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<br>Big prize money on offer tomorrow and I’d like to wish TRF member ‘Alan1’ the best of luck with his runner Bookiesindex Boy. Having seen him go sharply left in the past, his draw close to the far rail in stall 3 looks a bonus and he’s certainly shown speed.
A longshot, but there was a 100-1 winner down the far rail last year and I know that as an owner it’s great just to have a shot at such a big prize.
A potentially good draw also for Cav Okay in the race he should have been concentrating on ever since his debut. He’ll have his ground tomorrow, so he’ll run out of excuses if he can’t at least make the frame.
AP
Was watching some recent replys of this on RUK (i tend to get out of touch with sprints) and didnt strike me that draw was all that crucial.
I cant see past Gilded. but shes short and is a slight worry that shes been a bit too busy….
I’ve been trying to work out what will beat Gilded and I’ve come to the conclusion nothing will. Satulagi may be outpaced over 5f, while I would have backed Elhamri at level weights but its asking a lot to ask him to concede 8lb to Gilded (and to concede weight to ever other horse).
I rated Gilded 5lb better than Nina Blini in The Queen Mary and Nina Blini now gets 5lb so in theory it should be a dead heat. However Gilded is a lot more consistent and is a hard horse to pass so I would back her to uphold that form.
The other two I liked were Everymanforhimself and Cav Okay nut they are both risky propositions. EveryMFH seems to have won a substandard Brian Yeardley at Beverley and he will come home with a rattling late run but he may be too far behind to get to the leaders. Cav Okay has run 3 times in its ideal conditions and came 1st and 3rd and 8th. However it was reportedly lame last time so I will excuse it that failure which makes it a possible today at inflated odds. i don’t think Ice Mountain achieved much last time. My prediction is:
1st Gilded 5/2f<br>2nd Cav Okay 14/1<br>3rd Everymanforhimself 20/1
You heard it here first.;)
With showers predicted IMO forget the draw, I’m going for ‘Ice Moutain’…Smart won the race in 1999, and the sire Kyllachy? say no more! ;)
Thanks Alan, I think we,ll need all the luck going to win although I don’t think he’ll be disgraced.
We really could have done with a drop of rain though.
<br>EC,
Presumably the best remaining filter is the strike rate of fillies, who seem to benefit from being cheaper at the sales than the colts and they get a weight allowance as well.
That would reduce your list to just Nina Blini.
Easy isn’t it ……?
AP
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<br> I agree with AP on this, Cav Okay looks to have been trained with this in mind for some time.<br> Still no guarantee that he will last home, but worth a small bet, at the price, that he does.
I was very taken with the performance of Ice Mountain at Beverley last time. He showed plenty of speed that day, but doesn’t have to lead and if able to get a toe off Cav Okay should go very well.
I’m on Cav Okay at 14 – I reckon that’s a great price. All conditions should suit and he’s drawn well.
<br>Good luck to the backers of Cav Okay – my view is that he should have been trained with this race as his priority ever since his debut win, but that hasn’t been the case.
Neither the pointless run on very soft ground at Sandown, nor the previous attempt at the Chester merry go round would have been on the agenda if I’d been doing the placing.
AP
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Quote: from EC on 11:49 am on July 22, 2006[br]<br>Changed your mind pretty extremely Reet on that one? That was a thread about speed figures though ..which we all know aren’t up to much.
Any reason why the horse has improved from his handicapper level?
Not at all, EC.<br> The horse is a short runner – which the form book clearly shows. <br>His trainer has given him 3 runs over stiff tracks to try and instil the stamina for this flat 5 on fast ground. If he fails this test, he is unlikely to make even a decent handicapper.<br>There’s more to this game than speed figures, you know.:biggrin:
Why do you say that EC? The only race the horse has won was at Newbury on good ground. Same as today.
Quote: from stav on 8:40 am on July 22, 2006[br]I’m on ELHAMRI (14.0) and WE’LL CONFER (44.0) although their draws don’t look too helpful.<br>
Nice. Well done
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