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Aljeezera
I notice a lot of people on here seem to fancy Count Octave for the st leger, perhaps partly based on the Frankel angle and the way his progeny seem to just stay on
Well if you fancy that horse surely this one must have a chance tomorrow. Not the quickest horse in the world but this will take some getting. Only concern for me is that she was withdrawn before on account of the ground being too soft, if the trainer does give the go ahead I reckon she’ll take all the beating.
For my first bet of the meeting I’ve taken my “Flat racing for idiots” approach and looked at the ground, gone to the RP site and clicked on “Nathaniel progeny entries” and backed Melodic Motion for this and Nathalie in the last, with a double the pair.
Good luck with Al Jazeera though, I love seeing the Frankels win.Natural Scenery for me at 9/2
Backed him in the Ebor and he was ridiculously unlucky in running. Spent most of the last half mile looking for some room and yet still managed to fly home for a close third.
I honestly believe he’s a top class stayer and think he wins this.
As a side note, I would be annoyed is Sweet Selection won after backing him at Ascot in the gold cup and Goodwood in their equivalent at big prices both times each Way. On both occasion he ran on as I expected but never made the placings. He could go well down in class.
But I’ll stick with the Godolphin horse.
Natural Scenery @ 9/2
I’ve backed Melodic Motion 4.8/1 and Detailed 12/1, with a saver Natural Scenery 4.8/1.
Value Is EverythingI did Aljezeera each-way last time and the bet looked goosed as it looked likely she would be pulled up at one stage.
The theory of her staying on over further is sound enough but I am concerned she will get out of her ground again and this field looks a good bit tougher. That last race looked at the mercy of Mori but the odds on Stoute horse was awful and the form of it since looks ropey.
My instinct would be to place lay Aljezeera, I have a negative feeling about her.
Melodic Motion looks the solid potential improver. Already very progressive she was the pick for me at 9/2. Dubka seems disappointing this season and I could see Beckett’s filly Fav at 7/2, with not too many negatives at all.
Melodic Motion 9/2.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Natural Scenery is a filly that has served me well so far this season without actually winning and it would be folly of me to abandon her now.
It was a personal gutter of the season when she finished 3rd in the Ebor and it’ll be a long long time before I get over it.
She’s my win bet at 4/1 with a saver on Melodic Motion at 5/1.
sickening. so typical of my luck of late. looked the winner in the final furlong.
aljeezera just a touch keen if anything and that cost her in final strides.
sickening. so typical of my luck of late. looked the winner in the final furlong.
aljeezera just a touch keen if anything and that cost her in final strides.
I think she gave it away, Judge; temperament.
Value Is EverythingI’ve backed Melodic Motion 4.8/1 and Detailed 12/1, with a saver Natural Scenery 4.8/1.
My two did best of those held up in a slowly run race. Considered taking a big price about the winner because she was the most likely pace angle, just thought the going was against her.
Value Is EverythingI only backed one Ginger, Aljeezera. Was a good bet I backed her a few days ago at 7-1 NRNB. but it lost. A good bet and it lost. It ran well and probably traded at odds on in the final furlong but it still got beat. It shows how in this game you need luck above everything else.
This is one of the problems with betting.. no matter how much you study the form, you just can’t do anything when a horse runs so poorly like Natural Scenery has.
Unlucky to those of you on melodic motion btw who looked the winner from a long way out.
I only backed one Ginger, Aljeezera. Was a good bet I backed her a few days ago at 7-1 NRNB. but it lost. A good bet and it lost. It ran well and probably traded at odds on in the final furlong but it still got beat. It shows how in this game you need luck above everything else.
Aljezeera showed previously that stamina is her strong suit and would be suited by the step up in trip, but on those runs she arguably also showed temperament and that was the reason I did not back her today. imo She’s difficult to win with and that’s what told in the end. So I don’t see that as “luck”.
Equally, although am disappointed I didn’t get the winner and believe had the pace been faster either Melodic Motion or Detailed would’ve won. But it was evident beforehand pace was a very possible issue and yet chose not to back the probable pace setter. So only have myself to blame – not “luck” at all.
If form analysis over time is good enough then a punter will show an overall profit; not “luck”.
Value Is EverythingThis is one of the problems with betting.. no matter how much you study the form, you just can’t do anything when a horse runs so poorly like Natural Scenery has.
Unlucky to those of you on melodic motion btw who looked the winner from a long way out.
Natural Scenery was possibly the most inconvenienced by a slow pace, MOM. Just doesn’t have a change of gear and best in a truly run race. Reason why he was only a saver for me. Not that it did me any good.
Value Is EverythingI disagree Ginger. Of course I was unlucky on this race. Are you saying that if you were offered the scenario where your only bet (not trying to cover half the field like you do) would trade at odds on in the final furlong, having backed it beforehand at 7-1, you wouldn’t take it?
You don’t half talk some tosh at times mate.
Aljezeera was able to sit with the pace today. Last time she was under pressure to go with them and she clearly was much more competitive today. Had she run with the same fluency early in her last race I feel she would have dotted up.
I thought Melodic Motion was given a bit to do from the back today and she couldn’t quite catch them despite probably finishing best of the lot.
I think Aljezeera kept on gamely enough today and on another day might have won, equally Melodic Motion could have won it on another day.
Joey O’Brien’s filly ran well and has been a good improver this season. A similar story to Melodic Rendezvous.
Dubka and Natural Scenery were disappointing. Dubka has not convinced me this season and after good progress last year, her progress has stalled since getting beaten in a listed race at Bath last year when 6/4 Fav.
Melodic Rendezvous and Wild Irish Rose both came well ahead of the older Dubka and Natural Scenery today, relative to their last meeting in the Lillie Langtry, perhaps indicating greater progression on the part of the 3YO fillies.
I didn’t envisage Alyssa winning this and it looked a very poor renewal of a group 2 race with horses rated barely 100 fighting it out.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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