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Hennessy Race Trend Ratings.<br>======================
FinPos,horse,Won class1 or2 chs,1st or 2nd LTO,4 to 11 chs runs,won 3m+,6 to 8yo,+40% chs sr,OR 136 to 145,<11-01,since month,score
1  State Of Play,10,10,10,10,8,9,8,2,3     70<br>14 Presenting Express,0,10,10,10,8,9,8,8,3  66<br>10 Vodka Bleu,10,10,10,0,8,9,2,8,7       64<br>12 Ardaghey,0,10,10,10,8,1,8,8,7        62<br>16 Napolitain,10,0,10,10,2,9,8,8,3        60<br>5  Parsons Legacy,10,10,0,10,8,1,2,8,7    56<br>6  Idle Talk,0,10,10,10,8,1,8,2,7         56<br>7  Montgermont,10,0,10,10,8,1,8,2,3      52<br>15 Bothar Na,0,0,10,10,8,1,8,8,7         52<br>13 Turpin Green,10,10,10,0,8,1,2,2,7       50<br>3  Preacher Boy,0,10,10,0,8,1,2,8,7      46<br>8  Keltic Bard,10,0,10,0,2,1,8,8,7         46<br>2  Juveigneur,10,0,0,10,2,1,8,2,7          40<br>9  Cornish Rebel,10,0,10,10,2,1,2,2,3       40<br>11 Ross Comm,0,0,0,10,2,1,8,8,7          36<br>4  Omni Cosmo Touch,0,0,0,10,2,1,2,8,7     30
(Edited by carlisle at 10:47 am on Dec. 15, 2006)
The following six horses are the only ones that showed any form, in the race.
1st  State Of Play       ,10,10,10,10,8,9,8,2,3  70 <br>5th  Parsons Legacy     ,10,10, 0,10,8,1,2,8,7  56 <br>6th  Idle Talk          , 0,10,10,10,8,1,8,2,7  56<br>3rd  Preacher Boy       , 0,10,10, 0,8,1,2,8,7  46 <br>2nd Juveigneur         ,10, 0, 0,10,2,1,8,2,7   40 <br>4th  Omni Cosmo Touch   , 0, 0, 0, 10,2,1,2,8,7   30
<br>14 Presenting Express,0,10,10,10,8,9,8,8,3  66 <br>10 Vodka Bleu,10,10,10,0,8,9,2,8,7       64 <br>12 Ardaghey,0,10,10,10,8,1,8,8,7        62 <br>16 Napolitain,10,0,10,10,2,9,8,8,3        60 <br>7  Montgermont,10,0,10,10,8,1,8,2,3      52<br>15 Bothar Na,0,0,10,10,8,1,8,8,7         52 <br>13 Turpin Green,10,10,10,0,8,1,2,2,7      50 <br>8  Keltic Bard,10,0,10,0,2,1,8,8,7         46 <br>9  Cornish Rebel,10,0,10,10,2,1,2,2,3      40 <br>11 Ross Comm,0,0,0,10,2,1,8,8,7         36
blue=excuse for bad run
10 didn’t stay      ,0,  for 3m+ win<br>12 saddle slipped<br>13 bad mistake at the first<br>9  recent wind operation
<br>ps the only one to leave out of future trend analysis would be Ardaghey
(Edited by carlisle at 7:15 pm on Dec. 18, 2006)
this begs the question, which other horses should be excluded from any trends analysis.
The only important factor about Ardaghey’s run was the fact that his saddle slipped.
<br>
(Edited by carlisle at 9:43 am on Dec. 20, 2006)
reet hard & Aranalde comments are useful and very valid.
To say "a horse carrying more than 11stone cannot win the Hennessy!" is daft.
I would like to give the horse a score that reflects it’s proximity to the trend standard.  Currently I am trying to develop a way to establishing this measurement.
Any trend analysis must strike a "real life" chord, that resonates with logic and common sense.
Why should the Hennessey examination favour the following:
Second season, lightly raced, improving chasers. That have a touch of class, handily weighted with good current form……etc<br>?<br>byefrom<br>carlisle
ps I would like to give the individual trends a strength factor.
pps I am a stats novice…..I want to investigate Impact Values. Using the Hennessey as a study vehicle is hopefully going to be fruitful.
(Edited by carlisle at 8:39 pm on Dec. 21, 2006)
Some basic King George stats analysis on another thread (entitled ‘King George stats’ or somesuch)<br>
Thanks cormack
I will try to continue my project in the Trends, Research & Notebook section of the forum.
OK Carlisle – I think we’ll take the whole thing there and update in teh Horse Racing section when we have significant progress.
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