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Johnj, I think we need to agree to disagree. Although I must add Wins Now had winning hurdling form in heavy ground so I dont think the ground can be put up as an excuse. Scotsirish beat him fair and square – and Scotsirish is average at best.
Until there is a supply of young Irish trained horses capable of running up winning sequences in their own graded events prior to crossing the sea, I would always be willing to lay them in the Championship races over here.
But best of luck if you have backed them both ante-post.
Mansun,
Just watched that race on ATR archive, Pedrobob has Wins Covered, Carberry only starts pushing when McCoy goes for Wins now, PB then pecks at the final fence but the race was his a long way out. I hope he gets good ground at Cheltenham.
JohnJ
Well thanks to a very helpful member on here and tow nice winners from Nicky Henderson I backed Noland at 16/1 for the Arkle…..As I said before if he wins tomorrow you bank on him being promoted to near favouritism. He wins comfortably they will wipe him off the boards.
I honestly don’t know how forward he is but I was told 6 weeks ago by a personal friend of John Egan’s that the horse was flying and will win 1st time out. My main worry is if he is right why oh why would the bookies offer 16/1……….Denman was as low as 5/1 for the Gold Cup before the Hennessy………
Third hand news is normally best ignored but if he is right then I have won a watch as they say and after NH’s winners yesterday it cost me sweet FA in real terms if he fails miserably.
The way PN has talked about this horse and what my own eyes told me at Cheltenham makes me think he is definitely something special.
All these rating and whatnot mean nothing to me….at Cheltenham he was a big green baby and under pressure a long way from home……..when he hit that hill I could not believe my eyes the way he all of a sudden picked up…………have a few quid EW guys it’s only money and PN being PN, if anyone can get this horse primed and ready for the Arkle at Cheltenham it’s him.
Rather discouraging that Noland has been declared with a tongue tie for the Newbury race (still subject to inspection).
He never wore one before his layoff and it seems odd that any problem with his wind hasn’t been sorted out whilst he’s been away.
Whatever the reason, I wouldn’t want to back a horse with a potential wind problem ante post for Cheltenham.
AP
Going to go tommorow, my first trip racing since last Spring so will be seriously annoyed if they abandon
No surprise but Newbury is off tomorrow. Wonder where Paul will go with Noland now?
Pete
There are suitable races for Noland next week at Fontwell on Thurs 24th (2M 2F beginners chase) and Newbury on Fri 25th (2m 1f novice chase).
AP
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I think the ratings support a widely held belief that this horse has a tremendous change of gear. He is flat bred and I remember backing him at Wincanton on his debut.
Usually an electric turn of foot in good ground in 2m chases, plus a 160+ hurdle rating are enough to make me follow them till they lose.
I’d dispute the "electric turn of foot" – so much so that i wouldn’t even have him on my mind for the Arkle on anything faster than proper soft ground.
Rather discouraging that Noland has been declared with a tongue tie for the Newbury race (still subject to inspection).
He never wore one before his layoff and it seems odd that any problem with his wind hasn’t been sorted out whilst he’s been away.
Whatever the reason, I wouldn’t want to back a horse with a potential wind problem ante post for Cheltenham.
AP
I wouldn’t be too discouraged. PFN seems to use them as almost ‘standard kit’ – not saying that every horse he runs wears one, but I notice a lot of his do. Kauto Star always has a tongue tie and a more clean-winded horse it would be hard to find.
I think the ratings support a widely held belief that this horse has a tremendous change of gear. He is flat bred and I remember backing him at Wincanton on his debut.
Usually an electric turn of foot in good ground in 2m chases, plus a 160+ hurdle rating are enough to make me follow them till they lose.
I’d dispute the "electric turn of foot" – so much so that i wouldn’t even have him on my mind for the Arkle on anything faster than proper soft ground.
I find that an amazing statement….PN must have marbles for brains running a top class horse on totally unsuitable ground when he could run in a weeks time ….especially after a long lay off.
His action tells me soft would not be a problem to him, he is hardly a daisy cutter. The fact he won the Tolworth at Sandown on soft prior to Cheltenham tells me he is happy enough on the ground. It is doubtful PN would have him 100% at Sandowns with Chelteham on his mind and the horse won comfortably. I think you’re way of target but everyone to his own.
If he has sound I think the layoff will have done him more good than harm…….he was very green looking at Cheltenham as he was at Sandown…..IMO he will be a better horse with cut in the ground than he was on good ground.
Of course I could be 100% off the mark and the layoff may have taken the edge of him………he may not be anywhere as good as he was but only time will tell. PN says he’s special and that is good enough for me..not many horses as green as him would win a top race at Cheltenham and with normal improvement he is likely to take all the beating no matter where he runs.
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I think the ratings support a widely held belief that this horse has a tremendous change of gear. He is flat bred and I remember backing him at Wincanton on his debut.
Usually an electric turn of foot in good ground in 2m chases, plus a 160+ hurdle rating are enough to make me follow them till they lose.
I’d dispute the “electric turn of foot” – so much so that i wouldn’t even have him on my mind for the Arkle on anything faster than proper soft ground.
I find that an amazing statement….PN must have marbles for brains running a top class horse on totally unsuitable ground when he could run in a weeks time ….especially after a long lay off.
His action tells me soft would not be a problem to him, he is hardly a daisy cutter. The fact he won the Tolworth at Sandown on soft prior to Cheltenham tells me he is happy enough on the ground. It is doubtful PN would have him 100% at Sandowns with Chelteham on his mind and the horse won comfortably. I think you’re way of target but everyone to his own.
If he has sound I think the layoff will have done him more good than harm…….he was very green looking at Cheltenham as he was at Sandown…..IMO he will be a better horse with cut in the ground than he was on good ground.
Of course I could be 100% off the mark and the layoff may have taken the edge of him………he may not be anywhere as good as he was but only time will tell. PN says he’s special and that is good enough for me..not many horses as green as him would win a top race at Cheltenham and with normal improvement he is likely to take all the beating no matter where he runs.
FoF
A couple of quotes:
P Nicholls
“John Hales would love to see him develop into an Arkle hope – so would I – but I think he might need further than 2m, as he was always staying on well at that trip over hurdles“
And from the Supreme:
“At the last I thought I might catch one of these to be fourth – Ruby Walsh, jockey.
Ruby hadn’t ridden the horse before and I said whatever you do don’t burst him down the hill. He really wants further already”Fair enough, if you think that demonstrates the horse is an Arkle candidate on the normal Festival ground, but neither the above, or any of his hurdles form, would persuade me to support him.
I don’t have the slightest worry over fences that he will be fine at 2 miles. The fact is he would need to get all of 2m2f or further to win the Arkle.
I didn’t think he traveled particularly well in the Supreme Novice which may have been down to immaturity more than the requirement for an extra 1/2 mile e.g.
Hopefully we will see a much more complete horse at Cheltenham and if he does travel better I can’t see 2 miles being a problem. He has already shown he has sufficient toe at the end of his races to win in top class so I have no worries in that department.
What would you read into Ruby’s quote? He’s the man who knows best IMO.
Wasn’t he saying how surprised he was when the horse all of a sudden took of under him and went past everything like they were standing still? Like many good but immature horses do….Certainly never said he wasn’t suited by 2 miles over fences……….however time will tell
I was looking for something completerly diffeent Reet and cam across this"
Quote Paul Nicholls, registering his 11th Frestival victory, commented: “That was a great start to the week.
“His strong point is at the finish as he always finishes his races so strongly.
“The rain we had earlier today has probably just slowed the ground down a bit which has helped him.
“Ruby [Walsh] has given him a superb ride. He’s given him time to get into his stride and hasn’t rushed him at all.â€
I think the ratings support a widely held belief that this horse has a tremendous change of gear. He is flat bred and I remember backing him at Wincanton on his debut.
Usually an electric turn of foot in good ground in 2m chases, plus a 160+ hurdle rating are enough to make me follow them till they lose.
I’d dispute the "electric turn of foot" – so much so that i wouldn’t even have him on my mind for the Arkle on anything faster than proper soft ground.
As he won the supreme novice hurdles on GS i think he wouldn’t need it soft for a Arkle!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
As for a wind problem he hasn’t got one but he does take alot of work to get him fit so maybe PN thought he would give him a little extra help…
Also don’t take it that he will run in the Arkle i think we don’t want another Granit Jack so if he only gets one run in before Cheltenham then he will probably by pass it………………..L Hales
There was a lot to like about the way noland rallied up the hill in the supreme novice and reckon if he can translate his hurdle form to chasing then he definitely should be there or thereabouts an the arkle.
Prior to his wednesday entry he had been backed right across the markets for the arkle and nicholls has said in dubai at the weekend that he is quite excited about getting him back out racing. He has wasted no time in finding him another race after wednesdays abandonment, out to run at leicester on tuesday in a decent looking class 3 field.
Theres nothing to me that looks home and hosed in the arkle at present and noland doesnt look a bad prospect if he’s back to his old self.
nobby (noland) is set to run monday 21st at folkstone in the 210 if all goes well ……..
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As he won the supreme novice hurdles on GS i think he wouldn’t need it soft for a Arkle!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Beckster
It is precisely how he ran in the Supreme that raises the doubt about his ability to win an Arkle on anything better than soft. Under the cosh from a long way out, he was beaten everywhere bar on the line; not the kind of form you would expect from a horse sharp enough to win a normal Arkle.
There must be far better options for one with so little experience too, though I’m sure connections will do what’s best for the horse. Whatever happens I wish him the very best of luck, his owners and yourself are certainly due some.
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