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Neptune Collonges is fully entitled to win easily tomorrow and this has been his long term target but cant help but think the gold cup form is over rated (firmly believe kauto Star hasnt been the same horse since that injury scare affter his GC prep, and exotic dancer has been regressing with every run) and think I’ll have a wee bet on New Alco e/w.
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Neptune Collonges is entitled to win this comfortably, even on his form previous to the Gold Cup. He would need to be ridden quite aggressively though, as he ideally needs a stiffer test.
Thing is when he does, he will once again be compared to Kauto Star, a horse he wouldn’t get near in the normal course of events.Some funny comments on this race today
Collier makes the point that Kicking King’s G1 record is "2F1222111131" while Neptune Collonge’s is "236813".
Yes – thanks for that stat – but what is Kicking King’s record since he suffered a serious injury?!
And Segal "The problem (with Neptune) is his price. He is 5-4 to win a good race"…
No – he is 13-8 (Paddy Power) and 6-4 Ladbrokes in a race where he has very little to beat. At least half the field should have been put away for the year or retired, Kicking King looks a shadow of his former self and Mister Top Notch needs to improve and probably wants softer ground. That leaves Mossbank to beat.
I see you have your Kauto Star blinkers on again Fist. This is how I see it, all IMVHO of course.
Kauto Star is capable of very high class performances up to 3 miles round the likes of Kempton, Sandown Ascot etc. Around Cheltenham and even to an extent Haydock (and even Aintree this year ) his performances don’t match that level. Exotic Dancer’s overrated rating is largely based on his performances against Kauto Star at the latter courses. Around Kempton over 3M for instance he’s not within 10lbs of Kauto Star, neither for that matter is much else. In this years Gold Cup I believe KS ran as well if not better than the previous years poor Gold Cup field. There were possible excuses for ED at Cheltenham but at Aintree I’m not so sure. Were there any excuses that came out of JJO’N yard for the performance ? I would put Exotic dancer as a low 170’s horse. Neptune Collonges was rated in the low 160’s before the Gold Cup and seems to have run the race of his life. Is it too much to consider he could improve 10-12lbs on his previous rating ? I would put NC on a similar level to ED. With regard to Kauto Star and Denman well thats a tricky one. For me Kauto Star’s performances at Kempton probably give him the edge on overall rating at the moment but it is highly possible that Denman could change that view in time. Denman is certainly better at running slower over a distance in soft ground.
To be fair to Exotice Dancer he has run closer to Kauto Star of old, at level weights, than any other horse in training. He hasn’t run well since injuring his back and that in it’s own is as good as excuse as any. Any such unjury can take a long time to heal and sometimes they never do.
Like Kauto he’s tough and young so the chances are both horses will come back to their best next season.
I’ve never been happy with Kauto Star since Ascot and in the Ascot race itself he didn’t look the same horse to me that he did at Kempton. Heopefully this is a temporary thing and he’ll get over it.
I take pride in the fact is I never wear blinkers and while I have already backed Kauto for next years renewal I am doing so on a wing and a prayer.
If Denman and Kauto Star met at the start of the season I would bet Denman and if they never ran before the Gold Cup I would again back Denman.
What we saw at Kempton is the most breathtaking performance I have seen in years and Kauto will have to come back to that type of form to beat Denman even round a park course like Newbury.
On the ED, NC issue I don’t disagree with what you say about Kauto being around 10lbs superior to ED but that is nothing to be ashamed of as we are surly basing that on the King George form.
What I want to know is how much weight would NC have to give Exotic Dancer in the likes of the Hennessy.
We are talking about 2 horses who have finished 2nd and 3rd in a Gold Cup. One in a pretty normal gold cup and one in a race that turned out to suit the best stayers.
On a normal park course again let’s say the Hennessy..IMO Denman having to give 10 to 16lbs to a vey fit Exotic Dancer would be a very difficult thing to do.
I just can’t imagine NC being anywhere near as good as to beat Exotic Dancer and giving him 7lb to 12lbs.
The fact NC was only going to receive 3lbs for Kato Star at Sandown I am assuming NC would have to give away something like that to ED.
I would fancy ED at levels to beat Neptune Collonges and if he met him getting weights?
I will be pretty amazed of he has improved anything like the handicapper says and at 3lbs difference it just doesn’t look to have any sense to it whatsover.
So in conclusion
Exotic Dancer is overrated
Neptune Collonges LTO equalled any performance by ED, although I will say a rating of 178 is too high for me. Take 5 – 6 lbs off.
Kauto Star is better going right handed and its rating is justified on that form.
Denman is best at running slower and whose Gold Cup rating is as NC probably 5-6lbs too high.As mentioned at the top all IMVHO of course
I think Neptune Collonges is a penalty kick today and is the bet of the week. At a bigger price, I fancy New Alco to be placed.
I give Mossbank every chance in this – his form with both Denman and Our Vic stands plenty of scrutiny imo.
I also think the ground will suit him better than it will Neptune Collonges (who I still have down as a proper, old-time stayer). There’s a very slight question mark about the trip for Mossbank, but I think he should have no trouble getting home on this quicker going.
Mossbank has improved all season but his record at this stage of season is not great as in runs best fresh his form is pretty good but so is Neptunes who has had this race marked out for him all season…
i think Neptune will win this easy
i would love to see Kicking King run a big race, and hope Beef or Salmon comes back sound!!
The grey horse won well.
Jumping could have been better, but he had them beat a long way out.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Great ride to from Ruby and the second came to Punchestown of the back of a 2nd in the Grand National he must be one tough horse.
I just can’t see where NC go next season no doubt the Handicapper will hit him again for that win.
I see his OR was 178 before that…….will they put him up again?
Surely they are being way too hard on the horse?
Someone help me here if Denman Kauto Star Our Vic and Neptune were entered in the same handicap what would the weights be?
I just can’t see where NC go next season no doubt the Handicapper will hit him again for that win.
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Clearly a major player in the Gold Cup and wouldn’t surprise me at all to see him replace Kauto Star as the chief threat to Denman next season.
Great end to the season for connections after such a miserable start; well done Nipper!
I just can’t see where NC go next season no doubt the Handicapper will hit him again for that win.
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Clearly a major player in the Gold Cup and wouldn’t surprise me at all to see him replace Kauto Star as the chief threat to Denman next season.
If Kauto doesn’t come back to his best I wouldn’t argue, but surely that is a very big if’?
Let’s assume Kauto, who is still a young horse, comes back to his very best…….where then do you run NC apart from the Gold Cup which I agree is now a must.
It’s along time to wait for a horse that surely wouldn’t beat an on song Denman in the Gold Cup. Nor would he be gauanteed to beat Kauto Star if he ran to his best unless he improves bundles.
If he tried to do a Denman and go for the Hennessy he would no doubt run well in that but how much weight would Snowy Morning get from him?. You don’t know for a fact if Snowy Morning would have run better had he not ran in the National. He would be a big danger freshened up along with another few I could think of.
If Kauto and Denman get off to winning starts Nicholls will surely try to keep the 3 apart…but may not be able to if he is to be fair to NC.
I am in no way knocking the horse I just think he is going to be very hard to place
i say the best horse won and p$ssed over the race so fist egg on your face again maybe just maybe you will have the decency to stop slagging our horse anyway big party now nipper kicks ass big style…………WHOOP WHOOP……
Let’s be honest:
NC did what he should have done. He may have improved slightly this season, but what did he beat today?
Snowy morning by 7 lengths – who is a a solid stayer at best, but not a horse that is going to win top graded races imho.
KS is far superior to NC, and I would be confident of him thrashing NC in next season’s Gold Cup, even if Denman wins again.
Today was a good day if you wanted to get stuck into NC – price was a bit crappy, but after Twist Magic I guess PN fans were getting stuck in…
Now, on Fri we have a very interesting horse running…I’m trying to find out his price now.
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