- This topic has 99 replies, 5 voices, and was last updated 16 years, 2 months ago by
.
- Posts
Some interesting horses entered this week, especially on Saturday although I’m keeping my thoughts to myself on these until I’ve decided on my entries for Cormack’s Weatherby’s Book competition!
Stating with “The Bleeding Obvious”, that lovely mare FOR BILL should retain her unbeaten record without much trouble on Thursday in the 2.15 at Clonmel, I doubt if she’ll be much of a price though .
Less obvious is PRIVATE DEVELOPER in the Hunter Chase at the same meeting and he could run a big race at a very decent price if he gets in the race, big entry and as a maiden he’s well down the pecking order for a place in the field. He’s got outstanding place form in his three points against some very useful horses including a 5 lengths 3rd to Michael Flips the “Lanzarote”winner on his debut. He’s been off the course for 662 days which is worrying but he’s only a 6-Y-O and his trainer, John Paul Brennan has a 50% win record with his runners this season and is well capable of getting one ready first time out
My Bizzmark . the one I’d be looking to lay (if I layed that is) it would be Cappa Bleu in the 3 mile novice hurdle at Taunton. He was a big hype last year, OK he won The Foxhunters but it wasn’t much of a field and after that the hype went into overdrive. The Gold Cup was mentioned. If An Siorrac (who IS the real deal) had showed up at The Festival last year Cappa Bleu would have been beaten out of sight, even Carronhills would have blown him away.
Cappa Bleu looked totally outclassed in his two races this year but I’d expect him to favourite tomorrow and if so I will be looking to oppose himAgree that the Cappa Bleu race looks a real minefield, An Accordion is a similar type after some decent wins early last season but has disappointed since and seemingly requires hurdles to reinvigorate.
The one that interests me most is Whistlejacquet from the King yard. Has some excellent bumper form finishing second behind Cill Rialaig at Cheltenham and is sure to have been well schooled for this hurdles outing – the yard’s recent upturn is a plus and if likely to be around 7/2 looks excellent value in an ordinary race.
Rich
Whistlejacquet looks nailed on for the 1-2-3, but the 5-2 isn’t as good as I expected but I might add him to Robbers Bridge, although that’s also poorish value really at only 4-1 . Still I think i’ll try three 1 point ew doubles and a 2 point ew treble to try to get some running up money on An Accordion in the 3 mile hurdle. He’s dropped so much in class if he’s still got four legs it’s hard to see him out of the 1-2-3. Depending on the first two results I’m pretty sure I’ll go for an ew single
AN ACCORDIAN
, no less that 10 points ew but probably no more than 20 ew)
I’m not a Pipe fan, although I admire his record, even a fool or a bigot would have to admit he knows his job, I can’t recall the last time I backed a Pipe horse, probably Lough Dearg during the Indian Summer of form last seasonSmall wager today 15 points EW on Andlau in the last at Down Royal, form behind Sizing Mexico is working out well..
Tempted by Shuil Aris but thought better of backing a 9-y-o novice
Shocking ride by Jamie Codd on Andlau, I expected better from him, got baulked twice then stopped riding fully 100 yards from the line and lost third place in a photo.
Still I’ve only got myself to blame, upped my stakes a tad in the wake of Tidal Bay win and done 90 points this week on poor horses at tupney-hapeny meetings.
Recovery time tomorrow, back to only backing quality horse in decent races, approx 100 points win on FOR BILL. It’s the wifes birthday so we’re going out to lunch, I hope Ladbrokes are quoting a price before we leave, RP forecast is 7/4 I’d be more than happy with that.
Private Developer doesn’t run.
NH Season now (only) +1300 points Thanks JJ
For Bill looks a serious racehorse in the making, though doubt the 7/4 will still be available come tomorrow lunchtime.
Venetia Williams has some interesting runners tomorrow at both Towcester and Wincanton and it would be no surprise to see most if not all of them do well.
Twiston-Davies is also firing but the longer priced runners seem to be doing better than the more likely ones. He is also very adept at getting horses ready at home after a long absence so I’m interested to see what the market thinks of Danmagella in the first at Towcester. Educated Evans, half-brother to Tricky Trickster, goes in the bumper but it looks sure to be a stamina-laden affair on testing ground which will probably play to his strengths.
Hi Rich
I’ll have a look but these are not meeting at which I’d normally have a bet.
For Bill delivered the goods, I didn’t see the race but apparently she was very impressive.
2009/10 NH Season Profit now standing at 1425 Points
NTD yard very difficult to gauge, no winners today despite a few going close.
Venetia continues to be a bit inconsistent, only the one for her today.
Bangor (my local track) tomorrow looks a decent card if it’s on (lot of rain past few days in Wrexham though better forecast for tomorrow) and I will be looking at Alan King’s runners closely, its a course he seems to do well at, as well as Donald McCain of course. However there are always one or two surprises there and the smaller stables such as Dickin and Carroll may spring a surpise.
If Catterick goes ahead tomorrow then I’ll be very much interested in Ockey De Neuillac for Murphy/Lee. Read in the stable tour that the horse originally had Arkle plans but have been shelved after a few poor performances. He needs to realise his ability, similar to The Hollinwell, in these lesser class events to be given a chance in the bigger races in the next few months, tomorrow looks an excellent opportunity to open his account over fences in a novice chase. Ferdy Murphy has had a few winners in the past two weeks but hopefully this and Kalahari King on Sat can provide him with a good weekend’s work. the 11/4 on offer looks a steal.
CheltenhamSpecialist adsvised on
12 Jan 2010, 19:25DE FORGOTTEN MAN won an OK Point on dire ground in Ireland, if this turns out to be slog he should see the trip out fine
Non runner that day but won oday at 9-2..AND I MISSED IT!!!
Good Luck Rich, I won’t be having a bet tomorrow myself, in fact the last time I had a bet at Catterick (I’m guessing here) was probably in the late 1960s/early)
It would have been on a lovely but quirky 3 mile chaser called CALDBECK, he used to drop himself out in his races then finish like a train from a long way back. He won several times at Catterick later in his career, at one time I thouight he’d make a Cheltenham horse but he never improved much on his very impressive novice season. Maybe someone can recall the horse and exactly when he racedIf Catterick goes ahead tomorrow then I’ll be very much interested in Ockey De Neuillac for Murphy/Lee.
Good shout, hope you got on
SATURDAY’S RACING
Ones I may back….
1.30 Sandown :
Medermit is a 14-1 shot for The Champion Hurdle, he beat Dee Ee Williams a short head. Tomorrow
DEE EE WILLIAMS
gets 6 lbs from the dissapointing Binocular, I’m far from sure Binocular would beat Medemit at level weights so with the forecast odds being 1-6 Binocular and 6-1 Dee Ee Williams it’s obvious where the value lies
2.40 Naas :
PAY THE BOUNTY
has been the model of consistency since trailing home a Parish or two behind An Siorrac on his debut. He’ll stay the distance well, acts on heavy gropund, and has the racing experience to cope with the large field while Cottage Star, (probably the best horse in the field) has only had the one bumper run where Nina nursed him round the outside of the fairly small field. Tomorrow he’ll be one of 28 novices on heavy ground at Nass is going to be a jumping baptism of fire and better value lies with Pay The Bounty EW
Definite Bets…
2.55 Doncaster :
Decent EW single on
ALEGROLIL
may be the lowest rated horse in the field but is highly regarded and Donald McCain is flying right now. Looks a similar type to Peddler Cross and most of the others in the field have seen better days and only Jessie Harrington’s Give It Time represents any serious threat.
Plus a fair win treble on the three warming up for the RSA
PUNCHESTOWN
,
WEIRD AL
&
MAD MAX
Should be just short of 5-1 the treble, sounds value to me
SATURDAY’S RACING
Ones I may back….
1.30 Sandown :
Fancied but not backedDEE EE WILLIAMS
2.40 Naas :
Still undecided
PAY THE BOUNTY
Definite Bets…
2.55 Doncaster :
37 & 1/2 Points EW
ALEGROLIL
50 Points Win Treble
PUNCHESTOWN
,
WEIRD AL
&
MAD MAX
Mad Max screwed the treble, slight loss on the week, (17&1/2 points)
Seasons profit now 1362.5 pointsI’m tempted to splash out on a Dunguib and Agus A Vic
double tomorrow it looks like a licence to print money but it’ll depend on the prices. The RP forescast is 30/100 and 13/8 that would be more than fine (9/4 ‘ish for the double) but I can’t really see Agus A Vic being odds against.Decision tomorrow
Bet placed, Ladbrokes 6/5 (best odds guaranteed) Agus A Vic is better than I expected, but I have "bottled" slightly and gone for a 112.5 points double, (Min return IF they both win 321.75)
It was my intention to go for a 300 point win treble but with Cheltenham so close I’ve decided to keep more of my powder dry
PS RICH Good shout on Kalhari King Hope you were on big time…Looks obvious today but 20/20 hingsight doesn’t break the book.
In my defence (I didn’t back it) I VERY rarely bet in a handicap
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.