The home of intelligent horse racing discussion
The home of intelligent horse racing discussion

Pedigrees: Ancestor duplications

Home Forums Tipping and Research Trends, Research And Notebooks Pedigrees: Ancestor duplications

Viewing 14 posts - 1 through 14 (of 14 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • #12542
    MDeering
    Member
    • Total Posts 1688

    I’m reading the following pedigree:

    http://www.bloodhound.net.au/cgi-bin/tped?u_id=FS6475&r_id=260&s_id=43091000&d_id=52578984

    Down the bottom, it provides information about ancestor duplications.

    Eg. Crafty Admiral 6m x 5f; Native Dancer 6f, 6f x 6m.

    What do these mean, and how do I interpret them in terms of racetrack ability?

    Thanks kindly in advance.

    #246851
    wit
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2165

    best illustrative example there is probably:

    Natalma 5m,5f,6m x 6m

    The bit before the "x" refers to the sire’s line, and the bit after the "x" to the dam’s line.

    On the sire’s line, top half of the table, look at the 5th and 6th generation back.

    5th generation back, Natalma produced one male ancestor in Northern Dancer ("5m") and one female ancestor in Spring Adieu ("5f").

    6th generation back, Natalma produced one male ancestor in Northern Dancer ("6m").

    On the dam’s line, bottom half of the table, Natlama shows up again in the 6th generation back, producing a male ancestor in Northern Dancer ("6m").

    As regards what particular duplication patterns are thought to mean in terms of racetrack ability – "pass".

    best regards

    wit

    #246854
    Gerald
    Member
    • Total Posts 4293

    Haven’t read about nicks, so I’m not sure whether it is based on inbreeding.

    By duplicating certain horses in a pedigree, one is trying to to increase the positive bits – however it might also increase the negative bits as well.

    There are dominant and recessive genes. A recessive gene will only become obvious when it is matched up on the other side.

    BB Bay
    BC Bay
    CB Bay
    CC Chestnut

    Sorry – just random jottings to get a discussion going.

    #246855
    MDeering
    Member
    • Total Posts 1688

    That clears things up a bit, thanks Wit.

    With your final comment, I therefore assume this information is most useful to the breeding industry, and somewhat pointless from a punting P-O-V?

    #246879
    wit
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2165

    there are probably at least as many punting theories as there are breeding theories, so i wouldn’t exclude the possibility that someone somewhere may quietly be making a punting fortune by reference to duplication of influential ancestors.

    all i know is i couldn’t tell you how to do it.

    the reason that duplication its highlighted on the breeding side is that there is a view that by reducing the gene pool or reducing the number of ancestors found in a pedigree, the chances for “genetic variation” to occur are also reduced.

    this extract may be of interest:

    =========================

    Without doubt the silliest and laziest theory is that there is no need to look beyond the parents or grandparents of any given foal.

    My research clearly shows that most top class racehorses are heavily linebred to influential ancestors beyond the fourth remove (generation).

    Even intensely inbred champions like Veandercross and Northerly.

    A perfect example of this is the mighty mare Sunline.

    If we were to look at just a 4th generation pedigree printout of her, all we would see is duplication of Northern Dancer via two sons (Danzig, Nijinsky II). Hardly convincing.

    However, when we look beyond the 4th remove we find “heavy” duplications of superior ancestors in the 6th to 9th generations which turn her pattern into a heavily desired one.

    But probability factors may not be kind to every foal born with this pattern.

    The resultant “dip” into the available gene pool where a foal inherits 50% of its genes from its father and 50% from its mother will be different even for full siblings.

    Although sometimes a superior pattern does produce 2 or 3 full brothers/sisters with superior racing class.

    In most of these cases the pedigree pattern is an outstanding one.

    Federico Tesio’s brilliant racehorse and sire Nearco is another great example.

    A 5th generation pedigree printout would only reveal duplications to St Simon, but a 7th to 9th generation printout reveals one of the masterpieces of modern breeding, including Angelica(sister to St Simon), heavy duplication of famous mare Pocahontas, and many other “special pedigree patterns” to siblings and close relatives.

    Imagine the thoroughbred world today without Nearco. There would be no Northern Dancer (Danzig, Nijinsky II, Nureyev), Nasrullah (Bold Ruler, Blushing Groom) or Turn-To (Halo, Sir Tristram).

    ========================================

    http://geneticinfluence.com.au/

    best regards

    wit

    #246882
    cormack15
    Keymaster
    • Total Posts 8992

    My understanding (limited) is that a ‘nick’ is simply a breeding pattern that has led to a better chance of a desirable characteristic being inherited. In racehorses racing ability is obviously the key characteristic.

    #246885
    wit
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2165

    i don’t know much about "nicks" either, but chef-de-race.com seems to have a view on them:

    =====================

    …In this article we will present our views about the currently fashionable theory of nicking, an idea that seems attractive on the surface but upon critical examination has, with some exceptions, a marginal scientific basis and is subject to gross misuse when accepted at face value.

    ======================

    http://www.chef-de-race.com/articles/br … istics.htm

    #246896
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    Imagine the thoroughbred world today without Nearco. There would be no Northern Dancer (Danzig, Nijinsky II, Nureyev), Nasrullah (Bold Ruler, Blushing Groom) or Turn-To (Halo, Sir Tristram).

    ========================================

    http://geneticinfluence.com.au/

    best regards

    wit

    Very interesting article that and the mention of Nearco. Archive the sire of the great Arkle was totaly useless………he couldn’t have won a 4 mile maiden chase against a bunch of polytrack sprinters he was so bad but his Sire Nearco I believe was unbeaten. The speed and class of winners always comes from somewhere back, but you could just about make a case for every horse bred to race……I suppose the top racing managers/buyers go right into all this but spotting an outstanding colt on looks at the sales really isn’t that difficult…….having the money to buy one is the hard part :) In my limited experience and it is limited it’s finding the faults which is more difficult…a jockey or a trainer will see things the layman will miss…so even the best bred horses in the world can go for next to nothing. These nicks I suppose are useful to know about pre-sales but thereworth nothing if the horse walks like a giraffe.

    I met Stacky once when he was advising Robert Sangster and he told me breeeding is ver important but at the end of the day there’s nothing to beat the eye…then you have hope you got it right………..as far as delving into each horses breeding back to the stoneage, to try and find a winner…….you’d have to be nuts

    #246906
    robert99
    Participant
    • Total Posts 899

    As far as punting goes to me breeding is a very weak indicator ie it may be helpful, say, about 20% of the time but misleading 80% of the time and you need corroborating information to know which.
    The simplistic theories all prove worthless whenever studied scientifically.

    The human and horse genome projects have made things even more complicated once it was discovered that DNA itself also starts varying. Genes usually occur in two copies, one inherited from each parent. Scherer etc found approximately 2,900 genes (more than 10 percent of the genes in the human genome) with variations in the number of copies of specific DNA segments. These differences in copy number can influence gene activity and ultimately an organism’s function. Same issue with horses as well as the nurture issues. Bobby was a lethal striker and brother Jack Charlton a dour defender etc.

    "Until now, our focus has been on examining evolution through either small SNP (single nucleotide polymorphisms ) changes or larger chromosomal alterations you can see under the microscope, because that’s what we could detect," Scherer said. "But now there’s a whole new class of mid-sized variants encompassing millions of nucleotides of DNA to consider."

    #246921
    cormack15
    Keymaster
    • Total Posts 8992

    Quote – "about 20% of the time"

    I’d say from a punting perspective it’s even less helpful than that.

    #247005
    MDeering
    Member
    • Total Posts 1688

    Interesting.

    Any suggestions on how much Robert Sangster’s initial success (matching up stallions and broodmares) was pot luck?

    #247226
    andyod
    Member
    • Total Posts 4012

    Sangster is supposed to have said that when he asked for advise he was told "match the best with the best and hope for the best"! That theory led him to Vincent I believe.

    #247329
    robert99
    Participant
    • Total Posts 899

    "When he was 28, Sangster bought Swettenham, a 200-acre stud farm in Cheshire. But perhaps the crucial event in Sangster’s early career came in October 1971 when, presiding over the Vernon Sprint Cup at Haydock, he met John Magnier, then a 23-year-old stud farmer from Co Cork and a friend of Vincent O’Brien.

    It was the birth of the Brethren. In fact, it seems to have been Magnier who came up with the idea of buying yearlings that might become class performers on the track, and then stallions which would command enormous fees at stud. With Magnier’s vision, Sangster’s money and O’Brien’s genius as a trainer, the partnership was to become an extraordinary success.

    Sangster was often described as lucky, but he did not see it that way: "I’m not a great believer in luck," he once said. "I walk under ladders all the time. Racing is a team game, and I’ve surrounded myself with the best players available."

    In 1985 Sangster had bought, for £6 million, Manton House, the famous stables near Marlborough in Wiltshire, and Manton became the centre of his racing operation in Britain. The first trainer he installed there was the former master of National Hunt, Michael Dickinson, who had trained the first five horses home in the 1983 Cheltenham Gold Cup. But the experiment was not a success. In 1986 – his first season – Dickinson sent out only four winners; Sangster sacked him. Dickinson was followed at Manton by Barry Hills, Peter Chapple-Hyam and, latterly, John Gosden.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/obituar … gster.html

    #247345
    kiwibloodstock
    Member
    • Total Posts 54

    If you go to this page on my website you can download a demo of TesioPower breed software, where you can look at the duplications, sex balanced duplications, siblings, cross matches, dosage report, tail lines and prominent ancestors. The software works out inbreeding co-eficient, xfactor etc and gives you readings on possibilities. lots of info contained in it. I think the demo is either 15 days or 30 uses. Dont worry, its not a sales pitch, lol. but it will make pedigree far more understandable for those who havent used it.
    http://kiwibloodstock.webs.com/apps/web … how/875876

Viewing 14 posts - 1 through 14 (of 14 total)
  • You must be logged in to reply to this topic.