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It’s finally here then, and not quite at the fever pitch of previous seasons. That’s probably much to do with the weather as anything, and also the fact that I’ve seriously scaled back the Ante-Posts this year, as well as for the last couple of months, betting in general. Also, if I’m being honest, after last years Cheltenham, where everything possible went right, I have to realise that it can’t happen two years on the trot. I do want that buzz again though lol
I’ll be doing a lot of minimum stake each way perms each day, so to save me repeating myself, these will be combined to take advantage of place concessions.
It’s still the best time of the year for Racing though, from now till Punchestown at the end of April, there’s nothing like it, and going to enjoy every second that I can.
This ground is going to be interesting though, and no surprise to see a few shock results.
Supreme
Never a race I go mad in, and this year is no exception. Had a couple of quid last summer on Le Richebourg, but I was more than aware that the summer is not the ideal time for Cheltenham candidates.Nothing much doing ante-post, but I’ve went for Simply The Betts at 80’s. I rate Beyond The Clouds highly, and the fact that he got so close to him at Musselburgh, and also the fact that he was full of running at the end, on soft enough ground, gives me a glimmer of hope. Only a glimmer mind.
I’ll have a day of race bet though, and a wee go on Paloma Blue. I don’t think he’ll mind the ground as much as some, and I’ll take the 12’s with Skybet, to get the free bet, should he lose. Happy to see Russell booked, and the last run gives me some hope.
Arkle
Never a race I have much interest in, and this year is no exception. No bet.Ultima
One of my favourite races of the week, though I would agree that isn’t the best line up I’ve ever seen for it. Still, plenty in there to chew over.Of my original bets, only Sizing Codelco makes it, and despite the ground, hopeful of some kind of resurgence from a horse who was one my two big hopes for The Gold Cup this……lol/FFS etc
Thankfully NRNB has taken care of the others, so starting from scratch a little.
Cogry made my initial shortlist for this, and I’d have no concerns at all with conditions for him, and his run here at the start of the season brings him right into this I reckon. 25’s looks a very fair price to me. I’ll bet him each way once five/six places become available, though have bet him win only just now, as I really do like that price.
I would normally have three in this, but struggling just now to make that call. Minella Daddy was on my original list, and it may be him. I see him as National horse long term, and he was lot more like it last time, while Ramses De Teille is entitled to improve. Wakanda only wins when I don’t bet him, so all you Wakanda fans pile in, as he’s only fourth choice if I do add another lol. Shantou Flyer is a horse who I always thought was too high in the handicap, but he has the assistance of Bowen, and will absolutely love conditions here, and he may be the one as well.
Sizing Codelco Win 50’s
Sizing Codelco EW 33’s NRNB BOG
Cogry Win 25’s
Cogry Each Way 22’s (5 Places)Champion Hurdle
My “book” on this last year was a real highlight, but never got off the ground this time around, and as I’ve said a few times, it’s been pretty stale all year round. I’ve not had a strong fancy, and in a way I’m happy with my Samcro call. First time I’ve ever joined in any of the “next big thing” Novice hypes, and I feel that if they go chasing next year, they’ll wonder why they didn’t head here.As for Ante-Post, no big bets at all, only a few quid invested. Got Charli Parcs up to 740’s, who has no chance, and John Constable, who the ground has went totally against.
Small interest on the day with Mick Jazz, who did the business for me at Leapordstown, and Elgin, who actually looks to have loads in his favour.
Charli Parcs 400’s to 740’s
John Constable 80’s
Elgin 20’s Each Way
Mick Jazz 40’s Each WayMares
Again, never a race I bother with, though to be fair, last years renewal was decent, and this is miles better than the average bunch that Quevega used to beat.I had a very small bet on Kayf Grace antepost at 20’s, but she’s hard to enthuse about after Newbury, while more than happy with the 300’s to 310’s I got on Midnight Tour. She won’t be good enough, but I’ll get a run for my money hopefully, as she was a creditable sixth in it last year. Ill top up with an each way on her.
Kayf Grace 20’s ew
Midnight Tour 300’s to 310’sNational Hunt Chase
After The Gold Cup, it’s a toss up between this and The Kim Muir, as to which is my favourite race of the week. It’s quickly became the best Novice Chase of the week over the last few years, and this years looks another good renewal.Really want the winner of this, as it would give me a 5 Timer.
This is one of my big betting races of the week, so always have a few quid set aside for any bets I fancy after Final Decs.
I knew my fate with Fagan last week, after Elliots comments about the ground, and although I’m happy that No Comment has made, I still share LostSoldiers concerns about trainer form, but that aside, I think he has a real live chance. As for Pylonthepressure, he would be a big win for me. Surprised he went under the radar after his last win, and I give him a live chance too.
As I said though, I’ll no be shy adding to this race, and Mossback will be getting added, serious chance, and I will have a definite each way interest in Shades of Midnight as well.
No Comment 25’s EW
Pylonthepressure 100’s to 110’s
Mossback 6’s Win
Shades of Midnight 40’s EWClose Bros Novices
Another race I really enjoy, and one where it can throw up some nice sorts.Decent looking line up for this race yet again, and a nice betting heat.
Well Western Miller makes it, but there are obvious concerns about the ground for him, and he’s now available at 100’s. I will top up, despite the ground.
From my original shortlist
Any Second Now
Divine Spear
De Plotting Shedall make it, and that doesn’t make things much easier, as it’s not a race where I want a big spread of horses for my stake.
I missed the odds with Shed, but he’ll be in there for a sure as win saver, having mentioned him a few times as real plot horse. Any Second Now is surely a Gold Cup horse of the future, and I’m torn between betting him here or Fairyhouse, where I think he has a major chance. As for Divine Spear, I’m not concerned at all about his reverse last time, but stablemate Rather Be looks rock solid as well, and struggling to split the NJH pair, so I might just take it on the chin if I miss out on him. It’ll be a late decision then with Any Second Now, not sure what to do, and that win saver with Shed.
One I will add is Jameson at around 66’s. He doesn’t quite look to have the scope of some of these, but he’s had his moments this term, and I like Bellamy for him, even though yard have stronger looking claims here. Not bet him yet, as he’ll be each way, and I’ll try to nick an extra place.
Western Miller 40’s ew (Ante-Post NRNB BOG)
De Plotting Shed (Win)
Jameson (Ew)That’s that then for day one, and will not be going mad, I’ll be very guarded, but still looking forward to it all, and here’s to a good week.
Best of luck to the half dozen of you who actually read my waffle.
Thanks Ben, I appreciate that. If I do have a winner, it’s highly unlikely to be Charli though.
The pressure will always be off though as far as a winless Cheltenham goes. I managed to manage that feat in 2013. That was not my favourite year lol
Evening……..The lull before the storm.
Finally here,on unmolested ground,what more could we ask for?Well just the odd winner would be nice,will not bore you with details,main fancy always first.
1-30 Mengli Khan
Sharjah
Us And Them EW………very difficult,small stakes,with a few pool bets no doubt.2-10 Saint Calvados……..Jumping will be key out of heavy ground,he may get done for toe,fascinating race for so few runners.
2-50 Minella Daddy
Vintage Clouds……….really like the profile of minella,and we have the best rider this side of the sea on chasers,and he rides cheltenham brilliantly,should go on this ground.
Vintage fine horse,travelled well last year before crumpling under the useless Quinlan,stride slower tomorrow and he should be in the mix,another fine jumper and a real trier.3-30 Ch’tibello
Elgin…………….Not convinced by jolly on real deep ground,both of these should revel in it,can see this being a lot closer than presumed.Both EW in the with/without market….mainly in the with market.4-10 La Bague Au Roi…..stepping back in trip,johnson has not seen a stride since rooster,he needs to set the fractions before turning in,this horse will love the ground.
4-50 Ms Parfois
Duel At Dawn
Shades Of Midnight………..discussed on main thread,hoping the mares allowance can swing it,they will need to go steady to get home,agree with you on this race,a real favourite.5-30 Testify
Mister Whitaker………..If theres a better novice jumper than testify,yet to see it.Early days,they may just have a gold cup horse here if he stays sound.Mr Whit sadly has Emlyn booked,normally avoid this jockey at all costs,but he,s a fine jumper who looks ahead of his mark.Sods law we should get heavy,19 Irish winners last year,was wondering if the constant watering was bringing stamina more into play,with their horses normally running on deeper ground through winter,is there an angle for future festivals?
The other one is jockey age…..be keeping a close eye on how some of the younger jocks perform,saw at the weekend just how weak jacobs/bargarry were,the garbage that comes out tv re top riders,most are past it in my opinion.No surprise that Frost and Bowen junior make immediate impact,how much fitter are they at the end of a race?
Tremendous week…..be keeping an eye on yours,for the place money
Having received a couple of excited messages 2017…..I am expecting more of the same.
Above all lets enjoy it……..best of luck for the 4 days.
Apologies Flyers, tried to reply last night, but the forum was down for a while.
Yup, lull before the storm sums it up perfectly.
Some nice shouts on that list, and very happy to see you with a few of mine as well, very encouraging that.
Always like your angles on the other topics, and been reading your thoughts on the other place regarding the ground, and can’t argue with most of it. Interesting point re: the jockeys as well, and when you think about it, it’s common sense really. I’m 44, and I play fives with guys in their late teens, and it’s hard bloody work trying to catch up with them, even before you get near the ball. Interesting.
Did you get my message on here alright? I hope that I’ll be sending you some excited messages this time around, but I’d say it’s odds against at the moment…….not brimming with confidence, I get an awful lot wrong when the ground goes like this.
Fingers crossed for a few winners between us this week, and best of luck mate.
No worries…..same here last night,first time seen this one down.
Lots moaning re ground,opposite for me,natural ground is a rarity,it will be interesting if the weight stats come back into play,not easy to assess on the first day,but we might get a clue today.
Brief word on chelt forum earlier with someone who knows the owner of the gary moore horse in the ultima,Casse Tete,I stuck him up when he won last time at warwick,they think he will go well today,had a few quid on him as a saver.
Be cheering on yours as well…….great days racing.
GL
Not too much to add on Day One, other than “what about that Midnight Tour”…….so bloody close, and would have been a whopper for me at odds over 300’s.
Main Lowlights were not getting a five timer in The NH Chase, my luck coming to an end, while Cogry was very poor. Sizing Codelco was desperate again, and the horse clearly has some sort of issue.
No winners then, but four ew returns, taking maximum advantage of place concessions, made all the difference.
Paloma Blue ew 14’s
Mick Jazz ew 40’s
Midnight Tour ew 100’s
Jameson ew 50’s, and 66’sDespite those cracking odds, it was a losing day by a few quid, as I had plenty on The NH Chase, and that ate into the profit.
Still when you’re hitting 40, 66, and 100-1 shots each way, you’re no in a position to complain, and very happy with how Day One went.
Morning Mate
Real sickener Midnight…..hoping you had an in play lay?Losing day here,most ran ok, ms parfois was a real shame,no disgrace getting nutted after 4 miles,if they all ran that well,I will be happy.Mr Whitaker clawed a little back,despite hughes every effort to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Two tough handicaps,the graded races look no easier,not so sure why I was looking forward to this so much
1-30 Duc De Genievres / Vision Des Flos
2-10 Black Corton / Elegant Escape
2-50 Voix De Reve / The Organist
3-30 Min
4-10 Urgent de gregaine / Hurricane Dawn
4-50 Grand Sancy / Esprit de samosaWill have a look at the bumper later,not a race I go mad.
As always need that little bit luck at the right time,just so your not alone,also had midnight/la bague/apples jade in exacta/trifecta coming to last
Keep at it.
Well on to Day 2, and as it’s by far the weakest of the 4 days, it’s my day for going out on the piss, so just a quick look.
Ballymore
Very hopeful that we see the real deal from Samcro today, so not much of a betting. Not that it will stop me. Last years winning yard have the big outsider Gowiththeflow at 80’s, while Brahma Bullat 33’s, just looks a bit big to me. Can’t possibly be big bets on that pair, but a wee bit each way won’t hurt.RSA
It’s great for this thread that Presenting Percy and Monalee have risen through the ranks, as many a discussion about the pair on here between myself and Stilvi. If neither of them can win, I hope that Black Corton can do the business, as it would give me hope for my 66’s on The King George. No bet though.Coral Cup
Very hopeful for Fixe Le Kap, who I took the 33’s each way on, while I have savers on Diamond King & William Henry.Champion Chase
Again, not a big race for me, but big odds on Ordinary World, both on the exchanges, and each way. Bang there with Min when he clouted the last at Leapordstown, and though debatable if he would have won, I don’t think he’d have been beaten far. Min is 4’s, Ordinary World is 66’s.Cross Country
Cause of Causes and Tiger Roll in the same race. I don’t have much to add on the pair, that I haven’t already done on here. Hoping for a good run from Beeves, to book his ticker for Aintree, while at around 33’s, Hurricane Darwin could surprise, and I’ll have an each way on him.Fred Winter
No strong view on this race, but I’ll chance Oxford Blu 18’s, and Mastermind 28’s, both each way 5 Places.Bumper
Been keen on Didtheyleaveyoutoo for months, but went with Seddon antepost at 50’s. I’ll cover the JP horse too, and 16’s is big.Coral Cup
Fixe Le Kap, Diamond King, William Henry
20p Combination Forecasts, and TricastsCross Country
Cause of Cause & Tiger Roll
£10 Reverse Exacta
20p Combination Forecasts and Tricasts with Hurricane DarwinFred Winter
Oxford Blu, Mastermind
Bumper
Seddon, Didtheyleaveyoutoo
2 x 50p Reverse Exactas-£314.47
Oooft, that would have been a nice trifecta mate. Yeah, always lay in running, if I have a horse with a potential big return. It softened the blow……….just.
Good to see you with Hurricane Darwin, this is a horse who is not be underestimated, and good luck with him, and the rest of your squad as well of course.
WD with your Mick Jazz and Midnight Tour EWs, they both ran good races esp little Midnight Tour, a game little thing.
I like your Brahma Bull bet on this ground. He caught my eye in Listowel that harvest festival week when they were running in a bog and he was giving away weight.
Cheers Grass, that Midnight Tour race nearly tipped me over the edge lol
GL with Brahma, sporting chance of a place hopefully.
No time for the usual waffle today, still a bit tender (i.e hungover to f’ck) today. Not much I can add from yesterday. As I haven’t been shy in saying, Tiger Roll is the real deal, should be in The Gold Cup tomorrow, and by far my biggest bet of the week, at 20’s, and also 12’s to win any race. It was a day, and night, to remember in the pub. Paying for it now.
It was a good job Tiger did the business, as bar a decent lay in running on Seddon, it was mainly losers. So disappointed with Cause of Causes, and I hope he bounces back. I’ve said many times (and so did Flyers Nap) that I couldn’t see the pair of them running in this, it didn’t make sense, and it may just be that that was purely an Aintree prep for Cause of Causes.
On to the Pertemps, and got Dell Arca 33’s ew 6 Places, also 40’s and 42’s, Kansas City Chief 33’s ew, and Delta Work 11’s win.
Pertemps
Dell Arca, Kansas City Chief, Delta Work
20p Combination Forecasts and Tricasts-£317.87
Been a good day, and even got the winner The Brown Plate, albeit through the back four with The Storyteller, but ironically didn’t have this race on my mind for him. Chuffed obviously, but I’d have been with Ballyalton all day, and I can’t read this race.
Won enough today to justify playing a couple each way in The Mares Novices.
Cut The Mustard 33’s
High School Day 10’s
50p Reverse Forecast-£321.27
One of my favourite races of the week, and as well as my two Ante-Post, I’ve got a small each way on Aubusson, but as per, went with my old pal Double Ross. Went with him 50’s each way, and a fair old price on the exchange.
Kim Muir
Squouateur, Double Ross, Mall Dini
£1 Combination Exactas, and Trifectas-£333.27
Aaaaaaarghhhh, F’ck Sake
Evening
Well done with Tiger…..think we were half correct,only one of them turned up
Fair few quid going onto the french horse,knew my fate once they cleared the final bend,another great performance.Also suffering from the dreaded hangover,wednesday finnished on a high,maybe discuss it over a couple of paracetamol another day.
Day 4 beckons,seems to have flown by,good luck tomorrow.
Squouateur, Double Ross, Mall Dini
£1 Combination Exactas, and Trifecta
…OH S**T!! If it’s any consolation, I keep a list of horses that have placed the previous year with the intention of backing some of them, and I totally forgot about Missed Approach [even though I had marked it with a highlighter pen this morning}. Talk about a suitable name #kickingmyself
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