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This isn’t in competition with anyone, Fist/Jose etc, just been reading through some of your threads, excellent stuff.
I love Cheltenham etc as much as the next person, but from a punting perspective I prefer the lower grade action, as even in this day and age it’s possible to pick up on something that the market appears to have overlooked. I do keep lots of notes of races, but I’m hoping that by tasking myself with keeping this thread up to date I’ll become a little more organised.
The first horse I want to mention is BLUE IVY[/color:1grvqkbl]
A 3 year old filly in training with Chris Fairhurst. She had one run in May of last year as a two year old where after a slow start she showed a little ability in a small maiden at Nottingham. She wasn’t then seen until a few days ago at Southwell in a 5f seller. Once again she was slow away, but she’d made up a lot of ground by halfway and then just faltered close home. It was a poor contest, but granted a good start she would have been fighting out the finish, and wasn’t subjected to a hard ride. She did hang a little as she did on her debut, but appeared to handle the Southwell surface well enough.I think she would be interesting if running in a 5f or 6f seller/claimer back at the track in the next month, although connections might opt for a maiden event after which she would be qualified for a mark.
I’ve got a few already marked down, so I’ll add those over the next day or two, and from then I’ll update with new ones as when, whilst keeping an eye on entries and taking them off the list, I’ll keep some sort of balance to a level stake as well.
Ok next up is
Or indeed maybe this horse will. I noticed him first time out in a bumper two seasons ago, where he looked very green, a bit weak, but showed a glimpse of promise. Last season he pretty much passed me by, he had 3 more runs in bumpers, and only in the last at Ascot did he really show anything.So far this season he has been beaten 30, 52 and 53 lengths in 3 novice hurdle runs, and according to the BHB website has been awarded a mark of 88.
He has caught my attention because he races enthusiastically and really appears to enjoy himself. He is by no means a tearaway, and once he just learns to settle a little more, he should turn out ok. At Cheltenham he was in touch until the top of the hill, and as in his other runs, was allowed to come home in his own time when his chance had gone.
His has quite a rounded knee action, and has yet to encounter soft ground this season, which could be beneficial.
He might just need to another summer on his back to strengthen up a bit more, as he hasn’t quite been getting home. However if the stable does start to have a winner or two, and this one turns up in a low grade novice handicap hurdle, I certainly think he could be of interest.
I’d better add this one now as he has an entry next week, although that’ll probably prove too competitive for him.
The horse is
Anyway I digress, back to Venetian Lad. He finished a highly encouraging third on this racecourse debut in a bumper in December 09, and later that season he tired late on to finish in mid division in an Ascot bumper.This season he started off in a Fontwell bumper, and ran as if the run was needed, but he did make some late headway. Ten days later he made his hurdling debut at Plumpton, where his jumping was very novicey early on, and he was in trouble at halfway over 2m5f. However from then on he didn’t lose any more ground, his jumping improved, and stayed on stoutly up the straight and was beaten a respectable 18 lengths into 5th place at the line.
He is a nice looking type, who is possibly still a little on the weak side and the best of him may not be seen until next season in handicaps. That said, I’m sure he has enough ability to pick up a weak novice event over 2m4f or thereabouts and given his small stable, there is a fair chance he’ll be overpriced.
One more I’ve noticed has an entry next week, so here goes…..
Since finishing second in a Newbury bumper on his debut (in fact in the same race as Venetian Lad, see above) he has been campaigned over trips between 2m3f-2m6f over hurdles and has just hasn’t quite been getting home in some fair company. He also had an outing in one of those "jumpers bumpers" at Southwell and ran creditably enough in third.He’s not bred to be a stayer, and the way he travels in his races suggests for the moment at least the minimum 2 mile trip looks to be his optimum. He is an enthusiastic sort and to look at him he will probably be jumping fences next season, but there should be a modest handicap to be won with him over hurdles before then. An opening mark of 95 looks fair enough, and I think he could be very interesting if he takes up his entry next week at Leicester over 2 miles in a 0-95.
A few more to add on my current list.
Mares’ Maiden Hurdles aren’t usually the strongest contests and the one at Newcastle on the 19th won’t have lived too long in the memory. The winner Empress Orchid had an official rating of 105, although she has at least come out again and won since.
The mare that caught my eye was
Her first 2 efforts involved some sloppy jumping, and although she made one mistake on her latest outing, she did jump well in the improve, and apppears to be getting the hang of things. The fact that she was ridden more prominently at Newcastle produced a much improved effort, where after clouting 3 out she faded into a fairly well beaten fourth.She has been allotted a mark of 92, which gives her a chance in handicap company, and if connections can find a race that will enable her to get her on way in front, she could prove difficult to peg back. Given that she stays 1m6f on the flat, I wouldn’t be put off if they plump for a 2m4f event, in fact that may well turn out to be preferable. She obviously handles cut, as most Southwell winners tend to do, but she has won on good ground on the flat, so the surface may not be too important too her.
I doubt he’ll be up to winning tomorrow, even a place looks a little unlikely. However conditions should suit, and I’m hoping he runs another race that shows he is worth following once handicapped. I’ll be disappointed if he isn’t within 20 lengths of the winner.Having said all of that, if he is available at what I would regard "silly odds" around the 50/1 mark, then I won’t let him go unbacked, I would have though 20/25’s would be around his correct price.
On the face of it I was a little disappointed with Venetian Lad today, even though he was a 40/1 shot. However a few of the fancied runners were pulled up and he ran well enough to a point, perhaps 2m6f is just testing him a little too much at this stage of his career, one more run for a mark, and then we’ll see with him.
Ok tomorrow
I’ll be very disappointed if he doesn’t at least reach the frame, and i’ve seen enough from him to suggest he can win a race of this nature, so fingers crossed.
Blue Ivy
is running at Southwell on Thursday, but i’ll wait until tomorrow before previewing her race, whilst reviewing how Easton Clump got on.
The step up to 6f is an unknown, as she appears to have plenty of pace when she gets into her stride, and has been hindered by a slow start both times. I’ll be backing her each way at odds of 14/1 or more, because unlike the market leaders she has room for improvement, and I think she has shown she can run to a mark of 55/60 already which should see her fairly competitive.
Moving on, I’ll mostly be putting up relatively unexposed, and probably mostly maidens, however the running the other day of
Running off his last winning mark of 102 at Ayr, he travelled like he used too when at his best, and the leaders just caught him on the hop turning in, he was ultimately beaten 22 lengths, but I think he ran a little better than that would suggest. He is now rated 98 after that, and there is no question this 5 time winner is capable of taking advantage. There is a 2m2f handicap hurdle at Kelso on the 17th, favourite track, and a distance that suits him well, if he turns up there, he’ll be most interesting.
Obviously had his problems, and has shown next to nothing in 2 starts this season thus far. However there was money for him last time, and he travelled well to a point before floundering and stopping very quickly. I think it’s a simple case of him needing better ground (did finish second at Lingfield on Soft, but was beaten 35 lengths!) and probably a drop make to the minimum trip.Four runs and 2 years ago he started handicap life off a mark of 100, having been dropped substanially for his most recent failure, he is now rated just 79, a mark that can be exploited before the season is out, granted better ground and a distance not beyond 2m3f.
Just a quick recap on the horses on the list so far, and their likely requirements.Carmond
– He could be a lost cause, but has shown just enough to suggest a switch to better ground may see him win a little race over the minimum trip in the bottom grade.
He’s still more likely to be better suited to handicaps after this, but it’s a weak maiden and I wouldn’t be surprised if he showed up well, in fact I hope he does as it’ll be disappointing if he can’t be competitive in a race of this nature.
That was about what I expected today, a solid but unspectacular fifth. He showed enough to warrant keeping him on the list until I see what mark he gets for handicaps. I’m sure slightly better ground will help too.
If Blue Ivy runs in the 5:40 at Wolverhampton on Thursday it’ll be the first time in ages I’ve been excited by a race at Dunstall Park. I’ve been waiting for an entry for her, I was rather hoping it would be at Southwell as I know she acts there. This also looks like it could be competitive enough compared to a few of these races of late. That said, it may just mean a bigger price on Blue Ivy, I’ll update when the decs are finalised later in the week.
Venetian Lad is out yet again at Fontwell (now today, Sunday) He has been given a mark of 96, just a pound or two higher than I had hoped, but workable. However this isn’t a handicap and he doesn’t hold out much/any hope of winning this. I’m a little puzzled as to why he’s running in this…………we shall see
This is just the sort of race I was hoping she’d appear in. It’s competitive enough to make sure she is a decent price. But there is nothing in the race that makes me think she can’t win. I’ve watched her last two efforts several times, and it’s clear to me she has more ability than a mark of 49 suggests. She clearly has a lot of natural speed, and I hope they get away to a good start and that Kelly Harrison gets her settled mid-div from her draw of 8. She wasn’t noticeably slowing over 6f at Southwell, so I don’t see her lasting home being a problem. Other than what I’ve said, it’s hard to put a finger on exactly what it is that makes me so confident about her. The likes of Pineapple Pete and Bobbyow have speed to burn and a strong pace should suit Blue Ivy well.
Of her rivals Lois Lane is the obvious one after her victory last time in a maiden at Lingfield and I respect her chance off a fair mark. Kassaan made all last time at Kempton, but will do will to make all in this with so much early pace to contend with. Ridgeway Hawk is solid at a low level and should run his normal consistent race, and These Dreams will be popular after a seemingly improved performance last time at Lingfield. Whilst she gets in off a mark of 45 here, they all finished bunched up after going no gallop last time, and they is no doubt she was flattered by that.
All in all the more I look at Blue Ivy and the mark she races off in a race like this, the more I like her chances, providing of course she adapts well to the PolytrackIf she finishes 5th/6th beaten a length or two then fair enough, but i’m obviously hoping for more.
She was very slowly away on her racecourse debut in a 6f maiden at Lingfield yesterday. After that start she didn’t lose anymore ground on the leaders, and the jockey was motionless and allowed her to find her feet at that point. She was green coming round the bend, and lost a little more ground, but once she got running again under hands and heels riding she did run on nicely and wasn’t beaten much further than the ground she lost at the beginning. I doubt her run would have attracted too much attention, as she was a 50/1 chance from an unfashionable yard finishing 5th of 6. She is moderately, but speedily bred, and if she reappears in a few weeks time in another weak maiden or maybe a seller, I’d certainly think she would be of interest at a price.
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