- This topic has 528 replies, 108 voices, and was last updated 13 years, 7 months ago by
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Seriously Ginge, agree with your handicap theory, never bought into the line about 11,10 being impossible to win a national with, but with so many being cleverly campaigned to attain a favourable weight it seems natural to consider better handicapped sorts. Re. Denman, can’t help but thinking he’s sadly regressing now, seems to be bottoming out late on in top class races now, would be astounded if he can be effective in a national, I can’t help but hope they retire him after this campaign.
Brilliant work again Ginge,i had a feeling you would be doing something statistical! The Grand National is a law unto itself and is only ran once a year so the form book can be confusing/misleading,horses both good and bad can either excel themselves or dissapoint,you really need your selection to have survived a circuit before you can gauge wether they are up for it or not,then of course they can fall or be brought down or just run out of stamina,thats what makes the Grand National
The Best race in the world
and if you have money riding on a horse who is still jumping sweet and travelling with a mile to go the thrill doesn"t get any better! Memoirs of
Royal Athlete
at 66/1 come flooding back!
Denman can’t get the trip…. he’s by Presenting.
Oh come off it, that is too simplistic.
May be the Irish Grand National winner Niche Market shouldn’t run then.
that Irish National was over 29f, 7f less than a national. That was the absolute maximum mate, and he was well handicapped that day too. I’m unconvinced any Presentings would get 4m4f in a top race, especially off top weight, even Denman – whose jumping can go to pot when he’s tired. They should retire him after this season.
Brilliant work again Ginge,i had a feeling you would be doing something statistical! The Grand National is a law unto itself and is only ran once a year so the form book can be confusing/misleading,horses both good and bad can either excel themselves or dissapoint,you really need your selection to have survived a circuit before you can gauge wether they are up for it or not,then of course they can fall or be brought down or just run out of stamina,thats what makes the Grand National
The Best race in the world
and if you have money riding on a horse who is still jumping sweet and travelling with a mile to go the thrill doesn"t get any better! Memoirs of
Royal Athlete
at 66/1 come flooding back!
It was an old piece of work TAPK, with a little bit of rejigging. Not made just for your benifit.
Over the years the Grand National has been good for me too, as I expect it has for many here. It is fairly easy for a horse racing enthusiast to make a profit over the years, because there are so many mugs who judge who to bet on by damn lies and statistics which do not add up when breaking them down. It is certainly not the lottery some make out. Horses can no longer be hunted around for a curcuit and then make ground.
Value Is Everythingthat Irish National was over 29f, 7f less than a national. That was the absolute maximum mate, and he was well handicapped that day too. I’m unconvinced any Presentings would get 4m4f in a top race, especially off top weight, even Denman – whose jumping can go to pot when he’s tired. They should retire him after this season.
Denman is a better jumper than you give him credit for. When he’s in A1 condition Denman makes very few mistakes. You don’t need an out and out stayer to win the Aintree National. You need something that has done well at 3m2f. Over the last 20 years, the race that has probably produced more National winners is the Hennessey.
In my opinion Denman ran within 3 lbs of his best at Newbury. Sure, he might deteriorate as an 11 year old; but there is little sign of that yet. Phil Smith treats the race as a special case. He drops the top weights handicap marks in order to get more horses within the "handicap". That means it is absolutely certain Denman will be "well handicapped".
Value Is Everythingthe Grand National is a race for the useless who have no previous noteable wins,
I know I really shouldn’t rise to this, but here is a selection of some of the not notable wins of this year’s National field:
2 x Grand National
2 x Hennessy
2 x Becher Chase
Totesport Bowl
Aon Chase
Kim Muir
National Hunt Chase
Cotswold Chase (Pillar)
Scottish National
Welsh National
Irish National
Charlie Hall
Peter Marsh
Tommy Whittle
Badger Ales
Topham Trophy
GrimthorpeWorthless, the lot of ’em!
Phil Smith treats the race as a special case. He drops the top weights handicap marks in order to get more horses within the "handicap". That means it is absolutely certain Denman will be "well handicapped".
Nail, head, hit, Ginger. Phil Smith has made such a virtue of trying to get as many horses inside the handicap proper, without distorting marks beyond the boundaries of plausibility in so doing.
Denman would present him with a tougher challenge in realising that aim once more, and a renewal with Denman atop the weights will almost certainly not have all 39 others carrying 10st 1lb or more unless the man takes complete leave of his senses. Nevertheless, it wouldn’t surprise me one iota were rivals ordinarily rated 25lb Denman’s inferior to receive maybe just 18-20lb from him in the National.
gc
Adoptive father of two. The patron saint of lower-grade fare. A gently critical friend of point-to-pointing. Kindness is a political act.
- Total Posts 17716
I agree with everything Mr Wilson says.
Anyway, Denman could never give weight to my fancy, Flaming Troll.
Mike
Tell me you’re kidding Mike
So what you are saying is Golden Miller (5) Gold Cups, L’Escargot (2) What A Myth, Mr Frisk, Rhyme n Reason, Aleverton, Jay Trump, Crisp, Highland Wedding, Aldaniti, Red Rum and dozens of others who ran well in the race were a bunch of has beens.
Never read so much garbage in all my life.
Depends on the individual on how high a pedestal you want to put him on but too good for the national wouldn’t enter Paul Nicholl’s head if he thought he had a chance of winning the race.
Read your history lads they accepted wau back in 2008 that Denman wouldn’t get the trip in a bus. Something Christian Williams said even before that.
Quite so and an old
daylightism springs to mindhandbags at dawn
however under present conditions
with slippery ice atlarge in the fields
a bun fight could prove dangerous
– with much more shocking things
on display than a hairy hand !Fist, Betlarge was joking,(hence the reference to Flaming Troll,) I fear Mr Wilson was not.
I agree with everything Mr Wilson says.
Anyway, Denman could never give weight to my fancy, Flaming Troll.
Mike
Tell me you’re kidding Mike
So what you are saying is Golden Miller (5) Gold Cups, L’Escargot (2) What A Myth, Mr Frisk, Rhyme n Reason, Aleverton, Jay Trump, Crisp, Highland Wedding, Aldaniti, Red Rum and dozens of others who ran well in the race were a bunch of has beens.
Never read so much garbage in all my life.
Depends on the individual on how high a pedestal you want to put him on but too good for the national wouldn’t enter Paul Nicholl’s head if he thought he had a chance of winning the race.
Read your history lads they accepted wau back in 2008 that Denman wouldn’t get the trip in a bus. Something Christian Williams said even before that.
Back of the net.
Mike
Were I to own him, the National would be top priority for Denman.
1) Smith would undoubtedly make the handicapping terms attractive, possibly
very
attractive…
2) …but whatever – Denman can carry big weights and has a rock-solid constitution.
3) Aintree’s fences have been considerably emasculated compared to years gone by but Denman jumps well and corrects himself well anyway.
4) Whether he "stays" is moot. His class, handicap advantage and jumping would surely put him right in at the business end. His bravery would do the rest.
5) It’s once-in-a-lifetime for heaven’s sake – go for it!
Mike
Think everyone knows that Denman runing in the Grand National would be suicide, the horse is too prestigious in Racing history to be used as a throw around in a 4 mile joke of a race.
Could be worse. He could be in absolutely any flat race in the world?
Were I to own him, the National would be top priority for Denman.
1) Smith would undoubtedly make the handicapping terms attractive, possibly
very
attractive…
2) …but whatever – Denman can carry big weights and has a rock-solid constitution.
3) Aintree’s fences have been considerably emasculated compared to years gone by but Denman jumps well and corrects himself well anyway.
4) Whether he "stays" is moot. His class, handicap advantage and jumping would surely put him right in at the business end. His bravery would do the rest.
5) It’s once-in-a-lifetime for heaven’s sake – go for it!
Mike
I’m glad you don’t own him then!
He is not, and never has been, a National horse. Just because he can carry weights doesn’t mean he should, especially when he has nothing to prove.
If people only chose to remember horses failures when they retire, then that’s their problem. Give the horse a shot. If he runs well, then great, if not then hey, who cares? Doesn’t make him any less of a legend and doesn’t hurt his legacy at all. If people think less of the horse for not running well, then they don’t deserve the memory of a great horse.
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