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If it was a flat race it would be the most one sided affair you’ll ever see IC – thankfully it’s not and I’d imagine that we’ll get a fair idea of just how good First Lieutenant is tomorrow afternoon providing Pointilliste can hurdle and the others run their race.
The first at Navan tomorrow looks a great maiden hurdle for this time of year. First Lieutenant, Priests Road and Drumfire & Pointilliste both of whom were rated 110+ on the flat at one time.
I’d have to agree with Racing Post (quote)"It would be a big surprise if the winner emerged from the other 27"…that includes Priest’s Road
DRUMFIRE (Tissue 15-8)
Positives : Good recent form
Negatives : Form on soft is 3334, may not be fully effective on the ground. Wins on G, G, G, G/F
FIRST LIEUTENANT (Tissue 3-1)
Positives : Point win shows he can jump Acts on soft ground
Negatives : Racing Inexperience, Stable form 0-34 this season
POINTILISTE (Tissue 9-2)
Positives : French flat form on soft ground, especially against Kasbah Bliss
Negatives : 7-Y-Old, slightly late to start jumping, ran well below French form at DoncasterI’m leaning towards First Lieutenant, the 3-1 is very tempting, but in general I refer the Point/Bumper route to hurdling as opposed to the ex-flat runners, especially ex-French, which probably influences my preference, Drunfire appears the poorest value at the tissue prices
Plenty of the ex-French horses race far too free first time out in Hurdles/Bumpers and don’t get home before proving to be decent enough jumps horses. Not sure the same will happen with Pointilliste as he’s run on the flat in Ireland since his days in France.
Always wary of a P2P/Bumper winner in a Maiden Hurdle first time out, as generally it’s hard to tell whether they’re trying with them (seems fairly obvious on this occasion that the horse will be a graded performer this season IMO).
Martin
I’d be very surprised if there’s anything like 3/1 available tomorrow, even accounting for Westmeath’s eclipse for the same owners earlier in the week.
Mouse Morris’ form is something of a concern. His last winner was First Lieutenant’s bumper win at Gowran.
Market in the morning should be informative.
Despite First Lieutenant’s mistake at second last and the fact that’ll he’ll do better over a longer trip I don’t think we saw any Cheltenham contenders in the first race unless it was Pointilliste who looked as if he’d come on no end for this first run but will also need a longer trip than 2 miles.
Araucaria, on the other hand might well be a Cheltenham horse, she was very impressive overcoming plenty of trouble in running. She looks a mare with a very bright future over hurdles. I’ve had my eye on her ever since she ran For Bill to 1 & 3/4 lengths last October. One to add to my notebook I’d say.She was certainly on the "Owes IS Money" list prior to today CS – very impressed with her, lovely mare who should have won at both Leopardstown and Aintree last year IMO.
Martin
Yes CS I don’t think First Lieutenant is going to be one of the leading novices this year, yet wouldn’t give up on him yet. After the mistake at the 2nd last he didn’t get one smack, hands and heels to the line, staying on nicely. There’s races to be won with him.
First Lieutenant was 4th at Navan he drifted from 6/4 out to 7/2.I was there and he looked to be carrying a bit of condition and jumped like a buck,but missed the second last but Andy Mac was very considerate.Very promising run though.
Market vibes were not positive and he looked big enough to my eye in the parade ring. He was coming to win his race at the second last but he lost all his momentum at that hurdle and Andy Mac left him sort himself out and come home in his own time.
I don’t think he will be one of the top novice hurdlers this season either THM – because according to a few people on track yesterday he’ll be going novice chasing before Christmas. Apparently that’s the reason Mouse has him out this early.
I have three horses:
Zaidpour (FR)4yo-Supreme Novice
Owner – Mrs S Ricci
Trainer – W P Mullins
Was at Willies last year this half brother to Zaynar,couldnt get to the track last year but he said hed win the triumph last year so the supreme this year???Last Instalment(IRE)5yo-Albert Bartlet
Owner – Gigginstown House Stud
Trainer – Philip Fenton
Haked by a distance in a p2p bumper.Down with Philip last week and he put this in the same catagory as Dunguib….Rathlin (GB)5yo-Neptune
Owner – Gigginstown House Stud
Trainer – P J Rothwell
Jamie Codd got off him when he won doing handstands in a p2p and called him a machiene so who am i diagree but was killed by Last Instalment in that bumper in FairyhouseLast Installment and Rathlin are on my shortlist too, add Divine Rhapsody to the list
Is there any decent horses on the flat that could make a decent novice or juvenile hurdeler for the forthcoming season. We know about casual conquest which is suprising to see a group 1 winner been planned to run over hurdles. What are the chances of seeing any of these flat horses appearing at next years festival?
Free Agent
Icon Dream
Fortuni
BrunstonThese is just a small list but any additions from anyone on this forum will be more than welcome.
A horse called Lavis traind by Noel Meade is supposed to be a machiene.He was to be a bumper horse last year but didnt run,he will probely start off in a bumper then go for a maiden hurdle around Christmas and this horse will go right to the top-Remember In said This
Rangitoto and The Real Article are the two I’m most looking forward too.
Although EOG has said that The Real Article is more of an Aintree horse.
Colin Bowe is a top trainer going places particularly with his ex-pointers like
Askanna
, he was Champion trainer last season and is likely to do the same in the Pointing ranks in Ireland this season, he seems particularly good with mares in Bumpers and Hurdles (all i’ve seen them in in fairness). Hopefully he’ll keep Brian O’Neill on for the first few starts at least.
Took a 2 1/2m winners hurdle at Gowran today at 4/1 despite idling after the last. She’s 2/2 over hurdles, 3/3 under rules and 5/5 lifetime now – will be disappointed if she’s not competitive in those Graded mares hurdles this winter.
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