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Neptune Novice Hurdle

Home Forums Archive Topics Cheltenham Archive Cheltenham 2015 Neptune Novice Hurdle

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  • #500331
    Avatar photostevecaution
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    Tell Us More is an exciting looking horse and anyone on at big odds for Cheltenham should be feeling on good terms with themselves.

    He is generally 4/6 for tomorrow at Naas but I don’t think there’s any value in that price.

    Tell Us More is stepping up another half mile tomorrow and faces a fellow unbeaten horse in Free Expression, who has won at the track and at the distance. It will be a fair old slog tomorrow, with ground currently soft-soft/heavy in places.

    The Mullins trained horse has won over 3 miles but that was a god awful maiden point to point at Tattersalls Farm.

    Free Expression has done nothing wrong and his form looks far more solid. He may well be dismissed by Tell Us More tomorrow but at the respective odds, and with no real questions other than the Mullins horse potentially being better, I would have to back AP’s mount at 9/4, as the better value of the two tomorrow. The biggest question for me regarding Tell Us More is the form of his maiden hurdle win, which has seen 17 subsequent runners, all of whom were unplaced.

    Tell Us More will be as short as a carrot for The Neptune if he wins tomorrow and will take the beating at Cheltenham. I would probably take Free Expression for that race at 16/1 each-way, because he could lose tomorrow and still have place claims at a decent price for Festival race. The slightly off putting factor for me regarding that potential bet is that No More Heroes is a similar candidate, at a similar looking level, for the same stable.

    It will be interesting to see how things pan out tomorrow and good luck to all holding tasty vouchers on Tell Us More.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #500332
    Avatar photothehorsesmouth
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    I’d be guessing, and hoping, that No More Heroes will be aimed at the Bartlett. He looks a really strong stayer and would suit Gigginstown (and me), with Tell Us More hopefully their Neptune horse.

    You’re spot on about Tell Us More’s maiden hurdle to be fair David, you’d do well to find a worse field in behind. He wasn’t out of second gear to win, but realistically there are a number of horses who would have won in the same fashion. I just think he looks a potential star. The way he won his bumper, quickening in effortless fashion, a stayer with speed as Dermot Weld is always preaching.

    I see William Hill now going 9/2 for the Neptune, shortest across Oddschecker. They must have a pretty one sided book, having gone 20/1 for a long time when 16/1 was all that was available elsewhere.

    #500378
    Avatar photothehorsesmouth
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    Disappointing finishing effort from Tell Us More who jumped as well as any novice hurdler I’ve seen and travelled well into the straight. It just looked like he ran out of puff after the last. The positive, if you could call it a positive, is that McKinley beat him, a stablemate who was allowed to go off at 33/1. That should tell us everything about how they rate the two horses at the stable. Hopefully we’ll get some comments from Mullins on ATR soon.

    #500379
    stilvi
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    Leaving aside the guessing games of where a horse will end up it seems a Mullins runner hasn’t got to do much more than win to get shortened.

    That was one of the poorest Saturday novice hurdles you will ever see. The horse had a very easy lead and not surprisingly won as he liked.

    He might be very good but he has a long way to go before confirming that impression.

    It appears much of this forum is taken up with celebrating ante-post vouchers. Unfortunately, for the most part it is little more than bravado because so few actually win. Perhaps Tell Us More can recover his reputation but I would have thought it is highly unlikely that will include coming close to winning a Neptune. Today he had the run of the race and should really have won but in reality he folded very tamely under pressure leaving the bookmakers in seventh heaven on two counts.

    #500381
    Avatar photothehorsesmouth
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    Leaving aside the guessing games of where a horse will end up it seems a Mullins runner hasn’t got to do much more than win to get shortened.

    That was one of the poorest Saturday novice hurdles you will ever see. The horse had a very easy lead and not surprisingly won as he liked.

    He might be very good but he has a long way to go before confirming that impression.

    It appears much of this forum is taken up with celebrating ante-post vouchers. Unfortunately, for the most part it is little more than bravado because so few actually win.

    I thought Tell Us More was a big price at 20/1 for the Neptune and backed accordingly. I haven’t been celebrating that his price was 6/1 this morning, rather hoping that he would justify that sort of price. Thankfully, I don’t need many 20/1 shots to win :)

    I wouldn’t back him now at 12/1, but I haven’t given up hope either. It wouldn’t surprise me if something comes to light after today’s run. I find it hard to believe that McKinley is a better horse but maybe I’m wrong.

    #500388
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    I don’t think there is anything wrong with being happy about getting a big price ante-post and then seeing the horse shorten. As long as the horse gets to the race and lines up a shorter price than you initially took, it is mission accomplished, win or lose.

    I have a lot more admiration for guys who will have a go early at 20/1, than for the likes of the Channel 4 team who very recently put up Peace and Co (Mick Fitzgerald) and Vautour (Jim McGrath) as good long term shouts for Cheltenham :roll:

    Anyway, back to Tell Us More and his defeat. I did say I had a bit of a concern about him at the trip today. He had won at 3 miles but that was in a maiden Point-To-Point race. My belief is that a horse only truly proves his stamina for a given distance when it meets top class horses at the trip in question. Class horses can get away with meeting less than ideal conditions when they are facing lesser opponents but as they move up to their own level factors such as trip and going become much more important.

    Looking at today’s race it is hard to get enthused about any of the 1-2-3 regarding The Neptune. I felt that either Tell Us More or Free Expression had to go out there and win in good style to maintain or enhance their position in the market.

    As I said earlier, I had a worry that No More Heroes might be "the one" from the Elliot stable for this race, having floored hotpot Shaneshill last time. Shaneshill is just about favourite for the Neptune now and I would say No More Heroes would be the value if he was sure to line up. Perhaps the latter horse would need it soft to bring stamina to the fore but if I had to pick one at current odds it would be him at 16/1.

    If he doesn’t go on to put a "Stranglerhold" on the race, we can always ask:-

    "Whatever happened to all the heroes?, No More Heroes anymore"

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #500436
    Blunkett
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    I agree about NMH now Steve. Think you might find the Giggi horses split between the three races, with TUM going for the Supreme and Milsean for the 3 miler. Whether they all win is another matter. I’ve laid off my 20s TUM for theNeptune at 12s for a free bet at 8s.

    #500453
    Avatar photothehorsesmouth
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    I think No More Heroes boasts the strongest novice hurdle form on offer across any of the distances at this stage, but my pocket hopes they go for the Bartlett with him. You have to love the way he dug it out against Shaneshill last time, something Tell Us More was unable to do yesterday.

    #500460
    Avatar photoShack1
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    He’s far better than this run surely.

    Mullins has several flat runners at this time of year – think of hotpots beat over Christmas this and previous years. Vautour also won last year around this time but still ran flat.

    I think the fact that O’Leary was in deep discussion with the rider of the second and not the winner on dismount was telling as to how he is rated by connections.

    #500771
    Avatar photosketti
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    Just been watching through some of the contenders for this. The more I look at the race the more I think it will be Tell us more in top 3 for sure. 12-1 now looks a solid ew bet.

    Reason for this is, so far I haven’t been taken by the Brits at all. Previous winners in the last decade have had a similar pointing background to Tell us More showing stamina. Also the race seems is won regularly by horses with firsts and Seconds in the form, the fact he didn’t win latest means nothing.

    I can’t seem him being an AB horse and Mullins has a few in the Supreme so I don’t think the target will change.

    I am getting on.

    Also topspeed 129 is a solid score in the latest race. Better than most.

    #500803
    Avatar photoMarkTT
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    Just been watching through some of the contenders for this. The more I look at the race the more I think it will be Tell us more in top 3 for sure. 12-1 now looks a solid ew bet.

    Reason for this is, so far I haven’t been taken by the Brits at all. Previous winners in the last decade have had a similar pointing background to Tell us More showing stamina. Also the race seems is won regularly by horses with firsts and Seconds in the form, the fact he didn’t win latest means nothing.

    I can’t seem him being an AB horse and Mullins has a few in the Supreme so I don’t think the target will change.

    I am getting on.

    Also topspeed 129 is a solid score in the latest race. Better than most.

    If there’s a British based horse who might shake the market up, i think it’s Out Sam. His last win is being franked all the time and he still looked green at times during that race.

    However, recent winners have all been in the first few in the betting by now.

    #500812
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    Out Sam has crossed my mind. It’s always hard taking three horse races seriously.

    It has been franked but not graded races. Tea for two is an improving handicapper. He won a class four last time.

    He has the point profile although only two seconds. I’ll be watching him closely in the warwick race if he goes.

    Vyta appeals a bit too. I am on Shantou Bob for half a point at 120-1. I don’t think he’ll win this nd tried to find ab odds but can’t. He looks a stayer but probably not the classiest. Be a good handicapper.

    #503152
    Avatar photoThe Young Fella
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    Really disappointed with Windsor Park’s effort in the same race as No More Heroes at the weekend. His form tallied well with the top novices and he was regarded better than Silver Concorde.

    I wonder if an excuse will emerge.

    #503379
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    There is a Henderson horse I have been chipping a little away at recently and am delighted to see he is only entered in the Neptune. I hope he wins his next appointment and makes the march appointment.

    Anyone else got a view on Kilcrea Vale. Very under raced for a Neptune but could be smart.

    #751171
    Avatar photoMarkTT
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    Anyone know why or have an opinion on the comparative prices of Vyta Du Roc for this and the Albert Bartlett ?

    He looks more of a Neptune type to me

    #751894
    Avatar photoThe Young Fella
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    Tycoon Prince gave a distant nod to Windsor Park by flooring Champion Bumper prospect Up For Review in the match race at Naas. Dead pleased with any extra positivity I can find! 8)

    #782052
    TheRowebot
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    What’s everyone’s thoughts on Tell us More?

    Not working well after defeat to McKinley (remember faugheen didn’t work well until he had his feed changed). Mullins seemed very coy on the reasoning behind this defeat, like he knew what was up at a time when others also under performed.

    Now shortening on betfair for first time in a while for this race despite cooper originally saying he rides outlander. Also, Ricci says he thinks he goes neptune and says he is one he would like to own out of willies crop!

    Still think he’s a big player in a weak looking race.

Viewing 17 posts - 18 through 34 (of 34 total)
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