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August 12th, 15th, 19th, 25th and 31st, Sept 2nd, 8th, 13th, 26th and 28th (all placed) and the aforementioned Light Shift on Sept 19th are the exceptions, Darren.
Actually to be fair though, I can’t see a single runner since 1995 who didn’t run after July. Look at that whichever way you want.
Well, You’ll Be Mine absolutely smashed at Leopardstown and as such is removed from my list since she finished outside the top 4 in anything but a Classic as a 3yo.
Ceilidh House
Hymnsheet
Namaskar
Pipette
Principal Role
Revered
Termagant
Timepiecemy current list.
To save me looking Z any of these Henry Cecil trained??
2 I believe. Timepiece and Principal Role
Z, i;m sure it was you who brought Kithonia to my attention?
You wonder why Ballydoyle have such a range of Gallops when they send their Horses so backward to the racecourse. Devoted To you run last weekend looks better the more and more i think about it.
When is that trial that Lush Lashes won in England on….I love that race
Musidora Stakes, May 13th I think. Have booked tickets to that and the Dante.
HTH – yup, was keen on Kithonia all winter but didn’t realise her RPR was so low. She’s been given a RPR of 72 for that, 7 below what the trend stipulates. 31 runners in the Oaks since 1995 didn’t hit 79 as a 2yo; just 1 was placed (Crown Of Light 3rd for Stoute in 1997, rated 62 as a 2yo).
92, 89, 106, 104, 79, 84, 108, 105, 106, 92, unraced, 114, 89, 81 and 89 were the 2yo ratings of the winners. O’Brien responsible for the highest 2 and the 104 (Alexandrova 114, Imagine 108, Shahtoush 104) and Cecil responsible for the 106 (Reams of Verse). The other 2 3-figure ratings were for Casual Look for Andrew Balding (106) and Kazzia for Bin Suroor on 105.
Interestingly, very highly rated 2yos, ie. above 108, actually do very poorly in the Oaks. With the exception of Alexandrova, the last 12 all finished unplaced (6/4F, 3/1, 10/3, 9/4F and 3/1 the highest profile losers). Cecil trained 2 of them and O’Brien 4. This is data I’ve only just seen. This actually rules out Termagant, not that I was planning on backing her anyway.
Ceilidh House (Beckett) 80
Hymnsheet (Stoute) 81
Namaskar (Gosden) 80
Pipette (A Balding) 97
Principal Role (Cecil) 80
Revered (Stoute) 80
Timepiece (Cecil) 101Stoute’s only actually won the Oaks twice, in 78 and 87. He’s had placed horses on several occasions but between 2002 and 2009 only 1 placed horse – Short Skirt in 3rd (2 2nds and 2 3rds 1995-2001). In short, he’s not a trainer I want to be following for the Oaks.
Just going through the form of some of these, trying to shed some light on who the good ones are.
Namaskar’s form is very ordinary, has several form lines that show her to be worse than a couple of others on my list. Likewise, Ceilidh House’s form isn’t great.
Pipette has some wonderful formlines and as such I’ve gobbled up the 140s, 180s and 200s available. Owned and bred by George Strawbridge, she’s beautifully bred being a full-sister to a 109 rated Group 2 runner-up and Group 1 3rd named Day Or Night. She’s by Pivotal, sire of last year’s heroine, Sariska. She was beaten on her 2nd and final start as a 2yo but I’m not worried about that. She was running over 7f in a Listed event, a race far too sharp for her. In another half-furlong she’d have won. She’s clearly well thought-of at home (‘She is a beautifully bred filly and that wasn’t totally unexpected. She’s a very good prospect.- Ian Balding, trainer’s father) and the horse who won the Listed race, Electric Feel, finished 4L 2nd to Tabassum in a Group 3.
The runner-up’s not run since and doesn’t have any flashy formlines but the front 3 came 8L clear ahead of the 4th. The 4th was Fontley, beaten 3 1/2L by Kithonia on their debuts. Even the 12th, Tislimeen (beaten 28 lengths) finished a 2 3/4L 5th to Kithonia on their debuts. Pipette even has a 1000 Guineas entry. Very promising stuff.
Principal Role’s obviously no sort of price and there’s very little form on offer but the 3rd in her maiden, Meeznah (beaten 3/4L), was beaten only 2 1/2L on her debut by Tabassum. Given the way she reared up and won, her victory was a lot better than the winning margin. She has 2 black-type half-brothers but they were nothing but 95-odd rated handicappers in this country and picked up their blacktype in marathon US Graded events. Actually worries me slightly that the dam hasn’t produced anything better given she has 8 foals.
Timepiece is clearly well-regarded by Cecil, the Assistant trainer, Teddy Grimthorpe and Tom Queally have all given lengthy comments about her on the RP database. On breeding she could be very good, although there will obviously be stamina doubts until the day given her half-sister is Passage Of Time. She also has Father Time as a half-brother for the optimists among you. Her sire is Zamindar, the father of the colossal Zarkava, although stamina doubts exist with him too. Of course, Zarkava is a 12f Group 1 winner and Crossharbour has performed very well over the trip too, winning a Group 2 and being beaten only 1 1/4L by Spanish Moon. However, multi-Group 1 winning miler Darjina and G2 winner Modern Look are also sired by him.
Through a formline with the 3rd in her Listed race, Clarietta, she’s at least the equal of Pollenator, Hibaayeb and Lady Darshaan and if she stays, she should have a phenomenal chance. I just can’t really bring myself to back her at 16s at this stage.
Revered’s an interesting runner. She won a maiden which the likes of Sariska and Infallible won over the past couple of seasons, but she only won by 1/2L and the runner-up doesn’t have an Oaks entry. She’s also a full-sister to Visit, the horse without a trip. None of the horses behind her have an Oaks entry and the form they showed before/after the race wasn’t/isn’t that good. I’d say she has an interesting future over a mile.
Hymnsheet’s a full-sister to the 10f Group 1 winner Chorist, trained by Willie Haggas. Straight off the bat it’s a worry that she didn’t get 12f. A formline through Miss Antonia/Zahoo puts her as Namaskar’s equal. I actually much prefer the look of the 3rd from her maiden, Radio Wave. She doesn’t meet the RPR76 criteria by 3 points but she had horrendous luck in-running. Her half-brother Tuning Fork was 2nd in the Dante on his 2nd start and although he only ever won 1 race, his racecourse debut, it came over 11f over soft ground and he won going away and with a better source of stamina coming from the sire Dalakhani, Radio Wave looks promising, especially given she was backed from 20s into 11s on her one and only start. Some shrewdies have had some on already at 110s and are looking to get a couple of quid matched at 130s. I think I’ll join on them on at 110.
Okay Z
After your advice and my own investigation I am on…Timepiece 17
Revered 85
Hymnsheet 120
Pipette 130I just hope one or two of them turn up
P.S Pipette is entered at Kempton on Saturday.I hope it runs cos I am planning on going!!
Was rather impressed with Pipette. Getting outpaced and stayed on nicely. Either that or she’s very lazy. Fortune seemed to think highly of her.
Wedding March has been my only Classic bet so far, ran a good race in the Marcel Boussac last year and been some very strong indications she has improved a ton from what she was last year. Best price is 33/1 currently.
Hi Zarkava ,What you think of Ceilidh House? I just watched her on the reruns and thought she was very interesting!
Andy, just feel her price isn’t that great in comparison to what others have done/her form.
My goodness, isn’t breeding interesting.
The last 13 Oaks winners all had a sibling either with blacktype or a RPR of 100+. The two before those 13 were the first and second foals from their respective dams. I’m willing to commit to the following: any 4th foal or later should have a blacktype/RPR100+ sibling.
Apply that to my current shortlist of;
Ceilidh House (Beckett) – gone, 0 from 4
Hymnsheet (Stoute) – 2 from 7
Namaskar (Gosden) – 0 from 1
Pipette (A Balding) – 1 from 6
Principal Role (Cecil) – 2 from 7
Revered (Stoute) – 2 from 2
Timepiece (Cecil) – 2 from 5So Ceilidh House can now be confidently overlooked on the breeding side of things.
I too was impressed with Pipette Z. She seemed to go better the further she went and she looked likely to improve both in the paddock and on course.
She will definitely get ten furlongs and hopefully will get twelve furlongs too!!
My main worry Oaks wise is the ground she does look like she wants a bit of give in the ground and you dont get that many soft ground Oaks!!When commentators say "he-she looked very impressive visually" it has no significance unless the breeding justifies respecting the horse?
Remember When of Ballydoyle is entered up in the Irish Champion Stakes….the 3yr old filly.
Take from that as you like…but i already have her down as a top class mare in my pedigree thread in the Bloodstock section
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