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A mighty ante-post book to say the least, very impressive! Love a lot of those bets, too many to name them all, but especially like the cheekiness of Townshend at 50/1, crazy price for a horse that you just know has been kept under wraps ready to be unleashed at the festival.
Cheers Ben, I live in hope haha
Yeah, Townshend is an interesting one, and I’m glad you flagged him up, as I hadn’t noticed I’d still to update the odds, actually got him 48’s to 75’s. That’s it edited now. To be honest I think he’ll go The Martin Pipe route, but thought The County was worth a pop
Cheers N
been a good start to the year, and very happy with things since the December meeting at Cheltenham. As you say, just got to keep chipping away on the lead up to Cheltenham.D-Day fast approaching, and hoping that my handicap picks take up an entry, and also hoping most of my Novices stand their ground.
Not particularly impressed by Seeyouatmidnight there at Newcastle, and he looks to be, as expected, just short of what’s required for The RSA. Quite why he didn’t get an entry for The JLT Chase, but got one for The National Hunt Chase instead, is not clear, but he’ll be RSA bound after that anyway. I hope I’m wrong, for obvious reasons, but I couldn’t be overly confident after that. I’ll cling on to the thought that he just might have needed that.
2 big chases today, in The Eider, and The Betbright Chase, and had to have a go.
The Betbright Chase is the race I’ve got the best record in, but faced a fare challenge this year. Main fancies Champagne West & Ziga Boy, along with, to a lesser extent, Ruben Cotter have been joined late on by Rocky Creek. Throw into the mix a top notch field, and I had no option but to try and do a “book”. Was always going to be difficult with limited liquidity, but only a few quid down, and got 9 of the 16 running for me. Just hope I’ve picked the right ones. I do do this now and then, with decent success in The Gold Cup, and more recently, the last 2 renewals of The Welsh National, but wouldn’t be in a rush to do it too often.
The Eider was a harder race to look at, and 2 small bets on Russe Blanc, who the ground may have gone against, and Top Wood, who doesn’t make it. Wyck Hill has became my main fancy now, but he’ll have to be decent to beat the likes of Milborough, Cultram Abbey, Summery Justice, and Ballyculla, to name but a few.
Few changes here and there since last update.
World Hurdle is no longer a green book, as I just couldn’t leave Saphir Du Rheu alone at those odds, and now a few quid in the red. I’ll almost certainly be adding Minella Rocco (RSA) to the list of non runners, as he’s off to The 4 Miler, but I’d left just short of a fifty quid lay on him on Betfair, and someone nabbed it at lunchtime today, so The 3 Miler is now a green book for me. That would be the main changes from the last update. Old thread edited, and NR’s added to other post.
Bob i know cheltenham next week but any views on midlands national i like this BEG TO DIFFER was on him at Sandown last time think longer trip bring even more improvement from him 10/1 decent price like UPSWING as well.
Hey Darren, I’ve bet 3 in The Midlands National so far, and you’ll be “pleased” to know that Upswing is one of them. I took the 14’s with Ladbrokes.
I’m also on Mad Brian 20’s, and Standing Ovation 25’s. Happy enough with those 3, but I’ll give it another look on Monday.
Good luck with The Midlands National mate, and of course Cheltenham this week
Last update on Cheltenham Ante-Post bets, as I’ll be surprised if I do anything else now A/P. After having my worst ever Cheltenham last year, not helped by poor Ante-Post bets, very happy that I’ve managed to go green on a few races, and should make some difference at the end of the week. I haven’t put my money where my mouth is yet on this one, but I’m seriously considering laying Vautour for The Gold Cup. So many reasons to lay him, and I’d be amazed if he even runs in The Gold Cup. Ryanair for him surely. I’ll have to decide soon.
Supreme Novices
2 small bets on Outsiders, both NR’s, but no harm done.Arkle (Green Book)
Very happy to get a decent profit off of Ttebbob, especially in a race I don’t particularly care for that much.
Sizing John 20’s EW
Ttebbob 55’s to 65’s (laid at 17.5’s)
Rock The World 190’s to 750’s3 Miler (Green Book)
Very happy again with my profit on this race, though shame to see Upswing missing out. Holywell gave me one of my proudest moments on TRF when he landed this 2 years ago, and it would be great to see him do it again. I’d win more on Fingal Bay, but the market suggests he might go to The Plate. I really hope the market is wrong. Salubrious is no back number, and I’m also on his side in The Plate. I’m terrified of Caroles Destrier in this.Cause of Causes 48’s Laid 27’s to 32’s
Fingal Bay 20’s EW
Fingal Bay 27’s to 29’s
Holywell 16’s
Minella Rocco 26’s to 80’s Laid 13’s
Salubrious 90’s to 95
Upswing 25’s to 28’s
Midnight Prayer 75’sChampion Hurdle
Could have greened out on this over the last fortnight, but as not that much of a loser, and in a race I never planned to get involved in this season, happy to let these 3 take their chance and give me a bit of “fun”. I still quietly fancy Old Guard & Sign Of A Victory, but in the very likely event they don’t win, I’ll be cheering on The New One, who’s taken a lot of (sometimes nasty) abuse over the last couple of years. For a horse who’s ran twice at Cheltenahm, and failed to win twice, it seems strange to label Annie Power a name like “The Mare”, as if she should be mentioned in hushed tones, but she’s still very decent, and in an open enough race, that 7lb swing is absolutely massive, and I think she’s a wee bit overpriced. I reckon she’ll win alright.Peace and Co 14’s Each Way
Old Guard 32’s to 44’s
Sign Of A Victory 380’sNational Hunt Chase
Could have green out several times on this, but happy enough to let it ride. His jumping will almost certainly be his undoing. I really like Minella Rocco, and Noble Endeavour in this.
Vintage Vinnie 70’s to 200’sNeptune
Itsafreebee 32’s
Its’afreebee 66’s EWRSA
Could have laid SYAM, but although I think he’ll come up short, I’ll let it ride.
Seeyouatmidnight 34’s to 40’s
Pleasant Company 310’s to 1000’sCross Country
Rossvoss 120’sBumper
Battleford 24’s to 30’sJLT
Pleasant Company 850’s to 1000’sRyanair
This race has been carnage for me, and despite laying a good few quid on Ma Filleule, still well behind on it. Village Vic, who I have as favourite for this, looks to be heading for The Plate. Fingers burnt, and I’ll let those left standing take their chance. Baily Green would be a huge winner for me, and for a horse who should have won The 2013 Arkle, and would have went close in The 2014 Champion Chase, he’s a big price. The problem with him is when he’s bad, he’s very bad.Village Vic 28’s to 46’s
Village Vic 28’s Each Way
Dynaste 34’s
Annacotty 70’s to 140’s
Vroum Vroum Mag 44’s
Gods Own 120’s to 150’s
Kings Palace 120’s to 250’s
Baily Green 710’s to 1000’sWorld Hurdle
Small red book on this, but very happy with these two, and fairly confident of a run for my money.Aux Ptit Soins 95’s to 100’s (laid 11’s to 13.5’s)
Saphir Du Rheu 19’sKim Muir
Cause of Causes is my biggest bet of The Festival, and I’ve got everything crossed. Had to bite the bullet and add him to the market myself, and had a few quid on at Bet365, and watched as he sat priced up all alone on Oddschecker with Bet365 only. I thought for a while he wasn’t going, when no-one else priced him up, but thankfully not the case. Our Father would have been a big player, but sadly he’s out injured with a few quid of mine on him. Heard last night that Guess Again isn’t making the trip, that would be a disappointment, but hopefully that information is wrong. Not sure if I’ll green out, especially as I don’t have Cause of Causes on the exchange, but I think I might just get away with it.Cause of Causes 20’s Each Way
Guess Again 33’s Each WayGuess Again 17.5’s to 20’s
Top Wood 26’s to 34’s
Amigo 100’sCounty Hurdle
Ivan Grozny 100’s to 110’s
Townshend 48’s to 75’sGold Cup
The plan was always to go green off of Carlingford Lough, and my projected price on him on Betfair looks like going according to plan with him. If I can possibly lay off a few quid on the rags that would help as well. Bit of fun, and gun to my head, it’s Don Poli who I reckon will win. He’ll be my bet on the day probably, as I want to keep my excellent record in The Gold Cup going.Smad Place – 250’s to 270’s Laid 16’s to 20’s
Irish Cavalier – 300’s to 710’s
Carlingford Lough – 200’s to 660’s
Sir Des Champs 170’s
On His Own 500’s to 1000’s
O’Faolains Boy 33’s ewFoxhunter
Victoria Pendleton to win 66’sGrand Annual
Rock The World 14.5’s to 21’s
Workbench 70’s to 100’s
Mr Mole 80’sMidlands National
Mad Brian 20’s Each Way
Upswing 14’s
Standing Ovation 25’s Each WayGrand National
Ballycasey 300’s
Bears Affair 140’s to 330’s
Bless The Wings 510’s
Boston Bob 140’s to 190’s
Cause of Causes 36’s to 38’s
Dare To Endeavour 430’s
Double Ross 250’s to 260’s
Emperors Choice 230’s
First Lieutenant 110’s
Gilgambea 160’s
Midnight Prayer 310’s to 360’s
Mon Parrain 140’s to 160’s
Pendra 220’s to 580’s
Rule The World 110’s to 180’s
Valseur Lido 100’s to 150’sWell, after the disaster of last year, I’m very happy to make it to Day 1 with a profit on the day before a balls kicked, and don’t intend to delve into that profit too much. I’m just going to enjoy it now, with a few small bets here and there, so trying to find something to top up my A/P bets. I’ll start of with the big race of the day, The Champion Hurdle.
Champion Hurdle
Really looking forward to this, and after 3 years without a decent bet on the race, that trends going to continue, with only my “fun” bet on Sign Of A Victory, and my very ill-advised bet on Peace and Co, which I only put on because I highlighted the Skybet Offer. Even if he happened to win, I’d still struggle to justify betting him. I just can’t see him figuring.My money would be on Annie Power if having a play. Ok, she’s 0/2 at The Festival, and as I said in previous post, it seems stupid to give her a lofty nickname like “The Mare”
but the 7lb swing really should make a huge difference, and if not for the “certainties” I have on my side, I’d be including her in a few perms. Of the rest, well I’ve already nailed my colours to the mast, and once mine have been swept aside, I’ll be cheering on The New One. I also quite like the idea of Lil Rockerfeller, and he’s my kind of price. I could see him surprising a few people.
Bet – No BetSupreme
Never a big betting race for me, and again, this trend has continued, with barely a fiver parted with Ante-Post on Winter Escape, and Itsafreebee, who’re both absent.I don’t know what to make of Min, but for every punter who’s went with him purely based on connections, there’s a decent judge who can make a very good case for him. I’ve heard some very good cases put forward for him. I’ll happily leave him alone, and if he’s as good as some say, then I’ll sit back and admire. I nearly bet Altior last week when he was around 7’s, 8’s, but I just don’t bet A/P at this price, but I do like the way he did at Kempton, and he looks a very promising animal.
There seems to plenty others loitering in there as well, and I think it’s as strong a Supreme as I can remember. Cannot wait until it kicks off.
If I do decide to get involved with anything, it’ll be very small stakes on either Mister Miyagi, or William H Bonney, but common sense will stop that lol
Bet – No BetArkle
A race that always makes me go “meh”, usually one of the least intriguing races of The Festival, and this year looks no different. For some reason managed to get a profit on it, no idea how I managed that, but I’ll take it. I’ll hopefully get some EW Return from Sizing John, be gutted if he doesn’t make the 3, but other than that, looking for the performance of the week from Douvan.
Bet – No BetUltima Handicap
Got myself in a nice position in this race Ante-Post with a very nice lay on Minella Rocco, followed by a smaller lay on Cause of Causes.My main bets have been on Holywell & Fingal Bay, with further lossers with Midnight Prayer, Upswing & Salubrious.
Fingal Bay was a long term fancy, but just not to be be, though at least I had the comfort of knowing he wasn’t going long before the final decs. That leaves me with Holywell at 16’s, coincidentally the same price when he gave me a proper long term coup in this a couple of years ago. He looks cert for a big run, and I’m hoping of a decent return.
Looking for another though, and The Young Master is very much on the shortlist.
Of the others, well Shanahans Turn will like the going, but may need to come down a couple of pounds, though when in the mood, he is very good. Impossible to rule out. Morning Assembly is another Irish Raider who looks well treated on old form, but it’s another Irish runner I’m definitely siding with, and it’s Spring Heeled. Has previous Festival form, having won the 2014 Kim Muir, and he’ll love the drying conditions. Not the worst treated, and a repeat of his close second in The Munster National puts him bang there, and I’m happy to forgive him his subsequent runs on unsuitable softer ground. 25’s is huge.
The chances of Out Sam & Kruzhlinin are well documented also, but the other home pair of Beg To Differ & Caroles Destrier appeal to me just as much at a bigger price. Probably worth noting that Caroles Destrier has had a Wind Op, and I can’t confidently rule out Regal Encore either.
My second biggest bet of the season was an each way go on Double Ross at 33’s for The Paddy Power, and he did me proud, leading as they headed for home, on ground he would have waited. I think another big run is due, and he might just be my third arrow in the race, especially with it drying quickly, and 40’s being readily available
That doesn’t even paint half the picture with this race, as tough as ever, but Holywell 16’s Ante-Post, and Spring Heeled Each Way 25’s 5 places for me just now. I may add another…………who am I kidding, I’ll definitely be adding another.
That was a shameless copy and paste job from the race thread itself, and having gone through the field again, it looks rock solid, and there’s not one runner there I’d be happy to write off, but went for a couple anyway to go with Holywell.
Bet – Spring Heeled 28’s, and Double Ross 50’s, both 5 places EWMares Hurdle
No real interest, and I’ll be cheering on Vroum Vroum Mag, who went straight into my long term Lucky 31 way back last April, and good to see she’s made it………….unfortunately she’s no made it to The Ryanair. Edit – Keppols Queen looks a bit overpriced to me, and might risk a small ew bet at 50’s, but I’ll decide nearer the off.
Bet – No BetNational Hunt Chase
The last 2 runnings of this have gave me very decent returns, though this is unlikely to continue with my A/P play, Vintage Vinnie.I put up Minella Rocco for this months ago (though in the interest of balance, I also put him up for everything bar the boat race) and it’s good to see he’s made it. I’ve not done nearly as many A/P Mug 15’s, 31’s this year, but I do have a couple with Rocco at 10’s and 14’s, so hopeful he can kick them off as this is the only race of Day 1 that features on them. Looked perfect for this in The Reynoldstown, and with a Top Jock booked up, and from connections who know how to win this, he looks a worthy favourite.
Noble Endeavour just missed out on giving me a much needed winner at last years festival, when going down narrowly to Kilultagh Vic, and he looks primed for a big run here. Kept an eye on him all winter, and he’s been brought along nicely. Deserves his place at the front of the market, and Jamie Codd who easily land this for the second year on the trot.
Best renewal of this for some time, and there’s dangers lurking everywhere, with particular interest in Measureofmydreams & Ballychorus.
Cracking race in prospect.
Bet – Minella Rocco, or Noble Endeavour………..or both.Close Brothers Novices
No interest from an A/P view as got my money back after Thomas Crapper was balloted out.Again, this looks a potentially decent field, and a race I’m really looking forward to. I’m still working my way through it, changing my mind every 5 minutes. I’ve taken a chance on Twelve Roses at 33’s, though I’ll definitely be betting another one or 2 as well, with Ballyalton & McKinley looking the most likely at the moment. That could easily change.
Bet – Twelve Roses 28’s each wayWell, that’s my thoughts on Day 1, really can’t wait for it to kick off now, and for the 3 of you who, who’ll actually read this, very best of luck with all your bets tomorrow, and hope you get off to a flier
National Hunt Chase
Minella Rocco, Noble Endeavour, Vintage Vinnie
50p Combination Exactas & Trifectas-£1116.09
Think you might have been unlucky in the National Hunt chase there… Noble was staying on when it fell two out!!
Well, went into Day 1 ahead, and good to come out the other side with 2 winners, in Minella Rocco & Ballyalton. Unbelievably got Minella Rocco at 12.5’s before the off, and got 14’s on Ballyalton, so chuffed to bits. Also very happy with my Each Way return on Sizing John, it’s a fair old while since I stuck that bet on. The Race wasn’t really a contest though, with Douvan never really getting much of a sweat.
All bets today were courtesy of Carlingford Lough, as I spent the day laying off my Gold Cup wager on him, so definitely my best Day 1 since 2012, and last year is already a distant memory thankfully.
Screamed the house down for Holywell, but he just couldn’t fight off the Pipe horse, but gave me a proper run for my money. Double Ross gave me a thrill for a while as well, just love that horse. It goes without saying though that my biggest bet of the day was Spring Heeled, and he was f*****g awful. I’m sure I’m not the only one who gets phone call after phone call looking for tips at this time of year, and the only one I gave out was Spring Heeled FFS.
The sting in the tale today though was Altior, Douvan, Vroum Vroum Mag & Annie Power winning, as I’d said I fancied them all, they really should have been in a Super Heinz. Though if I’m being honest, Twelve Roses & Spring Heeled would have been in there ahead of Holywell & Ballyalton.
Find it a little absurd that people were surprised that Annie Power won in the style she did, I’d have been more surprised if she didn’t, and I wish I was a different kind of punter, as that price was ridiculous.
Good to see Vroum Vroum winning, though this year has proved more than ever, that The Mares Race has no right to be included in The Festival Line Up. They’ll have to have a look at it. Next thing we know they’ll be having a Novice Race for mares.
Oh yeah, and one last word. Vautour.
Well, onto Day 2, and I’ll have an interest in every race, as for once, my Ante-Post selections have all made it. Won’t be going mad, as a couple of them are for decent returns, and already of the opinion I’m going to jinx them by even discussing them. No doubt a few NR’s when I wake up in the morning lol.
As with Day 1, I’ll start off with the big race of the day, and on Day 2, it’s The RSA.
RSA
Well, my favourite horse in training, Seeyouatmidnight takes his chance, though I’m not sure this is the race for him. I’d much prefer he’d have went for The JLT, but I’ll be more than happy for him to prove me wrong obviously. I think this trip will just stretch him, especially against a strong field, but you never know. I’ll be in the pub watching it, and if he goes close I may get ejected, as I’ll no doubt lose the plot. On at 34’s to 40’s, so fingers crossed.Main dangers are obviously No More Heroes & More Of That, though I think Vyta Du Roc might surprise a few people, that Reynoldstown win looks even better tonight. I’ll not bet him, as I’ll stay loyal to “Midnight”, though gun to my head, Vyta wins it.
Very strong line up, and a case could be made for them all.
Bet – No Bet.Neptune
I find it impossible to split Yanworth & Yorkhill, so very definitely a race to sit back and enjoy, though Vigil does look fair price.
I’ve got a few quid on Itsafreebee @ 66’s EW Ante-Post, so I definitely won’t be going in again, and happy to have him running for me for a bit of fun.
Bet – No BetCoral Cup
I’ll definitely have a few on my side, though just a case of picking them out the huge field, which is obviously dead easy. I’ve came up with Call The Cops, Avant Tout, The Romford Pele, & Beast Of Burden. Call The Cops looks place material off his lofty mark, but he’s got Festival Form, and that counts for a lot. 33’s with 5 places seems fair. Beast of Burden requires a bit of faith, but there’s an engine there, the trainer normally has a winner here, and there’s no fences to get in his way.
Bet – Call The Cops, and Beast Of Burden both EW 5 or 6 Places depending on price.Champion Chase
No real interest in this race, as Un De Sceaux should take care of it.Depsite my lack of interest in this race, I will have a play though, and it’ll be Sizing Granite, who looks too big at 33’s on his type of ground.
Bet – Sizing Granite Each WayCross Country.
Rossvoss was big winner for me in December, and I then re-invested a lot of those winnings on him for The Paddy Power, in fact he was my biggest bet of the season, but sadly never sighted. I’ve taken another chance though, as he did win me a few quid, and I’ve got him at 120’s Ante-Post for this. No more on the day, as no idea how he’ll take to it, though at those odds I don’t have to.I seem to be on Quantitativeeasing every year for this. He’s the costliest horse I’ve ever followed, and I keep coming back for more lol. He would have won this last year but for getting carried out, and he’s worth another go.
Rivage D’or, who benefitted from QE’s misfortune when he won this last year, is back for another go, and with him being a previous winner, I’ll be putting a decent bet on him Each Way, he’s a big price.
Bet – Quantitativeeasing (Win) & Rivage D’or (EW)Bumper
I’ve bet Battleford Each Way A/P, and if I have any joy during the day, I’ll go in again, as he’s still a very fair price.
Bet – Battleford (possibly)That’ll do for Day 2 then, and hopefully any bets will be paid for once again by Carlingford Lough
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