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Race time is now 3.00
[/color:19q7149w]I was going to put the trends up for this tomorrow, and then steadily work through the horses in my fashion, but
I GOTTA HORSE, I GOTTA HORSE
There are two very big trends for this 26 (gulp) runner h’cap.
Everyone of the 9 winners in the past 10 years has been aged 6, 7 or 8.
Everyone of the 9 winners in the past 10 years had had at least 2 runs that season, generally winning or being placed, although last year was an exception.
If you applied both these trends, I suppose half the field would be left, and when I start looking at the form, I’ll do these first, rather than starting with the ones at the top of the h’cap.
What I like to do with young chasers is to compare their Chase ratings with their Hurdle ratings, and there is one horse that stands out in this regard: Parsons Pistol. His Chase rating is 122, while his Hurdle rating is 135. He is generally 16/1 with both the bookies and Betfair, and is roughly second-favourite, so he ain’t one of my oddball selections this time.
Although he has had a few Beginner or Novice Chase runs, he has only run in one H’cap Chase, but that applied to the 2005 and 2004 winners also. Last time out he was 3rd of 18 in a 3m5f Fairyhouse H’cap Chase in Soft going, so he should stay out the trip well.
Trained by Noel Meade, there is a fair chance that Carberry will get the leg up.
Normal service will be resumed tomorrow.
I spent a good proportion of yesterday visiting a number of gambling emporia in the Naas area taking all the 20-1 about Hold The Pin for this. I don’t care what age he is or what his hurdles rating is but this horse jumps and stays and will have a feather weight if he runs (I don’t know if he does) especially as his astute handler also has Patsy Hall at the top of the weights. He drifted badly at Navan in the Troytown and looked to blow up to me when finishing fifth. The fact that this race is worth €190k as opposed to half that there might have been a factor.
I might be totally wrong but this has the look of a Martin plot to me and he has a good record in the race (won it last year). Most years this is full of dross but this horse has a little bit of class and is better left-handed (jumps a bit left).Adding in those trends you mention Gerald it ends up leaving you with 18 of the 44 current declarations. Not too bad, if you ask me
Of those 18 (Aged 5-8 and with at least 2 wins under their belt) I really like the look of Operation Houdini (12-1), Chelsea Harbour (20-1) and Hoopy (14-1).
Operation Houdini does go up 11lbs from his last running at Navan where he was just fended off by Notre Pere. This horse has been consistent all year and has a very good record of 3 wins from 5 (the 2 failures being 2nd places). All of these being in reasonably good handicapped races.
Chelsea Harbour just looks great this year. I’m still of the belief that a big run was going to come from Chelsea Harbour in the same race OH was behind Notre Pere in before CH fell. Chelsea Harbours last win showed sheer determination and a desire to win and I think CH is well in in the weights here. Granted, shouldering 11-7 isnt great but I feel CH has a few pounds up his sleeve.
The last one, Hoopy, looks very well handicapped. According to the weights Hoopy is a 124 horse (shouldering 10-7). RPR’s show this horse as a 160 horse and whilst I dont agree completely with that rating I definitely see Hoopy better than a 124.
Thats my 3. If any of them drop out before Saturday that’ll make my picking much easier for the race
I think the age statistic is understandable. This is a large field with a valuable prize. The older horses with exposed form are vulnerable to the up-and-comers, and there are just too many of them to repel. The thing about Hold The Pin is that he is at the bottom rather than the top of the handicap, having run in lots of hurdles and just a handful of chases. [edit: He’s run in the same number of chases as hurdles, but quite a lot of hurdles in the recent past, if you see what I mean.] However, I am sure that Plan A was to win the Troytown. Will Martin be embarrassed to win the Paddy Power, after being hauled in front of the Stewards last year? [edit: Does he have his excuse already prepared?] Number 33, needs seven to come out.
[edit: one thing I’ve forgotten to mention on this thread is that people can abuse me as much as they like, because I know absolutely nothing about Irish racing; I’m just analysing the race for a bit of fun and practice.]
Would AJM rather win the Troytown or this? Look at the prizemoney. Would he be embarrassed? ROFLMAO
Actually 3rd in ballot order and will definitely get a run (safety limit is 30). You can disregard his early chase runs so he actually is quite unexposed.I like puzzles. I’ll try to solve ROFLMAO by Christmas.
(No help please.)
Okay, I cheated and googled it.
From the Formbook it seems that Hold The Pin was trying in the Troytown, so I was wondering whether he might not be much better than that.
With this horse, Martin seems innocent.
I’m just wondering whether Stewards in either country will ever report a horse and connections after it has won, (rather than when they have spotted it not trying.)
If you’re trying to figure out Tony Martin using the form book a padded cell awaits. As to your point about the stewards, connections are regularly hauled in after a horse shows improved form- see the first winner at Downpatrick’s last meeting.
My room is about 8 feet by 10.
2007 -5P Newbay Prop 8 9-10oh1b1 14/1 AJ Martin Good to Yielding
2006 -21 Cane Brake 7 11-3p 14/1 TJ Taaffe Heavy
2005 -413 Black Apalachi 6 10-5ow1 25/1 JL Cullen Yielding to Soft
2004 -5415 Keepatem 8 10-8 7/2fav MF Morris Soft JP McManus
2003 -12 World Wide Web 7 10-1 8/1fav Jonjo O’Neill Soft JP McManus
2002 Abandoned
2001 -12 I Can Imagine 6 9-2t (9oh) 12/1 Robert Tyner Yielding
2000 -P43 Call Me Dara 7 9-4 (10oh) 33/1 Robert Tyner Soft to Heavy
1999 -7233 Inis Cara 7 10-8 11/1 Michael Hourigan Soft
1998 -11 Calling Wild 8 11-3 8/1 PF Nicholls SoftI’m sorry, but I can’t help it; whenever I come across the Irish descriptions of soft ground, it always reminds me of the Eskimos and their numerous words for snow.
NEWBAY PROP
Had won over 3m5f on Soft ground in previous season. Fell in PP previous year when rated 6lbs higher. 3rd in Midlands Grand National. Seems a bit harsh for the Stewards to have dragged AJM in.CANE BRAKE
13lbs higher than when winning the Troytown at Navan, but the RPR was 12lbs higher than that. PU in PP previous year.BLACK APALACHI
3rd Chase start & 2nd Handicap start. Rating was 117 over chases and 132 hurdles.KEEPATEM
2nd Handicap Chase start. 115 Chase rating and 128 Hurdle rating.WORLD WIDE WEB
Was running off same mark as had been 2nd at Chepstow. OR 111 Chases. Hurdle rating was between 116 and 128, I reckon in the 120s.I CAN IMAGINE
2nd in Cork Grand National. Hadn’t run in Hurdles.CALL ME DARA
4th in Cork Grand National. Hadn’t run in Hurdles.INIS CARA
2nd in Munster National, at Cork, and 3rd in Clonmel Oil.CALLING WILD
Well handicapped on his distant 5th in the Cathcart.Just did the whole race today and have to agree with you that Parson’s Pistol
has a right chance. I’m currently trying to find out via my Meade mole if he’s an intended runner- will edit this post if I hear.Tomorrow is work day at Meade’s so it may be after that that plans are made. Very difficult to fancy much else: Rober Tyner has previous here so his 2 runners deserve respect but both ran awful the last day- would prefer The Halfway Bar of the 2 as Callher has looked a short runner to me. Meade’s other one Bridge Run has a chance. Very hard to carry weight in this historically- I’ll be concentrating on those below 10-8.Excuse me, I have been AWOL for the past couple of days because my sister and cousin (phew! is she hot) caught me up on Facebook and I’ve been covering my tracks.
My earliest memories of horse racing are the bookies ready reckoners being doled out at Christmas time, and the classified racing results. My Swanee was mentioned was mentioned virtually every week, so he became my favourite (race)horse perhaps before I ever saw him run. This was when I was 5, because it was before we moved house.
I think I remember Red Alligator winning the Grand National, and I definitely remember Highland Wedding winning the GN. (Was it on this occasion that Eddie Harty jpked that he thought they had another circuit to go, or was that after the Scottish GN?) My Mum was definitely on Highland QWedding, and I think a few other people were as well.
I remember coming coming home from school to find out Blakeney had won the Derby.
This is where I’m not sure my memory is correct. I’m think that during that Derby Week I had a cross bet up on Raffingora and another horse.
The following year, my mum let me take the day off school so that I could watch Nijinsky II win the Derby.
Now, apparently, Raffingora equalled the electronically timed 5f World record on that same afternoon, but I have no recollection of that.
The following year, I, my mum and dad, my brother and two sisters, and Great Unclue Alfred went to Epsom to see Mill Reef win the Derby.
Now, this is something that STILL rankles with me. I had half a crown each way on Irish Ball at 33/1. I never went to collect my winnings,because I thought he came fourth instead of third. I didn’t find out until I looked in the paper the next morning. We were near Tattenham Corner, but on the outside of the track (Tattenham Enclosure, one down from the Silver Ring??????????) . My dad put me on his shoulders, but that wasn’t enough.
I don’t know why, but two years laters I went to school on Derby Day. My ******* teacher bugged me all day asking me who was going to win the Derby. I didn’t reply because I didn’t know. When I arrived home, I found out it was Morston. (Who the . . ?)
The following year, my first year at Grammar School, I also felt obligated to miss the Derby. I had played truant for a few weeks the previous term, and I had turned over a new leaf. What may have also played a role in it was that we had an Environmental Studies field day in my home town of Deal. Maybe I thought I would get home early to watch the Derby. Can’t remember anything about the Maritime Musuem. Do remember that Snow Khight won at 50/1, even though I’ve never seen the race.
Looking back at the 70s, I saw all the other Derbys, so I was lucky with exams.
I had a year out when Shergar won!
I had less luck at University ( regarding the Derby clashing with exams). Never saw Secreto or Golden Fleece. I took 4 years to do my 3 year degree, so I also missed Slip Anchor. But I don’t feel I missed that Derby because of the race description. Let me tell you this for nothing:- Political Philosophy is a load of bollocks, Human Rights do not exist, it was like writing an essay about the New Clothes the Emperor was wearing.
For the past 32 years I have been pissed off with my Mum, because she, my brother, and my two sisters emigrated to Canada without telling me about it beforehand. But I’ve thinking in the past couple of days that if she let me watch Nijinsky win the Derby. then maybe she wasn’t a bad mum after all.
Enough of that nonsense, and back to the matter in hand.
We ain’t going to have any of that hippy rubbish.
We are going to start at the top, and work our way down to the bottom of the handicap. Each horse will be given equal consideration, no matter who the trainer is, or who has said what to whom. We shall commence in the early hours of the morn.
I’m slightly unhappy, as I’m having to retype this as the RP website froze on me (5th time today) and I crashed the computer to get out of it. I was just about to post, but wanted to check one fact first.
I’m doing this in 3 batches of 10. I’ll do the extra ones as an addendum once the final decs are out.
The Betfair prices were as at Christmas Day lunchtime.
-54 VIC VENTURI 8 11-8 DT Hughes BF44
4th in Troytown. 6 lbs higher than when 1 length second to Emma Jane at the Punchestown Festival. Seems weighted to the hilt on 139, as has 5 times achieved a RPR of 138. Prefers better ground??-261U1 CHELSEA HARBOUR 8 11-7 Thomas Mullins BF22
Has a 5lbs penalty for winning at Navan, but still seems to be well handicapped. Jumps to the left, and was the horse that caused the mayhem in the Troytown. Is also entered in the Lexus & a h’cap hurdle.-P MATTOCK RANGER 8 11-6 Noel Meade BF95
PU in the Porterstown, and previously in the Irish GN. Is 11 lbs higher than when won the Cork Grand National 13 months ago. Meade has 5 other entries, and Mattock Ranger is probably being aimed at an even bigger prize later in the season.-1 DANTE HALL 7 11-4 T Stack BF15.5
Has been raised 10lbs for win over 2 miles, and was 6th in the Midlands GN. Trainer’s representative says the horse is a stronger horse this season. JP owned – watch the gamble unfurl.-40 PATSY HALL 8 11-4 AJ Martin BF13.5
Last run was in a hurdles race. With straitjacket at the ready, his best bit of form was when 8.5 length 4th in the William Hill Trophy off a 5lbs higher mark. Prima facie, this seems to have a better chance than Hold The Pin.-7 PREISTS LEAP 8 11-4 Thomas Gerard O’Leary BF55
i before e, except after c. Seasonal debut was over 2 miles. Distant 7th in Irish GN. 10lbs higher than when winning the Thyestes in Heavy going.-74743F7 A NEW STORY 10 11-3 Michael Hourigan BF55
Should be fit enough! 4 lbs higher than when 1.75 length 3rd in Cork GN. In the grip of the H’capper, having come 3rd & 4th in Irish GN.-24 OSAKO D’AIRY 6 11-2 PF Nicholls BF27 (Well, was before I took it.)
Running off same mark as when 20 length 4th at Haydock to Possol, Mon Mome, and Darkness in first attempt at 3 miles. I’m interested, particularly as he made 2 mistakes and also got hampered. Campaigned exclusively over hurdles last season (by Gollings), as had won a French 4yo chase.-101 OSCAR INDIA 9 11-2 Henry De Bromhead BF38
Yet to win a "proper" chase over 3m, though stays further. Gone up 7 lbs for victory over "inadequate" trip of 2m3f at Naas. I’d be interested in this at a big price, and have put a £2 saver on it, despite it not fitting the age trend./08 CHURCH ISLAND 9 11-0 Michael Hourigan BF70
Doesn’t fit the age trend or the form trend, but at least fits the number of runs this season trend. Was the original reason I decided to analyse this race. is 3 lbs lower than when 4.75 length 4th in 2007 Irish GN. Missed the 2007/08 season. Just so as not to get caught out, I’ve put a £2 saver on him. [edit: I’m not sure what Church Island’s going preference is – he won a couple of Novice Chases in the Soft, but that doesn’t really mean anything.]Time for din-dins. I’ll try to stay off the alcohol. At least I don’t have any red wine. I normally drink a bottle of it every Christmas afternoon.
Live in a pub, have just done the washing-up for 16 people.
Betfair prices are as of 9pm, roughly.
-3311P DASHING GEORGE 6 11-0 E Mcnamara BF42
Novice. We’ve all come across this situation before: the trainer expresses doubts about his horse’s 115 in his first h’cap chase, and he bolts up by 8l and 20l in a fairly valuable 2m4f Tralee Chase, for which he is raised 16 pounds. (Ha, that will teach you for disparaging the Handicapper!)
PU last time at Cheltenham – has he recovered? We’ll find out, when he’s declared or not. This horse can’t be too bad – he beat my own Parsons Pistol by 10 lengths in a Beginners Chase. If he runs, I am going to have a saver on him, or a bit more. Apparently much better going left-handed. Loves very soft ground.-0 NOTABLE D’ESTRUVAL 7 11-0 ALT Moore BF16
Out with the washing in a h’cap hurdle. Won a 2m4f H’cap Chase at the Punchestown Festival (now 9lbs higher). "Apparently" didn’t get 3m last season, despite being 3rd in the 3m Pierse H’cap Chase at Leopardstown (now 10 lbs higher). I can’t have a saver on all of them, so I’m deciding to give this one a miss.-P OPTIMUS PRIME 7 11-0 Adrian Maguire BF55 Not Delared[/color:1scdvkmt]
Pulled up in a hurdle race. RPR didn’t think much of his win in a Tramore Chase last April, but the H’capper raised him 7 lbs. Apparently prefers goodish ground, so thankfully I can rule him out this time. Jumps well and is very willing.Had to crash computer again.
-787 WHERESBEN 9 11-0 Seamus Fahey BF60
Likes it soft, likes to gallop, and likes 3m, so I suppose that is enough reason to back him. 3 lbs higher than when won a Nov H’cap Chase at Navan in March, with a bloody long name, but 24k to the winner.
He’ll recognise a few backsides here, as he has been beaten this season by Operation Houdini, Oscar India and Chelsea Harbour.
All 8 victories have been Feb-April, but I’ll put a fiver on him now, just to give me a reason to back him the next time, and the time after that.
[edit: okay, I was a little bit squiffy when I placed that bet. I was influenced by a remembrance of Beyer. The horse has been beaten by 47, 43 and 17.5 lengths in his last three starts, and I’m taking the latest beating to be an indication that the horse is returning to form. The difference is that Beyer uses the technique in low-grade, 12 runner affairs on the dirt, in which he is trying to scratch around to find a horse to bet. I’ve just done it in a 30 runner race in which there are plenty to back anyway. ]-501203 OULART 9 10-13 DT Hughes BF46 Not declared
[/color:1scdvkmt]Mistimed his run, and came 75 lengths 3rd to Black Apalachi and Mr Pointment in the Becher Chase. 3 lbs higher than when 3 length 2nd in Kerry National. ( I can’t help it; there, I’ve just had my second bet on Ponmeoath for the GN. Please don’t insult my intelligence by pricing him up at 250.)
Crashed the PC again.
Has had 24 chases, and is about as high as the Irish H’capper has ever had him. (The British H’capper has him 5 lbs higher.)-0P05 BAILY BREEZE 9 10-9 MF Morris BF30
Remote 5th in Kells H’cap Chase at Navan last time. 15 lbs lower than when 8th in the GN. ( What has the British H’capper got against Irish horses? At this rate, Ponmeoath is going to be rated 150.) Okay, here is a nice bit of form: is 1 lb lower than when won 2m6f H’cap Chase at Galway 29 Oct 07. Is also 7 lbs lower than when 7.5 length 6th in this last year. I think I need a straitjacket figuring out this horse’s form, rather than any of AJM’s charges.611- EMMA JANE 8 10-9 WP Mullins BF14
8 lbs higher than when a victor at the Punchestown Festival, in her first h’cap. Is the trainer being ultra-selective, or has there been a problem with the mare? To win this on a seasonal debut against 29 rivals would be some feat, and I can’t be having it. I have noticed that it is easier to win a h’cap hdle first time out at this time of year, than a h’cap chase.-62F2111d2 OPERATION HOUDINI 6 10-9 DE Fitzgerald BF10.5
The favourite, at the moment. 7 lbs higher than when 1 length 2nd to Notre Pere in the Troytown, 14 lbs higher than when sh hd victor of Cork GN (disqualified and placed second). Has a fair chance, but I wouldn’t place him clear of a couple of the rest. Has he had enough racing this Fall?-5 CALLHERWHATULIKE 7 10-8 Robert Tyner BF17
Has never run in a h’cap. How will she cope? Potentially 3 or 4 lbs well in, but that won’t be enough to win. I’m getting a bit too dismissive of these horses, and I’ll have to come back and look at these last three again.-211 HOOPY 6 10-7 Gordon Elliott BF13
The "beneficiary" of the whip incident in the Amateurs’ race at the Open Meeting. Is only 2 lbs higher. Gee, that Irish H’capper is far nicer than the British one. I much prefer this to the other 10-16/1 shots we’ve come across so far. I’ve taken the remaining 15, and he went to 12.5 and has since gone out to 13. I suggest the jockey keeps a spare whip down his boot. This horse might have been ignored so far for the PP, as it wasn’t sure whether he’d go for the Welsh National or not. The trainer has probably developed a taste for winning big races.Betfair prices are as at 8.30am. Betting is currently suspended, so I suppose the final decs will be out by the time I’ve finished this.
-35 POLMAR 5 10-7 WP Mullins BF34
Never run in a h’cap. Run in 6 chases, 5 in France. 14 lengths 3rd in 2m4f Chase at Clonmel. The winner and 4th have franked the form, but the 2nd hasn’t. Running off 124, and given an RPR of 126, so fairly handicapped. Last race was a hurdle. Dark horse, I’ll put him on the back-burner until the final decs are out – I want to make sure he is running.-1 BRIDGE RUN 7 10-6 Noel Meade BF23
Ran in 5 chases in Autumn 2007, but missed 2nd part of season. Won a Beginners Chase last time out, which TS rates as 127, and RPR 125. Now theoretically, RPR can’t be lower than TS. I suppose we just have to wait to see which horse Carberry is riding.-P3 DREUX 6 10-6 Thomas Cooper BF48
3rd was in a H’cap Hdle. Was 14 length 6th in 4m NH Chase at the Cheltenham Festival, which TS ranks 8lbs and RPR 10 lbs higher than current OR. (The 4th, who was 1.5 lengths ahead, won the Silver Cup at Ascot on Saturday.) I’ve put £3 on him, which is a little bit more than a saver.-74 WELL RUN 7 10-6 Mrs John Harrington BF38
On the form this month, the Stewards will be calling in Jessica if this wins, and it won’t be for tea and scones. Has 3 nice pieces of form last Dec, Jan & Feb, when trained by Meade. Won H’cap Chase by 10 lengths (now 23lbs higher). New Year’s Day, beat Oscar India at Fairyhouse (now 21 lbs higher). Won the Ulster GN by 5.5, 5.5 and 16 lengths (now 10 lbs higher). Smallish horse, but stays out of trouble by frontrunning. I’ll be interested later in the season, but I can’t consider him here, when he’s been beaten 59 lengths and 50 lengths in the past month.-2143 PARSONS PISTOL 6 10-5 Noel Meade BF18.5 Not Declared[/color:cwbf836s]
Novice. Was 5.5 length 3rd on his H’cap debut last time (now 3 lbs higher). As I mentioned at the start of this thread, his hurdle rating is 13 lbs higher than his chase rating, so improvement would normally be expected. Is also entered in G1 Novice Chase on the 28th. The horse was unhappy at Kilbeggan, but due to ignorance, that means nothing to me.-6325 BRONTE BAY 5 10-3 Paul W Flynn BF18
Novice, yet to run in a h’cap. Best run is when beaten 7 length in 2m4f Beginners Chase at Navan. Beaten 30 lengths by Bridge Run last time. Why is the price so low?-4UP HAIRY MOLLY 8 10-3 Joseph Crowley BF42
2nd season chaser, winner of the Cheltenham Festival Bumper. As alluded to by Grimes, has jumping problems. Was moderate 5th when made a mistake 2 out last week and PU. Won’t have got much schooling in since then. Doesn’t have a hurdle OR, but RPR hurdle rating is 15 lbs higher than RPR chase rating.-0011751 CONEM 8 10-2 WJ Austin BF38
Generally been running over 2m4f, but stays 2m6f over hurdles. I’m rather hoping he’s a non-runner, so I don’t have to make a decision.-0 ANSHIRE TOWER 8 10-1 Seamus Neville BF130
Beaten 76 lengths in a h’cap hurdle. Has also been PU in a P-t-P, in first race for 14 months. Was slowly away in P-t-P, and then made progress, before PU. Even at 130, I’m not tempted. (New Years resolution has started early.)-873 THE HALFWAY BAR 7 10-1 Robert Tyner BF34
Second season chaser. Hurdle rating is 7 lbs higher. Hasn’t shown any form this season – was beaten a distance when 3rd. 7th in Cork GN, so the trainer is following the previous blueprint, but maybe the horse ain’t up to it. Needs time between races, and is being given a months gap between each race.I suppose, what we have to do now is wait for the declarations, and for Gingertipster to tell us what is what.
Parson’s Pistol not declared, Hold The Pin second reserve- they must have changed the safety limit to 28. AJ has Patsy Hall who I’d like evens about being a non-runner! What price some frantic phone calls from AJM to get one to drop out (like Dun Doire in the Thyestes 2 years ago…)
Ouch, my Savers will have to step up to the plate. I think I’ve already got a couple on Bridge Run.
Carvill, where are the entries? They ain’t on the RP site yet, and I looked at the Turf Club site earlier this morning, and it didn’t seem to be the right Irish site for entries and declarations.
Found it. Goracing.ie
Race time is now 3.00[/color:1d9xvexu]
-223P BEAUTIFUL VISION 8 10-0 TJ Taaffe
Hurdles rating is 10 lbs higher. PU in Troytown, and was another horse to be hampered. Is only 2 lbs higher for the placed efforts this season. Has stayed in the same 2 lb band, 115-117, for his past 5 h’cap chases. Needs to show improvement to win.-9 PAY IT FORWARD 10 10-0 Martin Brassil 1st Reserve[/color:1kni5wyx]
Missing for 2005-06 and 2006-07 seasons. Is now 17 lbs lower than when running in the Midlands Grand National. Was beaten 73 lengths in a hurdle race 3 weeks ago. I’ll be interested in this horse later in the season.-095 HOLD THE PIN 9 9-13 AJ Martin 2nd Reserve[/color:1kni5wyx]
28 length 5th in the Troytown. Blew up, according to Carvillshill. Was disputing the lead when fell at the last at Punchestown Festival ( now 2lbs higher) Good. Also has form on Heavy, having won a h’cap hdle at Navan in March.
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