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I’ve been backing horses long enough to know that there is no such thing as a certainty and I’ve seen countless top rated, well backed favourites well beaten. What does surprise me lately is the apparent ease with which many long priced winners defeat hot favourites, requiring no more than a flick of the reins to send them surging to the front. Very often the beaten favourite looks completely outclassed. I realise that there are horses with disguised form held back until the big day but there seems to be more of them than there was ten years ago.
Am I alone in forming this impression, can anyone offer an explanation?
The strike rate for favourites during the first half of January was just short of 39%. You’d have been 17 points and 4.5% up blindly backing every favourite at SP in that period. Favourite returns over time are pretty much set in stone at a little under 32% and -7.5% at bookmaker SP.
So its just the market normalising after the earlier gains. The bookmakers and levy would be out of business if it didn’t.
Thanks for the reply. My post was about the ease with which outsiders trounce top rated, well backed favourites. Every day of the week you will see long priced winners absolutely stuffing hot favs not simply pipping them at the post. I know about the fav/win ratio, it’s pretty much a constant worldwide, 39% is high.
Thanks for the reply. My post was about the ease with which outsiders trounce top rated, well backed favourites. Every day of the week you will see long priced winners absolutely stuffing hot favs not simply pipping them at the post. I know about the fav/win ratio, it’s pretty much a constant worldwide, 39% is high.
Hi Wool,
I for one know exactly what you mean ! horses winning at 100/1
66/1 33/1…Like you I do think they keep good horses back for a big payout day at massive odds……
So do I weeyin, so I’ve no problem what so ever if outsiders come in regularly.
The circumstances of National Hunt racing in particular may see some favourites run way below form. If they don’t jump well or sturggle in mid-winter going then it’s no surprise that some go astray by a long way. The secret in opposing them is identifying horses which have a chance if they can run to their best, often given that chance because of conditions or the way the race is run suits them.
The original poster might help his case if he could give a few examples rather than a nebulous statements about outsiders beating favourites easily.
Rob (80 on Betfair, I’ll have that) North
Examples abound, simply view a few races and note the manner in which an unfancied runner will readily respond to minimal pressure from the pilot to win emphatically. Check results over a short period to expose the futility of following the market.
Woolf
Well if examples abound then perhaps you would care to list them.
In the past seven days there have been 89 National Hunt races of which 14 have been won by horses placed 14/1 or more. I reckon this would be pretty much normal for a selection of such races.
Sunday 12 races
Market Rasen
Quo Video won by 5l at 20/1 stayed on strongly (Beginners chase -5 ran , second hit fences at key points, two others were ‘not fluent’)
Apache Chant won by 1/2 length all out
Towcester, normally a haven for long-shot backers because it’s such a slog, had no outsider winners.Monday – 7 races – no long shots
Tuesday – 14 races
Leicester – none
Sedgefield – Sea Cliff 14/1 driven to hold a field ‘unreliable old soaks’ by 1/2 length
Matthew Riley won a Newcomers NH Flat at 16/1 going clear. So, he’s a decent but unconsidered newcomer!Wednesday – 14 races
Huntingdon – Nobunaga won by a head at 66/1 – driven out
Mr Moonshine won by 4 lengths at 16/1 made all, clear 9th,…eased flat
Musselburgh
Waldvogel won by 1.25l 20/1 lead after last, kept on wellThursday – 14 races
Ffos Las
Kaybeew won by a head at 66/1 – driven out
Thelobstercatcher won by 2.5l at 25/1 – drew clear on bit… raced awkwardly flat…eased final 100 yards
Hildivini won by 2l at 16/1 stayed on final 100 yardsFriday – 14 races
Doncaster
Solis won by 2l at 16/1 stayed on well
Fontwell
Swainson won by 3.75l at 33/1 ridden out
Balustrade won by 1l at 50/1 driven out
Dune Shine won by 1l at 20/1 ridden outSaturday – 14 races
No outsider iwnnersThe only ones which might be considered to fit your pattern of ‘readily responding to minimal pressure to win emphatically’ are:
Quo Video
who simply jumpecd more proficiently than his beginner opponents.
Thelobstercatcher
whose race comments suggest ability but not necessarily the inclination to use it.
Mr Moonshine
who was gifted an easy lead and other never got to him. Surely either a clanger by the other jockeys or a case of a horse that needs to settle in the the lead and got lucky.
PossiblyHildivini
, but it was a NH Flat race with little form to base previous judgements.
I learn more from paddock judegemnt in these races than at any other time.
Matthew Riley
, a decent NH Flat newcomer simply not considered in the market.
Swainson
whose previous record around Fontwell of 47123444 doesn’t look like the record of a 33/1 shot.
The only one that fits the bill appears to be Mr Moonshine.
That aside, if horses are held back for ‘the big day’ then they aren’t going to start at fancy prices. In which case more’s the pity if I’ve spotted the win might be coming!
Rob
Isn’t it the case that, over time, a horse’s market price is a pretty accurate reflection of its chance (minus the margin)?
Don’t know what you are driving at exactly Woolf but it’s statistically inevitable that a certain number of outsiders will win.
Outsiders do win.
Well backed outsiders who have been held back until their ‘Big Day’ are no longer outsiders.
I’ve been trapping outsiders since 1975, some win easily some struggle. I research a small stable, say up to 40 horses in the yard. I log every entry the trainer makes on graph paper, also I note the finishing position and SP. National Hunt yards provide a steady income up until January 1st. Look for stables who produce first time out novice hurdlers. From October to end of November there may be six runners, often one will win. Once you’ve established a pattern, add another stable to your port foliO.Another way is to read Spotlight in the Racing Post, Maidens and Novices are a good source. If theanalyst seems uncertain about a horse and doesn’t include it in the Verdict. Mel Cullinan had a nagging doubt about Balustrade on Friday Fontwell 2-40. Good luck. Nuthatch
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There will, of course, be times when horses are ‘prepared’ to peak on specific days – Maxilon 5 and I have had some recent success on the all-weather in that respect – but with a handful of trainers perceived to be so dominant, false markets underestimate the chances of representatives of smaller yards.
The unpredictability – and, conversely, intelligence – of certain trainers doesn’t help either.
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I’ve been backing horses long enough to know that there is no such thing as a certainty and I’ve seen countless top rated, well backed favourites well beaten. What does surprise me lately is the apparent ease with which many long priced winners defeat hot favourites, requiring no more than a flick of the reins to send them surging to the front. Very often the beaten favourite looks completely outclassed. I realise that there are horses with disguised form held back until the big day but there seems to be more of them than there was ten years ago.
Am I alone in forming this impression, can anyone offer an explanation?
Woolf
Imo, racing’s little different to what it has been for years, markets may be a little more accurate, but outsiders still win, and they aren’t always the forlorn hopes their prices suggest they should be.
Try working from the premise that ‘there has to be a reason for everything’. You’re not gonna understand them all – nobody does – but at least you’ll appreciate that it isn’t just luck when the ‘Mon Momes’ of this world win races.
(Or, alternatively, you could just stab around in the dark – and call yourself a value punter.
)It’s interesting to compare race notes recording the way a race went for the winner and the beaten favourite. Very often the winner will have demonstrated impeccable jumping, not touching a twig, the short priced losing favourite will in all probability have blundered through many fences. My idea of an outsider incidently, would be upwards of 8/1.
Of course not every big priced winner strolls to the front at the shake of the reins but many appear to outclass the very short priced favourite.
Woolf
Well that’s the game’s all about, teaching horses how to jump properly. Look at the Quo Video example from Market Rasen. There isn’t some rule which says outsiders aren’t allowed to get it right and favourties will always jump well.
An outsider 8/1 or more? You have to be joking! That’s a price which is a percentage less than the average win percentages of races overall. What about in large fields, 6/1 the field is not unusual which would make 8/1 near favourite.
You continue with you bland pronouncements about outsiders, yet fail to provide a shred of evidence to back up what you claim. It took me three-quarters of an hour to do an analysis of the week’s National Hunt outsiders, using whta I would consider a reasonable mark of 14/1.
Just a few different examples from fairly recent history as to why outsiders sometimes turn out to better value than they first appear. Three I backed, one I missed!
OSCARDEAL – Southwell 17.02.09 – Class 3 Hcap Hurdle – won in a bobbing finish at 40/1. I tipped it on Daily Lays & Plays and backed it at an average of 165 on Betfair. Recent form 5176P8, but significantly a C/D winner with a course record of 1F1. In the company not a clear contender, but no 164/1 chance by a long way. at thos e odds I only have to right arou7nd 1 in 100 to be well in front. Beat the 9/2 second favourite on the nod all out.
SEEKING POWER – Kelso 18.02.10 – Class 5 Handicap chase – won in a tight finish at 40/1.
A 14 runner fierld with doubts about most contenders. A race ripe
for an outsider to win. Seeking Power was beaten 34l at Hexham previously in similar muddy conditions, but the first two were Cheltenham bound and he saw off his only opponent for third place. The trainer suffered severely in snowy weather, picture published on his website, and all his runners needed the race when S.P. was seen out at Newcastle. The slog ronud Kelso suited judeged by his Hexham effort.
I backed four at 10/1 plus in this race on the basis it seemed likely to go to something at a fancy price. With only four races behind him, Seeking Power at least ahd scope to go forward unlike most.SHORT SUPPLY – Hamilton 31.07.10 – won at 33/1 l eading at the furlong pole and pulling clear.
An example where being by the paddock was the key, and I know we can’t all do that. Short supply had run poorly previously, and tim Walford’s had been way out of form, but the mare has at least led till 3f out on her previous run. More to the point, Walford clearly had her as fit as he could get her on paddock looks. I noted this, then her form and thought that she’d run well…., and left her unbacked! What I missed was ‘value’ smacking me in the chops!TIGER O’TOOLE – Ascot 22.01.11 – won at 40/1, held up at the back off a lightning paced and picked off the field from three out. Got up in a driving finish.
Another race where I backed four outsiders against the field, this one, Sophie’s Trophy, Spear Thistle and Warne’s Way. A winner three times in lower class, this one had taken time to adjust to better races but hinted at improvement with a staying on fifth at Sandown. Given that lough Derg and a few other front-runners were in the field, this at least gave Paul Moloney a chance of holding his mount up off the pace. He did the job to perfection, seeing off Lough Derg and then Walkon after the last.I’ve had stackes of similar selections which have been out with the washing, but at big double figure prices you don’t have to be right that often to get in front. I do normally back multiple selctions in a race, so it is a scatter gun approach, but great when it works!
Incidentally, although I don’t follow his methods, Ross Newton’s book ‘The Tail End System’ is well worth a glance in regard to outsiders winning. It encourages you to ‘turn the race upside down’ when analysing. I found it thought provoking.
For all those that scoff at value, the way you get in front is by either being quicker than the crowd or, as Alan Potts wopuld have it, ‘against the crowd’.
You probably won’t agree with much of this Wolff, but at least I’ve taken the time to give a few examples and show why outsiders are sometimes more likely than you think. Anyway, if you stick to backing the favourites in the same races I back the rags then I’d reckon to come out in front often enough.
Rob
P.S. to reet hard – I look at it as achieving value but whether you call it ‘value’, ‘edge’ or ‘oojamahcondawhipth’, it’s what puts you in front in long term.
Robnorth….You appear to be agreeing with me in that you are promoting the advantages of backing outsiders over short priced favourites. I checked some of your posts on other forums hoping to see the fruits of your methods, could you direct me to some of the juciest pre race predictions? Thanks, I’m sure I could learn much to my adavantage.
I am in awe of a backer who regards an 8/1 winner as nothing special, on the rare occasion when I back a winner at similar odds, it takes a while for the smile to disappear having backed what many will regard as an outsider.
Approximatley one sixth of all national hunt racing are won by a runner with a bigger price than 10/1 which makes them an outsider.
It would be pretty dull if that wasnt the case.The clues are there if you can be bothered to study the form and go with a little intuition on what you’ve read. Always ignore opinions ie the press. A lot of the time they make the book like it is.
I started a spreadsheet in October last year just from result reading in the mornings paper trying to spot if there was a trend where outsiders were more likely to win at certain racecourses more than others. There wasnt.
Apart from Cheltenham and Ascot where the grade of racing is better quality longer price winners were going in everywhere for one sixth which is an easy fraction to see at a meetingI’ve not checked so much into 2011 but its still about one sixth and coming in at pretty massive prices 66’s and 40’s especially the juvenile divisons ie novice hurdeles and beginner chases
Wolf,
I can’t believe you think 8/1 is an outsider / a surprise when it beats a "short priced favourite".
Say there is a 14 runner race as below, with a 6/4 favourite and loads of "outsiders".
6/4, 8/1, 17/2, 9/1, 10/1, 12/1, 14/1, 16/1, 20/1, 25/1, 33/1, 50/1, 66/1, 100/1.
If you take a bookies percentage off the 6/4 shot, it has around a 38% chance of winning. ie The other horses combined chance is quite a bit better than the favourite.
Also,
If an odds compiler believes a horse has a 38% chance of winning, he may add 2% to that. 38 + 2 = 40 = 6/4. Offering 6/4 (40%).
If an odds compiler believes a horse has a 9.5% chance of winning, he may add 1.5% to that. 9.5 + 1.5 = 11 = 8/1 (11.1%).
(the amount he adds depends on how much over-round he wants to work to and if the horse in question is exposed or unexposed).So if there were 4 horses he thought had 9.5% chances of winning:
4 X 9.5 = 38
and
1 X 38 = 38So with bookmakers prices, any 6/4 shot may have the same over all chance as four 8/1 shots put together. When there are so many horses going off at 8/1 or more, it is hardly a surprise so many "outsiders" win, and win "easily".
Value Is Everything
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