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Entries out, but it looks fairly tough to trawl through right now, with Royal Ascot on the horizon, as a lot could obviously change there….
https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/1353/newcastle-aw/2019-06-29/729201
https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/flat/northumberland-plate/winner
At the head of the weights, Mekong, makes plenty of appeal. That was a really decent run at Sandown, and looks just they type for this, especially as the weight shouldn’t be that prohibitive either. He’s got loftier targets later in the year, so he’s of definite interest.
Watersmeet made the frame that day, and has seemed as good as ever this term, so he’s maybe one to consider on the day, especially with maximum place concessions, but the obvious one from last year is the winner. We don’t get to see Withold too often, and having came here straight from The Cesarewitch, he’s not been seen on these shores since. He won as he liked last year, and the on the back of that run, and if all is well with him, the rise in the weights should not be an issue.
Willie Mullins has another very interesting contender for Tony Bloom, in the shape of Stratum. Won very easily at Ballinrobe the other week over hurdles, and holds an Irish St Leger entry. He really does jump out here considering that entry, and of course connections. Mullins, as per, has a strong entry, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see just one, maybe two of them make the trip…..
Buildmeupbuttercup
Exchange Rate
Great White Shark
Mister Blue Sky
Mr Adjudicator
Nessun Dorma
Whiskey SourI’d be particularly interested in Mr Adjudicator from that lot, but he’d have to have doubts about getting in, and Stratum looks a strong one.
Conversely, Aidan O’Brien has only the one entry, Barabdos, and much like the bulk of WPM’s entries, he may struggle to get in, but he’d be worth noting if he did, as he’s a horse who’s got something like this within him.
Another potential runner from Ireland is the enigmatic Wonder Laish. God knows what Charles Byrnes has in store for him, but he’s a relatively low key entry here, but he fair caught my attention.
Red Galilieo, The Grand Visir, Cohesion, and Speedo Boy, are all out today, including a good few others who might struggle to get in, so definitely worth a second look with this in mind, and of that quartet, I’d be particularly interested in Speedo Boy, though in truth I don’t know if I could see him being my #1 for this right now.
A good few others out today, and the one I really did like was Theglasgowwarrior, but he faces a fight to get in. Continually underrated horse, and he looks ideal for The Northumberland Vase, should he indeed not make it here. Talking of The Vase, last years winner Cosmelli, is slowly returning to form, and I’d have to have him down, like Watersmeet, as one for the places on the day.
Of those nearer the top of the weights, then Proschema catches the eye, he certainly ran well for a long way in The St Leger, while Kings Advice just doesn’t know how to lose, and it looks unlikely that he’s stopped progressing, and he’s a very interesting contender.
I really want to have an Antepost play, but there’s four in there I really like for this, and I can’t go with all of them, well not right now anyway….
Cleonte
Cliffs of Dooneen
Raheen House
Rock EagleCleonte might be flying high in The Ascot Gold Cup, while I’ll stick to my guns, and keep Cliffs of Dooneen as a possible Cesarewitch horse. That leaves me with the other pair for now.
Rock Eagle was maybe a little flat last time, but I’m fairly sure he’s better than that, and I’d have him as a real contender here, for all there would be question marks over the trip. Raheen House was considered good enough for The St Leger in 2017. He had a bit of a flat 2018, but as a result his mark has dropped quite dramatically, and who knows how he might improve for the surface, and he’ll certainly like the trip, having shaped on more than one occasion that he needs it.
As I said though, I can’t bet em all, and maybe better to wait and see who goes to Royal Ascot.
Cleonte, and Cliffs of Dooneen are still high on my list, even after being a little disappointing at Chester, and I’d be willing to put that down to the ground. Theglasgowwarrior I’d have as rock solid each way for this if he could get in, and I’d be willing to nip in today for the 25’s, should he win at Newmarket.
If betting just now it would be between…
Raheen House 40’s
Rock Eagle 25’s
Stratum 16’s
Theglasgowwarrior 25’sI’ll be watching this thread closely, as I’m ticking Newcastle off my racecourse list (38 so far) on Plate day.
I like Mekong but he’s going to be no sort of price. Tony Bloom’s selected will also be over-bet, so there should be value elsewhere.
Decent effort by Red Galileo, but that 33’s is still there for Speedo Boy, very tempting.
Anyone any idea if Mekong actually goes? I mentioned him in the Gold Cup thread after the Dee Ex Bee race- would really fancy him here tbh even with 6pd rise!
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Dubawi Fifty immediately jumped off the page to me not been seen since game effort from the front in last years Ascot Stakes finishing 2nd which followed his 4th in Chester Cup. It must have been very tempting for them to target him at a repeat there but he’s been kept fresh for a crack at this last I read (local yard to the track) and he’s got course and distance winning form. I don’t tend to bet antepost but I’ll be rowing in if he gets declared, preferably with Joe Fanning booked if he’s back fit and a decent draw.
Welcome to TRF Tin Man.
Big fan of Dubawi Fifty, and still kicking myself for missing him at a big each way price in The Cesarewitch. I really liked him for last year’s Ebor, but he obviously didn’t make it.
If he’s good to go, then I’d say the 16’s still looks fair.
Stratum still available at 14’s, but as daft as this sounds, I’d rather take half of that, should he be declared.
The 33’s is long gone for Speedo Boy, so I’m on the verge of betting Theglasgowwarrior, who needs a handful to come out, and should he not make it, it’ll be money back. Problem with him is that I don’t expect his price to contract too much, so might be as well waiting for him too, and get the extra places.
Not bet yet, but shortlist getting whittled down….
Stratum 14’s
Theglasgowwarrior 25’sI think that Withhold at 10/1 with Bet365 is a very decent bet. I don’t
think there has ever been a back to back winner of the Plate, certainly not in the
last 30 years, the nearest to that was Tominator who won it in 2011 and 2013. He’s
up 8lbs from last year, but I think the manner in which he won it last year he should
still have every chance. There may even be more to come from him as although he’s 6 yrs
old, he’s only raced twice in each of the last 2 years. This is a hugely valuable handicap,
and I think he’s been wrapped in cotton wool since with this in mind. No better man to
get one ready for a big handicap than Roger Charlton, and I think the money will come for
him. Bet365 still stand 10/1, but I think there’s no chance he will be in double figures
come Saturday. Gibbs Hill is favourite, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see him challenging
for that by off time.I’d also be interested in Charlton’s other entry, Master Archer at 40/1,
but I think it’s doubtful that he will get in here as he needs 11 to drop out. He
looked like one to keep an eye on when he won quite cosily last year at Chester off
a mark of 86. He ran a very promising running on 4th at Goodwood earlier this month
off a mark of 88, and he runs here off the same mark. As I say, it’s a bit doubtful
he will get in here and if he doesn’t I’ll certainly be having a pop at him in the
consolation Northumberland Vase earlier in the day.Theglasgowwarrior balloted out, so I’ll keep it simple and go with Stratum for the win at 9’s.
I’ll add Speedo Boy At 16’s as the #2, hopefully to max places, but with main fancy not getting in, it’s not a race I’m going to go mad in now.
Speedo Boy 16’s EW
Stratum 9’sI’ve gone back through the race because I wasn’t entirely happy with Luke Morris on board Dubawi Fifty he’s not my cup of tea as a jockey for all he does well on all weather tracks.
I couldn’t make out a clear favourite but I certainly couldn’t be having Gibbs Hill off what can only be stable vibes/gossip on the back of nearly 2 years off, he’s 11lbs higher than his last run and for all I expect him to improve for the step up in trip being a son of Mastercraftsman who tend to stay well, it’s not a given which you’d expect at his odds.
Withhold’s absence wouldn’t concern me because he won this last year off a similar break, what would worry me would be the fact he bled in Australia and the fact Tony Bloom sends Stratum here as well which to the best of my memory he doesn’t tend to run two in a big handicap.
Stratum arguably could/should be fav if you think how easily he won the JLT Cup at Newbury last year off 6lbs lower from a very solid yardstick in 3rd to most of these horses form in Couer De Lion and then went off fav and got butchered in the run in of the Ebor off this mark when making progress. I don’t think he’d have beaten Muntahaa that day but he’d have gone close. He’s come back to form over hurdles and is nice and fit. Going purely on sire Dansili has produced plenty of all weather winners including Mootasadir who lines up in this. He’s plenty going for him at what is probably a fair enough price.
Kings Advice just keeps on winning but at Goodwood last time he looked to me all out at the line like 1M 6F was the limit of his stamina and/or the handicapper is finally getting him. Either way What A Welcome who was 2nd was well held in the race won last time by Red Galileo.
Incidentally Red Galileo’s 5lb penalty is cleverly negated by Thomas Greatrex’s claim which he gets for a reason but he does ride Newcastle well given his lack of experience albeit with limited evidence (2 wins from 6 rides – only managed 21 wins total so far in his career). I can’t see Speedo Boy reversing that form from last time out personally but Red Galileo’s strike rate generally is of concern given he’s now a 109 horse.
Bartholomeu Dias is very interesting…. we know he likes the track and his form last time out has worked out very well with Royal Ascot winner Baghdad in 3rd behind him. He’s clearly been left aside for this which I like. He’s always been a big rangy horse, a bit coltish and looks to finally be fulfilling some of his potential but he can be a bit free and it’s not a given the step-up in trip will work out, particularly as there are plenty here who like to race prominently which he has been doing lately. With hindsight he did well to get as close to a race fit Kings Advice at Wolverhampton back in April conceding 8lbs but as I say doubts about the trip.
I though Jim Crowley got Time To Study to the front too soon in the Ascot Stakes but looking back through his form he maybe doesn’t quite stay 2 and 1/2 miles, this should be more suitable off the same mark. Question is does it come too soon after what was a tough race on one of the wetter days at Ascot. That’s two tough races in a row because he also ran in the mud at Chester. He’s thrown in on his old form for what it’s worth 8lbs lower than 6th in this very race last year.
There are plenty of other solid horses who I can see going well but not winning at bigger odds and I’m sure there’s a big race in Proschema somewhere down the line if his mark keeps dropping but this wouldn’t be it for me given Kingscote isn’t on board.
I’ll be sticking with Dubawi Fifty at an each-way price for reasons mentioned previous. I’d have preferred De Sousa to be riding but can understand his loyalty to Austrian School for all he isn’t contractually obliged either way.
I’ll be saving with Stratum who I think VTC has hit the nail on the head with and can see him going off close to fav. Best of luck to the rest of you
Cosmelli is the antithesis of solid but I’m contractually obliged to back him at this point. Followed him off a cliff since the Northumberland Vase win last year which was a sensational effort given the track bias. Hopefully temperatures don’t get too high tomorrow so the track continues to be it’s usual hostile self to the front-runners.
He’s been campaigned terribly by connections but his 3rd in a very hot Kempton handicap on his penultimate start was very good considering the inadequate trip. Hopefully his ill-advised foray at Royal Ascot didn’t take masses out of him but that definitely tempers my confidence for tomorrow. Might back him alongside something else but I’m currently undecided as to what.
I was going through the race and kept changing my mind with the handicappers that have been around, so have decided to chance the 2 that could be group horses.
Gibbs Hill 11-2. 7-2 earlier in the week was too short, 11-2 more realistic. Could be a group horse in a handicap.
Bartholomeu Dias 8-1. Charlie Hills has kept him for this, and has an entry in the Goodwood Cup. If he’s anywhere near that class he’ll probably win this. Taken some 7 places ew on him as still has stamina to prove.
good luck with your picks.
Bit sick that Withhold was pulled out today, I’ll try and recover a bit of
my ante post with Austrian School 18/1 (boosted PP) e/w 6 places.I’ve had 2 bets here.
Kings Advice to win at 9-1 + Cosmelli each way at 33-1 6 places.
What can I say VTC he’s run a cracker after such an absence and I’ve no complaints with Morris’ ride he’s held onto him as long as possible considering he can be a bit whip happy too early on for my liking, travelled like a dream and just be nabbed late on by one who to be fair deserved to win one of these always being there or thereabouts in a few big ones. One of those days I backed Growl in the big sprint handicap at York at big odds too and thought he was coming to win his race. Main thing is it was a good race to watch and just about breaking even with the place part, Stratum ran a shocker from a similar position throughout
Congrats Cosmelli backers he’s ran another massive race at Newcastle at a huge price.
Congrats Cosmelli backers he’s ran another massive race at Newcastle at a huge price.- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.