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lol Jac, I was referring to my “book” on The Ryanair this year which was dire, I lost a few quid. Thankfully I was only down a few quid for The National beforehand, as I quit my “book” early when it was clear I couldn’t green out. It had a very healthy look to it at the end of the race haha.
Well, what can I say, Thursday was a distant memory come the end of play yesterday.
Things didn’t start too well with At Fishers Cross. With not as many getting bet yesterday, my stakes were a bit bigger, and I had a decent amount each way on him, and I was sure he had got up to get 4th. Was gutted when the result came through, and Murryana had held on.
I had a good go on Al Co at 28’s in the 3 miler, and thought he was going to do it, but he just couldn’t see it out. Still a very decent return for me, and was very happy.
On to the big one. I’ve only ever bet the winner 3 times, Seagram, Party Politics, and Neptune Collonges. My record in it is questionable, though Double Seven and Seabass were big winners for me in recent years, getting placed.
I went to the trouble of mentioning the places for my picks, and stupidly put 5 instead of 6, so I actually had Vics Canvas & Ucello Conti for 6 places (sorry for this kind of aftertiming)
Coming to the last, and I have both of them in contention, along with Rule The World, and also Gilgamboa at 160’s. I had a houseful yesterday, as I always have for The National, and it went mental as they were all in contention. I’d explained beforehand to my mates that I had a few on Betfair for very big returns, and the language got a bit colourful lol.
Vics Canvas would have been a fantastic winner as it was “on the day” but to rescue that aborted “book” with Rule The World at 110’s to 180’s, was awesome, and he became my third biggest win ever
Words can’t describe it. It’s the biggest day of the year for me, and I’ll struggle to top that in the race in future. The Exacta would have been the icing on the cake. Happy, happy days. Forgive me this wee bit of self indulgence, but to have a big winner on The National means the world to me, not to mention the ew returns on Vics Canvas & Ucello Conti.That all horses came back safe was just the icing on the cake.
On to the last then, and with a good few quid in my pocket, I had 2 proper bets on Ivan Grozny & Boite, both EW, and they did the business.
Quite simply my best Aintree ever. I dread to think how badly I’ll do next year
“Rule The World 110’s to 180’s
Vics Canvas 100’s 5 Places”Top tipping Vtc.
I can see your angle on Rule the world Bob,he’s a horse me and TommyTHM have bought over the years but Vics Canvas?? he was the first horse I discarded as a 13yo though did run well in the whitbread last year with Ruby on.Congrats all the same a deserved success pal.I wont be backing ‘Shutthefrontdoor’next year though he could be a Whitbread horse.
Thanks for that Gord.
Yeah, if you’d told me at the start of the week I’d be with Vics Canvas, I’d have laughed at you. The plan was always going to be Ucello Conti, Ballynagour, and one of the Curtis horses, but as soft ground loomed that changed.
He showed he was as good as ever in The Becher, I bet him in that, I also had money on him at Sandown last April. I’ve bet him 4 times I think over the last couple of years, so know him fairly well, and was “fairly” confident he’d give me a run for my money at a big price. I really thought he was going to do it.
Yeah, STFD has gone off the boil abit. I’d give him a spin round in The Fixed Brush Hurdle at Haydock, as an intro to next season, and take it from there.
With Punchestown looming, good to see a few of these getting an entry, with only Sutton Place & Ivan Grozny not amongst the entries. Sutton Place looks very much like one to keep in mind for next season. Ivan Grozny has already repaid me in spades at Aintree, so hopefully he’ll be having a rest now, after Ayr.
Love this Festival more and more each season, and after Cheltenham, Aintree, and The Open Meeting, it’s my favourite of the season.
Going on about my fancies each day, seemed to bring me a bit of luck at Cheltenham and Aintree, so I’ll give it a bash here. After easily my second most successful season ever, my main focus will be getting rid of that chunky “minus figure” on this thread, and got to give it a bash
. It will not be easy.Day 1
1540. I bet Enniskillen here in January at 100’s, and was very confident that he was massively overpriced. Confident enough to put him up on Nathans “100-1+ Sports Bet” thread. He was absolutely cantering when unseating 3 or 4 from home. I was absolutely gutted, but round here again, he’s well worth another go. One of 4 or 5 horses I’ve done really well with the last couple of years betting to lay in running, how I’ll approach him tomorrow will depend on the price. He certainly won’t be 100’s this time.
1620. Yorkhill, despite making heavy weather of it at Aintree, should be too good in this, and he’s a horse I’ve a lot of time for, especially as he did the business for me at Cheltenham. One I do like at a price though is Brain Power who runs for Nicky Henderson. He’s not been that impressive so far, but I just thought at Musselburgh that he looked to have more to offer than he actually showed. He’ll have to step up to even beat Charbel, but at 33’s, I had to have a go, and he was screaming at me to have a go each way. Should be Yorkhills to lose though.
1655.
Shanpallas is a horse who proved me wrong a couple of years back, when running well in The Kerry National. He then went on to land The Munster National, and having been bought by JP, I thought he looked like an ideal candidate for Aintree. That seems miles from what connections have in mind though, and he’s been seen sparingly, mainly running at around 2 and a half miles. Big fan of him though, and though, on paper, this spin over hurdles looks like a prep for something else, he’s dangerous to write off. He’s very decent, as he showed in the 2014 Paddy Power, and last years Galway Plate, and I think he can put in a bold show here, en-route to another crack at that big summer prize at Galway.I went for The Tricast in this last year, and I had the 2, 3, 4. It was a tough one to take. Macnicholson was one of those 3, finishing second, and despite his big weight, he’s hard to keep out of this, and I’ll be betting him as well, along with his stablemate, Modem, who should also go close.
I’ll be betting all 3 of them in this.
1730. This looks all about Vautour, but at 100’s, I have to give Baily Green another chance, albeit each way. That 100’s look solid value to me. Finished second in this last year, he went very close, and he’s coming back off a solid run at The Festival, where he looked a big danger in The Plate, before just failing to see out the trip. He’s been something of a “nearly” horse over the last few years. He should have won The 2013 Arkle, when he had the beating of Simonsig, but the jockey didn’t seem to believe it, and could have won the 2014 Champion Chase, when he was absolutely running all over them, but tipped up at the big ditch at the top of the hill.
There’s plenty of poor runs in there as well, but at this price he’s worth the risk, and just need an off day from a couple of them, and I can easily see him outrunning those odds.
1805. Jenkins looked absolutely dynamite at Newbury, and with Patrick Mullins on board for Nicky Henderson, I’ll be very disappointed if he doesn’t land this. He’s surely got a bright future. He’ll no doubt be too short to bet on his own, so he’ll be one for perms only, and I may even sit back and enjoy without at bet on him.
I’ll be hoping for bigger prices on the Jessica Harrington pair Loupgarou, and especially Ale Ambrosio, and I’ll definitely take a risk on the pair of them.
1840. My Grand National hero, Rule The World, turns out again, despite talk of him being retired. I sincerely hope keeping him in training doesn’t come back to haunt them
He looks to have a live chance here, but off the back of that National victory, I’ll leave him alone, and still cheer him if he wins. He owes me nothing. I’ve got high hopes for Zabana, and though I think it’s next season where he’ll really thrive, it’s hard to leave him out of the 2 here. I’ll probably have a few quid on. I’ve already had a few quid on Ballychorus each way at 25’s, which looks massive. If she can stay on her feet, she must have some chance, as she looks as good as the majority of these, and that’s without her handy allowance. 1915. Someday looks impossible to leave out here, considering connections, and I hope he’s a decent price. If he’s not too short, I’ll definitely be having a go.
Big week ahead then, with some top notchers on show, and really looking forward to it.
First things first though, and got to to try and get rid of that damned “minus figure” before I wrap this thread up this weekend.
1450 Ayr
Goninodaethat, Jinky, Amber Crystal
50p Combination Exactas & Trifectas-£1388.20
Good luck today. I think it is a very difficult card if your bag is to essentially avoid backing shorties. It is also difficult to guess how much influence the rain is going to have.
The opener is a very low grade, albeit traditional event. I think for most best avoided.
Yorkhill should dot up. He would clearly be even shorter without his antics last time. If the rain stayed away Charbel would be second best.
Copy That looks the progressive one in the handicap but at 5/1? He has done all his winning without Geraghty. Ordinary World might sneak a place at a bigger price although he can take a tug and consequently sometimes doesn’t finish his races off. He appeared to be staying on pretty well when coming down last time. Rain staying away would probably help his cause.
Vautour should be another short priced winner. I was a bit disappointed with the way Clarcam folded at Aintree and the rain will probably scupper any chance of him outrunning his price.
I don’t like backing Flat breds in bumpers but Jenkins bolted up first time and you have to think a reproduction would be good enough. They are outsiders but Guitar George is from one of the best jumping families and Ale Ambrosio is by recently deceased Big Bad Bob from another decent jumping family.
It wouldn’t surprise me who won the novice chase as I don’t think there is a standout in the race.
A few interesting newcomers in the bumper including Lleyton, Runfordave and Someday. At the prices I would prefer Lleyton but the trainer gets very few bumper winners and his pedigree would suggest he wouldn’t want much rain.
Thanks stilvi.
Yeah, as ever, a very tricky looking card, and should the shorties all win, then bar a few each way returns, I’ll be doing well not to lose. As you say, probably advisable to get a handle on how much the rain has got in.
Yup, the first looks one to avoid, but I just can’t resist, while if Yorkhill doesn’t win, it will be a major shock.
Both those you mention in the big handicap hurdle, terrify me, but my money’s down, so fingers crossed.
Really looking forward to it though, win or lose, and hoping for a big show from Jenkins.
Well hard to believe I could have got much more wrong other than the general idea that it was a difficult punting day.
Charbel made one mistake but even allowing for that it was a dreadfully tame effort. He is a Flat bred but it would be disappointing if his career had already hit reverse.
Robbie Colgan appeared to be trying to steer Ordinary World up the back of most runners in the field but for a fleeting moment still appeared to be travelling well only to stop to absolutely nothing. That was his last chance saloon as far as I am concerned.
The plot horse turning over Jenkins left a very sour taste. Only an insider could have backed the winner who had clearly shown nothing like that form on his two previous starts. It seems very lame that all the Stewards can do is ask for an explanation for the improvement.
Hopefully, tomorrow can’t be any worse.
Fingers crossed for you tomorrow stilvi, it was a a very tough day.
If I had been on Ordinary World, I would have been getting hopeful, but as you said, he just didn’t produce. As for Jenkins, I was initially disappointed, then like yourself, a bit miffed at the plot horse doing him.
I actually ended up slightly ahead, but that was all down to laying, and a wee bit of good fortune, rather than any particularly good calls.
In the first, Enniskillen proved yet again, that if he stays on his feet, he’s pretty reliable round here. Had him at 14’s beforehand, and made a profit from a lay I had put in before the race started, but just slightly annoyed that he went a couple of points lower near the end. Happy to get a few quid back from him again though, and he remains one to keep in mind for betting to lay in running.
The next 2 races got me a good few quid back, with Brain Power, and Shanpallas going so low in running that I thought there was something wrong with my TV. They never looked like landing it to me at any point to be honest.
Happy enough with Brain Power, and was more than happy to get a few quid from him, having snapped up 40’s pre-race.
The next race was even better though. I cooled on Modem beforehand, and had a lot more on Machnicolson & Shanpallas. Did my dough with Machnicholson, with him going at the second, and I really did fancy him a lot. I loaded up on Shanpallas at 46’s and 48’s, and got all my cash back when he went very low. A good bit of fortune, as I really don’t think he ever looked the winner. Got a few pounds back each way as I had him 5 places as well, so somehow a profitable race for me with a fifth, a faller, and an unplaced. Shanpallas looks like one to keep in mind for The Galway Plate, it was a fine run over an inadequate distance.
Then the wheels came off a wee bit. I had a bit too much on Baily Green in the next, heart ruling the head, and I got a bit greedy…………and got my just desserts, as he ran just like you’d expect a 100-1 shot to run.
I’d no money at all on Jenkins in the next, but was still hoping for a big show, but not to be. Only a small bet on Loupgarou, but had a bit more on Ale Ambrosio, and both came up well short.
Two going for me in the next, with Zabana saving my skin. I really like this horse, and think he’ll claim some big prizes next season. As for Ballychorus, as I said, if she stayed on her feet, she had some chance, but her jumping continues to be sketchy to say the least, and after looking very awkward at a good few, she eventually got rid of O’Regan down the back. I won’t be backing her again, till I see her jumping improve, or evidence that they’ve actually schooled her (some fine pocket talking there lol).
With a few quid ahead going into the last, I was fairly confident about Someday, and bet half my winnings on him, but he bumped into a good one of WPM’s, but at least no real excuses.
Happy to escape with a profit today, albeit a small one. One winner, and three lays is nothing to write home about, got enough wrong to be a bit more wary going into day 2.
On to Day 2, and treading very carefully after a tough first day.
1540 Torn between Candlestick, and Minella Berry in this. Canndlestick very much looked the part the last time, and Minella Berry, forgiven his last run, was a fair winner the time before, and off a break, I can see a bold show. Would be fairly confident of a run for my money from the pair of them. Also, at a push, I’m struggling to rule out the other “Minella”, Minella Scamp, and he may get a small bet on him as well. I’ll definitely be taking advantage of the 5 places here, and already had a few quid on the main 2.
Bet – Candlestick, Minella Berry, and Minella Scamp, all 5 places Each Way.1620 If I get a return off the first, then I’ll have a few quid on Woodland Opera, but if not, then I’ll probably swerve this one, as no strong view on most of them.
Bet – No Bet1655 It’s very, very rarely, that I lay horses, other than those I’ve already bet. I’m pretty sure I went all of last season without doing it, but this season, I’ve layed 3 times, and one of those was Bellshill. I layed him in January for both The Supreme & The Neptune at short odds, and I didn’t have much to worry about. I didn’t (obviously) rate him at all, but after not considering him for Aintree, he really surprised me, and he looked a much better horse for the step up in trip. Don’t see any reason why he can’t go close again, and I’d expect him to go close. He won’t have my cash on him though, as I’m chancing Sandymount Duke. Big step up for him, but looks to have been kept for this, and I can see him running well for a long way. I’ll be looking to bet him beforehand, to lay in running, but I’ve already had a go at the 25’s each way as well.
Bet – Sandymount Duke 25’s EW, and also to lay in running.1730 I won’t be having a bet in this in any shape or form. I’ll be sitting back and cheering on Cue Card.
Bet – No Bet1805 – Battleford did the business for me at Cheltenham with decent place money, and he didn’t do too much wrong at Aintree either. He’s not really my type of price, and undecided whether to get involved or not. All about next season with him, and I won’t be too disheartened if he doesn’t land it. Faces some tough opposition is Moon Racer, and his Aintree victor, Bacardys.
Bet – Battelford (50/50)1840 – I said this about Captain Conan, on The Topham thread…..
Captain Conan hasn’t won for 3 years, though to be fair, he hasn’t been seen much since then, with him having had his fair share of problems. First impressions would suggest that he’s one to swerve, but he’s absolutely crashed down the weights, and this, I believe is his first foray into handicaps. He ran well for a long way last time in The Ryanair, and this would be a slightly different proposition off of 143, having just ran against the likes of Vautour off levels. Very interesting.
He didn’t trap there, taking a few quid of mine with him, but I think, what I said about him in The Topham, very much applies here, and he’ll be my biggest bet of the day definitely. 16’s each way looks fair to me. I’ll have more on if he goes bigger, and should he drift, I’ll try a bet to lay as well. Irish Cavalier has had a stop-start campaign, but I do think he’s decent on his day, and I’ve had a few quid at 10’s each way.
Bet – Captain Conan 16’s, and Irish Cavalier 10’s both each way, and possibly Captain Conan bet to lay.1915 Should leave this race well alone, but Forge Meadow looks pretty strong, whilst Copper Kay is way overpriced at 12’s. My outsider of the day is Tobouggaloo at 33’s, and I think he could surprise a few. How much I stake will depend on how the day goes.
Bet – Forge Meadow (win), Copper Kay & Tobouggaloo (both each way)I think anything in the plus column was a good result yesterday.
Today’s opener makes yesterday’s look something of a walk in the park. John Nallen must have made a fortune from buying these well bred stores and selling them on. Most show initial promise then develop into next-to-nothing. I have risked the Scamp today together with Poker School. Steamboat Bill looked a tough ride last time and I suspect he might need a stiffer test.
Supasundae should go close if he stays but have risked Woodland Opera. Not the first time he has been backed and hopefully the better ground will help.
Was going to back Acapella Bourgeois but little faith in the jockey so all eggs in one basket with Coney Island. Seemed very well suited by step up trip and seems likely to improve again. Should be quite a pace battle here. Backed Emerging Force last time but he gave the strong impression he wants a stiffer test.
Fingers crossed for Cue Card but he has done considerably more than Vautour and Yorkhill and look what happened to them. Fences still a concern for me.
Gone with Moon Racer (unfortunately already two Rule 4’s) in the belief that last years crop may be better than this years. Rather missed the boat on the price but also had a little on Presenting Percy. He looks a promising sort who might be even better on the quicker ground. Just a shame about the jockey booking.
Irish Cavalier was a class act but on recent efforts, albeit at a much better level, it will be difficult to concede weight to those closer to the bottom of the handicap. Too difficult for my pin.
I thought Tearsofclewbay was the best filly in the Sandown race and willing to give her another chance. Unfortunately, have little knowledge of the jockey. Tobouggaloo has presumably been saved for this and could outrun her price. Drying ground should help her cause.
Good luck.
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