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No clue I’m afraid. This time last year Beneficial was 4/67 at Cheltenham and 1/28 at the Festival. His possible runners last year were Realt Dubh, Fiendish Glame, Thegreatjohnbrowne, Becauseicouldntsee, Adams Island & Kid Cassidy. I don’t know which of those horses actually ran though.
God knows why I’m doing this because the race looks like being a nightmare. Probably that’s why I’m so determined to find the winner.
There are some very strong trends in the Neptune, one of the best races for trends of the entire year. You occasionally get the weird freak winner that doesn’t meet any of the trends and last year we had that weird freak winner in First Lieutenant, winning by a short head from Rock on Ruby, a perfect trends horse & because Oscars Well, another perfect trends horse, slipped after jumping the last. The one before him was Massini’s Maguire, winning by a bloody neck from Tidal Bay who meets every trend perfectly.
Between 1 and 5 runs over hurdles that season.
5 or 6 years old.
Finished in the top 2 LTO.
Won at least 50% of their starts over hurdles that season.
Had a start on or after January 15th.
Won on seasonal hurdling debut.
Didn’t run within 2 weeks of the Festival.
Finished 1st or 2nd on all starts over hurdles that season.
Had run in a pattern race or once-raced.
Posted a RPR of 145+ (excluding once-raced horses).
Must have posted a personal best RPR last time out.
Did not win the Challow Hurdle (The race often run on soft/heavy ground with a long straight places emphasis on stamina, not speed. The last 13 Challow Hurdle winners all failed in the Neptune, Denman included. Challow Hurdle winners go chasing – Neptune winners very rarely do)Of the last 13 winners, excluding the aforementioned couple of gits, the only winner that broke any of these trends was French Holly, a 7 year old and also ran 1lb below his personal best LTO.
Nicky Henderson was an unbelievably bad record in the race with something like 0-21 and only 3 in the top 10. Duc de Regniere, Aigle D’or, Mad Max, Minella Class, Finian’s Rainbow in the past 5 odd runnings. Not one in the top 4.
There are also a few sires to avoid when it comes to Cheltenham and by chance, 5 of the contenders are by this sire – Beneficial. Yes, he is the sire of Cooldine, but that’s the only win for him at the Cheltenham Festival from 35 odd attempts. He has about 4 wins at Cheltenham from roughly 75 runners. Not good.
The contenders;
Fingal Bay – Challow Hurdle winner, going straight to the Festival without a run since December 31st.
Simonsig – Henderson, looks like running in the Supreme anyway.
Make Your Mark – sired by Beneficial.
Boston Bob – 7 years old.
Monksland – sired by Beneficial and trained by Meade. Urgh.
Sous Le Cieux – finished 3rd in the Royal Bond, but he also has an awful lot of positives that I’ll come to later on.
Ballyrock – no negatives
Cotton Mill – no negatives
Terminal – no negatives
It’s A Gimme – beaten on hurdling debut, sired by Beneficial
Captain Conan – Henderson
Broadback Bob – 7 years old, trained by Henderson
Galileo’s Choice – beaten on hurdling debut, trained by Weld
Molotof – Henderson
Vesper Bell – beaten on hurdling debut, sired by Beneficial
Mono Man – beaten on hurdling debut, trained by Henderson
Knight Pass – I just don’t think he’s good enough
Which makes my list considerably shorter;
Sous Le Cieux – sired by Robin Des Champs, sire of Sir Des Champs & Quevega. Also won the Royal Bond, a fantastic trial for the Neptune that Istabraq & Hardy Eustace both won en route too. Has already posted a RPR of 151, a rating better than any winner since 2000 had posted prior to the Festival, Mikael d’Haguenet excepted. He’s also French-bred and trained by Willie Mullins. An awful lot to like, but will he run in this or the Supreme? Hope to see him line up in the Deloitte next. Posting a personal best rating there would surely give him the victory.
Ballyrock – flattered to get as close to Fingal Bay as he did & the reality is that he’s not good enough. He’s posted a RPR of 144 because of his proximity to Fingal Bay in the Challow. A false rating.
Cotton Mill – Despite winning a Grade 2 novice hurdle hasn’t posted a rating higher than 137 and he won’t be good enough.
Terminal – An interesting debut the other week, if not spectacular and will hopefully line up in the Deloitte next. Also French-bred. Will be entered for all 3 novice hurdles apparently.
I do like French bred horses in this race. Single-figure priced French-bred runners have a 0710122F3 record since 1998. One of the 2s belongs to Karabak who finished behind another FR-bred horse in Mikael d’Haguenet.
FR-bred single-figured priced runners since 1998 who posted a RPR of 145+ prior to the Festival (once-raced horses excluded, of which there are none) finished 01122; Oa Baldixe (148), Nicanor (146), Mikael d’Haguenet (159), Karabak (156) & Reve De Sivola (150).
With Mullins having Midnight Game for the Supreme, I’m hoping he doesn’t feel the need to run another as I’d love to see Sous le Cieux go for this. He has a near perfect profile. Entries will be published on February 2nd which might be able to make things a little easier for me, but I very much doubt it.
I should also note that there are several horses without quotes for the Neptune despite them being shortish prices on Betfair. The entries should at least help me with those.
Your some man to study the form if you think Galileos Choice was bet fto over hurdles.Dont do a big write up and claim you have all the facts when you clearly dont.
Tell me who his trainer is and how many winners and runners that trainer has had at the Cheltenham Festival.
Almost certain he’ll run in the Supreme anyway.
Im just saying you got your’facts’ wrong.Did I mention the trainer and his amount of winners??
My facts aren’t wrong. He was beaten on his debut and he’s trained by Dermot Weld.
GC was not beaten first time out over hurdles. His December run wasn’t his first run. That was at Galway and he won.
You said SLC came 3rd in and won the Royal Bond
Ah true, bloody Galway. Why do they do that, just to confuse people like me?
Yes I realised the mistake I made with the Royal Bond while I was writing the other bit about Sous le Cieux. I thought the Royal Bond was the one at Christmas. Anyway you understand what I mean.Ok fair enough Galileo’s Choice isn’t eliminated but he’s still trained by Dermot Weld and still most likely be running based on his Supreme price.
Ah true, bloody Galway. Why do they do that, just to confuse people like me?
Yes I realised the mistake I made with the Royal Bond while I was writing the other bit about Sous le Cieux. I thought the Royal Bond was the one at Christmas. Anyway you understand what I mean.Ok fair enough Galileo’s Choice isn’t eliminated but he’s still trained by Dermot Weld and still most likely be running based on his Supreme price.
16-1 is big for SLC, isn’t it ?
And if it were mine, Make Your Mark would be lining up in the Albert Batlett
Your some man to study the form if you think Galileos Choice was bet fto over hurdles.Dont do a big write up and claim you have all the facts when you clearly dont.
I now understand what you mean. I thought you meant that they didn’t back him in the Royal Bond and wasn’t expected to win but still ran well. Yes, I made a tiny mistake because he made his hurdling debut inbetween running on the flat. There’s no need to react like that. Just point out my mistake as MarkTT did with Sous le Cieux.
16-1 is big for SLC, isn’t it ?
22 on Betfair for £18 but don’t think it’s worth the bother. I’ll back him for the Deloitte & hopefully be quick enough, should he win, to get on him before they cut his price.
BBbob’s odds half halved overnight in participation of a big run tomorrow……..seems like Barry has opted to go to Donnie though and Andrew Tinkle will ride.
Nicky ‘Criminal IMHO’ Henderson had an open day a couple of days ago at Seven Barrows & absolutely adores Simonsig who apparently runs in the Neptune. Reported to have said ‘he’ll definitely reverse form with Hobbs’ horse who beat him’.
So I’d say Simonsig will be running in the Supreme.
I would be cautious backing him in the neptune. Henderson remarked that he wouldn’t be scared to go back in distance because he has so much speed.
I would still be concerned about how he travelled to challenge and then fingal repelled him. He won’t reverse that form.
Sketti/Zarks: Pre-empting Mr Henderson’s entries is a nightmare as well as Mr Mullins
For me Simonsig has every right to reverse the form with Fingals Bay who without doubt is better the softer it is! Fingals Bay had 2 runs prior and Simonsig was cantering approaching the 2nd last and pulling double at the last, Sandowns long run in was all that beat him along with a fitter horse, BJG was not at all hard on Simonsog once he realised he had lost and the horse did not lose any more ground in the last 50 yards
I have backed Simonsig for the Neptune and will go in for the Supreme (as a saver) once the NRNB option arrives
Well like I said Sketti, ‘The Criminal’ said he’d be running in the Neptune, but I fully expect to now see him run in the Supreme.
Zarks: Tut tut ‘criminal’ when referring to the Royal trainer
You’ll end up in the tower mate
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