- This topic has 15 replies, 8 voices, and was last updated 18 years ago by
.
- Posts
Is it just me or does Numides class 4 race tomorrow look weaker than the debut race he has just won. Is it just a test to see if he can carry weight or something, last week he was entered in a grade 2 (class 1), this week he’s running in a really weak looking class 4 (having already won what looked a pretty decent class 4), off top weight admittedly but it doesnt look to be a challenge.
I really like the prospect of this horse but I have a feeling that he may not be doing much at home, or that things may not be going to plan, it will be interesting to see just how much he wins by tomorrow. I think forecast 1-3 price is more an assessment of the opposition than him.
There is still no moves for him on oddschecker I notice for the supreme novice.
Bulwark,
Its all relative, the opposition looks weaker but the horse itself faces a sterner more searching test than in the last run. A few questions should be answered.
A few years ago I met a punter at Galway who told me that "horses need to get 2m2 to get home up this hill over 2m" I told him that I thought his comments were hogwash. Patently the horse only needs the stamina to get 2m but he needs the strength to get up a hill doing it. Many people assume the same type of thing with Cheltenham due to the stiff finish, visually some horses appear not to get the trip which only confirms the belief.The run today is an attempt to bring Numide on, The trip is a furlong further than he will face should he attempt to contest the Supreme Novices and he will today carry 5lb more. The undulating track has some similarity in type, but not severity, to Cheltenham.
A good placement by the trainer to bring an inexperienced horse on. True enough the race will not tell how good the horse is, but the trainers put him in there, at Cheltenham, hasn’t he?
You can forget him for Cheltenham if he wins today in a canter, as he should if he’s to be considered a serious Supreme prospect. To bring the horse on he needs a stiff test. He should be told to make all at his own pace and the jockey should really push on and on and be driven the whole way, irrespective of what the other competitors are doing.
At the end of the race we will have a horse that is ready for Cheltenham but only the trainer will know how good he is.
I have had a cheeky e/w bet on Jeu Desprit at 33/1 in this race. Think he looks way overpriced. I am playing for a place as opposed the win though. Would be a major shock if the fav was beaten today.
Zoso,
On the never ending ‘value’ thread, you have stated that this bet pays 8.25/1 for a place.
I’d be most interested to know which bookmaker pays 1/4 odds a place in novice hurdles, as I suspect would many other punters.
AP
Zoso,
On the never ending ‘value’ thread, you have stated that this bet pays 8.25/1 for a place.
I’d be most interested to know which bookmaker pays 1/4 odds a place in novice hurdles, as I suspect would many other punters.
AP
Apologies AP, I made a mistake in my over excited state, it is of course 1/5 the odds with all bookmakers. No idea why I worked it out to 1/4 the odds a place on the thread.
I haven’t seen the race but 64,350gns seems cheap for a Group winning 2YO who had good form on the flat (albeit with a somewhat regressive profile towards the end). Only cost a fifth of what The Grey Berry cost. Time will tell obviously.
You see zozo, it can be nice to look for value at times, a nice little bet that…
Numide won easily today, but wasnt even remotely tested, jockey didnt even have to ride him for the 4 length win, I think looking at him today there is no reason whatsoever why he couldnt have done exactly the same in a reasonable class 3 and it would still have given him a confiedence boost. Its maybe because I am more of a flat person that I like to see a horse go through the gears when prepping for better things as to me as canters can be done at home.
10-1 for the supreme novice that some bookies are quoting is ridiculous. I dont know what price he will be for his next race at kempton but you would think, that if there is any competition at kempton that he’d be better priced to double up on that race with the supreme novice price after that result is settled than any 10-1 at the minute.
Actually on a Supreme Novice note, Captain Cee Bee, one of the three JP Mcmanus horses to spark a massive gamble in recent weeks is entered in a grade 2 on sunday at punchestown.
Other two gambles have looked fully justified, with Aigle D’or winning what looked like a pretty good race on saturday and holding off hold’em who himself looks a nice horse in his own right, and subsequently cut to 6-1 outright favorite for the ballymore. Then binocular who has shown probably the best change of gear of all the juvenile novices this year and has been made 8-1 third fav for the triumph since then.
Now Captain Cee Bee, who looks smart on his last piece hurdle form developed a gamble from largely 33s in to mostly 12s and 14s, and that was at the time when khyber kim already had loads of money on board.
Small stable, decent looking horse, gets bought by big owner, develops a massive gamble with no entries on the cards then suddenly shows up in a grade 2, if he wins on sunday, even by a neck, he’s going to be outright fav for the supreme novice (especially after khyber kims defeat last week) as the bookies are going to go into damage limitation mode.
May even get a bit more on myself as he was originally only a back for if khyber went wrong (which may well be the case).Awreet
No chance in the Supreme nov after that performance in my view. I dont think he should even take part. I would rather see him in the RSA or the BRIT.
If he does take part he will lose then be stepped up in trip at Aintree for either the Mersy or the Sefton.
This probably explains why there has been no money for it.
The form of the race isn’t all that bad, considering Six Day War’s debut behind Zanir, and Numide has beaten him with considerable ease whilst conceding 21lb (which is a lot, even considering the age of the runner-up).
With the weight concession in mind, plus the fact that better ground and a strong pace are likely to suit (he can always go from the front of course) and that his jumping could be improved upon a touch, I thought he was hellishly impressive.
I’d have no qualms about taking in the Supreme Novices’ with him.
What do you make of 10s and 12s though LGR, i think at the minute it looks a false price, I agree 100% with what your saying, hes far better than that and won it jogging but that looked like a 120ish+ performance (although the plus looks sizable).
What worries me is that moore’s stable love to gamble on their horses, generally specialise with handicappers and dont look to have touched him in the betting for supreme novice, yet they seem to be running him like they are trying to keep him well handicapped, he easily could have won by ten lengths today or further. If thats the case its a waste of a bloody good horse who looks to be on good terms with himself.
Its the financial support for captain cee bee that is making me want to have a go on him as he is a general 12s, and that is purely market support, which all looked to have come from connections. Looking at his field for sunday I think he’ll be very much odds on on sunday and probably fives for the supreme novice after so I think 12s isnt a bad looking bet at the minute.
I think 12/1 is perhaps a little short, but today’s performance was incredibly taking and conditions at Cheltenham, in a race like the Supreme, are only going to bring about improvement (stronger pace and better ground). I would be far more tempted by this route than the Ballymore, even though I think he’s a World Hurdle horse in the making.
As for the seeming lack of support from the yard, is it not possible they were on at bigger prices when the horse first arrived from France having not jumped a hurdle (in public)?
Captain Cee Bee was impressive last time out, though what he achieved in beating the extremely disappointing Leading Run and the 103-rated Backsideup I don’t know. The money that has come from him is certainly intriguing, but I’d be tempted to wait until he’s seen again (see how he is in the market for his next outing, and back for the Festival if the signs are positive there).
Has McManus always owned the horse, or has he been purchased along the way? It was interesting to see that JP bought Jered, who finished 3rd behind Captain Cee Bee in his Maiden, straight after the race.
This looks a proper horse to me and i’m convinced he would have won if he’d turn up on saturday at donny. Looks to me like Moore is educating him in big fields so he settles better and gains some confidence in his jumping..
This is a horse who wasn’t far from winning the prix du jockey club..
I certainly dont think he’d have been far away aragorn, and certainly looks up to winning such arace, hes hard to guage at the minute though, in the hustle bustle of a big field in the supreme novice you would like him show some gears beforehand, perhaps that is why they are running from the back in slow novice races, just to get him used to that. He does look quite well put together.
Another reason why they may not have bet is that highest honor horses tend to thrive on testing going and most of his best performances are on such conditions, perhaps they’ll wait and see ground and lump on if its suits, or maybe send him elsewhere if it doesnt, aintree could have a good chance of softer ground. I may wait till closer to the time and see what happens with him, if hes there on the day im almost defitely getting on him.
Captain c b looks to have been bought by jp after winning the 1m3 race at killarney last july, the trainer was talking about cheltenham even back then. I do think the support for him is genuine though, he hadnt ran since november then two weeks ago (just before binocular) he totally randomly just went 33s to 25s to 20s to 16s in the space of hours, then a few places in after that more gradually, they even mentioned him on ATR the next day and showed reruns of his last two runs and thats when i backed him initially. Now he turns up in a group2 where everything has 10lbs to find on him in the ratings on his last run alone, its too much of a coincidence i think.
I would argue that Numide will prove just as effective on decent ground, Bulwark, and perhaps improve for it (given the stronger pace that races on such surfaces would undoubtedly provide).
From the footage I have watched on the ATR website, his action doesn’t appear to be overly round and there’s nothing in his form to suggest quicker ground is an issue – in fact his closing 5th in the French Derby was the quickest ground he faced (his demolition of a not-to-be-seen-again Visindar, whilst on soft ground, owed as much to his front running for me).
He’s a good looking animal too – moves well through his races and clearly has gears. Given the chance to sit just off a decent pace, or even allowed a little bit of rein to make it himself, I think he could be a devastating hurdler.
I can certainly see no reason why anyone would think Numide should not run at Cheltenham. I’m sorry LGR and I am not getting at you in any shape or form but you are a mile off if you think this horse would be suited better by faster ground. Everything about him tells me he’s 100% a soft ground horse his action is anything but that of a horse who would want good ground but let’s not labour on the point. That apart he’s a lovely horse and taking it things go well for him at Kempton he’s sure to line.
If on the day it turns op soft there will be more finish behind him than in front of him that’s for sure. If I could be certain it was going to be good to soft or soft I would perhaps have another EW bet on him.
Cork all Star ran extremely badly on his last start and was given anything but an easy race. I think his price is anything but generous and can’t see him winning at Cheltenham despite having won the bumper last year.
The so called gamble on Captain Cee Bee continues but I have reservations of where the money is coming from. He is obviously usefull in his won right but his form has never been franked by anything and is very suspect. There was a lot of horses up his backside when he won the maiden hurdle too many for my liking got too close for comfort. He was however very impressive next time out but he would want to be in that it was an awful race. All you have to go with on him is that he travels well, looks like a good horse but how good is anyone’s guess. On the evidence of his first performance I wouldn’t have him on my mind for Cheltenham. I am pretty sure there is no huge JP McManus gamble on this horse, if there was he would be a damn sight shorter considering the opposition.
Be interesting to see which of the Irish raiders turn out for the Deloitte Novice H’dle in February at Leapordstown.
The one horse no one seems to be talking about is Ferdy Murphy’s. This is a really good horse who they think will win this or so I am told so. I am having a small bet on him and a small bet on Numide for an interest as one needs soft Ground and the other would prefer it good or good to soft. Doesn’t look a good race at all this year and I can’t see prices getting better than they are right now.
Khyber King is the one horse who could beat them all I suppose if there was something genuinely wrong the other day but he’s got to turn up first to be a threat.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.