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About time we had a thread for this.
It looks like the ground will be pretty soft come Saturday. Which of the leading contenders have the stamina/soft ground ability to get up the hill in those conditions? I did like Chapoturgeon for the race, but not so sure now.
I assume Poquelin is an almost certain non-runner and that Ruby will ride Tatenen.
Runner by runner preview to Saturday’s race.
It’s not a bad horse by horse preview (with a couple of points I can’t agree with), but rather spoilt by spelling mistakes. "Biding" appears twice, for instance, while "Hussle and Bussle" is a shocker! Not as bad as suggesting Leslingtaylor might improve for a step up to 2m4+ though
Northern Alliance sounds like he’s sure to stay.
God knows what I’ll put as my Paddy Power horse in my Ten-to-follow lines…
Northern Alliance sounds like he’s sure to stay.
God knows what I’ll put as my Paddy Power horse in my Ten-to-follow lines…
All of them, except Poquelin, of course!
Unfortunately my budget will only run to a single figure number of lines, so I tend to pick two against the field in the PP and two in the Hennessy and hope for the best.
I was going for the fantastically unoriginal Chapoturgeon and Tranquil Sea, but the rain is putting me off them (especially the latter)….
As far as the Hennessy goes, I have no idea. Perhaps I’ll take a chance on Denman.
Tranquil Sea has plenty of heavy ground form and should win bits and pieces in Ireland, whereas Chapoturgeon isn’t fit to tie my shoelaces and should be cast out forthwith. My TTTF advice is that it’s only worth having the PP winner this year if the SP bonus points make it worthwhile. None of these are fantastically unexposed and none look likely to progress to championship class. I’d either leave it alone or include something left field like
Our Vic
or
Il Duce
.
Tranquil Sea is best fresh – often wins first time out and remember last year he was pretty short for the Arkle after an impressive return, added to his relatively poor run the last time he ran at Cheltenham and I’d much rather be a layer than a backer myself.
Chapoturgeon
clocked a time nearly 2 secs faster than Imperial Commander over the same C&D on the same day at the festival.
This, plus the visual impression of his win, suggests to me that this is a Grade 1 winner in waiting.
Even after his 18lb rise and revised mark of 153, I still think he has room for manouevre and could have 10lbs+ in hand.
Potentially extreme conditions make things a bit more doubtful, but all in all I expect him to take this before challenging for Grade 1 honours henceforth.
7/1 looks good value. I have also backed him at 14/1 for the Ryanair.
Its impossible to nail one down for this, even 2 days away from the race. The ground looks like its going to be softer than ideal for many of the leading fancies such as Poquelin, Chapoturgeon, Tarotino. So its no surprise to see Ballyfitz has been supported of late. Il Duce and Watch My Back were a couple I was keen on…but not on soft ground. Might turn into a watching race really.
Bit concerned about the weather; not just in terms of it raining but there seem to be a few severe weather forecasts being mentioned; high winds etc..backed Ballyfitz yesterday in the hope that he recaptures his Cheltenham form; likewise with Il Duce.
I followed Ballyfitz very closely last season and put him up as a likely RSA winner after his defeat of Big Fella Thanks. I just cannot see him being a factor here never mind the winner. He just isn’t quick enough and I can’t imagine a horse of his type winning any of the previous renewals of this chase.
The two I like for EW purposes are Hold Em and According To Pete. Hold Em seems back to form based on his last two runs and if his jumping holds together could take a place at 33’s. According To Pete has had a couple of runs on the flat so at least should be fit enough to make this a good test particularly if it comes up soft. 16/1 a decent EW price.
Tranquil Sea is my main one here, got a bet on him the other day at 8-1 with ladbrokes, he’s still available at 8-1 but ladbrokes have him at 5-1 now.
I have always liked this horse, I remember he was a huge positive in the market on the day of the supreme novice won by captain cee bee. That day I thought he would want further and have always watched for races that he has suitable conditions in. I really fancied him for the jewson this year but he was too far back in that race and never really given a chance in a race which was dominated by horses who had generally been pretty decent over shiorter. Tomorrows race could indeed pan out that way but hoping it doesnt. Think he is likely to go well here, and fingers crossed the race is a bit more testing than the jewson and he gets a better ride.
Other than that, I do think Accpording To Pete looks to have things in his favour, and have always had soft spot for henry Dalys Pop, but I think both may just be out of their depths here.
However, the horse who I think is the best Value here is actually Tartak @18-1. I think this may be a classy horse who is on the up, and was outpaced in the run home in the Arkle, but he appreciated the step up in trip on what I think was more testing ground at aintree, and although he is high enough at the weights, he may be the classiest here. Like a few of Tom George’s though, I think he is a horse to catch on his day. At 18-1 I think he’s a nice one for an each way.
Tranquil Sea 8-1 and Tartak 18-1 against the field for me.
Have done:
Chapoturgeon
WIN @ 8/1
Knowhere
E/W @ 33/1
Tatenen is the one I fear most
My Prices to 100% for very soft.
Our Vic 0.4% 250/1
Tartak 4.75% 20/1
Knowhere 0.75% 132/1
Chapoturgeon 9.5% 10/1
Poquelin 5.25% 18/1
Tatenen 9% 10/1
Tranquil Sea 10.5% 17/2
Northern Alliance 4.75% 20/1Ballyfitz
15% 11/2 (available at around 13/2)
Tarotino 7.25% 13/1
Il Duce 0.3% 300/1My Petra
7% 14/1 (available at 22/1 betfair)
Bible Lord
8.5% 11/1 (available at 28/1 betfair)
According To Pete 7.5% 13/1
I’m So Lucky 1% 100/1
Pop 0.5% 200/1
Three Mirrors 0.3% 300/1
Leslingtaylor 0.25% 400/1
From Dawn To Dusk 3.25% 28/1Hold Em
4.25% 22/1 (available at 33/1)
With more rain on the way, the only one of the favs I can see that will be suited by a severe test at this trip is Ballyfitz.
Have backed Ballyfitz, Hold Em and Bible Lord, will wait to see just how soft it is for My Petra. As don’t think she’ll get home on heavy.
Value Is Everything
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