One-A-Day

[Trendsman]

many people have their own methods of doing trends for races, i feel i have an unique approach which might be disliked or not, but i will put them up here and break them down how i have come to my final conclusion on my selection process.

I will choose one race a day of my choice and put it up on here and see how we go there forth.

[Trendsman]

Hamilton

Prestige Scotland Handicap (Qualifier) (Class 5) (4YO plus) 1m 65y[/color:1m9v6tag]

Top Trainer at the Course

S.Parr : 15.38%
A.G.Foster : 0.00%[/color:1m9v6tag]
A.Swinbank :11.97%
E Alston : 11.46%
A McWilliams : 4.76%[/color:1m9v6tag]
B.P.J.Baugh : 5.88%[/color:1m9v6tag]
I Semple : 11.63%
P.Midgley : 7.14%[/color:1m9v6tag]

Now so you know what i am doing here, everything below a 10.00% strike rate becomes eliminated.So the trainers horse’s that go are below.

Bourse

Forzarzi

Tanforan

Singora Lady

Top Jocks at Course

P Mulrennan : 7.73%[/color:1m9v6tag]
T.Eaves : 11.35%
D Allan : 9.84%[/color:1m9v6tag]
P Donaghy : 8.06%[/color:1m9v6tag]
D Gibson : 6.93%[/color:1m9v6tag]

Same again i will eliminate the jocks that have below 10.00% strike rate at the track..results below.

This One’s For Eddy

Pianoforte

Bold Indian

Bright Falcon

This has made this selection process easier with only the one runner left in the field.

Trainer and Jock Combination

20.83% / +6.50[/color:1m9v6tag]

Selection

: MOUNTAIN CAT[/color:1m9v6tag]

[Trendsman]

Good Start 6/4F Winner

[Trendsman]

Epsom

14.45 Investec Coronation Cup (Group 1) (Class 1) (4YO plus)[/color:zvalo5op]

Top trainer at Course

Sir Michael Stoute : 19.44%
Andrew Balding : 11.84%
John Gosden : 16.67%
Saeed Bin Suroor : 19.35%
Aiden O’Brien : 10.77%
Mick Channon : 9.19%[/color:zvalo5op]
Ray Beckett : 21.43%

Again i will stick to the elimination of trainers that have below 10.00% at the course.

Youmzain

Top Jockeys at the Course

Ryan Moore : 18.75%
William Buick : 25.00%
Jimmy Fortune : 9.88%[/color:zvalo5op]
Frankie Dettori : 23.31%
Johnny Murtagh : 17.88%
Seb Sanders : 13.13%

Again i will eliminate the jockey that has under 10.00% strike rate at the course.

Duncan

Jockey & Trainer Combination

Ryan Moore & Sir Michael Stoute : 23.80%
William Buick & Andrew Balding : 16.28%[/color:zvalo5op]
Frankie Dettori & Saeed Bin Suroor : 27.30%
Richard Mullen & John Gosden : 12.50%[/color:zvalo5op]
Johnny Murtagh & Aiden O’Brien : 26.48%
Seb Sanders & Ray Beckett : 100.00%

Here we will now loose the bottom two that have the lowest combination and eliminate them accordingly

Buccellati

Expresso Star

Placed 1-2 on the Ground

Ask
Eastern Anthem
Look Here

Fastest Time over Trip and Ground

Ask : 154.47
Eastern Anthem : 151.84 (Dubai) 157.82 (UK)
Look Here : 156.88

Selection

: ASK[/color:zvalo5op]

Eastern Anthem has been eliminated due to the run at Nad Al Sheba and his run on UK soil is much slower than the remaining three.

[Trendsman]

Newcastle

21.20 Marie Curie Handicap (Class 5) (3YO only)[/color:73fnkbl4]

Top Trainer At Course

Paul Midgley : 9.43%[/color:73fnkbl4]
Ollie Pears : 16.67%
Mel Brittain : 4.05%[/color:73fnkbl4]
I.W.Mcinnes : 00.00%[/color:73fnkbl4]
Karl Burke : 10.97%
Geoff Oldroyd : 15.00%

Now i will eliminate trainers that have below 10.00% strike rate.

Dispol Kylie

Dispol Grand

Rossett Rose

Red Cell

Top Jockeys At The Course

Tony Hamilton : 5.20%[/color:73fnkbl4]
Martin Lane : 50.00%
Natalia Gemelova : 4.00%[/color:73fnkbl4]

Now i will eliminate the Jockeys that have under 10.00% at the course

Noodles Blue Boy

Singapore Girl

Again we have managed to get to the conclusion early

Jockey & Trainer Combination

21.88% / +20.35[/color:73fnkbl4]

Selection

: IACHIMO[/color:73fnkbl4]

[tbracing]

Good start Trendsman

[Trendsman]

Attempting a National Hunt race today.

Worcester

Neu Servo Handicap Chase (Class 5) (5YO plus)

Top Trainer at Course

Mark Scudamore : 13.79%
Tim Vaughan : 12.50%
Mrs K Waldron : 00.00%
S.C.Burrough : 13.04%
M.Sheppard : 9.00%
F.Jordon : 00.00%

Now i will eliminate the trainers that have below 10.00%.

Milton Des Bieffes

Sarah’s Gift

Millenium Mag

Top Jockeys At Course

Tom Scudamore : 13.04%
Richard Johnson : 18.16%
Paddy Brennan : 10.89%

All have survived the 10.00% elimination.

Jockey & Trainer Combination

Scudamore & Scudamore : 8.78%
Johnson & Vaughan : 25.15%
Brennan & Burrough : 00.00%

Now the bottom combination will be eliminated

Digital Media

Placed 1-2 on Ground

Kayceecee

Selection

:

KAYCEECEE

[Trendsman]

Folkestone

14.15 Eastwell Manor Handicap (Class 6) (4YO plus) 5F

Top Trainers at Course

Brendan Powell : 8.72%

George Baker : 25.00%

Milton Bradley : 6.67%
John Jenkins : 6.20%
Philip McEntee : 8.57%
Stef Liddiard : 6.67%
Ron Hodges : 9.21%

J.G.M O’Shea : 12.50%

R Bastiman : 20.00%

Peter Grayson : 25.00%

Andrew Chamberlain : 00.00%

Here i will eliminate all trainers that have under a 10.00% strike rate.

Pick Up Sticks
Triple Dream
Sandy Par
Bookiesindex Boy
Thoughtsofstardom
Green Lagonda
Miss Firefly
Mr Loire

Top Jockey at the Course

Matthew Davies : 00.00%
Catherine Gannon : 00.00%
Jack Mitchell : 00.00%

Liam Jones : 10.60%

P Mathers : 16.67%

J.F.McDonald : 2.99%

Now i will eliminate all jockeys that have got under a 10.005 strike rate at the course.

Music Box Express
Walragnek
Valient Romeo

Jockey & Trainer Combination

Jones & Grayson : 11.76%
Mathers & Grayson : 2.68%
J.F.McDonald & Grayson : 00.00%

Now i will eliminate the lowest combination.

Lady Hopeful

Best Time over trip and going

MAGIC GLADE : 59.75
RIGHTCAR LEWIS : 60.10

Selection : MAGIC GLADE (E/W)

[Trendsman]

Redcar

15.35 Boddingtons Redcar Straight-mile Championship Handicap (qualifier) (Class 3) (3YO plus)

Top Trainer At Course

Richard Fahey : 8.68%

F.P.Murtagh : 00.00%

Bryan Smart : 13.90%

David Barker : 4.83%

Eric Alston : 10.00%

Tim Easterby : 7.23%

Dandy Nicholls : 8.30%

Mark Johnston : 15.23%

Now i will eliminate the one’s that are below the 10.00% trend

Dream Lodge

Wovoka

Observatory Star

Minority Report

Top Jockey At The Course

Tom Eaves : 7.49%

Neil Callan : 16.75%
Nickey Mackay : 15.69%

Now i will eliminate the lowest jockey who has under the 10.00% trend

Ansell’s Pride

Jockey & Trainer Combination

Callan & Alston : 00.00%

Mackay & Johnston : 10.00%

Now i will eliminate the lowest Combination

Summer Gold

I have now made things easier and now got down to just the one.

Selection : GREEN AGENDA

[Trendsman]

Haydock

15.40 E.B.F. Handicap (Class 3) (3YO only) 6f

Saeed Suroor : 19.57%
Michael Jarvis : 28.65%
Jeremy Noseda : 13.64%

Richard Whitaker : 7.04%

Willie Haggass : 24.21%
D. Brown : 16.67%

Paul Howling : 00.00%

Richard Fahey : 10.18%

Now the elimination of the trainers that have below the 10.00% criteria

Desert Falls

White Shift

Top jockeys at the course

Frankie Dettori : 18.18%
Philip Robinson : 18.07%
Neil Callan : 11.51%

Liam Jones : 5.71%

Paul Mulrennan : 11.21%

Dale Gibson : 4.37%

Now the elimination of the jockey that have below the 10.00% criteria

Wedding List

Diggeratt

Jockey & Trainer Combination

Dettori & Suroor : 28.71%

Robinson & Jarvis : 18.80%

Callan & Noseda : 18.75%

Mulrennan & Brown : 14.29%

Now we loose the lowest % of the combinations

Spiritofthewest

who has not finished 1-2 over distance and going

Parisian Art

Global City

So nicely now down to one for the selection

Selection : CALLIGRAPHER

[trendyguy]

well done TRENDSMEN

i will post my trends for ROYAL ASCOT NEXT WEEK between your trends and mine the bookies will be runnining for cover

all the best ANDY

[Trendsman]

York

16.35 bluesquare.com Handicap (Class 3) (3YO plus) 5F

Top Trainers at Course

R.J.Price : 7.69%
Dandy Nicholls : 7.71%
David Barron : 6.47%
John Spearing : 21.43%
John Balding : 4.17%
John Quinn : 7.14%
Andrew Balding : 7.14%

Ann Stokell : 00.00%

Peter Grayson : 00.00%

Tim Easterby : 7.34%
Richard Fahey : 9.79%
Kevin Ryan : 6.88%
D.Carroll : 3.77%

Nigel Tinkler : 0.92%

R.E.Barr : 00.00%

The elimination process for large handicaps such as these the trends slightly change and i will eliminate the bottom four that have the lowest % at the course.

First Order

Stoneacre Lad

King of Swords

Kyzer Chief

Top Jockey at the course

Andrea Atzeni : 00.00%

Paul Quinn : 2.78%

Philip Makin : 1.79%

J.Dean : 50.00%
Robert Winston : 8.26%
Frederick Tylicki : 20.00%
William Buick : 20.00%
David Allan : 9.45%
Tony Hamilton : 9.35%
Neil Callan : 6.07%
Adrian Nicholls : 8.13%

David Nolan : 00.00%

Paul Hanagan : 8.20%

Now again i will eliminate the bottom four that have the lowest %

Kay Two

Indian Trail

Jaconet

Green Park

Jockey & Trainer Combination

Dean & Spearing : 16.67%

Winston & Balding : 7.69%

Tylicki & Quinn : 25.00%

Buick & Balding : 16.54%

Allan & Easterby : 9.49%

Hamilton & Fahey : 9.89%

Callan & Ryan : 14.78%

Nicholls & Nicholls : 10.13%

Hanagan & Fahey : 13.21%

Again the four lowest % will be eliminated from the above

Haajes

The Nifty Fox

Steelcut

Chartist

Runners that have not finished 1-2 over the distance

Solar Spirit

Best Time over the trip and going

Equuleus Pictor : 58.92

Lochstar : 62.55

Le Toreador : 64.18

Sloop Johnb : 60.88

Now i will eliminate the bottom two that have the lowest %

Lochstar

Le Toreador

We are now left with

Equuleus Pictor

Sloop Johnb

Considering that with 16 runners at present i would not put anyone off dutching these at the prices, but i will go bold here and suggest the Fahey runner is just favoured considering the form of the stable and only 1lb in the Hcp between them

Selections : SLOOP JOHNB (Win) / EQUULEUS PICTOR (E/W)

[Trendsman]

Salisbury

Bathwick Tyres Cathedral Stakes (Listed) (Class 1) (3YO plus) 6f

Top Trainer at the course

Eve Johnson-Houghton : 00.00%

Hue Morrison : 13.58%

John Portman : 3.80%

David Evans : 9.33%

Mike De Kock : 00.00%

Richard Hannon : 12.64%

Now i will eliminate the bottom three on % outcome

Judd Street

Spanish Bounty

Diane’s Choice

Top Jockey at Course

Steve Drowne : 9.92%

Richard Evans : 00.00%

Eddie Ahern : 9.01%

Here i will eliminate the lowest %

Carcinetto

Jockey & Trainer Combination

Drowne & Morrison : 13.72%
Ahern & Hannon : 15.79%

Quickest time over Trip

Palace Moon : 74.39

Ballyalla : 75.61

Selection :

PALACE MOON

[Trendsman]

Carlisle

15.45 Bell & Plate 24th June Handicap (Class 5) (3YO plus) 5f

Top Trainer at the Course

David Barron : 7.08%
Marjorie Fife : 25.00%

J.A.McShane : 00.00%

James Unett : 00.00%

Richard Fahey : 15.76%
Tim Easterby : 7.53%

John Weymes : 4.29%

Alan Berry : 5.35%
David Barker : 8.79%
James Bethall : 5.77%
Ruth Carr : 11.11%

Now i will eliminate the bottom three on their %

ARGENTINE

WEET A SURPRISE

JUST JOEY

Top Jockeys at the Course

Jan Wilson : 00.00%

Lee Betts : 10.00%

Frederick Tylicki : 00.00%

David Allan : 9.94%
Duran Fentiman : 5.41%

S.O’Hara : 00.00%

Tony Hamilton : 5.15%

Alan Munro : 00.00%

Andrew Elliott : 8.33%

Now i will eliminate the bottom four on their %

IMPERIAL SWORD

THUNDER BAY

WICKED WILMA

BAHAMIAN BALLAD

Jockey & Trainer Combination

Betts : Fife : 00.00%

Allan & Easterby : 9.46%

Fentiman & Easterby : 4.69%

Hamilton & Barker : 9.60%
Elliott & Carr : 10.71%

Now i will eliminate the bottom two on their %

MANDALAY KING

MAKING MUSIC

Quickest time over distance and Course

RYEDANE :

61.75

DARCY’S PRIDE :

60.78

ONLY A SPLASH : (

1ST RUN AT COURSE

)

Selection :

DARCY’S PRIDE

(e/w)

[Trendsman]

Lingfield

15.15 Winthrop Handicap (Class 3) (3YO plus) 5f

Top trainer at the course

Peter Grayson : 5.95%

C.R.Dore : 12.08%
Andrew Balding : 12.91%
Gary Moore : 12.75%
Barry Hills : 13.96%

Sylvester Kirk : 8.37%

Ann Stokell : 8.57%

John Weymes : 10.00%

Mick Quinn : 4.87%

Now i will eliminate the trainers which are under the 10.00% trend

STONEACRE LAD

ELHAMRI

FIRST ORDER

WHISKEY JUNCTION

Top jockey at the course

Richard Hughes : 15.51%
William Buick : 13.73%
George Baker : 14.61%
Patrick Hills : 11.11%

Jimmy Quinn : 7.80%

Now i will eliminate the jockey that is under the 10.005 trend

ALMATY EXPRESS

Jockey & Trainer Combination

Hughes & Dore : 00.00%

Buick & Balding : 15.88%

Baker & Moore : 8.75%

Hills & Hills : 4.55%

Now i will eliminate the combinations that is under the 10.00% trend

CHJIMES

SIR EDWARD LANSEER
GOOD GORSOON

Just the one runner remaining

Selection :

LOCHSTAR

[Trendsman]

Windsor

19.40 Sunley Handicap (Class 4) (3YO only) 6f

Top trainer at the Course

Sylvester Kirk : 5.11%

Richard Hannon : 17.44%
David Elsworth : 11.27%

William Knight : 3.85%

Brian Meehan : 9.07%

David Evans : 10.00%

Hue Morrison : 9.34%

Andrew Balding : 8.29%

Now i will eliminmate the trainer that is under the 10.00% trend

TIMETEAM

DESERT ICON

KLYNCH

FRANCIS WALSINGHAM

RAPID WATER

Top jockey at the Course

Richard Highes : 17.55%
Jimmy Fortune : 11.22%

Stephen Donohoe : 8.14%

Now i will eliminate the jockey that is under the 10.00% trend

MISS CHAMANDA

Jockey & Trainer Combination

Hughes & Hannon : 15.62%

Fortune & Elsworth : 9.52%

Quickest time over trip

MAMLAKATI : 73.39

DEVIL YOU KNOW : 73.84

Selection :

MAMLAKATI (E/W) @ 8/1 William Hill

[Trendsman]

Carlisle

17.15 Edinburgh Woollen Mill Handicap (Class 4) (3YO plus) 5F

Top trainer at the Course

Dandy Nicholls : 12.32%
Richard Fahey : 15.57%

Eric Alston : 7.58%

Tim Easterby : 7.41%

Michael Dods : 9.15%

John Quinn : 10.67%

David Barker : 8.60%

Brian Ellison : 7.14%

Julia Camacho : 5.88%

Andrew McCabe : 00.00%

Now i will eliminate the trainer under the 10.00% trend

FOXY MUSIC

THE NIFTY FOX

DIVINE SPIRIT

GRUDGE

RESTLESS GENIUS

SIR NOD

LOOSE CABOOSE

Top jockey at the Course

Adrian Nicholls : 5.95%
Frederick Tylicki : 20.00%
Graham Gibbons : 5.97%

Jockey & Trainer Combination

Nicholls & Nicholls : 10.18%
Tylicki & Fahey : 20.72%
Gibbons & Quinn : 8.79%

Quickest time over distance

OBE GOLD : 61.85

STEELCUT : 58.45

DIG DEEP : 60.48

Selection :

STEELCUT

[Author]

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