December 18, 2003 at 16:24 #3760dandanMember
- Total Posts 199
I`ve just been on the Paddy Power website and was reading through their list of novelty bets. Ever the opportunist, I was wondering if anybody has any thoughts on any of these bets… to me it seems that, with the slightest bit of inside information, an opportunity could well present itself for a serious cleanout of good Mr. Powers coffers… Any ideas anybody? Here`s some of mine…
RTE sports personality of the year: Surely this award must go to either Keith Wood or Peter Canavan? Wood is 7/4 favourite, and justifiably I reckon. He`s a well-loved, recently retired Irish sporting hero who achieved much this year in returning from injury to lead the Irish boys down in Oz… Canavan got his hands on the Sam Maguire trophy for the first time this year, another huge achievement, and for me looks like the nearest challenger to Woody at 5/1. Damien Duff`s best days have yet to come, in my opinion. He`s 2/1 2nd favourite in the market but ranks as a lay to me… sure, he`s signed for Chelsea, done well and scored some great goals, but it hasn`t been a good year for Irish soccer, what with the lads flopping in switzerland, and I feel the focus will more or less be on rugby and maybe G.A.A. An opportunity to lump on both Canavan and Wood with the appropriate staking plan, methinks? Any thoughts?
Pop Idol II- 8/11 Michelle, Evs mark… any thoughts guys? Is this the year of the talented but not so ready-made-popstar looking chick?
2012 Olympics- any ideas on this one? 100/1 on them being held in Havana would be sweet, eh???
Awaiting your thoughts!!!!!!!December 18, 2003 at 18:04 #88806tootingMember
- Total Posts 379
I’ll add tuppence on Pop Idol:
Sam leaving was the icing on the cake for a brilliant Pop Idol for me, and I’ll be watching with a glass of bubbly, without a gambling care in the world. The only down-side is feeling somewhat obliged to keep on watching what has been a desperately awful programme!
The betfair market has been getting it wrong throughout. I think this is because it’s been working on a number of assumptions based on previous programmes, but these assumptions have not been valid for this year’s batch.
The reason for this is that the contestants have all been complete rubbish. None would have made the top 5 last time, it’s hard to think of any that would have made any of the bands, and none would have lasted a fortnight in fame academy.
The betfair punters spend a lot of time working out who has the most deep-seated support throughout the country. They think about who is voting, general prejudice, and they monitor all the voting sites for clues.
And this time I think that’s where they’ve been going wrong – the reality is that there has been very little meaningful support for anybody, as their woeful failure to become the Xmas number 1 will testify.
For me each round has been decided on:<br>1. How well they sing on the night<br>2. Whether they sing first (this was a massive disadvantage throughout)<br>3. Whether they are considered ‘safe’ or not.
With numbers 2 and 3 rendered irrelevant for the final, we’re left with – whoever sings best on the night wins.
That’s it – any talk of Scotland swinging behind Michelle; of the Brummie vote; the fatty factor; the Sam girlies switching to Mark, will have no bearing at all.
Overall, I’d say Michelle has been marginally the better singer so I guess 4/5 Michelle, 5/4 Mark would be about right going into the final.
If you had to bet I’d wait until they’ve sung the first song and simply ask yourself which one was best, (ignoring any judge’s comments). I wouldn’t be at all surprised if you got decent odds on whichever one you pick.
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