Non Handicaps – should maidens be included?

[billion]

Another system dusted down and should interest the non handicap lovers.

Gee, I must be bored today sorting out these odd ball systems but the feed back (if any) could be interesting and of course it may have some attraction to any followers of The Majestic.

Non Handicap races ONLY!

We already know from previous postings elsewhere NURSERY races are handicaps so they are excluded but checking todays cards and not having any qualifying races I wondered if MAIDENS should be included.

So, we have NON HANDICAP races but to a minimum value of £4,000. Cuts out some of the rubbish I guess.

LESS than 10 runners (why on earth do these people not say a Maximum of 9 is beyond me)

Right – Non Handicaps – Min. Value £4,000 – Max. of 9 runners.

Any possible selection must have finished either 3rd or 4th in the previous race. If there are more than one possible selection 3rd takes preference over 4th

Here we go again – must have run the last race within 30 days (Boring, boring, boring) I am going to stick my neck out again and say within the current month or the previous month).

That’s it, easy peasy, lemon squeezy. Cricky you will think I have been on the wobbly water. Too much caffeine, too many black coffee’s I reckon.

And so checking todays race cards the only one I can find is 2.40 at Pontefract, Value £7,000 but is a MAIDEN however there are only 7 declared.

Blow me down if there are Two possibles, both ended there last race in 3rd.

KING KURT and NORWEGIAN LIBERTY

I wonder what the prices are and if it is worth DUTCHING them

Billy's Outback Shack

[billion]

That was quickly sorted NORWEGIAN LIBERTY is a non runner leaving KING KURT at 2/1 as the sole selection.

LOST

I wonder!

Good job I kept my money in my pocket – the value of watching new ideas cannot be faulted

Billy's Outback Shack

[billion]

August 5

Looking at race values today it can only be concluded they are a heap of low grade rubbish.

For this system anyway.

Billy's Outback Shack

[billion]

Friday August 6

LADY ROYALE 7.05 Musselburgh is the outsider of 4

LOST

Billy's Outback Shack

[andycap]

Maidens should definitely be included but without the form figures or number of runners.
I have been using maiden races as a betting medium with a little success for quite a while now.
I include all maiden races and back the first and second favourites as forecast in the Racing Post.
1 point on each selection
If the odds are less than 6/4 no bet
As you know many maidens are won by horses having their
first outing in public and the betting forecast in the Racing Post is often a good guide to what is expected of them.
Some nice winners can be found using this method
e.g BIONDETTI Won 10-1 plus many more at decent odds

Paper trade for a while and see what you think

Good luck
andycap

[billion]

G’day

Andycap

,

Thanks for your reply, I did feel they should not be treated in isolation.

The system you mention has jogged the memory bank, I was told of one either the same or very similar a long while ago and it is good to hear you make a profit from it.

Billy's Outback Shack

[andycap]

Hi Billion
Your right it was a system I used years ago and recently rediscovered. I’ve used it for a few months and it is still making a profit not a lot but profit is hard to come by lately and it has helped keep me in the black.
Good luck
andycap

[billion]

Well I am certainly pleased to hear someone remains in the black,

andycap

and do agree it has been a hard summer but then again they always feel that way.

Billy's Outback Shack

[Pompete]

Hi

Billion

, although this is a general post and not directed to you personally I’m always interested when people use terms such as ‘low grade rubbish’ to exclude certain types of races from selection methods.

If we consider the following:

Favourites All Flat Races 2004 – 2010

Race Type – Strike Rate – Level Stake Profit

Selling Stakes – 35.9% –

Selling Handicaps – 26.0% –

Group 1 – 36.3 –

Amateur Races – 25.2% –

Claiming Stakes – 37.2% –

Group 2 – 33.5% –

Group 3 – 33.6% –

Maidens – 41.2% –

Handicaps – 27.3% –

4 of the top 5 and indeed the only 2 to have shown a profit over this period would I guess fall into the ‘low grade rubbish’ category.

So I do wonder where such perceived wisdom comes from?

[billion]

All different areas of expertise I guess

Pompete

and it just goes to show one should keep an open mind.

Billy's Outback Shack

[CheltenhamSpecialist]

Favourites All Flat Races 2004 – 2010

Race Type – Strike Rate – Level Stake Profit

Selling Stakes – 35.9% –

Selling Handicaps – 26.0% –

Group 1 – 36.3 –

Amateur Races – 25.2% –

Claiming Stakes – 37.2% –

Group 2 – 33.5% –

Group 3 – 33.6% –

Maidens – 41.2% –

Handicaps – 27.3% –

I’ve always believed that backing favourites blindly is the quickest way to the poorhouse, I’d be most interested to see a similar breakdown of NH racing if you happen to have one……Also Irish Flat & NH?…..am I pushing my luck?

[Pompete]

Cheltenhamspecialist, this has nothing to do with backing favourites, it is just what it is people can do (or ignore) what they want with it.

But, as you asked:

Favourites All NH Races 2004 – 2010

Race Type – Strike Rate – Level Stake Profit

Novice Handicap Chase 30.6%

Selling Hurdle 30.5%

Novice Chase 47.5%

Novice Handicap Hurdle 27.4%

*All Class 1 Races 31.9%

*All Class 2 Races 29.8%

Handicap Chase 28.1%

Novice Hurdle 45.0%

Handicap Hurdle 26.1%

* A breakdown of Graded Races is n/a

[CheltenhamSpecialist]

Thanks Pompete, much as I suspected.
As you said, I realise this info was not about backing favourites …or not.
I was looking for this info re another thread

[Pompete]

Although I don’t wish to come across as someone banging on about this here are some stats using Adrain Massey’s Top Rated Selections since 2001 as a benchmark.

Race Type – No of Selections – Strike Rate – % Return to L/S

Selling Handicap (Flat) 1714 21%

Claiming Stakes (Flat) 5036 33%

Selling Sakes (Flat) 3909 28%

Selling Hurdle 2829 23%

Stakes (Flat) 8988 29%

Handicap (Flat) 40182 20%

Other Hurdle 3019 32%

Novice Chase 5398 41%

Amateur (Flat) 1380 21%

Handicap Chase 9324 23%

Maiden (Flat) 8219 35%

Novice Hurdle 8030 36%

Novice Handicap Chase 2197 21%

Handicap Hurdle 8366 20%

Novice Handicap Hurdle 2496 18%

Group Stakes (Flat)1721 23%

Other Chase 1379 28%

Hunter Chase 643 30%

NH Flat 269 21%

Taking these stats at face value it would again seem that in terms of profitability (given a decent system) the ‘Rubbish Races’ come out on top again.

As I mentioned in an earlier post people can use or ignore these stats as they wish. But, it seems to me the dogma that only betting in better class races is the road to riches seems just that – dogma. And, imv the biggest asset we should have here in Ward 7 is an open mind.

However, I won’t bore anyone by going on about this again

Note: At Level Stake a return of 100% = Breakeven

[Author]

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