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I couldn’t seem to find a thread for this race on Saturday.
I sort of had a plan for this race months ago…basically to back Ella regardless, but sadly she’s not turned up. Luckily I didn’t back her AP or anything. Hope she’s OK.
It’s a shame, because I felt she was very well-handicapped, had a lovely pedigree for a heavy ground November handicap, and there’s some nice family history there too.
Not sure what to do now. Was thinking it may be worthwhile having a look at Mull of Dubai, bearing in mind he got within a few lengths of Ella at York. I can’t work out why he’s 25/1 though, I feel I must have missed something. If he gets his ground, he’s too big a price, isn’t he?
I’m going to have a deeper look tomorrow morning. I’ll probably realise what I’ve missed then. Anybody got any ideas ?
Ajaan loves the ground and, albeit not tried at this trip too often, has decent form over the trip. Seemed to weaken in the final furlong in the Newburgh and so 12F should really suit tomorrow
First Avenue is another i’m interested in. He’s ridiculously well handicapped for a horse on the up. Michael Jarvis reports him to be very well in a report on Sporting Life today.
If Young Mick can get a run he should be up there but a weight of 9-9 may be a little too much to carry here.
The danger is Night Crescendo who shows his best form at this time in the season and is proven on the ground and over the trip.
I’ll be backing Ajaan and First Avenue though
Good evening all.
I agree Colin, Mull Of Dubai is overpriced, it would be nice if Ajaan could finish a good season of for Henry Cecil, but i am going to row in with the Perrett/Crowley duo and Night Crescendo.
Good luck to everyone.
Adrian.
Just the bottom five or six in this field would make for an interesting race. My instinct is they are also the ones to concentrate on.
I still like Mull of Dubai. The negatives are; he is exposed, a bit in and out and he’s not lbs well in. Part of the gamble with him is that he can operate in this type of race & conditions, where better handicapped horses may not be able to.
I can understand the support for The Betchworth Kid, again the type of race will suit, but imo he’s had his wins earlier in the year and I’d guess he’d prefer a bit further. He’s also much higher rated now, 9lb worse off (igorning wfa) with Mull of Dubai on Doncaster running over 14f, & if that race was over 12f, I’m convinced MoD would have beaten him. So rather foolishly I’m going to say that The Betchworth Kid can’t beat Mull of Dubai.
I have similar feelings about Night Crescendo. He’s had a couple of wins at Ascot, & whilst he’s a regular in these type of races, my feeling is that he’s doing his winning for this year. Could still run OK, but would expect a few to beat him home.
My instincts say I should support First Avenue, my head says be careful. He has all the right connectons. I’m also sure he has the ability & is well enough handicapped, it’s just whether it comes out. I’ve had a couple of bad experinces backing quirky Montjeu horses (like Milne Gardens), & this one has already shown he’s not 100% straight. For that reason I’m going to leave him alone.
Electrolyser you just have to take seriously. He’s unexposed, looks to be improving and imo has a pedigree to really suit this type of race. The only question mark I have is that he has not proved himself in this type of contest yet. That’s not his fault, but there is a possibilty he may not act, where as a couple of the more hardened ones will.
In conclusion, I’ll have Mull of Dubai and Electrolyser as my picks. Will be gutted if First Avenue wins.
Electrolyser stands out like a sore thumb to me, while the inability of Tom Tate to find his backside with both hands these days might help explain the price of Mull of Dubai and Greek Envoy who would both be interesting in other hands. Of the outsiders, I like both Big Robert and Acropolis.
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