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INVITATION ONLY 14/1
This one of my fave races of Festival and this time last year i felt YORKHILL was horse to beat and proved right.And i think this horse can win neptune he won 2bumpers in fine style.Was talked about being a stayer but i feel he got speed as well i go as far to say he become best novice hurdle horse that Mullins got this season.
As mentioned on the AB thread Darren, I liked Battleford for this, but possible talk of him going the staying division in that stable tour, so I’ll leave alone for the timebeing.
Good luck with Invitation Only
must admit im with darren i do like INVITATION ONLY. MR MULLINS has said going for staying hurdles this season. i had backed him ante post for last seasons bumper when mullins said he was one of his better bumpers last season, so must carry on following him.
i think 1 horse that has been forgotten is MOON RACER. cant see him as a supreme horse. but deffinatly neptune. and at 20/1 with hills is i think over priced
BLOW BY BLOW 25/1ew NAP. Massive potential. This horse is going to be the next super star. A mixture of class, speed and stamina he is born for this race.
Pile in now before he runs. I’m gutted he left Mullins yard hope Elliot gets the best out of him.
The other one I like is Castello SFORA but I’m hoping he runs in the supreme.
Taking a bit of a risk on Battleford to win at 20’s + on the exchanges for this.
Looks like he will be making his debut over hurdles this weekend and wanted to get in before his run. Seems to have quite a bit of speed and think this race could be perfect for him.
MUST ADMIT IME IN THE ROBIN ROE CAMP. SO HAD A FEW QUID ON AT 20/1 AND NOW AGAIN TODAY AT 16/1
What we make of the fav winning on hurdles debut rather was at 2m5 but show all his class in 2m maiden hurdle was decent race to and hope he step up in trip next time.
I WENT BACK AND BACKED ROBIN ROE AGAIN TODAY AT 14/1 I REALLY DO FANCY THIS HORSE. THE FORM OF HIS WINS IS GETTING BETTER AND BETTER
Not too put off by Battlefords run LTO. Hoping for a better performance over the 2 Mile 2 F if he takes up his engagement in the next week.
Added some 55’s + on BF
Righteo, let’s have a look at the trends for this.
The list of runners I’m using is from Oddschecker. I’m not looking at any runner that doesn’t have a price on Betfair, because otherwise I’ll be doing this for years.
Only 5 and 6yos win this. 1985-2016, won by a 5/6yo in every race bar two.
Bye bye, Fulham Road, Give Me A Copper, First Figaro, Peregrine Run, Very Much So, Pylonthepressure, Winter Soldier, Rathnure Rebel and Meri Devie.
British-bred horses also have a very bad record. This trend even defeated Yanworth. 10 of the last 11 winners were FR/IRE-bred.
Bye bye, No Comment, Battleford, Melon, Augusta Kate and Thomas Campbell.
So the 2 strongest trends have been applied, but no real market principles eliminated.
The other trends aren’t strong enough to apply to the others yet. 10 of the last 11 winners won a bumper, but I don’t see the theory behind that trend.
Word of caution for Messire Des Obeaux – Challow Hurdle winners have a dire record in the Neptune. Not even Denman could break that trend. IMO it’s purely down to the tracks – Newbury has a 4 1/2f straight and suits horses with stamina. The Neptune is run on the Old Course, which has a 2f straight, and suits those with a turn of foot.
Personally I couldn’t back Death Duty with stolen money. He’s a false price as Invitation Only ran well below form. If Invitation Only had run to form and Death Duty had beaten him, he’d be 9/1. So 9/1 with IO running below form makes zero appeal.
Also couldn’t have Ballyandy. Don’t know much about the others in the betting.
Invitation only would be my biggest winner in this but I do believe he did run to form last time out.
Monalee,s form is rock solid. With the story teller, turcagua etc.. behind him he’s a quality animal.
The 4th moulin au vent is pretty good too.
I just think over that trip on that ground death duty is a superior horse,, and if he goes to the bartlett with IO and monalee going neptune, they are both still in with a great shout.Assuming blow by blow isn’t coming out, I’d have the neptune narrowed down to.
Bacardys
Saturnas
Invitation only
Monalee
Death duty
Cilaos emery (likely supreme)
The story teller (likely albert bartlett)I’d still give No comment a minor chance of progressing into a contender
Sorry Rocky but literally no chance he ran to form. I said as much immediately after the race and Ruby said he felt flat. On simple form lines through Turcagua and The Storyteller, you can see that Invitation Only is a far better horse than Monalee.
The difference is your interpreting bumper form for hurdles. Horses like joey sasa and turcagua have improved over obsticles Imo.
Joey sasa has clearly improved dramatically since finishing behind thirsty work in bumpers.
Punchestown (IRE) Result
20 Nov 2016
« 2:50 » I.N.H. STALLION OWNERS EUROPEAN BREEDERS FUND MAIDEN HURDLE
(5yo+) 2m6f Inner Soft
£6,330.88, £1,955.88, £926.47, £411.76, £154.41
RESULTRATE RACE
Hide all comments in runningShow all pedigrees
HORSE/SP AGE WGT TRAINER/JOCKEY OR TS RPR« 1 Monalee (IRE) 3/1 5 11-12 Henry De Bromhead — * * »
David MullinsPoor visibility, always prominent, led after 5th, going best before last and kept on well under hands and heels run-in, eased close home, comfortably (op 3/1 tchd 7/2)
« 2 1¾ The Storyteller (IRE) 3/1 5 11-12 Gordon Elliott — * * »
Jack KennedyPoor visibility, chased leaders, 5th after 5th, took closer order behind leaders before 3 out, ridden into 2nd and no impression on easy winner from last, kept on same pace run-in (op 2/1 tchd 7/2)
« 3 2 Turcagua (FR) 6/4F 6 11-12 W P Mullins — * * »
R WalshPoor visibility, waited with towards rear, progress to chase leaders 4 out, ridden in 3rd before last and no impression on easy winner run-in, kept on same pace (op 9/4)
« 4 7 Call The Taxie (IRE) 25/1 5 11-12 Miss Ellmarie Holden — * * »
Danny MullinsPoor visibility, held up in touch, 8th after 5th, took closer order behind leaders before 3 out, ridden and no impression on leaders after next, kept on one pace (op 20/1)
« 5 2¼ Coeur Joyeux (IRE) 7/1 5 11-12 t Ms Sandra Hughes — * * »
Barry GeraghtyPoor visibility, chased leaders, slight mistake 1st, 4th after 5th, ridden and no impression on easy winner after 2 out, one pace after (op 9/1)
« 6 hd Glenloe (IRE) 25/1 5 11-12 Gordon Elliott — * * »
Mark EnrightPoor visibility, held up in rear of mid-division, 9th after 5th, some late headway.
T the strongest maiden hurdle of the season for me.
The difference is your interpreting bumper form for hurdles. Horses like joey sasa and turcagua have improved over obsticles Imo.
Joey sasa has clearly improved dramatically since finishing behind thirsty work in bumpers.
Fair enough. Still think IO ran below form.
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