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Fantastic work Gingertipster.
My earlier post was probably not articulated very well, but what I am trying to find out is how are the percentages of wins/places of horses below the 11stone threshold altered if those horses running from out of the handicap are taken out of the statistics?
If a horse is handicapped to carry 8st 12 but has to run off the minimum of 10stone then surely that horse has little or no chance of winning the race. (Bobbyjo excluded).
Those horses have a clear weight disadvantage, much more so than classier horses having to lump 11stone around Aintree.
Pre the Phil Smith era, very many horses were running from out of the handicap and they would be the first off my list of potential winners.
Your analysis is excellent, but would be even better if it were divided thus: those horses carrying 11stone and above; horses weighted from 10stone 13lbs to 10 stone 0 lbs but in the handicap proper; and those horses from out of the handicap.
As an aside, how the hell did Hi Cloy get allotted top weight?
Again, thanks for the excellent post.
P.S. Who was it a few years ago that posted the analysis of the negative influence of Strong Gale in the National? I found that fascinating and would like to revisit those stats.Indeed, those running from out of the handicap would be up against it, as automatic top weights were in the past. Don’t have the time for that research Corranard at the moment. I’d be interested if you had a go yourself.
Ah yes, I remember Bobbyjo well. Backed 5 horses, first 5 home. Sorry, very bad aftertiming there.
Value Is EverythingI think they just pulled him up because the ground was so bad. Which is good because he’s still a decent price. Not heard of any injuries or anything, but news from the stable would be good.
Very very sad news. Was convinced he’d win if he ran. So that gives me on my shortlist…
Notre Pere – won’t run if ground is dry
One Cool Cookie – dead
Deep Purple – withdrawn
Giles Cross – won’t make cutNot a good ante post year. I’ll need to go back to my very old list…
Very sad to hear about One Cool Cookie, expected a big run from him as well. Had a soft spot for him the last few years, a real shame! RIP
On a separate note, FAO of Ginger & Corranard. As far as your weight queries go, since 2000, 39 horses have ran from out of the handicap, but only 6 of those have finished with the best performance being from Brave Highlander, 4th in 2000 when 5lb wrong, and Supreme Charm, 5th in 2002 when 2lb wrong.
1999 and earlier, is when a large number, and often the majority of the field, as you know, ran from out the handicap.
Obviously well known that Bobbyjo was 14lb wrong, but the 2nd that day, Blue Charm, was 16lb wrong also. 8 of the first 11 home were out the handicap also, including Feels Like Gold, 5th when 30lb wrong, and St Mellion Fairway, 9th when 32lb wrong.
I hope this is of some use to you.
Thinking State of Play might stand a good chance with an eye catching run last year and a decent weight this time around … looks one of the much tougher renewals this time around tho.
So many in with chances
Venture to Cognac… thank you for that info about horses from out of the handicap. Very interesting. When the jumps season is over I might go through all the stats, but right now my head hurts watching and rewatching races concerning this year’s contenders. Studying their form, plus looking at their breeding.
Very sad to hear about One Cool Cookie. I actually had a small bet on him today based mainly on his Becher run and his breeding – sire Old Vic and damsire Montelimar. At least Stan James are non runner no bet, so I don’t lose out.
But still my shortlist is far too long. Maybe others will drop out as well, saving me the problem of whittling down my list.
This year is a complete headache, isn’t it. I’ve been rewatching last years race, and there were actually a lot of no hopers in it. This time round I could make a case for most of the horses running, and I’ve just read an article about BecauseIcouldn’tsee, who was one that I had discounted because of his operation, and I fancy him as well now. It’s going to be a fantastic race, but I fear I’ve studied it for too long and got nowhere! I have, at least backed all the Old Vics, including, sadly the Cookie one.
lets go for it and see who can predict 1st,2nd,3rd in this years grandnational. 1st ballybriggs, 2nd hello bud, 3rd state of play. a bit of fun to read your trio after having 9 seconds at cheltenham.
lets go for it and see who can predict 1st,2nd,3rd in this years grandnational. 1st ballybriggs, 2nd hello bud, 3rd state of play. a bit of fun to read your trio after having 9 seconds at cheltenham.
Okay, I’m up for this this year 1,2,3 in my opinion is
Winner : What A Friend ( ran a great gold cup and if that race hasn’t taken too much from him could win).
Runner Up: Don’t Push It (followed same path as last time and his pertemps run looked satisfying to me).
Third spot :Bluesea Cracker ( J P McManus must think this has a real chance and so do I).
We don’t yet know what the going is going to be.
That will have a big say in the 1, 2, 3.Value Is EverythingI predict that I’ve backed @ a third of the field already and won’t even have one in the first four.
hi all new poster
my current bets via betfair are
becauseicouldntsee 36/1
majestic concorde 85/1
skippers brig 95/1my outsiders also on betfair to small stakes are
or noir de somoza 160/1
our monty 120/1
dooneys gate 200/1
surface to air 120/1No bets yet for me – not really sure – seems to be many in with a decent chance – a number of horses’ chances will obviously be ground dependant – like What a Friend, for example – any soft in the going i wouldn’t fancy that particular horse, but if it stays dry and ground is good then he must come into the equation.
But the weather looks like it’s on the change for the north-west -forecast wet for a few days this week – i’ll wait until Friday eve i think before first bet.
Frankie Figg as expected goes to the Topham instead.
Hells bells; O’Neil reckons they will be running Synchronized, so JP’s looking at 6 runners! Don’t think he’s had that many since 2005?
Forget guessing the first three; lets guess which JP horse will have which distinguishing cap!
White Cap – Don’t Push It
Green/White Star – Synchronized
Green/Gold Quarters – Bluesea Cracker
Red Cap – Arbor Supreme
Blue Cap – Can’t Buy Time
Yellow or Purple Cap – Quolibet
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