Home › Forums › Archive Topics › Trends, Research And Notebooks › North's Horses To Follow – National Hunt Season 2017/18
Tagged: 2017/18, Horses To Follow, jumps, National Hunt, North
- This topic has 55 replies, 5 voices, and was last updated 8 years ago by
robnorth.
- AuthorPosts
- December 23, 2017 at 21:11 #1333743
An update on performances to date and future prospects:
BAL DE RIO – L – Ran into a decent one in Slanelough at Carlisle. The only prominent finisher yet to win from ‘that race’ at Kelso and is entered at Sedgefield on Boxing Day on a pretty reasonable mark of 115.
BEYOND THE CLOUDS – w4/6, w2/5 – Won at Kelso in a race which has thrown up multiple winners and then sluiced up from a 132 rated animal at Musselburgh. Looks all over a Graded class novice hurdler that I suspect will be kept to better ground.
BIGIRONONHISHIP – L – Faded to a stand still on the run in over 3m 2f at Carlisle with no report of an ailment, so presumably his stamina gave out in testing going.
BIG RIVER – w11/5, L – Put in a sound performance on Kelso debut, but suffered a fibrillating heart on his next outing at Haydock. Presumably recovered after treatment by the vets at the excellent Easter Bush facility as he is entered at Kelso on the 29th December.
CELTIC FLAMES – L, L, w5/2, L – Made a very promising chasing debut when winning at Hexham, but was well below that form at Newcastle. The latter course can throw up some odd results and I’d give this one another chance.
CLOUDY DREAM – L, L ,L – Three very creditable second places on the face of it, but carried his head at an odd angle when running at Cheltenham. Quoted in the betting for races at various distances at Cheltenham.
COCKLE BAY – Not yet run
FAGAN – L – Put in his place by Black Corton at Cheltenham which was disappointing.
FLY RORY FLY – Yet to appear for his new stable
JONNIESOFA – w 11/4 – Picked up where he left of two seasons ago when jumping like a veteran to win at Carlisle on chasing debut. Entered at Wetherby and Kelso in Christmas week. A very promising novice chaser.
JUST MINDED – L, L – Ran as if there was a problem on last outing and a watching brief is advised at the moment.
LADY SAMBACK – Entered once but withdrawn due to the state of the ground.
PLANET NINE – L, L – A bit one paced over 2m 4f to date but has ability and should step up on this form in time, maybe over three miles.
SIMONE – L – Unlucky to run into a decent mare at Musselburgh, bearing in mind this department is generally weakly contested up here. That said, the effort was step up on Perth form and this one should win soon. Entered at Doncaster and Kelso on December 29th.
SOME REIGN – L, w1/2, L – Another graduate of ‘that contest’ at Kelso. Won well next time before blotting his copybook when refusing to race at Musselburgh recently.
TESTIFY – w11/4, w5/2 – Two decent efforts over fences to date, particularly given that it could be argued he’s run over a distance short of his best. Has beaten decent opponents on both occasions and the McCain stable look to have a very decent novice chaser on their hands.
THOMOND – Yet to appear for his new stable.
TOTAL ASSETS – L – Decent enough effort in a competitive Class 3 chase at Catterick last time and capable of winning a race or two in the coming months against less stiff opposition. Entered at Kelso on December 29th.
WAITING PATIENTLY – w4/5 – Very impressive at Carlisle on seasonal debut and arguably the best northerner chaser ahead of stablemate Cloudy Dream.
WEYMSS POINT – L, w7/1, L – Won well at Wetherby and not disgraced under a penalty when third there next time.
Record to date
RUNS 30
WINS 10 (33%)
RETURNS 32.07
A good win percentage though prices maybe a little disappointing. Still we are in profit and 33% wins is better than I might have expected.December 23, 2017 at 21:27 #1333745Some very nice horses there Rob and a good midterm review.
All the best for Christmas and the New Year for you and your family.December 24, 2017 at 20:05 #1333874Thanks greenasgrass, good to know my efforts are appreciated.
BAL DE RIO makes his handicap hurdling debut at Sedgefield on Boxing Day and looks to have every chance. The form of his Kelso race is as decent as any northern novice hurdle this season.
Rob
December 26, 2017 at 17:21 #1334128BAL DE RIO was not disgraced in running second to a progressive sort in Octagon. He’s not doing much wrong and there must be a race for him soon. Incidentally Octogan looked to be dossing in front from two out and there looks to be a bit more to come.
December 30, 2017 at 11:19 #1334979JONNIESOFA takes on two opponents at Haydock in the 12.25 a novices’ chase. On balance anything better than evens to take this race looks reasonable.
December 31, 2017 at 17:41 #1335180JONNIESOFA got turned over by a useful prospect from donald McCain who is having a cracking time right now. There will be another day for Rose Dobbin’s gelding.
New Year’s Day
Catterick
JUST MINDED bids to put right a rather grim start to the campaign in a 3m 1f novices’ chase at 1.35. He’s up against two rated 139 and 135 and I’d say a clear round would be the aim here.
Musselburgh
None of mine appearing at the New Year Sprint Meeting. Given the decent ground and prize money up for grabs the turn out for this meeting is pathetic. Any trainers whining about prize money levels should get this meeting thrown back at them.
December 31, 2017 at 17:47 #1335184Good to see Lucy Alexander win yesterday on live television, wasn’t it. Have been wondering if Miss Mattie Ross has produced any good foals [assuming she has gone to the paddocks?].
January 1, 2018 at 17:17 #1335296Yes, good to see Lucy back on the scoreboard. She’s not had much luck with injuries recently, latest one a muscle injury caused by trying to straighten a very hard puller of her dad’s at Musselburgh.
I can’t find any record of foals produced by Miss Mattie Ross. There would normally be some record on Racing Post database but nothing shows for her.
January 1, 2018 at 17:59 #1335298JUST MINDED got round in third at Catterick as expected. However his jumping remains sketchy and he’s not providing much encouragement at this stage.
January 1, 2018 at 22:07 #1335316Yes; I tried to find out about Miss Mattie but couldn’t find anything. I hope she wasn’t injured in her last race. She always seemed to be running at Kelos when we first started going there. I had assumed that Another Mattie was related, but she isn’t. Also wondering about my beloved Little Glenshee. Good to see northern horses and trainers doing well at the moment!
January 2, 2018 at 20:09 #1335396I understand Little Glenshee has been retired to the paddocks under the supervision of the Alexander family. Hopefully she will continue the dynasty of her dam Harrietfield, a mare who produced numerous winners under Rules and in the pointing field. Harrietfield was bred by Nick Alexander’s father Cyril, I believe one of the last mares, possibly the last, that he bred.
Little Glenshee was a robust mare and I’d expect her to produce some good chasing stock. There was not a lot of her when she first started racing, but she bulked up no end as she aged and rather outgrew her name!
January 2, 2018 at 22:27 #1335413I met Terimon at a stallion parade at Uttoxeter in the good old days when Sir Stan ran it, so I always had a fondness for Little Glenshee.She had a crashing fall one day when I was listening on racing radio and was so relieved to hear she was ok afterwards. Can’t believe that I backed a Nick Alexander outsider at Ayr today only for Lucy to ride the other Alexander horse into 2nd place at 50/1!! Feel a bit emotional at the thought of Little Glenshee having beautiful babies [get a grip woman!!].
January 3, 2018 at 09:56 #1335435I presume the outsider you backed was Up Helly Aa King, in which case you were definitely on the wrong one as Nick had said in his blog that he was ‘barely ready’. This one suffered a near fatal injury at Hexham last season but the vets did a great job. Incidentally John Hunt got the pronunciation wrong in commentary as ‘Up Helly A A’ rather than ‘Up Helly Aa’ which is the Shetland Fire Festival held on the last Tuesday in January.
January 12, 2018 at 13:45 #1337012PLANET NINE was a fair third at Catterick yesterday. It’s taken time this season but the penny is starting to drop over hurdles.
On Saturday WAITING PATIENTLY puts his unbeaten chasing record on the line against the likes of Josses Hill, Smad Place and God’s Own at Kempton. This one is on the way up and probably better than his current 156 rating giving him every chance here.
BIG RIVER takes in the Listed Novices Chase at Warwick. Presumably back on track after his heart scare, Lucinda Russell’s gelding would have every chance if at his best.
The weather forecast is favourable so we should be back at Kelso on Sunday after losing the two December meetings to frost.
COOLE HALL looks a class better than the others in the opening staying novices’ hurdle.
Of the list horses SOME REIGN has his chance in the two mile novices’ hurdle, but after refusing to race at Musselburgh he came up short last time. At his best he can win this.
Two decent races on the card with a Class 2 two mile handicap hurdle followed by a Class 2 middle distance handicap chase. In the latter contest CARALINE had struggled for a while but made a return to form at Wetherby on Boxing Day and in that form has every chance.
THOMOND makes his debut for the Alexander stable in the hunters’ chase. Only five runners here but all are capable of winning hunter events on their day and it makes for an interesting end to the card.
March 1, 2018 at 16:23 #1344452moehat said:
I met Terimon at a stallion parade at Uttoxeter in the good old days when Sir Stan ran it, so I always had a fondness for Little Glenshee.
Clair Alexander reports that Little Glenshee has given birth to a filly foal by Blue Bresil. One to watch out for in the future.
A temporary lull in National Hunt action due to the horrible weather, so I’ll do an update on Horses To Follow performance and prospects in the next couple of days.
Rob
March 1, 2018 at 19:42 #1344473Thanks Rob; heck; I’ve gone all gooey eyed hearing that #whatami…
March 4, 2018 at 13:54 #1344748With a lull due to the snowy weather it gives a chance to catch up with performances to date:
BAL DE RIO – L, L, L – A tad frustrating to date but has plenty of ability and can find a race, possibly on good ground.
BEYOND THE CLOUDS – w4/6, w2/5, w7/1 – I’m not sure some have cottoned on to how good this one is. Beat the southern challengers on soft ground that wouldn’t have shown him at his best at Musselburgh. Very decent.
BIGIRONONHISHIP – L – Faded to a stand still on the run in over 3m 2f at Carlisle with no report of an ailment, so presumably his stamina gave out in testing going.
BIG RIVER – w11/5, L, L, w6/4 – Heart problems earlier in the season, but looked back to his best recently. Entered in the RSA at Cheltenham but more significantly in the Midlands National.
CELTIC FLAMES – L, L, w5/2, L, L, L – Made a very promising chasing debut when winning at Hexham, but below that in the main since. However, should have won at Musselburgh but for a misjudgement by Derek Fox and there is a staying chase iwn in him.
CLOUDY DREAM – L, L ,L,L – A twilight animal consistently finding one too good. Presumably aimed at the Ryanair at Cheltenham but once again there will probably be noe or two too good.
COCKLE BAY – Not yet run
FAGAN – L – Run behind Black Corton doesn’t look half as bad as I thought and he will be waiting for good ground.
FLY RORY FLY – Yet to appear for his new stable
JONNIESOFA – w 11/4, L –A very promising novice chaser. Well held in a 3 runner ebvent at Haydock, but that course in a bog is no fun.
JUST MINDED – L, L, L, L – Running as if he has a problem.
LADY SAMBACK – Entered once but withdrawn due to the state of the ground.
PLANET NINE – L, L, L, w11/2, w3/1 – Has come into his own when presented with a stamina test
SIMONE – L,L – Well below par at Musselburgh last time and jury is out right now.
SOME REIGN – L, w1/2, L, L, L – Another graduate of ‘that contest’ at Kelso. Won well next time but not reached that level since and temperament is a question.
TESTIFY – w11/4, w5/2 w8/15 – Very useful novice chaser who has gone under the radar a bit. Five entries at Cheltenham and worth an interest in his chosen engagement as he has done nothing wrong to date.
THOMOND – L, L – Below expectations in two hunter chases and a point. That said, he has been one who has popped in an unexpected decent performance in the past so not a lost cause.
TOTAL ASSETS – L,L,L,L – Not running badly but handicapper may have her measure. That said she goes well at Kelso and there will be opportunities at the Borders course.
WAITING PATIENTLY – w4/5, w13/8, w2/1 – Saw off a class field at Ascot, including a most determined Cue Card, and looks as good a chaser as has come out of the North for some years. If the ground is soft and he turns up for the Ryanair he would take some beating.
WEYMSS POINT – L, w7/1, L – Won well at Wetherby and not disgraced under a penalty when third there next time.Runs – 52
Wins – 18 (34.6%)
Returns – 60.22 (115.8%)Very pleasing win percentage and returns to date. Good that there are a few good ground horses for the spring.
- AuthorPosts
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.