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Tuffers – have you read the article relating to this story?
An owner could lay his horse for buttons on Betfair to manipulate the market and then (if he could get on in the size that someone like Bill Hinge clearly can) back the horse for thousands with the bookmakers at inflated odds.
For Example
An owner could put up8.0 for £5
9.0 for £20
10.0 for £5
to back on Betfair (the owner being the one laying the horse)The Betfair following firms – or ones with bots will automatically move the price from say 5/1 out to 8/1 (just under Betfair) and then the owner has £2,000 @ 8/1.
He’s been able to artificially push the price out – if nobody will lay him his £2,000 then he pulls the horse out and gets refunds on the Betfair lays (if any are matched) and a refund on whatever he’s managed to get on at the right price.
Tuffers – have you read the article relating to this story?
An owner could lay his horse for buttons on Betfair to manipulate the market and then (if he could get on in the size that someone like Bill Hinge clearly can) back the horse for thousands with the bookmakers at inflated odds.
How anyone can treat the early exchanges on Betfair as a serious guide to the market is beyond me.
The trading early on is so ridiculously thin that it cannot possibly represent anything like ‘the view of the market’.
Like I said, no serious punter tries to get on any earlier than ten minutes before the off on Betfair so if bookies choose to make their book based on the £2 trades of a bunch of bored, casual punters and complete muppets then more fool them.
If, as you say, it’s so easy to ‘manipulate the market’ then it wouldn’t be owners we needed to worry about, it would be the bookies.
Like I said, no serious punter tries to get on any earlier than ten minutes before the off on Betfair so if bookies choose to make their book based on the £2 trades of a bunch of bored, casual punters and complete muppets then more fool them.
Seems like they do
If, as you say, it’s so easy to ‘manipulate the market’ then it wouldn’t be owners we needed to worry about, it would be the bookies.
The bookies take over the manipulation in the last 5 minutes. Not a bad thing imo. Exchange prices start to reflect mug betting shop opinion at that stage, which creates value for the rest of us.
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Someone may be able to manipulate the early exchange market for ‘buttons’, TDK, but for £6?
In what order were the bets placed? Did Mr Hinge ‘rack up’ liabilities of £600 and £6 before or after placing bets of £6000 and £8000?
Market manipulation is an inherently risky game and if someone doesn’t get away with it (pesky kids or whatever it may be) then I’m afraid I have no sympathy for them. But a non-runner is a non-runner, isn’t it? Why would one manipulator come unstuck whilst an equally manipulative owner (who, given the other active saboteurs, would have his job done for him – and vice versa) lost nothing?
Unless it is proven that Mr Hinge has attempted to inflate the price of his own horse (which, as a joint owner, he couldn’t declare a non-runner anyway) then the BHA have taken the appropriate action. Besides, how often do bookmakers create fantasy gambles to influence markets?
In what order were the bets placed? Did Mr Hinge ‘rack up’ liabilities of £600 and £6 before or after placing bets of £6000 and £8000?
These are questions one would hope the BHA have asked…
Tuffers – have you read the article relating to this story?
An owner could lay his horse for buttons on Betfair to manipulate the market and then (if he could get on in the size that someone like Bill Hinge clearly can) back the horse for thousands with the bookmakers at inflated odds.
How anyone can treat the early exchanges on Betfair as a serious guide to the market is beyond me.
The trading early on is so ridiculously thin that it cannot possibly represent anything like ‘the view of the market’.
Like I said, no serious punter tries to get on any earlier than ten minutes before the off on Betfair so if bookies choose to make their book based on the £2 trades of a bunch of bored, casual punters and complete muppets then more fool them.
If, as you say, it’s so easy to ‘manipulate the market’ then it wouldn’t be owners we needed to worry about, it would be the bookies.
1. The bookies do indeed use the prices in the thin early Betfair trade to price up.
2. It is very easy to manipulate this market for very small amounts
3. I would bet ten on the small lay bets in this case were placed well before the thousands with the bookmakers.Mr Hinge’s only problem was getting caught- with a bit more subtlety he could easily have avoided being linked to the lay bets.
Personally I don’t have much sympathy for the bookies in these cases- they need to do their homework and have confidence in their opinions rather than slavishly following the exchanges. As long as they do the latter they will be open to this kind of sting and you can bet that for every one we read about there are hundreds which remain undetected.
I’d love to see Betfair introduce a commission-free timezone to their racing markets up until say two hours before racetime- this would improve liquidity and wouldn’t lose them that much revenue.But surely there’s no need to be an owner to engage in this sort of manipulation? If what you say is true then all anyone needs to do to make the market for any race is to have two Betfair accounts and trade effectively with himself to set the price for every horse?
Example: I want to back a horse at a particular price with the bookies.
I go on to Betfair the night before and for the horse in question click the ‘back’ button and the odds I require. Using my other account I then ‘lay’ that bet thus setting the price that will then be used by the bookies when pricing up the race the following morning.
Am I missing something here?
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