.

I take particular regard to the concept that satisfaction can or should be gained from a loser at better than SP rather than a winner at less than SP.

Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear, how many times have I claimed "A winner is a winner at any price", the words are coming back to bite me

.

I have not completed my reading, the headache is getting far worse (I jest not) and have serious doubt regarding my ability and resolve to follow the concept as structured, however, I am convinced some good will come from this even if at this moment I am not quite sure how.

Billy's Outback Shack

[billion]

Formath

.

A quote from Morton Coles when refering to his odds calculation(s) etc.

" . . . . they are the result of a lifetimes experience"

It is with much sadness when I say most of my lifetime is gone, done, past and there really is not too much of it remaining and so if it took him a lifetime there really is little hope for me to get very far with this.

But if there is a short cut to getting better prices by golly I will try to find it.

Without getting into the arena of ones own compilation of odds, dare I suggest two stepping stones: –

A) only betting with offices offering Best Odds Guaranteed

B) taking a price better than the forecast tissue.

BOG allows for those times (and they do happen quite regularly) when your chosen horse drifts in the market.

A good forecast offers a calculated opinion (computed, dare one say by an expert) as an opinion of each horses chances.

I do believe Morton Coles makes reference to "verification" (of ones own speed calculation) and would not the forecast be of some verification?

Not being a "Speed Man" may I ask your opinion of ATR’s Lawrence Taylor’s ratings and perhaps how they can be used etc.

Pass the paracetamol please . . .

Billy's Outback Shack

[discretedata]

Formath

Have I got this right, for example?

Horse A rated 40
Horse B rated 25
Horse C rated 20
Horse D rated 10

Total of ratings = 100 (40+30+20+10)

Horse A’s odds

= (100-40)/40 = 1.5

= 6/4

Horse B’s odds

= (100-25)/25 = 3.0

= 3/1

Horse C’s odds

= (100-20)/20 = 4.0

= 4/1

Horse D’s odds

= (100-10)/10 = 9.0

= 9/1

[billion]

G’day to you

Formath

I hope you are well and in a generous mood.

Hands up, I have always shied away from this kind of subject, quite simply because I have never understood the mathmatics (number dyslexia comes to mind) and KISS has been the easier route.

Please indulge me if you will be so kind.

To quote your work, The only TRUE CHANCE of any horse is one less than the number running i.e. 11 runners = a true chance of 10/1.

TRUE ODDS you say is impossible to calculate and therefore only an opinion is possible.

So far so good – I am with you.

Once an opinion of the odds has been achieved it is then the punters choice to accept or decline whatever odds are available. Hence THE ONLY THING THAT MATTERS IS THE ODDS.

But knowing the strike rate comes into this equation –

somewhere

– and this is where I am starting to lose the plot.

I agree to improve the strike rate is of huge value but after all it can be sorted as work in progress but what comes first, trying to put this is some kind of coherent way when not fully understanding the concept is a tad more than difficult and so perhaps it is time to offer some figures and hope you will reply just how to CALCULATE THE ODDS.

10% win strike rate – 40% win & place combined strike rate

The figures are actual but am not sure if they do or can be related to the odds calculation.

I do hope my meanderings make some kind of sense and do not read too much like the nincompoop I feel.

Billy's Outback Shack

[yorkiedips]

Firstly Formath, please do not think I am gatecrashing this thread but I recently read something that may add value to this discussion and perhaps assist Billion

Billion – If the number crunching is not your cup of tea, then a quick way to eliminate quite a few runners could be to use the following method:

Dismiss any horses that are a longer price than the number of runners in the reace

i.e. 16 runners, dismiss anything above 16/1, 8 runners 8/1, 5 runner 5/1 etc etc. Read recently ( in a recent "The racing Forum" I think) that historically 80 – 85% of races are won by horses that are priced under the number of runners in the race. Can’t remember if this is all races or just handicaps….which I know could make a big difference

Can anyone verify if the above is definitely true and clarify whether all races or just handicaps?

Also has anyone investigated this further re any variations in terms or number of runners or type of race, ergo could there be a race size in terms of runners or type that is an optimum number to use this principle? Always looking for an effective way to eliminate a number of runners, especially Mon – Fri when due to work commitments time is far more limited!!

yorkiedips

[billion]

Thanks

Yorkiedips

.

It does not matter if the suggestion is original or not but broadcasting something of interest is always of value to someone.

I quite like the idea and will certainly incorporate the suggestion somewhere or somehow within this ongoing search to find VALUE in an easy way.

Although off subject slightly but in a vague sort of way connected to the "numbers" suggestion I will quote the Chris Fulwood (Saturday Mirror) once more when asked readers for system suggestions, one was put forward to back the last horse quoted in the Mirror FcSp’s and recent results (possibly freak) were amazing.

So perhaps there could be some mileage in,
a) not exceeding the number ratio to odds
b) not going beyond the tissue shown

It is all food for thought but as I say I will keep an eye out for odds to runner numbers.

Billy's Outback Shack

[billion]

A question for

yorkiedips

or any member reader who may be familiar with his suggested concept.

GINGER LAD running today at Sedgefield 3.55 where it has 9 declared runners.

yorkiedips

suggested proposal would put a line through any runners over 9/1.

My betting forcast (Mirror) suggests GINGER LAD will go off 10/1

Early price taken 10/1 with BetFred but has since come in to 8/1.

Remaining prices are between 7/1 & 9/1 at posting time.

BetFred was perhaps out of line with the other bookies and so I guess timing will have to come into, should it be considered beyond the 9/1 line?

Or maybe the guide could be taken from the betting forecast.

Billy's Outback Shack

[Formath]

First of all I have to apologise for this thread as it was not really my intention to open the value can of worms again . I am sure if you check previous threads you will find that it has been discussed ad nauseum.

Discretdata – Your figures only represent a 95% book.

Billion – your thoughts opposite the info I sent are correct. I stand by my advice that you should concentrate on improving your strike-rate rather than seeking elusive value. However, you need to keep a betting record so that you can check your capability. If you achieve 30% consistently, which is excellent, then you should not as a general rule bet shorter than 2/1, except on the odd occasion when you consider your selection to be nailed on.

Bill, as today’s cards are rather poor quality from a form viewpoint here is an exercise hoping to show that ratings and therefore the odds calculated from them are just the rating compilers interpretation of form and any other factors considered.

Southwell 3.45 (my own ratings converted to a ‘fair odds’ 100% tissue. RPR indicates a possible 112%)

1. 33/1
2. 9/2 Lucky Dan
3. 33/1
4. 16/1
5. 7/4 Elhamri (Done/Turner)
6. 7/2 Ace Of Spies (Done/ Milczarek – 2nd string?)
7. 16/1
8. 16/1

By comparison here are the ratings of Formcast, RPR, Patternform converted to a 100% tissue. (RP betting forecast in brackets)

1. (14/1) – 9/1 – 12/1 – 35/1
2. (4/1) – 4/1 – 4/1 – 13/2
3. (5/1) 40/1 – 15/2 – 17/2
4. (12/1) – 6/1 – 15/2 – 9/2
5. (11/4) – 7/2 – 4/1 – 5/1
6. (7/2) – 6/1 – 25/1 – 13/2
7. (14/1) – 6/1 – 15/2 – 17/2
8. (10/1) – 40/1 – 11/2 – 13/2

My thoughts on the compilers are if you follow them stick to the same one through thick and thin, with the proviso that you maintain a betting record so that you are aware of the strike-rate percentage and only wager generally when longer odds are available.

[billion]

Formath

First of all let me say I feel this is not opening the can of "Value" worms yet again and not asking WHAT IS VALUE.

I have formerly expressed my personal hate for the "V" word which can mean so many different things to so many different people and I very much doubt if ever there can or will ever be a consensus of agreement as to what value truly is.

Via my somewhat clumsy and probing postings I hoped to discover who was MORTON COLES and then delve into the concept of "The only thing that matters is the odds".

I can see if anyone has a known and consistent strike rate it is only possible to make profit if the odds taken are greater. Lets argue that my suggested SR of 1 winner in 10 (10%, even I with my aversion to maths can work that one out) then a profit is only possible at prices of 11/1.

I wholly embrace all of this but only up to this given point.

You have very kindly replied and put up an example and understanding the example is where I am hitting my personal brick wall. I truly would love to understand what you are showing us and am sure it is equally frustrating for your good self when this fool that I am is cannot grasp what you are showing.

I feel the only possibilty of applying Morton Coles concept hinges on equating the ratings to odds. I have no desire to create my own speed figure rating when there some readily available such as TopSpeed, Lawrence Taylor etc. As yet I do not know the given SR for these but how do I convert them into a related odds which I can then use?

Billy's Outback Shack

[discretedata]

Re.my earlier post – apologies for the typos which crept in. I’ll try again if I may?

Have I got this one right, for example?

Horse A rated 40
Horse B rated 25
Horse C rated 25
Horse D rated 10

Total of ratings = 100 (40+25+25+10)

Horse A’s odds = (100-40)/40 = 1.5 = 6/4

Horse B’s odds = (100-25)/25 = 3.0 = 3/1

Horse C’s odds = (100-25)/25 = 3.0 = 3/1

Horse D’s odds = (100-10)/10 = 9.0 = 9/1

[discretedata]

Formath

I feel the only possibilty of applying Morton Coles concept hinges on equating the ratings to odds. I have no desire to create my own speed figure rating when there some readily available such as TopSpeed, Lawrence Taylor etc. As yet I do not know the given SR for these but how do I convert them into a related odds which I can then use?

Did you have something similar to this in mind, billion?

https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AjriKHhwpRQQdFFLemtUUGk1VUlVaFBmWjZ2YVh2UHc&authkey=COiIzZUP&hl=en#gid=0

[Formath]

Discretedata

If those were the ratings in a race that I was converting to a 100% tissue the odds would come out like this:

40 21/20
25 3/1
25 3/1
10 60/1

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