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Viewing 17 posts - 1 through 17 (of 17 total)
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  • #11612
    Trendsman
    Member
    • Total Posts 206

    many people have their own methods of doing trends for races, i feel i have an unique approach which might be disliked or not, but i will put them up here and break them down how i have come to my final conclusion on my selection process.

    I will choose one race a day of my choice and put it up on here and see how we go there forth.

    #231916
    Trendsman
    Member
    • Total Posts 206

    Hamilton

    Prestige Scotland Handicap (Qualifier) (Class 5) (4YO plus) 1m 65y[/color:1m9v6tag]

    Top Trainer at the Course

    S.Parr : 15.38%
    A.G.Foster : 0.00%[/color:1m9v6tag]
    A.Swinbank :11.97%
    E Alston : 11.46%
    A McWilliams : 4.76%[/color:1m9v6tag]
    B.P.J.Baugh : 5.88%[/color:1m9v6tag]
    I Semple : 11.63%
    P.Midgley : 7.14%[/color:1m9v6tag]

    Now so you know what i am doing here, everything below a 10.00% strike rate becomes eliminated.So the trainers horse’s that go are below.

    Bourse

    Forzarzi

    Tanforan

    Singora Lady

    Top Jocks at Course

    P Mulrennan : 7.73%[/color:1m9v6tag]
    T.Eaves : 11.35%
    D Allan : 9.84%[/color:1m9v6tag]
    P Donaghy : 8.06%[/color:1m9v6tag]
    D Gibson : 6.93%[/color:1m9v6tag]

    Same again i will eliminate the jocks that have below 10.00% strike rate at the track..results below.

    This One’s For Eddy

    Pianoforte

    Bold Indian

    Bright Falcon

    This has made this selection process easier with only the one runner left in the field.

    Trainer and Jock Combination

    20.83% / +6.50[/color:1m9v6tag]

    Selection

    : MOUNTAIN CAT[/color:1m9v6tag]

    #231990
    Trendsman
    Member
    • Total Posts 206

    Good Start 6/4F Winner

    #231998
    Trendsman
    Member
    • Total Posts 206

    Epsom

    14.45 Investec Coronation Cup (Group 1) (Class 1) (4YO plus)[/color:zvalo5op]

    Top trainer at Course

    Sir Michael Stoute : 19.44%
    Andrew Balding : 11.84%
    John Gosden : 16.67%
    Saeed Bin Suroor : 19.35%
    Aiden O’Brien : 10.77%
    Mick Channon : 9.19%[/color:zvalo5op]
    Ray Beckett : 21.43%

    Again i will stick to the elimination of trainers that have below 10.00% at the course.

    Youmzain

    Top Jockeys at the Course

    Ryan Moore : 18.75%
    William Buick : 25.00%
    Jimmy Fortune : 9.88%[/color:zvalo5op]
    Frankie Dettori : 23.31%
    Johnny Murtagh : 17.88%
    Seb Sanders : 13.13%

    Again i will eliminate the jockey that has under 10.00% strike rate at the course.

    Duncan

    Jockey & Trainer Combination

    Ryan Moore & Sir Michael Stoute : 23.80%
    William Buick & Andrew Balding : 16.28%[/color:zvalo5op]
    Frankie Dettori & Saeed Bin Suroor : 27.30%
    Richard Mullen & John Gosden : 12.50%[/color:zvalo5op]
    Johnny Murtagh & Aiden O’Brien : 26.48%
    Seb Sanders & Ray Beckett : 100.00%

    Here we will now loose the bottom two that have the lowest combination and eliminate them accordingly

    Buccellati

    Expresso Star

    Placed 1-2 on the Ground

    Ask
    Eastern Anthem
    Look Here

    Fastest Time over Trip and Ground

    Ask : 154.47
    Eastern Anthem : 151.84 (Dubai) 157.82 (UK)
    Look Here : 156.88

    Selection

    : ASK[/color:zvalo5op]

    Eastern Anthem has been eliminated due to the run at Nad Al Sheba and his run on UK soil is much slower than the remaining three.

    #232311
    Trendsman
    Member
    • Total Posts 206

    Newcastle

    21.20 Marie Curie Handicap (Class 5) (3YO only)[/color:73fnkbl4]

    Top Trainer At Course

    Paul Midgley : 9.43%[/color:73fnkbl4]
    Ollie Pears : 16.67%
    Mel Brittain : 4.05%[/color:73fnkbl4]
    I.W.Mcinnes : 00.00%[/color:73fnkbl4]
    Karl Burke : 10.97%
    Geoff Oldroyd : 15.00%

    Now i will eliminate trainers that have below 10.00% strike rate.

    Dispol Kylie

    Dispol Grand

    Rossett Rose

    Red Cell

    Top Jockeys At The Course

    Tony Hamilton : 5.20%[/color:73fnkbl4]
    Martin Lane : 50.00%
    Natalia Gemelova : 4.00%[/color:73fnkbl4]

    Now i will eliminate the Jockeys that have under 10.00% at the course

    Noodles Blue Boy

    Singapore Girl

    Again we have managed to get to the conclusion early

    Jockey & Trainer Combination

    21.88% / +20.35[/color:73fnkbl4]

    Selection

    : IACHIMO[/color:73fnkbl4]

    #232421
    tbracing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1453

    Good start Trendsman

    #232507
    Trendsman
    Member
    • Total Posts 206

    Attempting a National Hunt race today.

    Worcester

    Neu Servo Handicap Chase (Class 5) (5YO plus)

    Top Trainer at Course

    Mark Scudamore : 13.79%
    Tim Vaughan : 12.50%
    Mrs K Waldron : 00.00%
    S.C.Burrough : 13.04%
    M.Sheppard : 9.00%
    F.Jordon : 00.00%

    Now i will eliminate the trainers that have below 10.00%.

    Milton Des Bieffes

    Sarah’s Gift

    Millenium Mag

    Top Jockeys At Course

    Tom Scudamore : 13.04%
    Richard Johnson : 18.16%
    Paddy Brennan : 10.89%

    All have survived the 10.00% elimination.

    Jockey & Trainer Combination

    Scudamore & Scudamore : 8.78%
    Johnson & Vaughan : 25.15%
    Brennan & Burrough : 00.00%

    Now the bottom combination will be eliminated

    Digital Media

    Placed 1-2 on Ground

    Kayceecee

    Selection

    :

    KAYCEECEE

    #232657
    Trendsman
    Member
    • Total Posts 206

    Folkestone

    14.15 Eastwell Manor Handicap (Class 6) (4YO plus) 5F

    Top Trainers at Course

    Brendan Powell : 8.72%

    George Baker : 25.00%

    Milton Bradley : 6.67%
    John Jenkins : 6.20%
    Philip McEntee : 8.57%
    Stef Liddiard : 6.67%
    Ron Hodges : 9.21%

    J.G.M O’Shea : 12.50%

    R Bastiman : 20.00%

    Peter Grayson : 25.00%

    Andrew Chamberlain : 00.00%

    Here i will eliminate all trainers that have under a 10.00% strike rate.

    Pick Up Sticks
    Triple Dream
    Sandy Par
    Bookiesindex Boy
    Thoughtsofstardom
    Green Lagonda
    Miss Firefly
    Mr Loire

    Top Jockey at the Course

    Matthew Davies : 00.00%
    Catherine Gannon : 00.00%
    Jack Mitchell : 00.00%

    Liam Jones : 10.60%

    P Mathers : 16.67%

    J.F.McDonald : 2.99%

    Now i will eliminate all jockeys that have got under a 10.005 strike rate at the course.

    Music Box Express
    Walragnek
    Valient Romeo

    Jockey & Trainer Combination

    Jones & Grayson : 11.76%
    Mathers & Grayson : 2.68%
    J.F.McDonald & Grayson : 00.00%

    Now i will eliminate the lowest combination.

    Lady Hopeful

    Best Time over trip and going

    MAGIC GLADE : 59.75
    RIGHTCAR LEWIS : 60.10

    Selection : MAGIC GLADE (E/W)

    #232766
    Trendsman
    Member
    • Total Posts 206

    Redcar

    15.35 Boddingtons Redcar Straight-mile Championship Handicap (qualifier) (Class 3) (3YO plus)

    Top Trainer At Course

    Richard Fahey : 8.68%

    F.P.Murtagh : 00.00%

    Bryan Smart : 13.90%

    David Barker : 4.83%

    Eric Alston : 10.00%

    Tim Easterby : 7.23%

    Dandy Nicholls : 8.30%

    Mark Johnston : 15.23%

    Now i will eliminate the one’s that are below the 10.00% trend

    Dream Lodge

    Wovoka

    Observatory Star

    Minority Report

    Top Jockey At The Course

    Tom Eaves : 7.49%

    Neil Callan : 16.75%
    Nickey Mackay : 15.69%

    Now i will eliminate the lowest jockey who has under the 10.00% trend

    Ansell’s Pride

    Jockey & Trainer Combination

    Callan & Alston : 00.00%

    Mackay & Johnston : 10.00%

    Now i will eliminate the lowest Combination

    Summer Gold

    I have now made things easier and now got down to just the one.

    Selection : GREEN AGENDA

    #233184
    Trendsman
    Member
    • Total Posts 206

    Haydock

    15.40 E.B.F. Handicap (Class 3) (3YO only) 6f

    Saeed Suroor : 19.57%
    Michael Jarvis : 28.65%
    Jeremy Noseda : 13.64%

    Richard Whitaker : 7.04%

    Willie Haggass : 24.21%
    D. Brown : 16.67%

    Paul Howling : 00.00%

    Richard Fahey : 10.18%

    Now the elimination of the trainers that have below the 10.00% criteria

    Desert Falls

    White Shift

    Top jockeys at the course

    Frankie Dettori : 18.18%
    Philip Robinson : 18.07%
    Neil Callan : 11.51%

    Liam Jones : 5.71%

    Paul Mulrennan : 11.21%

    Dale Gibson : 4.37%

    Now the elimination of the jockey that have below the 10.00% criteria

    Wedding List

    Diggeratt

    Jockey & Trainer Combination

    Dettori & Suroor : 28.71%

    Robinson & Jarvis : 18.80%

    Callan & Noseda : 18.75%

    Mulrennan & Brown : 14.29%

    Now we loose the lowest % of the combinations

    Spiritofthewest

    who has not finished 1-2 over distance and going

    Parisian Art

    Global City

    So nicely now down to one for the selection

    Selection : CALLIGRAPHER

    #233409
    trendyguy
    Member
    • Total Posts 4

    well done TRENDSMEN

    i will post my trends for ROYAL ASCOT NEXT WEEK between your trends and mine the bookies will be runnining for cover :lol:

    all the best ANDY

    #233476
    Trendsman
    Member
    • Total Posts 206

    York

    16.35 bluesquare.com Handicap (Class 3) (3YO plus) 5F

    Top Trainers at Course

    R.J.Price : 7.69%
    Dandy Nicholls : 7.71%
    David Barron : 6.47%
    John Spearing : 21.43%
    John Balding : 4.17%
    John Quinn : 7.14%
    Andrew Balding : 7.14%

    Ann Stokell : 00.00%

    Peter Grayson : 00.00%

    Tim Easterby : 7.34%
    Richard Fahey : 9.79%
    Kevin Ryan : 6.88%
    D.Carroll : 3.77%

    Nigel Tinkler : 0.92%

    R.E.Barr : 00.00%

    The elimination process for large handicaps such as these the trends slightly change and i will eliminate the bottom four that have the lowest % at the course.

    First Order

    Stoneacre Lad

    King of Swords

    Kyzer Chief

    Top Jockey at the course

    Andrea Atzeni : 00.00%

    Paul Quinn : 2.78%

    Philip Makin : 1.79%

    J.Dean : 50.00%
    Robert Winston : 8.26%
    Frederick Tylicki : 20.00%
    William Buick : 20.00%
    David Allan : 9.45%
    Tony Hamilton : 9.35%
    Neil Callan : 6.07%
    Adrian Nicholls : 8.13%

    David Nolan : 00.00%

    Paul Hanagan : 8.20%

    Now again i will eliminate the bottom four that have the lowest %

    Kay Two

    Indian Trail

    Jaconet

    Green Park

    Jockey & Trainer Combination

    Dean & Spearing : 16.67%

    Winston & Balding : 7.69%

    Tylicki & Quinn : 25.00%

    Buick & Balding : 16.54%

    Allan & Easterby : 9.49%

    Hamilton & Fahey : 9.89%

    Callan & Ryan : 14.78%

    Nicholls & Nicholls : 10.13%

    Hanagan & Fahey : 13.21%

    Again the four lowest % will be eliminated from the above

    Haajes

    The Nifty Fox

    Steelcut

    Chartist

    Runners that have not finished 1-2 over the distance

    Solar Spirit

    Best Time over the trip and going

    Equuleus Pictor : 58.92

    Lochstar : 62.55

    Le Toreador : 64.18

    Sloop Johnb : 60.88

    Now i will eliminate the bottom two that have the lowest %

    Lochstar

    Le Toreador

    We are now left with

    Equuleus Pictor

    Sloop Johnb

    Considering that with 16 runners at present i would not put anyone off dutching these at the prices, but i will go bold here and suggest the Fahey runner is just favoured considering the form of the stable and only 1lb in the Hcp between them

    Selections : SLOOP JOHNB (Win) / EQUULEUS PICTOR (E/W)

    #233854
    Trendsman
    Member
    • Total Posts 206

    Salisbury

    Bathwick Tyres Cathedral Stakes (Listed) (Class 1) (3YO plus) 6f

    Top Trainer at the course

    Eve Johnson-Houghton : 00.00%

    Hue Morrison : 13.58%

    John Portman : 3.80%

    David Evans : 9.33%

    Mike De Kock : 00.00%

    Richard Hannon : 12.64%

    Now i will eliminate the bottom three on % outcome

    Judd Street

    Spanish Bounty

    Diane’s Choice

    Top Jockey at Course

    Steve Drowne : 9.92%

    Richard Evans : 00.00%

    Eddie Ahern : 9.01%

    Here i will eliminate the lowest %

    Carcinetto

    Jockey & Trainer Combination

    Drowne & Morrison : 13.72%
    Ahern & Hannon : 15.79%

    Quickest time over Trip

    Palace Moon : 74.39

    Ballyalla : 75.61

    Selection :

    PALACE MOON

    #234033
    Trendsman
    Member
    • Total Posts 206

    Carlisle

    15.45 Bell & Plate 24th June Handicap (Class 5) (3YO plus) 5f

    Top Trainer at the Course

    David Barron : 7.08%
    Marjorie Fife : 25.00%

    J.A.McShane : 00.00%

    James Unett : 00.00%

    Richard Fahey : 15.76%
    Tim Easterby : 7.53%

    John Weymes : 4.29%

    Alan Berry : 5.35%
    David Barker : 8.79%
    James Bethall : 5.77%
    Ruth Carr : 11.11%

    Now i will eliminate the bottom three on their %

    ARGENTINE

    WEET A SURPRISE

    JUST JOEY

    Top Jockeys at the Course

    Jan Wilson : 00.00%

    Lee Betts : 10.00%

    Frederick Tylicki : 00.00%

    David Allan : 9.94%
    Duran Fentiman : 5.41%

    S.O’Hara : 00.00%

    Tony Hamilton : 5.15%

    Alan Munro : 00.00%

    Andrew Elliott : 8.33%

    Now i will eliminate the bottom four on their %

    IMPERIAL SWORD

    THUNDER BAY

    WICKED WILMA

    BAHAMIAN BALLAD

    Jockey & Trainer Combination

    Betts : Fife : 00.00%

    Allan & Easterby : 9.46%

    Fentiman & Easterby : 4.69%

    Hamilton & Barker : 9.60%
    Elliott & Carr : 10.71%

    Now i will eliminate the bottom two on their %

    MANDALAY KING

    MAKING MUSIC

    Quickest time over distance and Course

    RYEDANE :

    61.75

    DARCY’S PRIDE :

    60.78

    ONLY A SPLASH : (

    1ST RUN AT COURSE

    )

    Selection :

    DARCY’S PRIDE

    (e/w)

    #235786
    Trendsman
    Member
    • Total Posts 206

    Lingfield

    15.15 Winthrop Handicap (Class 3) (3YO plus) 5f

    Top trainer at the course

    Peter Grayson : 5.95%

    C.R.Dore : 12.08%
    Andrew Balding : 12.91%
    Gary Moore : 12.75%
    Barry Hills : 13.96%

    Sylvester Kirk : 8.37%

    Ann Stokell : 8.57%

    John Weymes : 10.00%

    Mick Quinn : 4.87%

    Now i will eliminate the trainers which are under the 10.00% trend

    STONEACRE LAD

    ELHAMRI

    FIRST ORDER

    WHISKEY JUNCTION

    Top jockey at the course

    Richard Hughes : 15.51%
    William Buick : 13.73%
    George Baker : 14.61%
    Patrick Hills : 11.11%

    Jimmy Quinn : 7.80%

    Now i will eliminate the jockey that is under the 10.005 trend

    ALMATY EXPRESS

    Jockey & Trainer Combination

    Hughes & Dore : 00.00%

    Buick & Balding : 15.88%

    Baker & Moore : 8.75%

    Hills & Hills : 4.55%

    Now i will eliminate the combinations that is under the 10.00% trend

    CHJIMES

    SIR EDWARD LANSEER
    GOOD GORSOON

    Just the one runner remaining

    Selection :

    LOCHSTAR

    #235787
    Trendsman
    Member
    • Total Posts 206

    Windsor

    19.40 Sunley Handicap (Class 4) (3YO only) 6f

    Top trainer at the Course

    Sylvester Kirk : 5.11%

    Richard Hannon : 17.44%
    David Elsworth : 11.27%

    William Knight : 3.85%

    Brian Meehan : 9.07%

    David Evans : 10.00%

    Hue Morrison : 9.34%

    Andrew Balding : 8.29%

    Now i will eliminmate the trainer that is under the 10.00% trend

    TIMETEAM

    DESERT ICON

    KLYNCH

    FRANCIS WALSINGHAM

    RAPID WATER

    Top jockey at the Course

    Richard Highes : 17.55%
    Jimmy Fortune : 11.22%

    Stephen Donohoe : 8.14%

    Now i will eliminate the jockey that is under the 10.00% trend

    MISS CHAMANDA

    Jockey & Trainer Combination

    Hughes & Hannon : 15.62%

    Fortune & Elsworth : 9.52%

    Quickest time over trip

    MAMLAKATI : 73.39

    DEVIL YOU KNOW : 73.84

    Selection :

    MAMLAKATI (E/W) @ 8/1 William Hill

    #236059
    Trendsman
    Member
    • Total Posts 206

    Carlisle

    17.15 Edinburgh Woollen Mill Handicap (Class 4) (3YO plus) 5F

    Top trainer at the Course

    Dandy Nicholls : 12.32%
    Richard Fahey : 15.57%

    Eric Alston : 7.58%

    Tim Easterby : 7.41%

    Michael Dods : 9.15%

    John Quinn : 10.67%

    David Barker : 8.60%

    Brian Ellison : 7.14%

    Julia Camacho : 5.88%

    Andrew McCabe : 00.00%

    Now i will eliminate the trainer under the 10.00% trend

    FOXY MUSIC

    THE NIFTY FOX

    DIVINE SPIRIT

    GRUDGE

    RESTLESS GENIUS

    SIR NOD

    LOOSE CABOOSE

    Top jockey at the Course

    Adrian Nicholls : 5.95%
    Frederick Tylicki : 20.00%
    Graham Gibbons : 5.97%

    Jockey & Trainer Combination

    Nicholls & Nicholls : 10.18%
    Tylicki & Fahey : 20.72%
    Gibbons & Quinn : 8.79%

    Quickest time over distance

    OBE GOLD : 61.85

    STEELCUT : 58.45

    DIG DEEP : 60.48

    Selection :

    STEELCUT

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