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I agree with what you say, Gingertipster, about weights carried especially in relation to the numerical disparity between horses carrying more than or less than 11 stone.
But out of interest, how many of those horses over the last 25 years carrying 10 stone were running from out of the handicap? I remember Lord Gyllene winning from a pound out of the handicap and Bobbyjo winning by fully a stone out.
But how do the percentages compare for horses running below 11 stone off a true mark (i.e from within the handicap proper) and horses running from 11 stone or above? If we weed out horses who were out of the handicap and were therefore running with a clear weight disadvantage (although it didn’t stop at least those two mentioned from winning), how close are the percentages then?
It’s just something that I would find stastically interesting, even though now, with the compressed handicap, it is no longer possible to make the cut from outside the handicap.Some great points raised and this is the hardest National I’ve ever seen to pick the winner of. Historically it was a piece of cake, pick 3/4 horses weighted between 10 st 4 and 10 st 12 and you had a very high % of winners (which I have). Pre compression of weights there were a significant number of horses ususlly out of the handicap and hence effectively had no chance, however all horses are now running off (or below their current BHB mark) and this will ensure that in future there can be a lot more Mon Mome results.
I can probably make a case for about 30 horses winning (which is ludicrous from a punting point of view) and hence have come down on the side of a well weighted tried and trusted "veteran" i.e. State who is a rock solid EW option, even though I’m fairly sure 1 or 2 will have its legs in a finish NB: – the problem is finding these 1 or 2.
Of the horses mentioned – Arbor Supreme is well weighted, but unreliable, Silver by Nature is 11 pound well in but appears ground dependent and The Midnight Club does not appear well weighted to me after its Bobbyjo exertions and is worse off in the GN in respect to Arbor Supreme and Oscar Time.
Roll Along? why not, if it came back to it’s former glories that would put it in the mix.
Ginger Tipster
‘It is the weight in relation to other horses that matters, not the actual weight carried.’
You make some good observations about weight carried and the stats you quote support you. However I firmly believe that there is a point in the weights scale that pretty much puts the horse out of contention. An extra pound in weight would have minimal effect on my time for running 100 meters, but then keep adding another pound and at some stage I wouldn’t even be able to walk 100 meters. Regarding the National an extra burden in weight is carried over 36 furlongs and this magnifies that extra burden. I always went along with the popular theory that the cut off point was 11 stone, I am not so sure after recent results but I still wouldn’t dream of backing a nag carrying in excess of 11-6 over the 36 furlongs of Aintree.
Having said the above I do agree that finding an horse well in at the weights is essential. Mistakes of the Handicapper are what we are looking for.
AKA Bobbyjo: that had to be the biggest handicapping cock up in the history of horse racing and I remember quite clearly my reactions at the time to see an horse which had won the Irish National carrying 11-4 (I think) being allocated less than 10 stone for Aintree. FILL YOUR BOOTS.
Dont forget the importance of the going, which makes ante post betting a nightmare.
If some miracle, which I don’t think will happen, the ground comes up Heavy (Oh, how I dream) then Bluesea Cracker, I feel would be worth a massive punt.
Looks like Can’t Buy Time, Piraya, Santa’s Son, That’s Rhythm, King Fontaine, Roll Along, Ornais, Quolibet, Grand Slam Hero, Nedzer’s Return, Synchronised & Midnight Chase are all coming out. All 200s+ on the machine, bar Synchronised at 180s. This means Skipper’s Brig should get a run and I reckon he has a huge shout. He’s 2lb well-in and beat one of the market leaders going away at the end.
I’m backing him now which means if he gets a run I’ll have 10 horses running for me…
Be surprised if Can’t Buy Time, Piraya and Roll Along were withdrawn; Can’t Buy Time especially.
In 1985 2 of the 40 runners carried 11-0 or more including 1 to be placed in the first 4, Corbiere who carried 11-10 to 3rd place.
1985 240 14 Corbiere 11-10 3rd
1986 640 04
1987 440 14 West Tip 11-7 4th
1988 340 24 Rhyme ‘N’ Reason 11-0 1st West Tip 11-7 4th
1989 240 14 The Thinker 11-10 3rd
1990 238 04
1991 640 14 Garrison Savannah 11-1 2nd
1992 440 14 Docklands Express 11-2 4th
1993 Void Void
1994 336 04
1995 435 14 Dubacilla 11-0 4th
1996 427 04
1997 136 04
1998 337 14 Suny Bay 12-0 2nd
1999 332 04
2000 1140 04
2001 540 14 Papillon 11-5 4th
2002 840 24 What’s Up Boys 11-6 2nd Kingsmark 11-9 4th
2003 740 04
2004 1039 14 Monty’s Pass 11-12 4th
2005 1240 24 Hedgehunter 11-1 1st Royal Auclair 11-10 2nd
2006 740 14 Hedgehunter 11-12 2nd
2007 1040 04
2008 1840 24 Snowy Morning 11-1 3rd Slim Pickings 11-3 4th
2009 1640 44 Mon Mome 11-0 1st Comply Or Die 11-6 2nd My Will 3rd 11-4 3rd State Of Play 11-2 4th
2010 1940 24 Don’t Push It 11-5 1st Black Apalachi 11-6 2nd425 170960 24100
12 17.7 24
2125 790960 76100
88 82.3 76
First Column = Year
Second Column = Number of runners who carried 11-0 or more and number of runners in race 240 means 2 of 40 runners carried 11-0 plus.
Third Column = Number of 11-0 or more who carried 11-0 or more to place 14 means 1 of the 4 to place carried 11-0 plus.
Fourth Column = Horses who carried 11-0 or more to place, weight, placing.In the last 25 runnings of the Grand National:
4 winners carried 11-0 or more = 16%2.4% of those who carried 11-0 or more won the National
If the 13 entries set to carry 11-0 or more run (out of 40) this year, and one of them wins, then the percentage will go up to 2.8%
21 winners carried less than 11-0 = 84%2.7% of those who carried less than 11-0 won the National
If the 13 entries set to carry 11-0 or more run (out of 40) this year, and one of them wins, then the percentage will go down to 2.6%
Only 170 of the 960 runners
carried 11-0 or more =
17.7%
of all runners
790 of the 960 runners
carried less than 11-0 =
82.3%
of all runners
24 of the 100 horses placed in the first 4 carried 11-0 or more = 24%
14.1% of those who carried 11-0 or more were placed
76 of the 100 horses placed in the first 4 carried less than 11-0 = 76%
9.6% of those who carried less than 11-0 were placed
Year Top Weight, Weight Carried, SP, Position
1985 Corbiere 11-10 9/1 3rd
1986 Essex (AT) 12-0 100/1
1987 Valencio (AT) 12-0 500/1 Bewley’s Hill (AT) 12-0 100/1
1988 West Tip 11-7 11/1 4th
1989 The Thinker 11-10 10/1 3rd
1990 Bonanza Boy 11-9 16/1
1991 Fraze (AT) 11-10 100/1
1992 Twin Oaks 11-7 9/1
1993 VOID
1994 Quirinus (AT) 11-10 250/1
1995 Master Oats 11-10 5/1
1996 Young Hustler 11-7 8/1
1997 Master Oats 11-10 25/1
1998 Suny Bay 12-0 11/1 2nd
1999 Suny Bay 11-13 12/1
2000 Young Kenny 12-0 14/1
2001 Beau 11-10 12/1
2002 Marlborough 11-12 20/1
2003 Behrajan 11-12 22/1
2004 Monty’s Pass 11-12 20/1 4th Le Coudray 11-12 28/1
2005 Le Coudray 11-12 33/1
2006 Hedgehunter 11-12 5/1 2nd Royal Auclair 11-12 33/1
2007 Hedgehunter 11-12 9/1
2008 Hedgehunter 11-12 10/1 Hi Cloy 11-12 100/1
2009 Cloudy Lane 11-10 50/1
2010 Madison Du Berlais 11-10 50/1(AT) = Automatic Top Weight
Of the 10 top weights to start 11/1 or shorter, half (5) were placed.
Value Is EverythingFantastic work Gingertipster.
My earlier post was probably not articulated very well, but what I am trying to find out is how are the percentages of wins/places of horses below the 11stone threshold altered if those horses running from out of the handicap are taken out of the statistics?
If a horse is handicapped to carry 8st 12 but has to run off the minimum of 10stone then surely that horse has little or no chance of winning the race. (Bobbyjo excluded).
Those horses have a clear weight disadvantage, much more so than classier horses having to lump 11stone around Aintree.
Pre the Phil Smith era, very many horses were running from out of the handicap and they would be the first off my list of potential winners.
Your analysis is excellent, but would be even better if it were divided thus: those horses carrying 11stone and above; horses weighted from 10stone 13lbs to 10 stone 0 lbs but in the handicap proper; and those horses from out of the handicap.
As an aside, how the hell did Hi Cloy get allotted top weight?
Again, thanks for the excellent post.
P.S. Who was it a few years ago that posted the analysis of the negative influence of Strong Gale in the National? I found that fascinating and would like to revisit those stats.RP reports that JP McManus has bought Bluesea Cracker.
Just the six possible runners this year then.
Kendal cavalier pointed out the negative influence of Strong Gale; I hope he’s correct, having missed the opportunity to back Silver by Nature at a decent price [mainly because I was convinced he was being aimed at the Scottish National].
Ballytrim out, so One Cool Cookie is one slot closer
Bloody hell. Of my criteria shortlist; everyone has either been withdrawn or won’t make the cut. The only ones left are Notre Pere and One Cool Cookie and they might not even make it depending on the ground and last minute withdrawals!
I feel your pain! I was hopeful of a big run from Ballytrim. My aim this year [assuming there’s little hope of sorting out the winner] was to back horses ante post that were definate runners, having backed horses in the past that were never intended to run anyway. I now seem to be left with a group of horses just below the cut off point and, blow me, one horse comes out to give one of them a better chance of running and it’s one of my main bets! Given that I didn’t back Siver by Nature or Bluesea Cracker because I was convinced connections were not going to let them run, things are going from bad to worse. I can only hope that Chief Dan George wins even though I don’t expect him to, as this is a bet that’s straight from the heart. I even had a bet at 33/1 even though he was 40’s at another bookies, because he’d won at 33/1 before and I’d missed the bet.
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