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I disagree Ginger. Of course I was unlucky on this race. Are you saying that if you were offered the scenario where your only bet (not trying to cover half the field like you do) would trade at odds on in the final furlong, having backed it beforehand at 7-1, you wouldn’t take it?
You don’t half talk some tosh at times mate.
Of course I would like 7/1 about something trading at odds-on in the final furlong, Judge. But at the time of betting that 7/1 I would not know if she’s going to trade odds-on. So your scenario does not exist. You’re not taking 7/1 at the furlong pole, you’re taking it before the race, so every single scenario – including those before the furlong pole – needs to be taken in to account in deciding if 7/1 is value.
ie Temperament could have meant she’d have been pushed along early and/or lost her place and/or didn’t want to know until too late. And/or (what imo happened) got to the front and too polite, saying “after you”. All of those scenarios were possible and (for me) needed to be taken in to account in the price I was willing to take beforehand. So if I thought beforehand temperament meant the filly was not worth 7/1, it took a long time for my belief to be born out, but imo it was in the end.
I can only say how I see it Judge, if you believe temperament had no bearing on the result then fair enough.
Value Is EverythingAll that essentially matters is that you were right and I was wrong, and that’s because of the result, which proves my earlier point that luck plays a part. I was having a good run a month ago and those close calls were going my way. Now my luck has turned. You can blab on about temperament all you like but that’s all that matters.
Btw the winner traded at 80-1 in running and three of the losers (including Aljeezera) traded at odds on. Aljeezera lowest price was 1.56.
All that essentially matters is that you were right and I was wrong, and that’s because of the result, which proves my earlier point that luck plays a part. I was having a good run a month ago and those close calls were going my way. Now my luck has turned. You can blab on about temperament all you like but that’s all that matters.
Btw the winner traded at 80-1 in running and three of the losers (including Aljeezera) traded at odds on. Aljeezera lowest price was 1.56.
Depends what you mean by “luck”, Judge.
Luck: Success or failure apparently brought by chance rather than through one’s own actions.
Was it your decision to back a horse that has a fair bit of temperament?
Winners and losers don’t come at regular intervals, only natural that punters go through winning and losing runs.
No such thing as “luck has turned”. Could be either just a natural occurance or making wrong or correct decisions.Yes, on the odd occations luck does play a part in a race, but far less often than a lot of punters believe. The horse who finishes fast but all too late or the one who sets too strong a pace can often be predicted beforehand by studying form. Also what some punters call “luck” I’d regard as the natural state of “probabilities”. eg I may work out a race has five front/prominent runners and that the race will probably be truly run. It’s not “luck” when one horse is left in front and the others don’t take it on. Either I was wrong in my assessment, or more likely because a true pace was never definite, ie just a “probability”… And when it is only a probability there’s always a “possibility” of a slowly run race. Not “luck”, just something natural that happens because of probabilities.
Value Is EverythingI backed Aljezeera and I think she does have a temperament and IMO she probably threw this race away. Having said that like Steve I backed her each way last time and she came from the clouds to finish third!!
IMO she has her own ideas about the game and after hitting the front I think she may have chucked it!!
It will be interesting to see if she stays in training as Luca may find the key to her and she could become a top class stayer.I backed Aljezeera and I think she does have a temperament and IMO she probably threw this race away. Having said that like Steve I backed her each way last time and she came from the clouds to finish third!!
IMO she has her own ideas about the game and after hitting the front I think she may have chucked it!!
It will be interesting to see if she stays in training as Luca may find the key to her and she could become a top class stayer.Yes, Raymo. Whatever we might think of Aljezeera’s temperament she showed a lot of improvement yesterday and certainly has more scope for further improvement. May be she’ll be ridden to hit the front only late on in future.
Value Is Everything
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