Ok, i’ve had a few beers and am talking crap, but here goes.
I’ve always loved the fascination of how a race or an event is priced up for betting and whether the favourite is actually the favourite to win. I then worked out that in any event where the only possible outcomes are WIN or LOSE, then any ‘odds against’ favourite should not really win, as in reality it is favourite to LOSE, not win.
So how can this be? Well it’s very very simple to be honest.
Remember, the above is only the case where the favourite to win a race or an event is odds against and the only possible outcomes are WIN or LOSE.
Ok, here is the scenario. We have a 4 horse race priced up as follows,
Horse 1 is clearly the favourite to win the race, but in terms of the outcome of the race then Horse 1 is far more likely to lose than to win and the odds reflect this. This is because, if the only possible outcome for Horse 1 is to WIN or LOSE, then if it is 6/4 to win, it will be somewhere near 1/2 to lose. This means then that the most likely outcome of this 6/4 favourite is for it to lose as this price is 1/2. You will then work out that if you combine the odds of Horses 2, 3 and 4, their combined odds of winning should match the price of Horse 1 to lose (about 1/2).
Hope that all makes sense – but I told you it was pointless lol.
So next time you back a 6/4 favourite, remember the actually price of it losing is 1/2, meaning it is more likeley to lose than win.