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I’m sure all of us are familiar with the ‘New Manager Phenomena’ whereby it appears there is an upturn (sometimes short) in the fortunes of a football club that have replaced their manager. I thought it might be an idea to track this for the rest of the season to see if a) there’s any actual truth in it and b) if any favourable punting opportunities arise from it.
I’d like to put a few ground rules down to ensure a fair study and I’m tending to lean towards the following:
# Original Manager has to have been sacked rather than have resigned or walked out.
# New Manager has to be a permanent replacement
# First game in charge only (for punting purposes).But, I’m open to suggestions, should I be more flexible, any thoughts?
I’ll try and list the manager’s merry-go-round on here and their performance for the first three games along with match odds and LSP etc but feel free to join-in as I shall probably miss some.
Good luck Pompete; hope you manage to see your family sometime!
I’m dubious about the punting value of this aspect, even though it is (rightly or wrongly) often quoted as a real factor. I doubt it myself. Although you could quote the case at Wrexham in the Conference this season. Sacked Little and installed Dean Saunders and since then haven’t lost a League game, (Although did get stuffed by a lower league team in FA cup qualifiers.)I’ve decided to keep this as simple as possible so I will record the LSP for a Win/Draw punt on the first match when a new manager is appointed on either a permanent or caretaker basis (but not both).
This week has seen two new managers appointed:
Billy Davies at Nottingham Forest, however he will not take us his position until Monday so his first match in charge will be next Saturday’s away game at Charlton.
At Bournemouth Eddie Howe has been appointed caretaker manager for this weekends match away at Darlington. This week’s bets:
1pt Bournemouth to Win @ 4.50 – Ladbrokes Oddschecker 02/01/09
1pt Bournemouth to Draw @ 3.50 – Ladbrokes Oddschecker 02/01/09I’ve noticed over the past few years that clubs seem to do really well when the manager has been sacked and no one has, as yet taken over; haven’t kept any records, though [can’t wait to see Nigel take over at Pride Park..we were at the Burton Albion ground when they were doing well in the Cup a few years ago]….
Moe…I would be good to see Nigel doing well at Derby also you’ve made have another little think about this. As I’m in danger of putting the cart before the horse here so from now on I’m just going to note when a manager has been sacked and a new one appointed. I shall kept a note of how each team performs immediately after each sacking and appointment and put it all together at the end of the season with a view to testing it properly next season should the results seem favourable.
Notes To Date:
Nottingham Forest – In their first game after the announcement of Billy Davis as their new permanent manager Forest beat Manchester City 3-0 in the FA Cup (8/1 available)
Bournemouth – In their first game with Eddie Howe in charge as caretaker manager Bournemouth lost 2-1 away to Darlington. Having led early they were undone by an 83rd min equaliser and a 90 min pen.
Derby County – In their first game after the announcement of Nigel Clough as their new permanent manager Derby beat Manchester Utd 1-0 in the first leg of their League Cup semi-final (13/1 available)
Interesting thread this – good theory why the first result under a new manager should be improved so I think could be a winner.
Also – guaranteed a few bets every season as there are bound to be a good few sackings every winter.
Are you including Scottish clubs Pompete?
My old man has been operating a similar theory for as long as I can remember. He will almost without fail back a team the first game after they sack a manager, regardless of whether a replacement is there or not. It’s probably not quite as successful as he makes out, but from what I’ve observed you’d almost certainly get a LSP out of it.
Are you including Scottish clubs Pompete?
Why on earth would he do that ?
He might as well include women’s football Corm
Lee
fascinating stuff this..will get my partner to keep tabs on things as well; I never have bets on football matches [although he did; had a double on Montys Pass for the National and Newcastle to beat Leeds…they lost]……
This is a topic that intrigues me. I seem to remember some years ago, the bod in the Racing Post who analyses everything to the nth degree (was it Kevin Pullein?) stating that there was no mileage (profit) in backing teams under new managers. Logic would also dictate that, if a team has got rid of a manager it’s probably because the team is poor. But, in spite of this, I can’t help feeling in my water that there may be something in this and that now that the punter can LAY teams, there is more of an opportunity for profit. Good luck Pompete.
fascinating stuff this..will get my partner to keep tabs on things as well; I never have bets on football matches [although he did; had a double on Montys Pass for the National and Newcastle to beat Leeds…they lost]……
That is harsh – you have a double; one of them in a 40 runner lottery (okay I know it’s a bit more predictable than that) and the other in a 3 runner race and the first leg comes in but the foooty lets you down.
Strange double if you don’t mind me saying though Mo.
Lee
it wasn’t me..I just backed Montys Pass the week before the race because Eddie the Shoe said to….it was only after the race that my partner told me what he’d done…I guess it was in the days when Newcastle used to win sometimes..very silly thing to do in my estimation!
Notes Update:
Nottingham Forest – In their first game after the announcement of Billy Davis as their new permanent manager Forest beat Manchester City 3-0 in the FA Cup (8/1 available) In his first offical game in charge Billy Davis led Forest to beat Charlton 2-0 away from home (9/4 available) This ends our interest in Forest.[/color:btz1dacw]
Bournemouth – In their first game with Eddie Howe in charge as caretaker manager Bournemouth lost 2-1 away to Darlington. Having led early they were undone by an 83rd min equaliser and a 90 min pen.
Derby County – In their first game after the announcement of Nigel Clough as their new permanent manager Derby beat Manchester Utd 1-0 in the first leg of their League Cup semi-final (13/1 available)
Yes Corm, the plan is to include Scottish clubs.
However, strangely over Christmas I was talking to my mate about Scottish football and we both concluded that from when we were kids up to about ten years or so ago we knew as much about Scottish football as we did English. In fact, in our Subbuteo League I was always Dumbarton (it was Wolves really Gold shirts, Black shorts, I don’t think Subbuteo actually did Dumbarton). Anyhow, this may just be my observation ( I haven’t got Sky) but the coverage of Scottish football down here is almost non-existence now days and as I sit here now I couldn’t even name all of the teams in the SPL and I’d struggle to name a dozen Scottish players. I don’t want to be dramatic about it but both of us were quite taken aback by it all. I’d be interested to know if others here in England share this experience.
So, I’ll try and keep on top of it but if miss any please let me know.
I did notice it was a good day for the Jambos yesterday. Did you go?
I think cormack is a Hibbie so might be best to say nothing about the weeknd’s results!
I think Subbutteo almost certainly DID do a Dumbarton – I’ll do some research and get back to you.
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