The home of intelligent horse racing discussion
The home of intelligent horse racing discussion

Northumberland Plate 2009

Home Forums Big Races – Discussion Northumberland Plate 2009

Viewing 17 posts - 1 through 17 (of 22 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • #11851
    RedRiot
    Member
    • Total Posts 870

    What is taking everyones fancy for this race?

    Hendersyde and Meshtri the ones I like for this race.

    #236063
    Twinkle Twinkle
    Member
    • Total Posts 54

    Speed ticket, wells lyrical if it were to rain at all, victoria montoya if she were to get in. Great race if most of them stay in.

    #236066
    moehat
    Participant
    • Total Posts 8373

    Whats the Jessica Harrington horse? Does she usually enter horses for this race?

    #236196
    Gerald
    Member
    • Total Posts 4293

    I haven’t looked at the past results, but I believe that this is one of the races in the calendar where the draw plays a big role!

    #236210
    mickeddy
    Participant
    • Total Posts 104

    The draw for the last 10 years was:
    6,13,16,7,5,1,9,17,4 and 6.
    According to the Weekender 9 of the last 10 winners carried no more than 8st 11lb. They also say 7 from the last 10 swerved Royal Ascot.
    For all stat people I should think these are important guidelines. The final decs should be out tomorrow so I’ll wait for them.
    Mike.

    #236381
    Gerald
    Member
    • Total Posts 4293

    Thanks Mickeddy. I’ve finally gotten me finger out, and started looking at the horses again. I’ve been going back 15 years in most races I’ve been looking at, but to make it an even number, I’ve made it 16 this time.
    The draw of the 6 winners before the last ten were
    2, 20, 7, 5, 4, 20

    It would be quite nice if there was 18 runners every year, then half the time the winner ought to have a double-digit draw.
    DD draw has won 3 of the last 10, and 5 of the last 16.

    I don’t usually bet in this race, but the reason I thought there was a big draw bias was because I backed Sun Bird, drawn 12, in 2003. I was gobsmacked a few weeks later, when he nearly won the Ebor.
    Anyway, I think Sun Bird got stuck several horses off the rail going in to the first bend (in the Northumberland Plate), and stayed there all the way around the circuit. The draw positions of the first six home that year were 1, 2, 7, 8, 6 and 4 so you can understand why I thought the Draw was very important in this race.

    #236385
    Gerald
    Member
    • Total Posts 4293

    I’ve just looked at a list of the declarations. I’m saving my form-reading for the Summer National. As I backed him for the Chester Cup, and think he is capable of winning a big one, I’m putting a couple of quid on Ajaan.

    I’m disappointed that in my absence none of you Philistines has started a thread about the Gorforth Park Sprint.

    #236487
    mickeddy
    Participant
    • Total Posts 104

    This is a hard one where there are several in it with decent chances. I have narrowed it down to:
    Judgethemoment, Wells Lyrical, Hendersyde and Speed Ticket. Bearing in mind the first six last year were drawn 6,12,5,15,16 and 19. However 8 of the last 10 came from single figure draws like last years winner so I think you have to bear that in mind. J, is drawn 21 which won’t help his cause. The other three are drawn in single figures. I like WL and H. They both seem to be progressive. As I said its hard, anyone else cracked it yet?
    Mike.

    #236503
    moehat
    Participant
    • Total Posts 8373

    Is there going to be a thread for the Summer [not quite a] National? Backed Aces Four last year; seems to be well placed by David Pipe but been off the track for a while…[darn it; memory gone awol…Forty Acers???]

    #236506
    wullscotia
    Member
    • Total Posts 2

    Hi new to this forum . :D ….I think Keenes Day will go well and also think each way Hits Only Vic . Think Keenes Day more suited to 2miles and is well thought of by the Johnston camp. Ascot was not such a hard race when finishing 9th. As for Hits Only Vic i think the draw and the fact she did so well in june gives a great each way squeak.

    Good luck to all having a bet. :P

    #236511
    RedRiot
    Member
    • Total Posts 870

    Well with the shed loads of rain at Newcastle I will be changing to Wells Lyrical.

    #236516
    stilvi
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4515

    Hits Only Vic each-way will do for me as well.

    #236538
    mickeddy
    Participant
    • Total Posts 104

    Possible there could be a few non-runners tomorrow if rain persists. I agree with the above that Hits Only Vic would enter the equation if ground stays GS as it is forecast now. In fact Hendersyde and HOV would have to be on the short list. I’ll wait til tomorrow before a final decision. Good luck all who play.
    Mike.

    #236565
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    I really liked Judgethemoment for this, but the ground seems to be going against him, and he may be withdrawn.
    In his absence, Afaan may fit the bill. He showed he had continued his improvement last year until over-faced in the marathon Queen Alexandra, since when he appeared to have lost his form completely. However, he was kept in training as a 5yo, which suggests the old maestro thought he had more to offer, and he was proved right in his very first run when he came from a fair way back to finish 2nd in a slowly run Chester Cup. Looks to have missed Ascot with this in mind and, thanks to last season’s aberration, gets in 4lbs lower than the mark allocated after his last Newmarket win.
    Fairly drawn too, won’t mind any more rain, and at a double figure price, should show a profit for a place, at least.

    #236574
    stilvi
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4515

    Ajaan didn’t stay in the Queen Alexandra. Although he has a touch of class and can travel well not too sure about ground for him – for me he ran a little too well at Chester for a soft ground performer.

    #236588
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    With the ground as it is Speed Ticket is the one for me.

    #236623
    Gerald
    Member
    • Total Posts 4293

    First 3 home drawn 4, 2 and 3.

    A pity I never take any notice of anything I write. Anyone put draws 1,2,3 & 4 in a £24 combination tricast?
    :lol:

Viewing 17 posts - 1 through 17 (of 22 total)
  • You must be logged in to reply to this topic.