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I know this is a personal question VTC, but have you come down with a case of Midnitemudcrabs tonight?
lol Soldier, that’s an affliction I’ve had many a time, though hopefully a wee bit of 14’s should ease the pain.
A reverse forecast with Ken’s Sam’s would surely be asking too much surely??
Smashing days racing ahead, some decent stuff on show, and after (more or less) sitting it out this week, today looks the perfect day to lose some money. It’ll be the usual mix of Singles, Perms, and the odd Exactas chucked in.
Certainly for the perms only will be Fabulous Saga at Limerick, and Beyond The Clouds at Kelso. Although there’s always the suspicion that the best ones won’t be out this early, I’ve still been very impressed by Fabulous Saga, and I do see him as a nice type for The Albert Bartlett, and think he would make a proper chaser in time. Quite happy to make that early call with him, with a nod to the rather obvious fact that it is very early doors, and could be very wide of the mark. Talking about “wide of the mark”, I really liked Beyond The Clouds for The Cheltenham Bumper, but after a narrow defeat at Musselburgh, he didn’t go. He’s done little wrong though, and I’ll be disappointed if he can’t land this tomorrow.
Down at Uttoxeter, Enola Gay looks a very backable price at around 7’s, and although the market suggests that they’re not falling over themselves to bet him, I think he had real excuses last time, having lost a shoe, and reckon he’s worth another try for Venetia Williams/Daryl Jacob. Tyrolean doesn’t jump out straight away, but at around 14’s, I’ll definitely be with him as well, as he’s got Fehily on board, and he wasn’t that bad on the level, so could potentially have a bit to offer over timber.
Big Race of the day is obviously The Munster National, and I think I’ve said enough on the race thread, but still like to mention Dromnea & Alpha Des Obeaux, who I’ll be with, and quietly confident with, and also Shanpallas, who I don’t fancy as much now, withHe ground not drying out.
Also at Limerick is another horse I’m keen on at a price, and it’s King of Brega at 25’s. Maybe stretching it for win purposes, but I’d be hopeful he can sneak a place. I’m not so much concerned with the ground for him, as I am his latest form, but he’s a course and distance winner, and he’s slipping down the weights nicely, and he’s one who might just be overpriced. In the same race, Rightdownthemiddle can’t possibly be as bad as he was last time, while Wee Tiger is a horse I’ve got a soft spot for, and can see him making the frame.
Truffles is a horse who Stilvi mentioned a couple of times to me, and although she hasn’t done much recently, it’s worth noting that she got hit by a fair old mark for her maiden win. I’ve kept an eye on her though, without getting involved, bar one perm I think. Today at Navan may just be the day to tempt me. 25’s is fair for a horse who’s looked as if a step down in trip will suit, and after a many many goes over 7f since that maiden win, all of a sudden tomorrow, she’s out over 5. Definitely worth the risk.
Last but not least, and again at Navan, is The Irish Cesarewitch. I just cannot ignore Western Boy at 33’s. After a couple of disappointing runs, he was a lot more like it at Listowel last time, and he looks well treated on his old form, so the 6 places is a “no brainer”. I also like the look of Nietszche & Neverushacon. Nietschze ran very well in The Fred Winter, going close behind Flying Tiger, and that horse had a very very nice run at Ascot yesterday. Interesting that he’s making the journey across for this, and he looks too big at 20’s, so few quid win only on him. Neverushacon was a nice winner for me at Galway, showing that when they want to get him ready, they can. He has a few runs on the level this year that give him place possibilities here, and 25’s 6 places looks fair enough.
Well, not much chewing over things tonight, other than to say the ew perms went fairly well, and by fairly well, I mean I got my money back, and a few extra quid.
Fabulous Saga, Beyond The Clouds, Neverushacon, Wee Tiger, Enola Gay, and Alpha Des Obeaux were all in there, along with 4 losers (from above), and much as other bets let me down, I’m always happy when the perms pay.
Big Race of the day was very frustrating for me. Very hard to take when a plot job beats you like that, but I’ll take some consolation that bar the winner (and he was very impressive), I got ADO very right, and I was confident enough to make him win only. So bloody close, and The Munster National itself made it a losing day, thanks to the money I bet Ante-Post. I’m trying to convince myself that one of the fallers would have got second lol.
Neverushacon saved my bacon in The Irish Cesarewitch, but much like the perms, it was a small profit, though considering how my main fancy, Western Boy, ran, I was more than happy with that.
I was very happy with Truffles, and thought she was going to do it, but just didn’t quite get there. I will definitely try her again, especially after todays “miraculous” improvement at 5f.
Other plus points were the run of Wee Tiger at a nice price, and also not backing Fabulous Saga for The Albert Bartlett, which I was seriously considering.
These are my eyecatchers from the weekend.
Alpha Des Obeaux
Custard The Dragon
Flying Tiger
Palmers Hill
TrufflesHopefully I can get a wee break till Friday at the earliest now, and looking forward to The Cesarewitch, and hopefully a good show from Euchen Glen.
More than happy to have you on board Raymo in a big handicap
and besides, if he gets beat, I can blame you and say you jinxed me lolReally decent weekends racing ahead, with Newton Abbot, York, Chepstow, and Newmarket all throwing up some great racing. I’ve had some great results over this weekend in the past, but I’ve also had some bloody painful ones as well. None worse than 2 years ago. I mentioned it earlier in the thread, went to York for the 2 days, and don’t struggled to have a horse place, never mind win, then I had to watch on the lawn as Grumeti won The Cesarewitch at 50’s, when I was too late to back him at 66’s, and then retreating to The Bookies, I had to watch my old pal Court Minstrel win at 40’s, after I couldn’t get on in time on him either. There are no words.
I vowed then to always have a go when these fixtures come around, safe in the knowledge that things will never be as bad as they were that Saturday night
Love this Newton Abbot fixture, and some decent types back out, but not actually betting any of them.
Main bet of the day will be at York in the 1735, and it’s a horse I’ve never bet before, but who caught the eye at Ascot last week, and it’s Custard The Dragon. He might have a terrible name, but on his comeback run last week, he ran really well in a hot handicap over this trip, finishing 6th. Not particularly knocked about either, and I thought he’d be single figures for this off the back of that run. He’s 25’s just now, but I’ve taken the 5 places with Skybet at 22’s. Mujassam was looking very much on the downgrade, but his last run was more like it, and he looks a big danger at 14’s to me, and I’ll bet him win only.
There’s an equally competitive handicap earlier on the card, the 1445, and I just can’t let Nicholas T go unbacked at 40’s. This is his trip, he has his ground, and still has more progression in him. 40’s 5 Places looks very fair. Not the first time this season, I’ll have mentioned Bravery, and he just has to be a saver at 16’s. He’s ran plenty of good races in defeat since his win in The Lincoln, and he still looks well treated. Can’t keep siding with him I suppose, but he hasn’t cost me so much so far, and he looks worth the risk. Home Cummins ran well over C/D this season, and though I won’t bet him on his own, I’m happy to add him to the Trifecta. Think the 3 of them have sporting chance in this race, but conversely, the fav does look solid.
Just to round things off nicely at the track, we have another decent handicap at 1630, and one of my new favourite flat horses, Justanotherbottle, is back out. He gave me a nice lift at Doncaster last time in The Portland Handicap, turning what looked like an Ante-Post disaster into a success, when I topped up at 33’s on the day, after “stealing” 16’s a couple of days before
I really like this horse, and surely, the only way is up for him. More than happy with 17-2. Show Palace, like Bottle, isn’t that well drawn, and his winning is going to grind to a halt sooner or later, but although I’m not betting him, I’ve no issues with throwing him into an Exacta.Winston C was one of my selections when I went to Haydock last month, and like York 2 years back, was part of my textbook lesson in how not to bet. Crucially though, unlike the rest of them, he actually ran very well, and looked the winner all but close home. Back down in trip, he must have a live chance, and I’ve bet him win 20’s and ew’s 5 Places at 16’s. I can’t believe that price.
Although not betting over the sticks at Newton Abbot tomorrow, I’ll add Novo Dawn at around 8’s & Wee Small Hours at around 7’s to the ew perms. It’s October, can’t be betting only on the flat
York
1445 – Nicholas T, Bravery, Home Cummins
20p Combination Exactas & Trifectas
1630 – Justanotherbottle, Show Palace
1735 – Custard The Dragon, Mujassam
2 x 50p Reverse Exactas-£152.96
Definite loser of a day for me today, and Custard The Dragon was my biggest loser, followed by Winston C. Winston was very very poor, and I doubt I’d back him again, though Custard, after never getting into it, was doing some work at the end, and I could see a new Cliff Horse in the offing lol.
Bravery and Justanotherbottle got me some ew cash back, but not even close to making a dent in the above bets. Bottle ran well again from yet another bad draw, and he is just a very likeable type, and it was great to finally get a return from Bravery. Was gutted when I missed out on a potential Trifecta in Bravery’s race, especially when I said the Fav was solid.
Too tired tonight, but will put up tomorrows losers in the morning.
Always love The Cesarewitch, but looking back over the last few seasons, what was always one of my most profitable races, has been poor for me the last 3 renewals. It’ll be tough as ever this time around, but very happy with my main bet, Euchen Glen at 25’s ew, 5 Places, and a much smaller bet on Shrewd at 33’s ew. Sternrubin not making it was a sore one to take, while Landsman was nearly as small a bet as Shrewd, so not worried about him not making it. It’s not a race to go with 2, so what to add?
I think John Constable is a reformed character for the wind op, and he is now my idea of an ew cert at 10’s, but I’m just going to add him to the forecasts. I wouldn’t be putting that much extra on, as I’m not that far off my stakes limit for this race, so happy if I miss out on him, as whatever I bet on him, wouldn’t be near what I won off of him at Haydock, and he owes me nothing. I’ve also got the quandry of Swashbuckle, Swamp Fox, and Dubawi Fifty. It’s too late in the day to be worrying about going for the wrong one, especially as it would essentially be a saver, so I’m going for a loud one in Arthur McBride. His trial didn’t scream “Cesarewitch Winner”, and having watched it back a few times, I don’t whether or not he didn’t stay, he wasn’t good enough, or if he looked slightly amiss. Whatever the reason, it was not a good trial, but he’s still here, and I don’t think he’ll be a social runner. That last run is a massive negative, and NTD is not one of the Jump yards you would associate with this race, but I’ll have a few quid ew at the 8 places, and a small bet on the machine, as I did like a couple of his races earlier in the season, and I’ll go out on a limb with him. Just a bit of fun Arthur, but saves me the headache of picking my #3 out of a long early shortlist who all made it on the day.
The Silver Trophy is an absolute cracker. I’ve bet Sam Spinner at 16’s, 5 Places, he is my main fancy, and also went with Court Minstrel at the same odds. I would bet Alary, but as I’ve had a swing at him on my Gold Cup Book, any sign that he actually has ability today, will do for me.
In the same ownership as Alary, is one of my big hopes for the season, Sizing Codelco, and he runs in the 1645. I’ve bet him for The Ladbroke/Cheltenham Gold Cup Double, but worried about what will happen today. If he wins, he might be too high for Newbury, while if he gets beat, they might scrap plans for the big one. No idea what I want to see today. Rock The Kasbah looks a worthy favourite, while Indian Stream looks an interesting contender, and I just wonder if it may be significant that she holds an entry for the JN Wines Chase at Down Royal.
Not going to be a big betting day for me, stakes wise, but others I like are Westerland, Seahenge, Fidaawy, Eqtiraam, and Hoof It.
Silver Trophy
Sam Spinner, Court Minstrel, Old Guard
20p Combination Exactas & TrifectasCourt Minstrel, Sam Spinner paid £101.20
-£141.60
It’s great obviously having any winner, but even better when it’s one of your favourites, and Court Minstrel put a big smile on my face yesterday, and went a long way to easing the pain of missing out on him 2 years ago. Third decent lift I’ve had from him in the last 12 months, and his win, getting 16’s, made sure it’ll be a winning weekend whatever happens today, and that’s including my a/p’s on The Cesarewtich. I had the added bonus of having Sam Spinner each way at the same odds, and also the exacta as well. I added Old Guard for a few quid each way as well late on, and I thought he ran very well. He’s slowly on the way back, and he’ll win for sure this year.
No complaints in The Cesarewitch. Plot or no plot, he looked a very nice winner, and although I was very hopeful for Euchen Glen ante-post, I didn’t feel as confident before the race, and he never really threatened. Slightly miffed that I didn’t take that 25’s on Dubawi Fifty, I knew that price was wrong, but as most of my cash would always have went the way of Sternrubin anyway, we’re only talking a few quid, and would have been miles off of a profit on the race.
No joy at York with Eqtiraam or Hoof It, and though Eqtiraam ran well, this might be the last time I bet Hoof It. Much like Court Minstrel, he’s been a smashing horse to have onside the last few years, but age just might be catching up.
Didn’t bet anything else single yesterday, although I did the forecasts on the Chepstow 1645. I missed out on Kasbah at a decent 7-2 earlier on, but to be honest that’s not my kind of price, and not too gutted, as the race was all about Codelco for me. As I said beforehand, I had my reservations about this target for him. He’d have to have been absolutely A1 to win that yesterday, and he clearly was anything but A1. I can only hope that tunes him up, and he gets dropped a pound or two, and stays on track for Newbury.
Today’s all about two things for me.
1. Keeping my money after a busy weekend. Court Minstrel and Sam Spinner gave me decent lifts, but always important when waffling away on here to acknowledge the losers, and taking into account my Sternrubin bet, and Fridays punts, it’s not long in eating in to the profits. It’s a tough weekend this, so I’ll be careful today, and keep it strictly to small stake ew perms, as I want to escape the 3 days nicely ahead, whatever happens today.
2. Double Ross. If Court Minstrel is an old pal, then this guy is not far off best pal territory. Love him to bits, and he’s been very profitable for me over the years. After his heroics at Newbury last year, he went to ground, and having failed to hear any updates, I assumed he’d been retired. He’s back though, and runs in a hot little Veterans Race at Chepstow. Excited to see him back, he goes well fresh, and he must have a shout today, as he’s on a nice mark considering his ability, and the fact that his last run was third in The Hennessy. If everything is where it should be today, then he must have a realistic chance of making the frame at Newbury again, though I just wonder if he’d be worth a crack at The Becher. The more I think about him, the more I think “Aintree”. We’ll know more today.
With November approaching, sticking to jumpers today, though if things go well early doors, I might look at Pettochside at Goodwood.
Chepstow
1340. Fav looks strong in the opener, but I’ll give a chance to Speedo Boy, who looks as if hurdling should suit.1415. Elegant Escape is one of my Novice Chasers to follow this season, and I’m hoping he has a good introduction today. Captain Chaos, if over his spill last term, could be interesting too.
1525. Double Ross for me, and he may be a late single if the price is right. As much as I could give a squeak to Killala Quay, the forecasts will be for Potters Point, who got me an exacta round here last year, and also a nice return at Newbury. I’m also considering Forgotten Gold, who has plenty of positives here too.
1600. Oldgrangewood didn’t quite achieve what I thought he would last year, but back over timber he looks very appealing at his current price. He did come up short in a hot race at Ayr last time, but I liked the manner of one of his Wetherby wins last year.
1635. The old pals just keep on coming, and Village Vic is back. I’m not betting him, as I thought he looked as if he had fallen out of love with the game last time. I’ll roar him home if he wins though, and he does have a good record at this time of year, and also runs well fresh. If Vic wasn’t there, I would be with Ultragold, but happy to sit this one out.
I’ll sit the last 2 out, though if any winnings, Mahlermade looks a big price in the last.
Cork
A few catch the eye here, and will make the perms also.
Young Turk is obviously not quite as good as I thought he would be, but even up against a very strong looking favourite, with conditional on board over this trip, I’ll be disappointed if he doesn’t make the frame. The 1550 looks a decent race. Unusually for me, I like the favourite Ballyoisin, and he’d be strictly perm only, but in the same race, along with Double Ross, if I do go with any singles today, it’ll be with Draycott Place & Neverushacon here, both at big prices. Neverushacon has already paid his way for me and more the last 2 months, while Draycott Place cost me a few quid last time, and was miles off what I thought he would do. In the 1625, Bilko looks way too big at 5’s, and I thought he’d be Fav here.
Risk free day then, and playing with winnings, but more of a day to sit back and enjoy without eating into those profits too much. No pressure, but it would be nice to get a few quid back from the perms, while I’d love to see Double Ross & Village Vic do it. If I do have any of them on their own, it’ll be Double Ross, Neverushacon, and Draycott Place.
Hope you did Pettochside today mate. If you’re talking about great old favourites, he deserves to be in the conversation.
I did Soldier, and a very happy boy tonight after that. He’s just the most likeable type, and yet another one of those horses, who, for whatever reason, seems to be continually overpriced. I got 20’s on the machine as well, so just worked out perfectly.
How I got there though, involves a (sort of) aftertiming, so apologies in advance. When I said Ballyoisin was strictly perms only, he was around 3’s, so I went with Draycott Place 11’s ew (gamble on him had started by then), and I took the 4 places 14’s with Neverushacon. I couldn’t believe it when Ballyoisin was widely available at 6’s before the off, and I just had to go with him as well. Had the 3 of them running for me, and I was getting excited as the 3 of them were bang there 2 out. Only going to be one winner though, and he won that as he liked, he must have another in him. My initial disappointment at not having the trifecta soon passed, as to get the 1, 3, 4 in a race like that was fab, and very happy with how that race panned out.
I also went with Double Ross, and should have traded out when he went short, but thought he would be ok. He got pegged near the end, but I really don’t see any reason why he can’t come on for that, and I was very happy with the spark he shown, and he’s not to be dismissed just yet.
That took me on to Pettochside, and once hit the front that was it, the runner up came to him, but no way was he getting by. Happy days. Second time he’s won for me in the last few weeks, and hopefully I’ll get the chance to nab some nice odds on him next year as well.
Usual mixed bag for the perms. Highlights were Oldgrangewood showing plenty, and the jumping of Elegant Escape. I put up Elegant Escape as a Novice Chaser to follow, and he really did jump very well. A step up in trip can only help. Speedo Boy was just Ok, while Bilko was very disappointing.
As promised, I did got for Mahlermade if things went well, but he was never sighted.
All in all a great weekend, and after a disappointing Friday, yesterday and today couldn’t have went much better. Very happy again with how things are going. Apologies again for the late Ballyoisin call.
Racing radio has been playing up on my computer; keeps cutting out. So today I didn’t turn it on, look at the racecards or have oddschecker on [till later in the afternoon] because it was doing my head in. To add insult to injury, Mike phoned and said ‘oh, I noticed that but assumed you knew about it’.Don’t understand, because utube and catchup tv works ok. Radio sport 927 does the same [and I like listening to Australian racing on the run up to the Melbourne Cup]. Still, Ken Pitterson is doing the paddock picks for W Hill on Borders National Day and I’ll be able to earwig what he says, so that’s to look forward to!
and besides, if he gets beat, I can blame you and say you jinxed me lol
I really like this horse, and surely, the only way is up for him. More than happy with 17-2. Show Palace, like Bottle, isn’t that well drawn, and his winning is going to grind to a halt sooner or later, but although I’m not betting him, I’ve no issues with throwing him into an Exacta.
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