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Norfolk stakes 2018

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Viewing 15 posts - 1 through 15 (of 24 total)
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  • #1355402
    • Total Posts 5768

    KONCHEK 7/1

    As i said in 2yo summary thread at notebook forum this a smart type while long term 6f be his bag i think can win here before going to Morny.Last start was drawn out in car park at Sandown but ran a blinder i think he be hard to beat.

    • Total Posts 638

    Agree mate a true class horse in the making who is suprebly bred, can’t why he can’t run a massive race and at 7/1 has to be worth a bet. Also agree that he ran incredibly well at Sandown given the draw/trip he had.

    • Total Posts 8280

    I think this race is ripe for Shang Shang Shang. My sole concern is if conditions made it a bigger stamina test.

    The fact that Wesley Ward pitches her in against colts surely suggests she is well regarded.

    Sergei Prokofiev is seemingly Coventry bound and although Konchek ran quite well last time in defeat, the form looked tighter than I would like to see.

    The colts will have to concede weight and Shang Shang Shang clocked a fast time on debut, just 0.18 seconds slower than Lady Aurelia in her year on 51.03 seconds for the 4 and a half furlong trip. Not quite making all, it didn’t take her long to take command and she was well ahead of the second who closed up a little for heavy pressure but couldn’t get there. The third horse was miles back. The runner up Moonlight Romance went on to Belmont Park for a 5F maiden and absolutely hosed up, coming right away from her field almost without coming off the bridle at all. It looked a good boost to the form of Shang Shang Shang and with her Equibase rating of 101 she has put up a very powerful for her first run.

    This was her debut effort:-

    I’ve stuck a few quid on Shang Shang Shang and I reckon a Ward winner earlier in the form of Chelsea Cloisters, plus any hint that Shang Shang Shang is better, will see her price collapse from 11/2 and she’s one of my top fancies this week.

    Wesley Ward is 4/7 and 57% this past fortnight, so confidence will surely be strong for his team at the Royal meeting.

    Shang Shang Shang 11/2 hopefully for a Shang(High)

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    • Total Posts 803

    Stats up to 2017 (not including Sioux Nation)

    14/14 – Previous winners over 5f
    14/14 – Had at least 1 previous run
    13/14 – Won their previous race
    13/14 – Had a RPR of 106+
    12/14 – Had never raced at Ascot before
    11/14 – Foaled in March or April
    9/14 – Favourites placed
    8/14 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
    4/14 – Returned a double-figure price
    3/14 – Winning favourites
    3/14 – Ran at Windsor last time out
    9 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 7-12 (inc)
    The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 6/1

    • Total Posts 2614

    If Sergei indeed goes Coventry, I’ll be on the American filly for this too Steve.

    I’ve played Ward 3+ winners at 8/1 and Ward 4+ winners at 33/1 for this years Royal ascot. I had it introduced to the markets and thought both of those prices, particularly the former, is value.

    This looks a strong group he’s bringing over.

    • Total Posts 8280

    I think it’s pretty much set in stone that Sergei Prokofiev goes to the Coventry now.

    Only Bet365 are quoting him for the Norfolk and that is NRNB.

    Coral have Shang Shang Shang 6/1 for the Norfolk and my nephew will be heading in tomorrow morning on my behalf for a top up.

    Wesley Ward had runners in all 12 of the 2YO contests at the Keeneland meeting where he likes to start the 2YO’s he may take to Royal Ascot. The first two were beaten but the next 10 2YO races were landed by Ward runners, so his team looks useful this season. By contrast, I think the British and Irish teams look to have fewer good looking ones in the 5F races,

    6/1 may look massive on Tuesday evening.

    As the Bay City Rollers sang:-

    Well we sang shang-a-lang as we ran with the gang
    Doin’ doo wop be dooby do ay
    We were all in the news
    With our blue suede shoes
    And our dancin’ the night away

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    • Total Posts 26480

    Never had you down as a Bay SCity Rollers fan, Steve.

    value is everything
    • Total Posts 8280

    Some bookies have woken up regarding Shang Shang Shang and cut her to 4/1. Coral still go 6/1 despite the Caution £20 going on.

    I can’t see how she goes off bigger than 3/1 come the day, so it’s strongly advised to get ahead of the late mug money and save yourself the need for a bigger stake to win the same amount of profit.

    Nothing is ever guaranteed of course but I would rather take 6/1 Shang Shang Shang, than take 1/2 on Saxon Warrior for the Irish Derby, when he’s not won at the trip and was an odds-on loser at Epsom.

    It would hardly be a shocker to see Ward’s filly blitz the field for speed and I think Ward looks to have quite a strong team this year.

    Fill your boots at 6/1 with Coral.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    • Total Posts 2614

    I’ve been holding off on the race despite liking the Ward horse’s race and the vibes.

    With him being cut elsewhere, I’ve played him at 6s. Would have held out and missed the boat had I not seen your post so cheers Steve.

    Let’s hope his natural speed is just too good. The cruising speed of a yank two year old is usually the difference in these Ascot races.

    • Total Posts 8280

    It seems Sergei Prokofiev is more likely to run here now. He’s weak in the Coventry betting and has re=appeared in the betting for this race, as low as 7/4 in places.

    If he’s not good enough for the Coventry, I am not too concerned about him here and the form of his latest win hasn’t worked out very well with the previous winners who have run since getting beaten and looking ordinary.

    Even with Sergei Prokofiev back in the betting mix, Shang Shang Shang is 4/1 (Best Price) with Coral now and generally 3/1 and 7/2 elsewhere, so the advice on taking 6/1 seems likely to pay off. Chelsea Cloisters is 9/4 now, so should she win the Queen Mary, surely Shang Shang Shang will contract.

    Can’t wait for the meeting now.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    • Total Posts 8280

    Why are some shyster firms offering Sergei Prokofiev (As low as 7/4) for the Norfolk, without NRNB, when he is running in the Coventry tomorrow?

    Come on ITV Racing, lay into these jokers instead of spouting the obvious pish week in week out.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    Nathan HughesNathan Hughes
    • Total Posts 21533

    I see The Paddocks runs here instead of the Coventry where Hannon was hinting at. I think 6f for the horse myself but I suppose if they go too fast like in the Kings Stand it could play to 6f stamina.

    Member since March 2008
    • Total Posts 8280

    After Chelsea Cloisters’ no show, surely Shang Shang Shang will be opposed now?

    I feel Shang Shang Shang looked Wesley’s best filly after clocking a cracking time and the runner up slucied up next time.

    That runner up Moonlight Romance is my pick in the Windsor Castle because she won pretty much on the bridle next time out.

    Ward disappointments aside, I am confident Shang Shang Shang con do much better than today’s filly and will probably drift out to 6’s or 7’s now, with punters being very quick to get on or off a ship as it lists one way or the other. Man the lifeboats or trust the Captain?

    I’ll stand with the Captain and go down with the ship, glug, glug, glug…..or Land Ahoy?

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    • Total Posts 2263

    To be fair to CC she didn’t start as well as Ward’s normally do…looked like she missed it a touch.

    On some occasions you’d take it that Shang Shang Shang must be Ward’s no.1 filly? I mean she’s the one he’s put against the geldings?

    Doesn’t seem to be the same hype about her tho?

    No big view on this one, might throw some money on Charming Kid- decent on debut, fahey has done very well with his two yos this year, and his two in the Coventry finished 4th and 6th at 25s and 33s….

    Wide open race.

    Twitter: Jackh1092
    Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

    • Total Posts 8280

    I notice that Shang Shang Shang wears first time blinkers as Chelsea Cloisters did.

    It didn’t work for Chelsea Cloisters and I don’t quite get the thinking.

    The Timeform blurb for the Norfolk states that “Shang Shang Shang comes with a big reputation”, while I was going purely on visual impression and the time being really close to the figure Lady Aurelia clocked in her day.

    Vintage Brut is tipped by Timeform and he did well at Sandown after being overtaken and hemmed in a bit at a key stage. He had to wait for gaps and squeeze through to come and win it.

    It was tight between the 1-2-3 in the National Stakes and you can argue the case on who will emerge top this time. The ground was a bit softish and Vintage Brut had the form on soft from his Thirsk debut. Konchek finished well at Sandown and I think he may be the best who ran there as time passes. My worry for Vintage Brut is that he seems sparely made and Konchek looks the more traditional burly sprinting type.

    Should sort the wheat from the chaff one way or the other but Konchek could be the best prospect as a 3YO.

    Good luck everyone.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

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