Paul Nicholls blog on betfair

[no idea]

Silsol.
Came good at the end of last season with wins at Ayr and Newton Abbot, but he paid for those successes with a 20lb hike in the weights, so life could be tough for him now. And he did come in later than most of mine, so he will need this. But he was clearly a progressive horse last season and handles soft ground.

Must be some horse to win like it did when clearly in need of it or have the punters been put away again. I fancied it but did not back it on the back of this.

Lesson 1, never listen to the trainer.

[DiamondGeezer]

The more information there is out there, the more misinformation there is

[stevecaution]

If Paul Nicholls told Andy Stewart not to back Rocky Creek at Down Royal last time out, it makes you wonder if he told him to turn his TV off at 3 O’Clock this afternoon and book a search party for the horse at Newbury?

Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

[highflyer1]

Oh for god’s sake stop complaining. Few if any trainers in the country would be as bold as Nicholls, to have his predictions each Saturday shot down when they didn’t meet the punters’ expectations?

Can you imagine Henderson or Pipe having the balls to do it? Give the guy some credit.

[cormack15]

Didn’t Henderson have a similar thing, a column in the RP. Don’t a few do it? McCain and Elliot were/are also on BF. It often pays to follow Nicholls when he is bullish about one in that column. He’s not a guy who likes to be seen to be wrong.

[Nathan Hughes]

Mullins had a column a while back in the racing post but I couldn’t make head nor tail of it. Printed in Irish so it was. To be fair to Willie though every horse he has is just grand, running well and with high expectations so it was a pointless exercise. Would be nice to read the thoughts of the lesser known trainers in these columns from time to time.

Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026

[cormack15]

"it’ll hose up today so get your granny’s pension book and rob every penny and lump on"

or

"won’t be off a yard as we’re plotting a coup at Lingfield one Thursday night in February"

That the sort of thing we’re looking for Nathan? Right with you.

[Nathan Hughes]

Yes boss
In a roundabout way though as we’d want a bit of a price.

Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026

[obiwankenobi]

Best to look at the blog for what it is. Nicholl’s gets paid to do it and Betfair hope people will bet off the back off it and re-coup their investment. As another poster just said, it would be nice to see other people featured.

[JJMSports]

If Paul Nicholls told Andy Stewart not to back Rocky Creek at Down Royal last time out, it makes you wonder if he told him to turn his TV off at 3 O’Clock this afternoon and book a search party for the horse at Newbury?

Love this.

[Gingertipster]

Silsol.
Came good at the end of last season with wins at Ayr and Newton Abbot, but he paid for those successes with a 20lb hike in the weights, so life could be tough for him now. And he did come in later than most of mine, so he will need this. But he was clearly a progressive horse last season and handles soft ground.

Must be some horse to win like it did when clearly in need of it or have the punters been put away again. I fancied it but did not back it on the back of this.

Lesson 1, never listen to the trainer.

Horse that was very "progressive" when last seen (in the Spring of last year) shows more progression again on first start this season in pretty much ideal conditions… How exactly is this a surprise?

Yes, Nicholls horses had been (so called)

"need"ing their first run

a few weeks ago when the season was yet to hit full stride; but at

that point

in time he had a much

worse

strike rate compared to his

average

strike rate. Where as

now

(on Saturday) Nicholls has a much

better

strike rate compared to his

average

strike rate. ie Is now in excellent form.

Trainers in general do not want to believe in "trainers in form", don’t like thinking there is nothing they can do to make their horses run better. Horses "needing a run" is often used when the yard is generally in poor form (or worse form than usual). But because of this, it’s only human nature that a few weeks down the line (when in much better form generally) the trainer is still pessimistic about a horse running in an open, competitive handicap. Never wanting to believe the simple reason for defeat is "not good enough", who can blame them for looking for an excuse? If ground and distance are fine then in an ultra-competitive race its only natural to put in the obvious reappearance excuse of "needing it"…

So the things trainers say about their horses can often be put down to human nature. What punters should be looking for is evidence.

IMO,
When a trainer’s horses are

generally in poor form

(or worse form than you’d expect) then at that particular moment in time (pretty much no matter what other evidence is available)…

I’d expect his/her horses to "need" their reappearance

. There can only be More Of That. However…

If the individual horse’s record after an absence is pretty

good

and the trainer’s overall record with horses on their reappearance is generally

good

– then… When a trainer’s horses are running

particularly well

–

I would not usually expect his/her horses to "need" their first run even if he/she says it might

. Exception being if it’s in a "trial", a more important target next time.

Value Is Everything

[Peruvian Chief]

Isn’t a Trainers top role responsibility getting horses fit to run as fast as possible between A and B?

When did it suddenly become acceptable for these individuals to openly state this horse and that horse didn’t run to their best form because they were not fit? Is it not an acceptance they are not doing their jobs?

I think the increasing obsession with the Cheltenham festival has made these crazy statements somehow become the norm, "today wasn’t his cup final", and other such cliched nonsense.

I’m pleased I’m a mere pleb. If I owned a racehorse and was told this I would ask the quite reasonable question "what in the name of god am I paying you a fortune to do then??? "

[Gingertipster]

Isn’t a Trainers top role responsibility getting horses fit to run as fast as possible between A and B?

When did it suddenly become acceptable for these individuals to openly state this horse and that horse didn’t run to their best form because they were not fit? Is it not an acceptance they are not doing their jobs?

I think the increasing obsession with the Cheltenham festival has made these crazy statements somehow become the norm, "today wasn’t his cup final", and other such cliched nonsense.

I’m pleased I’m a mere pleb. If I owned a racehorse and was told this I would ask the quite reasonable question "what in the name of god am I paying you a fortune to do then??? "

Horses don’t go racing pace at home, it is impossible for a trainer to be 100% sure whether a horse "needs it". Nicholls thought Silsol needed it but wasn’t sure, hence proviso’s in the statement and then put up an improved performance. Not to run the horse yesterday because of any notion of "needing it" would’ve prevented us seeing it win and also prevented half the horses from taking part. I don’t quite understand what you’re asking for.

In your scenario PC:

Are you asking for "needing it" to be banned as an excuse? If so, we’ll just have horses needing it without punters being told.

Does every horse need to be able to put up their best performance on debut? Never improving from the very first day it hits the track.

How does a trainer know when a horse gets to its optimum fitness? Surely a horse generally goes through its life with gradual progression? Horses can not be expected to be as good in a Classic Trial as they are in the Classic.

You seem to be reading too much in to statements like this.
Horses should be fit enough to do themselves justice and be trying to win. "Needing it" only means (for whatever reason) in the trainer’s opinion the horse is likely to improve on whatever it does that day.

Value Is Everything

[Peruvian Chief]

I don’t buy that trainers don’t know when their horses are fit. That’s balls mate, they don’t lose a Gold Cup and say "hey ho, but that will put him spot on!"

If they need "racing pace" to get fit then bloody run them at "racing pace" before running Under Rules.

Many horses run to their form after long lay-offs and we are told its a "fantastic training feat" or some other hyperbole. Therefore, it’s clearly very possible for a horse running Under Rules to be "fit", and as far as I’m concerned should be the bare minimum required and very much the norm.

I’ve a lot of respect for you GT, but I feel you are overcomplicating this. It’s clear bullshit as far as I’m concerned and it’s disturbing it is construed as standard. Just weigh the horses and publish prior to racing.

I don’t wish to pick on Nicholls but he is sometimes quoted pre- race as stating he has got this one as fit as possible, as if it’s somewhat of a novelty. I just don’t get it in any way shape or form.

[Gingertipster]

I don’t buy that trainers don’t know when their horses are fit. That’s balls mate,

they don’t lose a Gold Cup and say "hey ho, but that will put him spot on!"

If they need

"racing pace"

to get fit then bloody run them at "racing pace" before running Under Rules.

Many

horses run to their form

after long lay-offs

and we are told its a "fantastic training feat" or some other hyperbole. Therefore, it’s clearly very possible for a horse running Under Rules to be

"fit"

, and as far as I’m concerned should be the bare minimum required and very much the norm.

I’ve a lot of respect for you GT, but I feel you are overcomplicating this. It’s clear bullshit as far as I’m concerned and it’s disturbing it is construed as standard. Just weigh the horses and

publish prior to racing

.

I don’t wish to pick on Nicholls but he is sometimes quoted pre- race as stating he has got this one as fit as possible, as if it’s somewhat of a novelty. I just don’t get it in any way shape or form.

Don’t think we are that far apart on what we’d like PC.

"Needing it" has imo been misinterpreted. Horses are "fit", they just might (and only might) in the trainer’s opinion come on a little for the run. Silsol won, he was "fit", just (in Nicholls’ opinion before the race) might improve three or four pounds next time. "Fit" should indeed be the "bare minimum" and I believe it is; those "needing it"

no

exception to that rule. Only when trainers bring horses knowingly not capable of doing themselves justice (which is I think what you’re (in real terms) rightly against)- do I also see a problem. You’re just imo reading too much in to the term "needing it".

It’s posible to get

some

horses 100% fit "after long lay-offs", but not all. Indeed some are best fresh and only run well after an absence. However, some either are or thought by connections to be – at their very best after a run. Temperament is all important and for some (eg lazy at home) it is more difficult to

get

them 100% fit and more difficult to

know

for certain the horse is 100% fit. Some horses naturally hold a bit back until a jockey really gets to work; ie in a race.

If a trainer were to run them at home at "racing pace", then they’d need time to recover from those exertions before running on the racecourse. Which only defeats the object, we’d see our Stars even less.

In a country where horses are trained all over the place, weighing horses is only possible on arival at the course. How are they to "publish prior to racing" in such little time?

With respect PC, you say

they don’t lose a Gold Cup and say "hey ho, but that will put him spot on!"

But isn’t that in essence exactly what Nicholls has said about Silviniaco Conti? Last season he ran Silvi in the Betfair without a prep run, thinking he was 100% fit… and wasn’t;

coming on

a bit for the Haydock run when winning at Kempton. This season he ran Silvi in the Charlie Hall in

preparation

for the Betfair. Last week also making the judgement he himself made the mistake of going directly from King George to Gold Cup. Looked all over the winner going to the last at Cheltenham only to falter up the hill. This time around there

will

be a prep run to get Silvi 100% fit for the Festival.

Value Is Everything

[Peruvian Chief]

GT what did you make of Rocky Creeks owners quotations post Down Royal before I retort to your detailed response.

[Gingertipster]

GT what did you make of Rocky Creeks owners quotations post Down Royal before I retort to your detailed response.

tbh Haven’t read it.

Value Is Everything

[Author]

Posts