Home › Forums › Big Races – Discussion › Oaks 2024
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John_Anthony.
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- May 29, 2024 at 10:34 #1695929
AOB should have a fair idea how his two compare with Ezeliya from his horse Everlasting who was a length behind Ezeliya.
May 29, 2024 at 11:11 #1695938“Is that final sentence got anything to do with the quality of the fields”?
—————————————————————————No Stilvi, the second sentence is all about the quality of field.
“There are several in both races who could yet improve a good deal and make top class horses”.
The final sentence: “At least the Flat isn’t being dominated by just one trainer”… Is about how interesting / less boring the racing is, with so many trainers winning the top races.…I am negative quite a lot on here, just not negative all the time.
If you look, there are also often positives to be taken about the negatives and negatives to be taken about the positives.And…
Notable Speech and Rosallion are top class British trained 3 year old colts.
Fallen Angel has risen again, a top class 3 year old filly, right up with the standard of most Irish Guineas winners, with Opera Singer having potential to be even better than her once fully fit.City Of Troy may yet come back to his brilliant 2 year old form, especially if given conditions to suit.
Los Angeles might be a top quality mile and a half + horse. Ditto Ancient Wisdom given soft conditions… And on a sounder surface Ambiente Friendly has a chance of winning a Derby for the small (well, tall and thin) man… And Macduff might yet “lead on” the line.Ylang Ylang could improve significantly with the test of stamina her pedigree and run style suggest. Ezeliya could be anything. Rubbies Are Red could yet sparkle. Beckett could yet sprinkle some Fairy dust. We could have a Treasure of a royal winner. You want Satire I can give you it Secretly… Well, You Got To Me, Stilvi.
Value Is EverythingMay 29, 2024 at 11:21 #16959417 of the 12 runners have had 4 or less runs
Could be anything lurking
May 29, 2024 at 11:27 #1695942I mean if your suggesting that its better to have a far lesser quality field but a more diverse training rank, than a vastly superior quality field and less diverse trainer rank id say your in the wrong game
Its horse racing.
Aslong as the trainer runs them against each other (which he categorially does) then its irrelevant where they come from, there outsiders or lesser fancied ones often beat there #1s
You can pretend that some of these have room for improvement if you like, the highest rated in the field being the fav at 112 then absolute daylight to the rest, is depressing for an oaks
Similarly for the derby we have a tailed off fav lto over a distance half a mile shorter, thats the state its in
May 29, 2024 at 11:28 #1695943Ah come on now FF, you dont believe that, theres nothing lurking in this field, 3 runs is plenty to have an idea about whats there, 4 runs is handicap material
May 29, 2024 at 11:59 #1695945I don’t get the negativity about the weekend classics myself. To me it is more intriguing as a betting medium (and thus reading people’s wide ranging views), than watching a race with a 4-6 shot in it and waiting for the inevitable win. Yes the standard of horses might be lower ratings wise but that doesn’t make it any less watchable. And you never know a very good horse may emerge in either. That’s my view anyway.
May 29, 2024 at 12:07 #1695946AOB should have a fair idea how his two compare with Ezeliya from his horse Everlasting who was a length behind Ezeliya.
Over 1m2 on her seasonal reappearance while Everlasting was a race ahead fitness-wise.
Yes he technically has a line on her, but he is unlikely to have any idea of Ezeliya’s fitness (9/1 that day suggests they weren’t expecting a huge run) nevermind her likely progressive for a step up in trip.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!May 29, 2024 at 12:44 #1695947I’m in total agreement with Mike regarding the watchability of this weekend’s classics. (there’s a first time for everything!
And GT, the line from Macbeth is ‘Lay on, Macduff’ not ‘lead on’!(but obviously that would spoil your neat pun!)
May 29, 2024 at 13:14 #1695952My 100% book for the Oaks on Soft ground:
36% 7/4 Ylang Ylang
23% 100/30 Ezeliya
11% 8/1 Forest Fairy
10.5% 17/2 Rubies Are Red
4.25% 22/1 Secret Satire
4.25% 22/1 Treasure
4.25% 22/1 You Got To Me
3% 33/1 Dance Sequence
1.5% 66/1 Caught You Looking
1.25% 80/1 Making Dreams
0.75% 132/1 Seaward
0.25% 400/1 War ChimesValue Is EverythingMay 29, 2024 at 13:22 #1695953Oscar,
I believe the Shakespere “lay on Macduff” has been stolen for the phrase “lead on Macduff”. My grandfather used to use it a lot when we were going anywhere. Meaning lead on and I will follow.Value Is EverythingMay 29, 2024 at 13:23 #1695954Anyone else think Moore will choose Rubies Are Red?
May 29, 2024 at 13:38 #1695955No doubt your grandfather was a fine man, GT, but he was obviously not a Shakespearian scholar.
‘Lay on’ was an invitation by Macbeth to strike a blow not a request to act as a travel guide…May 29, 2024 at 13:40 #1695956Moore rides Ylang Ylang, Wayne Lordan on Rubies Are Red.
May 29, 2024 at 14:04 #1695957Thanks, I just heard that too.
Shame. I fancy RAR.
May 29, 2024 at 15:16 #1695961In a radical change of direction I’ll mention the classics rather than Shakespeare.

Any Musidora winner must have some sort of chance, and the fact that Beckett was bullish about how much a Sea The Stars filly would have come on for her last run, means I’ve had a couple of each ways on Secret Satire and Seaward.
(doubled both with Voyage and Bellum Justum in the Derby)May 29, 2024 at 15:24 #1695963Sorry to be a negative nelly but I think this is a really bad race outside the fav. They could be anything but none of them looked better than ordinary trial winners and there was a fag paper between most of them in the trials but the market doesn’t really reflect that so I’ll have a go on a few of the rags because I don’t think there’s anything between them and the ones behind the fav.
May 29, 2024 at 15:38 #1695964“Shame. I fancy RAR.”
Ryan Moore was on the ‘wrong one’ in 2018 and 2021 when a stablemate won so you never know.
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