- This topic has 256 replies, 18 voices, and was last updated 8 years, 4 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Darren, as I’ve mentioned before, more than once, it’s just The Open I bet on in the golf, so no, I won’t be having a bet.
hurry up bob it starts tomorrow
Any views on races at aintree apart from national
SIZING JOHN
LA VACTINIEAny views on scottish national i like SEGO SUCCESS 20/1 so far
Didn’t see it Misky, I’ll have a look later as just a flying visit for me.
PS welcome to TRF
It didn’t do me any harm looking at the races beforehand at Cheltenham, so I’ll give it a bash at Aintree.
I love Aintree, and The National, being the biggest race of the season, is a big deal to me. As I’ve said both on here, and on The National thread itself, my “book” on The National has been poor this season, and I find myself armed with a few who’re hard to make a case for. Deciding to reduce my stakes this year has been a godsend, one of my better decisions, and most importantly, I got my stakes back today for my 3 biggest bets, Cause of Causes, Midnight Prayer, and Amigo. I’m very very happy right now, and that book has a whole different look to it now. Happy Days!!! I’ll look at my National Runners tomorrow.
I rarely do that well at Aintree, but more than willing to give it a bash. The Friday of last years meeting was brilliant for me, but I’ve had some seriously sore days round here on Day 1.
1340
Sizing John has been a good horse to follow this season, and he gave me a decent ew return in The Arkle. Looks to have a solid chance here today, though undecided whether to back him on his own or not, as he’s shorter than I normally bet. He’ll certainly make the perms. Rock The World was another ew winner for me at The Festival, and he’s a horse I really like, one of my main horses to follow this season. He looks way overpriced at 12’s, and I’ll definitely be betting him.1415
Romain De Senam, or rather the jockey, cost me a really good lift @ 40’s in The Fred Winter, but he’s another who at least gave me a few quid back for the place. Hoping for a more prominent ride today, currently 16’s, and think that’s a fair price for a horse who could easily make the frame here.1450
I’d love to see Cue Card win, but in a race, where outsiders aren’t really the way to go, I’ll take a chance on Wakanda & Taquin De Seuil. 66’s and 33’s at the moment, I’ve got have a go. Wakanda was my biggest bet for The Gold Cup, but he didn’t even get an entry. I think he’s worth another go, and willing to forgive him his last run. I forgave Sternrubin one bad run at Cheltenham, and he repaid my faith, so hoping for a repeat here. Taquin is unpredictable, but worth a go at that price, as he’s looked as good as ever after his “break”, and is Jonjo’s only runner today. Just the small matter of some quality horses against them lol.1525
Annie Power should romp it…………..no bet in this.1605
On The Fringe & Pacha Du Polder should take a strong hand here, and the chances of both can only be bolstered by the jockey bookings today, and they’re hard to oppose. In a wretched race for me though, I’ll have small bets on a couple of outsiders, Clonbanan Lad & Sam Cavallaro, at around 50’s and 100’s. Clonbanan Lad looked destined for good things a couple of years back, but never really got there. A winner last time out, could see him sneak a place. Sam Cavallaro is a “system” horse of mine, and was in good form last year. Not asked too many questions last time, and despite up against it here, he’s better than that run.1640
Croco Bay was travelling very well when he came down in The Grand Annual, and Workbench gave me a good spin in the same race. I’d be very confident of both getting involved here at around 20’s and 14’s, and I’ll have a go on both of them. The rank outsider Aye Well, won in good style last time, and though this is way tougher, at 33’s and upwards, he’s worth an ew go.1715
At the moment, no bet, but if I can get a few quid back today, I’ll take a chance with Theatre Territory at around 20’s.That earlier sentence about my record here was about all I got right on Day 1, and there can’t be another day in the calendar where I do so consistently badly.
The only positive was that it was mainly small bets, bar Rock The World, and the 1640.
First bet up was Rock The World, I had a few quid on, and he was very poor, though if he re-appears in a handicap at Punchestown, I’ll be all over him, he’s much better than he showed today.
This was followed by Romain De Senam. Small ew bet, and he was well beaten, but so was the rest of the field, and the winner looked awesome, so no shame in that result.
I had another couple of small bets on Wakanda and Taquin De Seuil, and both beaten out of sight. The one consolation is that I’ve obviously overrated Wakanda, and I’ll wait to catch him in a handicap next season, as that’s his level, and I’d be confident of getting my cash back on him. Cue Card was awesome though, and great to see him romp it.
No bet in The Aintree Hurdle, and Annie Power romped it, which wasn’t hard to predict, and once again showing that 7lb allowance rule to be an utterly absurd one.
Was getting very excited in The Foxhunter, had Clonbanan Lad ew 66’s, and a couple of pounds on at 150’s. The poor boy was lobbing along nicely when he broke down badly. Such a shame, and he was nailed on to place. Hope it was quick for him. He wouldn’t have beaten the winner though, no way, and with Jamie Codd up, he was always going to be hard to beat.
On to the 1640, and had a decent couple of bets on Croco Bay, and Workbench, and both were very disappointing, I expected big runs from both of them. The only silver lining was that my poor day meant I avoided backing Theatre Territory in the last
I’ll be treading very carefully on Day 2.
Well I’m hoping things go better today, but I’m not 100% confident. Wasn’t exactly a bloodbath financially, but a couple of runs for my money would have been nice.
1340
Theinval, who I put up for Aintree a few weeks ago, takes his chance, and tries to win this for the second year on the trot. He doesn’t have Jeremiah McGraths 3lb claim this this time around, but he does look fairly treated, and he looks a massive price at 25’s. He was a very big winner for me in this last year, and my double with him and his stablemate Rajdhani Express, resulted in one of my best ever days at Aintree. To be fair, there hasn’t been that many. I don’t think McGrath was too hard on him at Cheltenham when his chance was gone, and for a 25-1 shot, I’m very confident of a place. Of those at the head of the market, Tycoon Prince, looks a particularly big danger, but I’ll probably take a chance on Ibis Du Rheu & Sky Khan as well. Ibis was a big priced winner for me at Cheltenham, and I don’t see why he can’t go close again. Sky Khan ran a blinder in the same race, and the trainer has a good record at this course.1415
Limini should be too strong here…………..No Bet.1450
Ballyalton was another decent performer for met at Cheltenham, and, potentially, his future could lie outwith handicaps, with plenty of scope for progression. Impossible to ignore, and I’ll be with him and Henri Parri Morgan, who looks equally progressive. Both fair prices.1525
Vautour should win this in a stroll………….No Bet.1605
I’ve went for Mr Moonshine, Dromnea, and Corrin Wood at big prices here, and said my piece on the Race Thread in “Big Races Discussion”Turban, and particularly Top Cat Henry, now Waley-Cohen is booked, look huge dangers, as does the rock solid Bennys Mist.
1640
Might take a chance on Ballyoptic who’s going the right way, in a race that might not be that strong. If things go well in the earlier races, might just go with Potters Legend as well.1715
All about Battleford for me, and he did me proud at Cheltenham. It’s very, very rare for me to bet under 5’s, but if that price holds, 11-4, I’ll maybe stick my neck out.Could be a “heart ruling the head” day for me, as many of these have won me a few quid this year, even Potters Legend has been good to me. If things are as bad as yesterday, I’ll console myelf that these guys have been good to me in the past lol.
Much better today, well couldn’t have been much worse than yesterday.
Sky Khan, finishing 3rd at 25’s in the first was a godsend, and he gave me a profit in the race. He’s likeable enough, and I’ll make a note to look out for him next Spring. Theinval was a disappointment again, and he was my biggest bet of the day. No real excuses either.
No bet in the second race, and was a bit disappointed with Limini, thought I’d see a decent horse today.
Henri Parri Morgan kept me ahead in the 1450, I managed to nab the 14’s. Only sting in the tail was Native River winning, with me adding Otago Trail to the Exacta at the last minute in preference to the Tizzard horse. Dammit.
That Native River really hit a switch with me today, I was very impressed. First instinct is National, but the owners aren’t known for runners over the fences. It may just be that we seen a very good animal today, and I already have my eye on him for next year. I think he could be a Gold Cup horse, and already looks tailor made for one of the big handicaps en-route. I think he’s better than The Charlie Hall, and if he were mine, it would be Hennessy, or the big handicap at Ascot in December first.
Vautour was just one of those things, and very glad not to have a bet in the race.
The Topham was a huge letdown, I really fancied Mr Moonshine, and I had a good go at him Ante-Post. I didn’t want to jinx him by overdoing how much I was keen on him, but he was a strong fancy. It didn’t make any difference haha.
The 1640 was much better, with Ballyoptic saving the day, not to mention Potters Legend nabbing me my ew returns. Great race for me, and good to finish any day at Aintree with a profit. A real rarity. It would have been hard to take if Bellshill had got up. I very very rarely lay horses, unless I’m laying off one I’ve already bet, but I did lay Bellshill ante-post for 2 races at The Festival, and if he had held on, I’d have been gutted.
Just behind after 2 days, only a few quid though, and much more respectable after Day 1. I’ll tread very carefully tomorrow.
You layed my Bellshill, Vtc……..Wish we still had the mad devil emoticon
This one will have to do, guess which one you are?
I’m not too disappointed as had him each way at 9’s but the winner would of been great.
Blackbeard to conquer the World
lol Nathan, that looks f*****g sore!!!
I didn’t lay him today I promise, it was for the 2 Novice Hurdles at Cheltenham. I’ll be making sure to check your selections before I lay anything in the future haha!
Well the big day is here, and for the first time ever, I don’t really have a standout #1 fancy.
I probably like Rule The World the most out of my book, but that maiden tag he has is a worry, but regardless, I can see him doing better than his odds suggest.
Double Ross is a horse who has won me a lot of money over the last 2 years, and he was my third biggest bet of the season in The Paddy Power. He did the business that day, I had him at 33’s, and was great to see him get 4th, but on his return here in December, he seemed to hate it. Stamina a serious doubt, and very hard to fancy here, despite his running on 2nd to Pendra at Ascot.
Pendra is a hard one to weigh up. He was going to be the cornerstone of my book, as I was fairly confident, he’d come to the fore for this race, as the season progressed. It did not go to plan. After his Ascot win, he reportedly finished lame there next time, though he’s also reportedly been trained solely for this race. If it wasn’t for my early money on him, I wouldn’t even consider him. Having not laid off a bean, I’ll win a fortune if he wins, 3 times bigger than my previous single win on a horse, Will this happen? Erm, no!!!
Gilgamboa has a touch of class about him, but hard to make a case for him over this trip, though arguably one of the better horses in the race.
Of the 4 I put up as horses of interest, I’ve whittled it down to Ballynagour & Ucello Conti, and I’ve reluctantly left the Curtis pair, depsite her recent good form.
The 33’s is still there on Ucello Conti, and he still looks very backable, while Ballynagour still appeals at the prices. I just worry about the overnight rain for Ballynagour.
I’m going to take my chances on Vics Canvas at a huge price. I’ve bet him 4 times over the last 2 seasons, and if I’m going to bet an outsider, it might as well be him, he rarely runs a bad one. I’d hate him to win, and get the feeling I got when Eastlake won yesterday.
Final Picks then, and it’s…..
Ucello Conti 33’s ew 5 Places
Vics Canvas 100’s 5 Places
Rule The World 180’s
Pendra 330’s
Double Ross 480’sI couldn’t possibly not have a bet today, it’s the biggest race of the year, though a strange feeling not having a standout strong fancy.
Rule The World, Vics Canvas, and Ucello Conti look the standouts.
Here’s my thoughts on the field anyway….
Many Clouds
I still can’t believe he won last year off that mark, what a performance. Won’t figure this year though surely? Everything is against him in a significantly better renewal. Completely up against it, and if I was a layer, I’d be laying him all day. I’m also slightly uncomfortable, given his fragility after his races, that he’s been asked to do this again. We don’t help ourselves do we?Silviniaco Conti
Completely unsuitable race for him, and being asked to run in this off too high a mark, when he’s probably a low 150’s horse at best now, it just seems bizarre. It also seems completely unnecessary to run him in this. Won a shockingly bad Ascot Chase. No chance.First Lieutenant
Couldn’t get competitive last year off a much lower mark, and though there’s still a bit of a spark in him, hard to see him figure here.Wonderful Charm
One of the worst handicapped horses in training. No, one of the worst handicapped horses in the history of racing. Ignore.Ballynagour
I think he’s a live contender, but just worry about the recent rain. Other than that, loads going for him.O’Faolains Boy
I honestly think he’s got the ability to run a big race here. Couldn’t rule him out at all.Gilgamboa
Got to be given a serious chance. He’s a big price, and the only negative I can think of is the trip.On His Own
Cheated out of The 2014 Gold Cup when the stewards bottled it, and looked to retain ability till he bombed badly in The Gold Cup. Terrible record here, so one to ignore.The Druid’s Nephew
Gutted for him when he came down last year a few fences out. Not talking through my pocket, I didn’t bet him, but he would have won, no doubt about it. There’s just the niggling doubt that that was his chance. Higher in the weights now, and ground possibly against him, he’s hard to fancy.Triolo D’Alene
Topham Winner, and always being a likeable type, but still too high in the weights, and a no show two years back.Rocky Creek
Didn’t see it out two years ago, didn’t land a blow last year, woefully out of form, and must be difficult for connections to justify putting him through it again. Impossible to recommend.Sir Des Champs
On the face of it, he’s clearly not the horse he was, but he’s just too well weighted to comfortably write off. EDIT He’s very interesting to me, but jockey booking is a major negative, she’ll get him too far back, and on her booking alone, I’d be confident that that’s enough to put a line through him.Holywell – Although I’m not with him today, no secret what I think of him. Main negative for me, is that he’s been trained to the minute for Cheltenham, but I’m looking forward to seeing him. He’s very hard to write off, and I do fear him.
Shutthefrontdoor – Thought he ran a sound race last year, but that was probably his chance.
Soll – A real staple round here, and a smashing type, who should put in a clear round, but he’s just far too high in the weights to be considered.
Buywise
Another who seems to be completely unsuitable for this. Hard to find a positive. Very high in the weights for not winning, poor jumper, stamina doubts, and will get too far back. Did I miss anything?Boston Bob
From top yard, on a cracking mark, and got to be given a chance.Aachen
I was very keen on him earlier in the year for this, and though I’ve cooled a little, he should run his race, and looks overpriced.Morning Assembly
Very interesting Irish Raider, who’s got the assistance of Davie Russell in the saddle, and should run a big race.Double Ross
No secret what I think of him, and as good as most of these, but I have to be realistic, and his stamina can only be taken on trust. Didn’t like it in The Grand Sefton.Goonyella
Loads going for him here, and looks sure to be involved.Ucello Conti
I just keep watching that Thyestes run, and keep smiling. Perfect prep, and he’s an insane price, he’s got every chance.Unioniste
Early casualty last year, and possibly on the downgrade now.Le Reve
Hard to see him winning, but certainly one of the more interesting outsiders.Gallant Oscar
I’ve a lot of time for this one, and can see a big run. Very difficult to find a significant negative.Onenightinvienna
Very promising sort, but I’d tend to side with those who think this is too early for him. I’d go a bit further. It’s a strange choice of race for him.The Last Samuri
Just short of top drawer, he’s a very likeable sort, who’s impossible to leave out of the reckoning. Deserves his place at the front end of the market.Kruzhlinin
There’s certainly stamina doubts, and he’s already failed in this. Highly unlikely.Rule The World
If not for his injury setback, he’d probably be the best of this lot, to the extent he wouldn’t have went this route. He has went this route though, and leaving his maiden tag aside, he ticks every single other box, and he’s my tentative #1. He’s a crazy old price.Just A Par
Had his day in the sun last April at Sandown, but a disappointment since. Looks weighted out of this, and easy to look elsewhere.Katenko
Had the world at his feet three years ago, when he was the best Chaser on these shores. Potential superstar. Would have won The 2013 Gold Cup, no debate about it, but for Colic a fortnight before the race. Such a shame. However, it is three years on, he’s not come back, and he shouldn’t be running in this today. For the second time in this write up. We don’t help ourselves, do we?Vics Canvas
I’m not saying he’s going to win, but he’s got so much going for him here. He seems to be 100’s on the basis of his age alone, and I do get that….but 100-1? One of the best 100-1 shots you’re ever likely to see.Black Thunder
Thought him a National contender in the past, but hard to enthuse about today.Ballycasey
Expected not to stay, but I’d give him an outside chance. Certainly not a lost cause.Hadrians Approach
He’s got the ability, but it’s just his jumping. Certainly overpriced though, and not out of it, but will he get round?Vieux Lion Rouge
The hardest horse to weigh up. He looks to have potential, and got one of the best jockeys up. I’d sway towards him having a chance, but I’m not sure he seen out the 4 miles at Cheltenham either, so possible stamina doubts.Pendra
An early season fancy of mine. Got a few quid on him at big prices, but he looks to be up against it, and looks like an also ran already.Saint Are
Second last year, likes it round here, and on a decent mark, but last years was a particularly weak renewal, and might just struggle this time.Home Farm
No hoper, impossible to make a case for.The Romford Pele
Not the most obvious, but yard in form, and wouldn’t surprise me to see him run well.Not much other bets today.
For someone who likes their handicaps, the first race looks “trappy”, even for me, but I’ll take a chance on At Fishers Cross at a big price.
In the other handicap chase, I’m going for Al Co, who I reckon is “due”. He’s also a big price.
In the final race, I’ll be with Ivan Grozny, and he’s going to be a fairly big bet at 25’s, just insane that price. Why isn’t he favourite?
Grand National
Ucello Conti, Vic’s Canvas, Rule The World
50p Combination Exactas & Trifectas1810
Ivan Grozny, Boite
£1 Reverse Exacta-£1329
it’s not a “Ryanair” level of failure for me lol.
There’s something of the X-files or Enigma Code about your post Bobby
Well done with your summary and each way picks and your tricast
choices…so close. Hope you scooped up on Ivan Grozny today.
Jac
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.