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Think Ouzbeck and Araldur may have chances.
We agree again Rich!
Value Is EverythingIm unsure what you truely expect given the time of year?
A very interesting bumper, a fun Veterans chase and several interesting handicaps.
Are you a bookmaker?
What’s the time of year got to do with it?
To answer your question I exepect a degree of balance, three condition races, three handicaps (preferably not including a ‘fun’ veterans chase) and a bumper. That in years gone by would have been the norm. Increasingly it seems race planning just want to encourage people to lose money.
It is very frustrating for people like myself who take betting seriously but work during the week and are then faced with slot machine racing at the weekend.
Why not take your "betting seriously" in handicaps Stilvi? Handicaps can give the punter a good chance of making a profit. Sure, it’s easier to pick winners of conditions races, but that is taken in to account by the shorter prices. With bigger prices in handicaps a punter does not need as big a strike rate to show a profit. That’s if you want to back one horse in the race…
You can still take odds-on or short prices in so called "open handicaps" if you prefur Stilvi, by backing two, three or six horses. By doing so, handicaps are no harder to find the winner than conditions races. Runners usually have a lot more form to go on too, so in some ways handicaps are easier to work out.
In the "big race" tomorrow I’ve backed four horses. Ariel 11/2 (15.4%), Arulder 8/1 (11.1%), Rileyev 20/1 (4.8%) and Fine Parchment 15/2 (11.7%). Those prices add up to 43%, a combined price of just short of 11/8. In my opinion they have a combined chance of 52%. Taking 11/8 about something I believe is an odds-on chance.
You can’t expect conditions races this close to Cheltenham, they’d be so uncompetitive, so few would turn up it would cost courses to put the races on.
Value Is EverythingNewbury deserve great credit for producing a competitive, interesting card in aid of a fantastic charity. 2m4f Greatwood Handicap Chase has been won by good horses over the years. The Veteran chase is one of the most valuable races of its type. Should be more veterans chases, they’re some of the most popular with racegoers. They love seeing some of the old characters.
Value Is EverythingGod your an awful whinger stilvi. There are some interesting races on tomorrow. Just because it’s a card with a good few handicaps you go ballistic! If your all about betting than I have no sympathy for you. I love betting in handicaps but I can’t find a bet at Newbury today. Even so, there are some I fancy but I’ll be watching the races without having a bet.
Really looking forward to watching Maurice Linehan try get the hatrick up on Tarvini. Also Always Waining whos in the National goes in this.
The veterans race has 10 yos in it and some pretty good ones. Niche Market, Fair Along, Ouzbeck…Very interesting race if you ask me. (I have a soft spot for Ouzbeck)
Mad Max in the next for the first time has preferable conditions for Neil Mulholland.
Quit your whinging. Cheltenham is 9 days away.
God your an awful whinger stilvi. There are some interesting races on tomorrow. Just because it’s a card with a good few handicaps you go ballistic! If your all about betting than I have no sympathy for you. I love betting in handicaps but I can’t find a bet at Newbury today. Even so, there are some I fancy but I’ll be watching the races without having a bet.
Really looking forward to watching Maurice Linehan try get the hatrick up on Tarvini. Also Always Waining whos in the National goes in this.
The veterans race has 10 yos in it and some pretty good ones. Niche Market, Fair Along, Ouzbeck…Very interesting race if you ask me. (I have a soft spot for Ouzbeck)
Mad Max in the next for the first time has preferable conditions for Neil Mulholland.
Quit your whinging. Cheltenham is 9 days away.
Is this your pathetic equivalent of a warning off?
Before you start slagging people off why not start by getting your facts straight – it isn’t a card with a good few handicaps – if it was I wouldn’t have raised the point – every race is a handicap by the bumper. Can you name another main Saturday card that has had a similar make-up? A card should be about providing balance a point you have completely failed to grasp.
Obviously, racing isn’t all about betting – that is another point you have failed to grasp. It is about being selective. If people are licking their lips at betting opportunities at Newbury then I suspect the majority of them will end up long-term losers.
As regards prices, I find plenty of decent priced winners of condition races and it involves much less effort. The problem is people delude themselves when they find a rare 20/1 handicap winner. In reality most will just hand it back and more.
I’m quite happy with six handicaps at Newbury. Handicaps make up the vast majority of my betting races these days, better prices and more flutation in the market means better chances to exploit chances at decent odds.
My view and I appreciate that its not shared by everyone. That being said, I remember slagging off a Newmarket all 2yo race card a few years back and was put firmly in place by various Forumites. I was quite happy to accept each to their own.
If I have a gripe about today it’s small fields at Kelso! However there are some decent animals on show and enough to give plenty of interest.
Rob
Stilvi,
didn’t you know? Nobody is allowed to be critical on here. There’s a little clique of people who won’t have a word said against anything involving the Turf and also anyone critical of the whip ban.
Never express surprise or dismay about a winner; even if it’s been off the track since Tony Blair was prime minister. A certain egotistical Irish bettor will be on your back immediately.
Maybe you were right about Newbury today, and for that matter Donny: I’ve had the worst afternoon’s punting this year. Put two good prices in the frame but got hammered elsewhere. What exactly was the going? I should have stayed in bed anyway.
If you raise ANY questions about any race on here it’s always ‘pocket talk’, as if this was really an answer for everything.
Stilvi,
didn’t you know? Nobody is allowed to be critical on here. There’s a little clique of people who won’t have a word said against anything involving the Turf and also anyone critical of the whip ban.
Never express surprise or dismay about a winner; even if it’s been off the track since Tony Blair was prime minister. A certain egotistical Irish bettor will be on your back immediately.
Maybe you were right about Newbury today, and for that matter Donny: I’ve had the worst afternoon’s punting this year. Put two good prices in the frame but got hammered elsewhere. What exactly was the going? I should have stayed in bed anyway.
If you raise ANY questions about any race on here it’s always ‘pocket talk’, as if this was really an answer for everything.
It took me a few days to be aware of the clique but you probably get that on all forums. There are certain people who attempt to set themselves up on a pedestal and indulge in the childish my post is better than your post behaviour. If you have faith in what you are posting then it is best just to ignore them. Yes, I take exception to the liberal use of the term ‘pocket talk’ as if it somehow negates a valid point.
Stilvi,
didn’t you know? Nobody is allowed to be critical on here. There’s a little clique of people who won’t have a word said against anything involving the Turf and also anyone critical of the whip ban.
Never express surprise or dismay about a winner; even if it’s been off the track since Tony Blair was prime minister. A certain egotistical Irish bettor will be on your back immediately.
Maybe you were right about Newbury today, and for that matter Donny: I’ve had the worst afternoon’s punting this year. Put two good prices in the frame but got hammered elsewhere. What exactly was the going? I should have stayed in bed anyway.
If you raise ANY questions about any race on here it’s always ‘pocket talk’, as if this was really an answer for everything.
Prof/Stilvi,
Of course it’s "allowed to be critical". But why should you be allowed to be critical without yourselves being criticised if others don’t agree with you? Often the people criticised aren’t forumites so can not defend themselves. Do none of them deserve to be defended? I’ll defend anyone who I believe is wrongly criticised, but also defend your right to do so.
I wouldn’t say any criticism of rides is always "pocket talk" (although it often is). I myself in Daily Lays And Plays criticised Timmy Murphy’s ride of one I backed yesterday at Newbury. Even mentioned it could be seen as "pocket talk"…
"Timmy Murphy cost me on Nataani.
A ride of two halves.Obviously a horse who likes to be on his own
. Kept away from other runners at the start. Tick /.
Raced wide in mid-div originally when there seemed a few front runners in the field. Tick /.
Not as much pace as first thought so got closer to the pace. Tick /.
Got to the end of back straight going well up with the leader. Tick /.
Looked around and both lost ground on leader and let others catch up. Cross X.
Put this horse wholikes to be on his own
up the inner. Cross X.
Went on inner around the turn for home, losing ground and valuable momentum. Cross X.
Got back in to it, but continued to go up the inner as Railway Dillon kept going accross him. Cross X.
Eventually decided to go around Railway Dillon, but only as Thornton got upsides and (again,with this horse who likes to be on his own
) got in to a barging match with the pair Cross. X.
Got to the last fence with every chance, couldn’t see any sort of stride. Slowing markedly. Cross X.
Bunny-hopped and slowly away from the fence. Cross X.
Got the horse running again when free of other runners. Tick /.
All too late. Cross X Cross X XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX.
I know, I know. Pocket talk!
Well may be I am biased, but I was thinking all this as it happened. Of course it is not certain what would’ve happened, the winner might have idled, but on the whole… I believe Murphy should’ve won".
You can criticise Prof, by explaining why you felt the ride was so bad. Without chucking the tools out of the pram or making out the jockey / trainer is bent etc.
And expect others to take a different opinion without moaning about it.
Value Is EverythingTo some extent theoretically I agree with the senitiment of the title …though wouldn’t use the words total garbabge..perhaps Bookmakers paradise?!?!
However after my best selecting day of the year and perhaps ever (6 horses with 5 winners and a seond) where I got last 3 televised winners from Newbury then tonight I’m buzzing and dead chuffed that the races were handicaps.
However I’m sure mid summer Saturday when there are 6 televised handicaps on C4 from Newmarket and York each with 12 -20 runners and I don’t even get a sniff of a place then if there was an article like this about that then I’d be supporting it as most of the time do find my success rate in Graded races far higher…though interestingly although my RoI is better its not as much better as I would have naturally thought.
Guess that last point links into comments made about prices by Gingertipster.
GT – Thanks as had not looked back on my records that closely until todays successes and reading your comments on this thread
yorkiedips
Stilvi,
didn’t you know? Nobody is allowed to be critical on here. There’s a little clique of people who won’t have a word said against anything involving the Turf and also anyone critical of the whip ban.
Never express surprise or dismay about a winner; even if it’s been off the track since Tony Blair was prime minister. A certain egotistical Irish bettor will be on your back immediately.
Maybe you were right about Newbury today, and for that matter Donny: I’ve had the worst afternoon’s punting this year. Put two good prices in the frame but got hammered elsewhere. What exactly was the going? I should have stayed in bed anyway.
If you raise ANY questions about any race on here it’s always ‘pocket talk’, as if this was really an answer for everything.
It took me a few days to be aware of the clique but you probably get that on all forums. There are certain people who attempt to set themselves up on a pedestal and indulge in the childish my post is better than your post behaviour. If you have faith in what you are posting then it is best just to ignore them. Yes, I take exception to the liberal use of the term ‘pocket talk’ as if it somehow negates a valid point.
To an extent it is the nature of the sport that makes it like this, or rather the nature of the punters: go in any betting shop and you will find a clique of middle-aged men who think they know absolutely everything about the Turf. So with this forum.
As we see from Gingertipster’s post, the rule is: I’m allowed to indulge in pocket talk because I know what I’m on about.To some extent theoretically I agree with the senitiment of the title …though wouldn’t use the words total garbabge..perhaps Bookmakers paradise?!?!
However after my best selecting day of the year and perhaps ever (6 horses with 5 winners and a seond) where I got last 3 televised winners from Newbury then tonight I’m buzzing and dead chuffed that the races were handicaps.
However I’m sure mid summer Saturday when there are 6 televised handicaps on C4 from Newmarket and York each with 12 -20 runners and I don’t even get a sniff of a place then if there was an article like this about that then I’d be supporting it as most of the time do find my success rate in Graded races far higher…though interestingly although my RoI is better its not as much better as I would have naturally thought.
Guess that last point links into comments made about prices by Gingertipster.
GT – Thanks as had not looked back on my records that closely until todays successes and reading your comments on this thread
yorkiedips
Well done, I’m delighted for you, but backing a favourite, a strong fancy and a mystery horse only raced on v soft is not really a punting triumph in wider terms. Of course, and I say this completely straight, if YOU feel you have triumphed that is the main thing in this game.
Yesterday was a good warning to me: I was +69 to a pound stake since Jan 1 (average bet £50 e/w) and getting a bit cocky.To some extent theoretically I agree with the senitiment of the title …though wouldn’t use the words total garbabge..perhaps Bookmakers paradise?!?!
However after my best selecting day of the year and perhaps ever (6 horses with 5 winners and a seond) where I got last 3 televised winners from Newbury then tonight I’m buzzing and dead chuffed that the races were handicaps.
However I’m sure mid summer Saturday when there are 6 televised handicaps on C4 from Newmarket and York each with 12 -20 runners and I don’t even get a sniff of a place then if there was an article like this about that then I’d be supporting it as most of the time do find my success rate in Graded races far higher…though interestingly although my RoI is better its not as much better as I would have naturally thought.
Guess that last point links into comments made about prices by Gingertipster.
GT – Thanks as had not looked back on my records that closely until todays successes and reading your comments on this thread
yorkiedips
Out of curiousity, what made you confident about Aerial? I discounted him because we were told the chase course was Good and Aerial’s form wasn’t much good on, er, Good.
To some extent theoretically I agree with the senitiment of the title …though wouldn’t use the words total garbabge..perhaps Bookmakers paradise?!?!
However after my best selecting day of the year and perhaps ever (6 horses with 5 winners and a seond) where I got last 3 televised winners from Newbury then tonight I’m buzzing and dead chuffed that the races were handicaps.
However I’m sure mid summer Saturday when there are 6 televised handicaps on C4 from Newmarket and York each with 12 -20 runners and I don’t even get a sniff of a place then if there was an article like this about that then I’d be supporting it as most of the time do find my success rate in Graded races far higher…though interestingly although my RoI is better its not as much better as I would have naturally thought.
Guess that last point links into comments made about prices by Gingertipster.
GT – Thanks as had not looked back on my records that closely until todays successes and reading your comments on this thread
yorkiedips
Out of curiousity, what made you confident about Aerial? I discounted him because we were told the chase course was Good and Aerial’s form wasn’t much good on, er, Good.
To an extent it is the nature of the sport that makes it like this, or rather the nature of the punters: go in any betting shop and you will find a clique of middle-aged men who think they know absolutely everything about the Turf. So with this forum.
As we see from Gingertipster’s post, the rule is: I’m allowed to indulge in pocket talk because I know what I’m on about. That’s not what I said Prof.
I don’t know "everything about turf", just almost everything.To be serious,
I expected (could say invited) others to come back and claim my criticism was "pocket talk". But I did try and explain fully exactly why I thought the way I did.To be honest Prof, the amount of negative stuff you put on here doesn’t do you any good. Although we all should treat every post on its own merits – When people see your name against a negative post, it’s difficult for us not to pre-judge.
Value Is Everything
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